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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 01:01 AM
Original message
TIMELINE
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 01:30 AM by TruthIsAll
National Exit Poll Timeline:

11/2/04, 3:59pm 8349 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48
The margin of error for 8349 =1.09%
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3737_PRES04...

11/2/04, 7:33pm 11027 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48
The margin of error for 11027 =0.95%
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3798_PRES04...

11/3/04, 12:22am 13047 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48
The margin of error for 13047 =0.88%
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

11/3/04, 1:25pm 13660 respondents: Kerry 48-Bush 51
The margin of error for 13660 = ?
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3970_PRES04...


National Exit Poll Margin of Error Table


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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 01:04 AM
Response to Original message
1. But when were they weighted?
Before 12:22 a.m. or after?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 01:16 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. The time of weighting is the time noted at the top of each screen
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 01:21 AM by TruthIsAll
The earlier weightings matched to ?

The final 1:25 weighting matched to the votes.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 07:27 PM
Response to Reply #3
13. GRAPH
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 01:13 AM
Response to Original message
2. The time that they were weighted....
Is especially important...my friend and others have said, there was a computer keeping track of these results knocked offline.

If we knew the exact time these results were put in, and closer to what time the computer and exit polls went out I think we could get a good answer very quick.
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 02:13 AM
Response to Original message
4. Please answer a stupid question one more time for me
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 02:42 AM by Nothing Without Hope
The last two time points are:

11/3/04, 12:22am 13047 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48
The margin of error for 13047 =0.88%

11/3/04, 1:25pm 13660 respondents: Kerry 48-Bush 51
The margin of error for 13660 = ?


Does this mean that 613 votes were added to 13047 votes and suddenly the numbers flipped from 51/48 for Kerry to 51/48 for Bush? A 3% margin in 13660 votes is 410 votes (the number is iffy because of rounding).

On recalculation, I think I got this far OK, but then I made a mistake. The repost took it farther and I hope it's correct. My math skills this late at night are just not functioning very well.
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 02:26 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. OK, I've recalculated another way for the last two points
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 02:39 AM by Nothing Without Hope
At 11/3/04, 12:22 am, there were 13047 with a 390 margin (rounded) for KERRY

At 11/3/04 at 1:25pm, there were 13660 - which is 613 more votes added to the total.
at that time there was a 410 margin for BUSH.

This means ALL of the mysterious added 613 votes would have had to be for Bush, and even THEN there would not have been enough to make up the Bush deficit from the previous point and take the total to the stated 51/48 Bush final point. That would have taken 390+410= 800, which is

impossible



Is this correct? Is this how you see it? Is there something else going on? This doesn't make sense!
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 03:08 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. You hit the nail on the head.
Now imagine it happen in every single precinct.

Dominionists have declared war on democracy, we have to spread the official message of this cooked fake ploy everywhere.

Robert Kohler of the mainstream media is now involved, there must be a huge number in all these defectors out there waking up.

Only chance of real reform lies in the revolution, taking back the country from these false obstructionists.

Anyone know how many channels they can reach to expose the Baker/Carter commission? This must be seen as a total planted sham!

http://www.velvetrevolution.us

It must create live protests everywhere, and get people enraged at this deceit. Just like in germany, now is not the time to sit down.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 10:40 AM
Response to Reply #4
10. You have made no mistake. Its 3rd grade arithmetic.
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 10:41 AM by TruthIsAll
Yes, you are right.
It makes no sense.

Then again, nothing in the final 13660 makes any sense.
That's because...the FINAL Exit poll weights and percentages were forced to match the vote.

And therefore the recorded vote makes no sense.
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 03:29 AM
Response to Original message
7. It's not just the numbers, it's the breakouts into groups that says it:
Kerry won, and he won just the way we expected him to.

