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This Jan 3 post on the IMPOSSIBLE Bush 43%/37% NEP weight is NOT from me!

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 02:46 AM
Original message
This Jan 3 post on the IMPOSSIBLE Bush 43%/37% NEP weight is NOT from me!
Edited on Sun Apr-17-05 03:29 AM by TruthIsAll
It's a VERY IMPORTANT THREAD.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Although I've been focusing on the impossible 43% Bush 2000 voter weighting in the final exit poll, this magical number was the subject of a thread back on Jan 3. DUers Chorti and Skids gave it a thorough analysis way back then.

Naysayers, take notice:
The 43% re-weighting is impossible.
Bush would have needed 52.57 million votes in 2000.
But he only had 50.456 million.
And only 48.69 million of them were alive on election day.

Do you now believe your lying eyes?

To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe that:
1) 1.75 million DEAD Bush 2000 voters came back to life,
2) ALL LIVING Bush 2000 voters came back to vote,
3) 2 million PHANTOMS from who knows where came to vote.
That's a total of 52.57 million.

To win by 3 million votes, Bush 2000 voter turnout had to be 108%.
In other words, his vote total of 62 million was overstated by at least 4 million.

That means Bush actually had just 62-4 = 58 million votes.

Those 4 million votes had to come from someone else.
We can assume 98% of them came from Kerry.

That means Kerry actually had 59+4 = 63 million votes.




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The Doctor. Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 03:20 AM
Response to Original message
1. Thanks again.
Edited on Sun Apr-17-05 03:23 AM by Dr_eldritch
So how much of your research have you sent to the House Judiciary Committee and John Conyers?

Peer reviewed?

(It's late - so I'll take a look tomorrow.)

Thank you for all of your painstaking research.
History e-texts will be mentioning you.
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 02:09 AM
Response to Reply #1
16. kick
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 06:33 AM
Response to Original message
2. Truthisall your tenacity amazes me.
I've stopped pushing this issue because I felt nothing would be done. But you keep going and going. Keep it up, persistence is hard to fight.
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #2
12. Impossible alright.
Implausible and totally unbelievable. Magna Carta.
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 07:52 AM
Response to Original message
3. The story I like is the miracle of the "Exurbs & People of Faith."
In Ohio (and across the U.S.) the Rove story is being sold as all those
rich repugs in the big homes outside the cities and people of faith voted
in record #s. Even though * showed weakness in both groups as a whole.
Females and Christians who belief in a Jesus who helps those in need.


Stay at it.
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keepthemhonest Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 08:13 AM
Response to Original message
4. I don't believe my lying eyes
I can think of two people in my family that voted for Bush the first time and this time did not. I did not find any new Bush voters amongt the people I talked to, just to personalize your statistics.

I agree with the above posters that your pesistance will pay off.TruthIsAll,you keep us all motivated and remind me of the trusty exit polls that brought me into this is the first place.

Your truth will be heard!
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KaliTracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 12:34 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. yep -- I know some who changed their voting from * to Kerry at least from
what they discussed and usually the War (and the lies surrounding it) were the "last straw" -- but don't know of any that were Independents or Dems going for *
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keepthemhonest Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 02:15 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. so where did bush get all those new voters from
and the voters to replace the ones he lost.

Go TruthIsALll!
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KaliTracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. um.... maybe that's why they want to explore Mars -- to say that any new
life forms are * supporters.... invisible to the naked eye.
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keepthemhonest Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 04:50 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. I heard Bush wants to send astronauts to the sun too
when everyone sounded surprised he said,Duh ,we wouldn't send them during the day.

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KaliTracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. LOL
:rofl:
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 03:14 PM
Response to Original message
7. Where did the 43%/37% come from; I haven't seen anyone who
Edited on Sun Apr-17-05 04:13 PM by berniew1
said that was what was used by the Exit poll people?
I thought they used 37/37 final

Does anyone know the official number of Repubs and Dems nationwide?
It should be available since it available for each state.

In Florida the breakout is:

Rep Dem Other Total
3,892,492 4,261,249 2,147,549 10,301,290

37.8% 41.4% 20.8%

Florida is a state with majority Dem registration, but the elections and vote counting mostly by Repub, and Repubs "winning" most elections. But Repubs do also have by far the most contributions and thus the most advertising. The Dems don't have enough money anymore to field candidates in most counties, concentrate on big statewide races. Seems everyone thinks the only way to win these days is negative attacks on TV.
Biggest trend in Florida is to "other"

So how the "others" vote decides the elections.
Does anyone know what the exit polls said about other in Florida
in 2004, (or 2000 for that matter)












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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 04:52 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. Bernie, this is NOT Party ID. This is the How Voted in 2000 demographic.
Edited on Sun Apr-17-05 04:57 PM by TruthIsAll
They are two completely different categories.

CNN Final Exit Poll
2:05pm Nov 3, 13660 Respondents
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/U...

NEP/WP Preliminary Exit Poll
12:22am Nov 3, 13047 Respondents
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The extremely implausible 41% ratio of Bush 2000 voters to the 122.26 2004 voters (for the first 13047 respondents) was changed TO AN IMPOSSIBLE 43% of the Final 13660 in order to match the Bush vote. Bush only had 50.456 mm votes in 2000.

Likewise, Party ID weightings were ALSO changed from 38Dem/35Rep in the first 13047 to 37/37 in the Final 13660 to MATCH THE VOTE.

This just proves that The Final exit poll of 13660 respondents is bogus.

OTOH, the 13047 poll, which Kerry is a winner by 51-48, is very close to being correct. In fact, since the 41/39 mix is obviously incorrect as well (probabily should be 39 Bush/40 Kerry), that means Kerry's margin was even higher than 3%.

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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 09:59 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. Did you ever figure out what the New Zealand exit poll data is?
Scoop?
Is it useful for something?


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mgr Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. It was the first glimpse taken of what NEP was forwarding their customers
It affected numerous assumptions about the exit poll, one is the fact that the numbers observed from CNN on election day were already weighted, and not raw numbers.

Its utility is slight now that NEP's raw data is available.

Mike
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ihelpu2see Donating Member (935 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 10:59 PM
Response to Reply #10
15. So when does this all "Hit the Fan" or will it ever.
With the US Counts the Vote paper and the obvious EP adjusting that happened. Will there ever be the truth shown to the American public??? I would hope it would be sooner than later. These neocons are ruining the United States!!
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-19-05 04:31 PM
Response to Reply #15
18. when Oliver Stone makes a movie about it n/t
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-17-05 10:28 PM
Response to Original message
14. Kick
for the impossibility.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 06:54 PM
Response to Original message
19. Thank Chorti and Skids for this one.
.
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-27-05 01:32 AM
Response to Original message
20. kick,nt
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