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The Exit Poll Gender Demographic: Another Smoking Gun?

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 08:44 PM
Original message
The Exit Poll Gender Demographic: Another Smoking Gun?
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 08:51 PM by TruthIsAll
Remember that stuff about how early women voters jacked up the
Kerry exit poll numbers?

And remember the argument that Exit Polls have a high MoE?

Let's proceed to demolish those two canards.

At 3:59pm, the first 8349 exit poll respondents were split 58%
female/42% male. And Kerry led the exit poll by 3%. 

So that's why the exit polls were out of whack and Kerry was
leading, right?
Wrong.

The split turned to 54/46  at 7:33pm, after 2629 additional
respondents, bringing the total to 10978.
And Kerry still led the exit poll by 3%.

The split was still 54/46  at 12.22am, after 2069 additional
respondents, bringing the total to 13047.
And Kerry still led the exit poll by 3%.

The split was still 54/46 at 2.05pm, after just 613 additional
respondents, bringing the final total to 13660.
And Kerry lost the exit poll by 3%.

And remember that other stuff about the high MoE in Exit
polls?

Well, Mitofsky's own table shows an MoE of 1% for samples over
8,000. 

http://www.mysterypollster.com/photos/uncategorized/nep_error.jpg

Guess what? The 1% MoE applied, even at the 3:59pm sample of
8349. Kerry's 3% lead was beyond the MoE right up until the
last 613 respondents.

So much for those two MSM/naysayer talking points.

......................................
11/2/04, 3:59pm, 8349 respondents 
MoE:1.09%	

      Bush	Kerry	Nader
M	42%	51%	47%	2%
F	58%	45%	53%	2%
	100%	47.52%	50.48%	2.00%
	122.26	58.10	61.72	2.45
	Kerry Margin	3.62	million votes	


11/2/04, 7:33pm, 11027 respondents 
MoE:0.95%
	Bush	Kerry	Nader
M	46%	51%	47%	2%
F	54%	45%	54%	1%

	100%	47.76%	50.78%	1.46%
	122.26	58.39	62.08	1.78
	Kerry Margin	3.69	million votes	
				

				
11/03/04, 12:22am, 13047 respondents			
MoE: 0.88%	
     Bush	Kerry	Nader
M	46%	52%	47%	1%
F	54%	45%	54%	1%

	100%	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%
	122.26	58.95	62.08	1.22
	Kerry Margin	3.13	million votes	
				
				

11/3/04, 2:05pm, 13660 respondents			
MoE:	?

     Bush	Kerry	Nader
M	46%	55%	44%	1%
F	54%	48%	51%	1%

	100%	51.22%	47.78%	1.00%
	122.26	62.62	58.42	1.22
	Kerry Margin	-4.21	million votes	
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
1. Too late to edit: Fixing the headings
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 10:56 PM by TruthIsAll
11/2/04, 3:59pm, 8349 respondents 
MoE:1.09%	

      Mix    Bush	Kerry	Nader
M	42%	51%	47%	2%
F	58%	45%	53%	2%

	100%	47.52%	50.48%	2.00%
	122.26	58.10	61.72	2.45
	Kerry Margin	3.62	million votes	


11/2/04, 7:33pm, 11027 respondents 
MoE:0.95%
	Mix    Bush	Kerry	Nader
M	46%	51%	47%	2%
F	54%	45%	54%	1%

	100%	47.76%	50.78%	1.46%
	122.26	58.39	62.08	1.78
	Kerry Margin	3.69	million votes	
				

				
11/03/04, 12:22am, 13047 respondents			
MoE: 0.88%	
     Mix     Bush	Kerry	Nader
M	46%	52%	47%	1%
F	54%	45%	54%	1%

	100%	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%
	122.26	58.95	62.08	1.22
	Kerry Margin	3.13	million votes	
			


11/3/04, 2:05pm, 13660 respondents			
MoE:	?

     Mix     Bush	Kerry	Nader
M	46%	55%	44%	1%
F	54%	48%	51%	1%

	100%	51.22%	47.78%	1.00%
	122.26	62.62	58.42	1.22
	Kerry Margin	-4.21	million votes	
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 06:46 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. No Reply: Beatles '65
.
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-27-05 01:33 AM
Response to Original message
3. kick.nt
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