Is this just coincidence? What do you think?
Let's compare the National Exit Poll Gender demographic to the
state polls.
There were four stages to the National Exit Poll.
The timeline is shown below.
There were 51 state exit polls, totaling 73,000 respondents,
also below. The state exit polls were posted at 12:22am.
I wanted to see if the Gender demographic for the weighted
state exit polls matched the National. The reason is that the
Gender demographic is the best overall measure of who won.
There are just two characteristics (male and female) and they
are asked the basic question: Who did you vote for? Very
simple.
Here's what I noticed: The horizontal sums for Kerry, Bush,
Nader/Other did not add to 100%, in all the states. I ran the
numbers and calculated a weighted vote total for Kerry, based
on the exit poll percentages multiplied by the weighted state
vote (state vote/total vote). Summing the weights gives
Kerry's true National Percentage.
As you might expect, since the individual state totals do not
all add to 100%, Kerry's weighted total is understated
(50.01%).
Compare this 50.01% to the 12:22am National exit poll
(50.80%).
So here's what I did. I allocated the differences to Kerry, so
that the horizontal totals =100% for Kerry+Bush+Nader. The
state-weighted Kerry Percentage is now 50.82%, within .04% of
the National 50.78%.
Now, here is the question:
Is the fact that the state percentages did not at first add to
100%, but after the differences were allocated to Kerry, the
state polls exactly matched the National Exit Poll, just a
coincidence?
What do you think?
ANALYSIS OF THE GENDER VOTE
National vs. State Exit Polls
NATIONAL EXIT POLL
Time Size KerryPct
4pm 8349 50.48
7:33pm 11027 50.78
12:22am 13047 50.78
1:25pm 13660 47.78
STATE EXIT POLLS
12:22am 72714
Total Pcts did not all add to 100% for Kerry+Bush+Nader
Wtd Avg 50.01
Unwtd Avg 48.28
Adding the difference to Kerry's totals to = 100%
Wtd Avg 50.82
Unwtd Avg 48.97
The weighted average now agrees with the Nat Exit Poll
Posted Totals<100% Posted Totals =100%
State Vote Size MoE Kerry VoteWtd Kerry Diff VoteWtd
AL 1.883 730 3.63% 40.5% 0.62% 41.4% 0.92% 0.64%
AK 0.312 910 3.25% 38.8% 0.10% 39.2% 0.48% 0.10%
AZ 2.013 1859 2.27% 46.7% 0.77% 47.2% 0.47% 0.78%
AR 1.056 1402 2.62% 46.1% 0.40% 46.7% 0.57% 0.40%
CA 12.392 919 3.23% 54.6% 5.54% 56.6% 1.96% 5.74%
CO 2.128 2515 1.95% 48.1% 0.84% 49.6% 1.47% 0.86%
CT 1.579 872 3.32% 57.7% 0.74% 57.6% -0.06% 0.74%
DC 0.227 795 3.48% 89.8% 0.17% 89.7% -0.12% 0.28%
DE 0.375 770 3.53% 57.3% 0.18% 58.3% 1.00% 0.11%
FL 7.604 2846 1.84% 49.7% 3.09% 49.7% 0.00% 3.09%
GA 3.299 1536 2.50% 42.9% 1.16% 43.4% 0.44% 1.17%
HA 0.429 499 4.39% 53.3% 0.19% 53.3% 0.00% 0.19%
ID 0.598 539 4.22% 32.9% 0.16% 34.3% 1.45% 0.17%
IL 5.275 1392 2.63% 56.6% 2.44% 57.6% 1.00% 2.49%
IN 2.468 926 4.39% 40.6% 0.82% 41.6% 1.00% 0.84%
IA 1.505 2502 4.22% 49.7% 0.61% 50.2% 0.46% 0.62%
KS 1.188 654 3.83% 34.1% 0.33% 34.6% 0.45% 0.34%
KY 1.796 1034 3.05% 40.2% 0.59% 41.2% 1.00% 0.61%
LA 1.939 1669 2.40% 43.9% 0.70% 44.9% 1.00% 0.71%
ME 0.741 1968 2.21% 53.8% 0.33% 54.2% 0.47% 0.33%
MD 2.384 1000 3.10% 56.2% 1.10% 57.2% 1.00% 1.12%
MA 2.905 869 3.32% 65.2% 1.55% 67.1% 1.96% 1.60%
MI 4.838 2452 1.98% 51.5% 2.04% 52.5% 1.00% 2.08%
MN 2.823 2178 2.10% 53.5% 1.24% 54.5% 1.00% 1.26%
MS 1.138 798 3.47% 43.0% 0.40% 43.0% 0.00% 0.40%
MO 2.731 2158 2.11% 47.0% 1.05% 48.0% 1.00% 1.07%
MT 0.450 640 3.87% 37.5% 0.14% 39.0% 1.51% 0.14%
NE 0.777 785 3.50% 36.0% 0.23% 36.0% 0.00% 0.23%
NV 0.826 2116 2.13% 49.2% 0.33% 50.2% 1.00% 0.34%
NH 0.676 1849 2.28% 54.9% 0.30% 55.0% 0.02% 0.30%
NJ 3.610 1520 2.56% 53.4% 1.58% 53.4% 0.00% 1.58%
NM 0.756 1951 2.22% 50.1% 0.31% 51.1% 1.00% 0.32%
NY 7.389 1476 2.55% 65.1% 3.94% 65.1% 0.00% 3.94%
NC 3.501 2099 2.14% 48.2% 1.38% 48.2% 0.00% 1.38%
ND 0.313 649 3.85% 32.6% 0.08% 33.6% 1.00% 0.09%
OH 5.625 1963 2.21% 52.1% 2.40% 52.1% 0.00% 2.40%
OK 1.464 1539 2.50% 34.6% 0.41% 35.0% 0.48% 0.42%
OR 1.828 1054 3.02% 50.3% 0.75% 52.2% 1.90% 0.78%
PA 5.766 1930 2.23% 54.1% 2.55% 54.7% 0.53% 2.58%
RI 0.436 809 3.45% 62.7% 0.22% 63.1% 0.47% 0.23%
SC 1.616 1935 2.23% 45.1% 0.60% 45.6% 0.43% 0.60%
SD 0.388 1495 2.53% 36.5% 0.12% 37.0% 0.51% 0.12%
TN 2.437 1774 2.33% 40.6% 0.81% 41.0% 0.48% 0.82%
TX 7.410 1671 2.40% 36.3% 2.20% 37.8% 1.46% 2.29%
UT 0.927 798 3.47% 29.1% 0.22% 30.0% 0.92% 0.23%
VT 0.311 685 3.74% 63.7% 0.16% 64.2% 0.55% 0.16%
VA 3.193 1432 2.59% 50.2% 1.31% 50.2% 0.00% 1.31%
WA 2.857 2123 2.13% 54.1% 1.27% 55.0% 0.86% 1.29%
WV 0.756 1722 2.36% 44.5% 0.28% 45.0% 0.47% 0.28%
WI 2.993 2223 2.08% 49.2% 1.21% 49.7% 0.47% 1.22%
WY 0.243 684 3.75% 30.9% 0.06% 32.5% 1.51% 0.06%
State Vote Size AvgMoE KAvg<100KWtd<100 KAvg Diff KWtd
Sum/Avg 122.171 72714 2.86% 48.47% 49.29% 49.17% 1.53% 50.82%