What follows is NOT new information, but I just worked my own way through the breakdowns in TIA's post of an easy-to-read pdf file of the 11/2/04, 7:33 pm data. These were posted in another of his threads here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
Thread title: U.S. General Election Poll-7:37pm,11/02/04: "Estimates NOT for on-air use"

There were many breakouts, but these were the ones that caught my eye. Look them over and think about them, if like me you haven't done it before:

In each group of five numbers, the first number is the PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL VOTES ANALYZED, the second is % votes for KERRY, the third is % votes for BUSH, and the fourth is % votes for NADER. (TIA thinks the fifth number, labeled Rep2000," is probably the difference in % Bush votes compared to 2000)

Total votes: 51% Kerry, 48% Bush, 1% Nader.
Females were pro-Kerry (9% margin) while males were more narrowly pro-Bush (4% margin)
Number of Interviews - 11,027
Vote Estimate Not for On-Air Use
100 51 48 1 -
Are you: (n=10,978)
Male 46 47 51 1 -2
Female 54 54 45 1 2


Kerry won STRONGLY among first-time voters (13% margin), who represented 11% of the total votes. In this analysis, Kerry also won among the respondents who had voted before (2% margin)
Is this the first time you have ever voted? (n=5,430)
Yes 11 56 43 - 0
No 89 50 48 1 0


Self-described independents made up 26% of total and went for Kerry (7% margin). There were slightly more Dems than Repubs (38% vs 36%) and both went strongly for their partys candidate.
No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a:(n=10,553)
Democrat 38 90 9 1 -2
Republican 36 7 92 0 1
Independent or something else 26 52 45 2 -2


People deciding on their choice in the last month (15% of total) went more for Kerry. People who decided before that (79%) were evenly divided, 50/50.
When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election? (n=6,856)
Just today 6 53 40 5 -
In the last three days 3 53 41 4 -
Sometime last week 2 48 51 1 -
During the last month 10 60 38 1 -
Before that 79 50 50 0


Here is the breakdown by four sections of the country. Kerry won by 18% margin in the East and by an 8% margin in the West; Bush won by a 1% margin in the Midwest, and Bush won by a 9% margin in the South.
National Region (n=11,027)
East 22 58 40 1 1
Midwest 25 50 49 1 0
South 31 45 54 1 -1
West 21 53 45 1 -1


Kerry won by a 19% margins in larger cities (pop. over 50,000) and by a 1% margin in suburbs; Bush won by an 8% margin in small cities and rural populations.
Population of area, three categories (n=9,027)
City over 50 thousand 30 59 40 1 5
Suburbs 45 50 49 1 0
Small city and Rural 24 45 53 1 -6


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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 05:36 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. Kick for the Number Crunchers!
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Sancho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 06:32 AM
Response to Original message
9. TIA has definitely made this easy to understand...
M-E are really blowing smoke to put out a report "explaining" the results, all they have to do is photocopy the interview sheets or download the raw data, etc. There's no question that M-E knows which locations were polled and exact counts of demographics from those coming out who weren't polled. They usually count down and try to interview every 10th WM or 15th BF or whatever...

So they KNOW what happened, and don't want to release anything (until they massage the data?). I suspect that IF there weren't the "don't release" exposure of the data, they'd have already done that...but now it would be clear if something didn't fit what's already out there. Makes me think that M-E has some high level pressure and some serious question of their honesty in the whole mess. Since their report was clearly a fake explanation (to me), they are going a long way to cover up.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
11. How voted in 2000: compare to Bush maximum and calculated MoE
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 11:29 AM by TruthIsAll
How voted 2000 (as percent of 2004 total vote):

Maximum possible for Bush = 39.82%, 
assuming 100% turnout and 0.87% annual death rate

MoE = 1.96*sqrt(.4*.6)/n)

n       MoE Bush
8324 respondents, n=1916 replied to this question:

1916    2.19% 42% (impossible, but barely inside MoE) 
39.82+  2.19= 42.01

11027 respondents, n=2545 replied:

2545	1.90% 41% (impossible, but inside MoE) 
39.82+  1.90 =41.72%

13660 respondents, n=3168 replied:

3168	1.71% 43% (impossible, outside MoE) 
39.82+  1.71= 41.53
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 06:17 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. I dont know what the big deal is-- I know Kerry won >wink
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 06:50 PM
Response to Original message
14. Time is on our side (yes it is). The Rolling Stones Cry Out
.
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