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U.S. General Election Poll-7:37pm,11/02/04: "Estimates NOT for on-air use"

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 11:27 PM
Original message
U.S. General Election Poll-7:37pm,11/02/04: "Estimates NOT for on-air use"
Edited on Mon Apr-18-05 11:31 PM by TruthIsAll
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 11:39 PM
Response to Original message
1. How convenient! The truth will out!
Edited on Mon Apr-18-05 11:40 PM by autorank
I am amazed on an ongoing basis by your work, which is so persuasive and compelling BECAUSE it's based on data that you have to acquire without a cooperating client(s). If there were nothing to hide, everybody accused would open all doors, make available all documents and data, and cooperate fully in a colloquy with you, Steve Freeman, etc.

That's all the proof I need, unwilling election officials and pollsters plus your exquisite work and that of your colleagues in the election fraud movement. History (hopefully in the very near future) will smile on this work.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. This is nothing new.
I have used the 7:38, 11027 poll posted on CNN in many posts.

But this is the first time I have seen the link to this easy-to-read .pdf file.
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Is there any way
To seperate this down into sections by precinct or polling area?
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rumpel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Interesting also on the other races as suspected. Thank you.
Edited on Mon Apr-18-05 11:46 PM by rumpel
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 12:26 AM
Response to Original message
5. NEP BUSH APPROVAL: ANOTHER SMOKING GUN?
In the first 11027 Exit Poll respondents, the Bush Approval
question was answered by n=5666 respondents. 

Bush Approval
	 Mix   Bush	Kerry	Nader
Approve	51%	88%	11%	1%
Dissap	48%	5%	93%	1%

Total	  99%	47.28%	50.25%	0.99%
Votes	  120.5  57.8 61.44	1.21

The MoE for 5666 respondents = 1.33%


The average of 11 final Pre-election polls had Bush approval
at 48.5%. Assuming that statistic, Kerry won by almost 10
MILLION VOTES.

Bush Approval
	  Mix  Bush	Kerry	Nader
Approve	48.5%	88%	11%	1%
Dissap	51.5%	5%	93%	2%

Total	  100%	45.26%	53.23%	1.52%
Votes 122.2   55.33 65.08 1.85

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drm604 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 12:30 AM
Response to Original message
6. TIA, you may already be aware of this...
but if you look at the directory listing you'll see that there are actually 3 different PDFs available. Just glancing at them, they look like snapshots from different times during the day.
Any idea what the source of these is? How did they leak out?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 12:41 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. I don't know and I don't care.
.
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 01:28 AM
Response to Original message
8. This is amazing, TIA! I took a closer look at some of the breakouts:
It's so clear that not only did Kerry win, he won exactly the way we expected him to.

In each group of five numbers, the first number is the PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL VOTES ANALYZED, the second is % votes for KERRY, the third is % votes for BUSH, and the fourth is % votes for NADER. (What does the fifth number mean, TIA? Its code explanation is Rep2000)

Total votes: 51% Kerry, 48% Bush, 1% Nader.
Females were pro-Kerry (9% margin) while males were more narrowly pro-Bush (4% margin)
Number of Interviews - 11,027
Vote Estimate Not for On-Air Use
100 51 48 1 -
Are you: (n=10,978)
Male 46 47 51 1 -2
Female 54 54 45 1 2


Kerry won STRONGLY among first-time voters (13% margin), who represented 11% of the total votes. In this analysis, Kerry also won among the respondents who had voted before (2% margin)
Is this the first time you have ever voted? (n=5,430)
Yes 11 56 43 - 0
No 89 50 48 1 0


Self-described independents made up 26% of total and went for Kerry (7% margin). There were slightly more Dems than Repubs (38% vs 36%) and both went strongly for their partys candidate.
No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a:(n=10,553)
Democrat 38 90 9 1 -2
Republican 36 7 92 0 1
Independent or something else 26 52 45 2 -2


People deciding on their choice in the last month (15% of total) went more for Kerry. People who decided before that (79%) were evenly divided, 50/50.
When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election? (n=6,856)
Just today 6 53 40 5 -
In the last three days 3 53 41 4 -
Sometime last week 2 48 51 1 -
During the last month 10 60 38 1 -
Before that 79 50 50 0


Here is the breakdown by four sections of the country. Kerry won by 18% margin in the East and by an 8% margin in theWest; Bush won by a 1% margin in the Midwest, and Bush won by a 9% margin in the South.
National Region (n=11,027)
East 22 58 40 1 1
Midwest 25 50 49 1 0
South 31 45 54 1 -1
West 21 53 45 1 -1


Kerry won by a 19% margins in larger cities (pop. over 50,000) and by a 1% margin in suburbs; Bush won by an 8% margin in small cities and rural populations.
Population of area, three categories (n=9,027)
City over 50 thousand 30 59 40 1 5
Suburbs 45 50 49 1 0
Small city and Rural 24 45 53 1 -6


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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 01:33 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. The final column looks like the % Bush change from 2000..
.
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 01:42 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. TIA, I've just PMed you about this. These breakdowns are strong stuff.
Let me know if you want me to send you a Word file of what I posted here or if you want me to post it in any other DU thread.

Sure enough, the first-time voters were 11% of the total votes and they went for Kerry by a 13% margin. And so did the independents, 26% of the total voters and a 7% Kerry margin. The total votes from the 11,000 respondents were for Kerry by a 3% margin, but it's all the breakdowns that make it really hit home. It all happened exactly the way we thought it did, before the fraud machines was switched on. And this is IN SPITE of the voter suppression by the long lines, misdirections, and other "dirty tricks."
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 01:52 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. That sounds like a whistle blower statement..
Any chance on reading a full report about what you guys found out sometime soon?

Could it be that the 2000 results really became the main machine to make "up" the 2004 results like my friend has been saying....
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 01:56 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. TIA is the only one doing this - I'm just noticing some things for myself
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 01:58 AM by Nothing Without Hope
for the first time because the pdfs are easy to read. TIA has been working on all these numbers and more, far more, for MONTHS. I cannot take any credit whatsoever. TIA has been telling us what happened in these polls in tables of numbes and in graphs and in summary statements for all this time. I accepted that the exit polls are a smoking gun - the statistical experts have been saying this too. But this is fhe first time I've gone through these more readable tables for myself.
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 03:26 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. Did you happen to notice....
How the numbers for these exit polls are representing samples taken from year 2000 data?

Did you happen to see that the 2004 results are just like slightly increased, and only changed in certain cities in the USA?

Like a buddy of mine has been saying, it was kept and recycled over from the year 2000 because thats what the US Cencus departments almost always do to minimize the margins of error..
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 01:51 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. That's interesting - only place with a real rise was in the big cities
The only place where Bush votes went UP in 2004 compared to 2000 (by 5%) was in the big cities in the final breakout I listed. It's striking to see how consistently his votes either stayed within 1% of the 2000 numbers or dropped. That seems significant to me. Is this a sign of dirty tricks at play in keeping Kerry voters away from the polls in big cities?
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