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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 11:08 AM Original message |
Are these Florida Precinct Reports a smoking gun or not? |
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Mr Rabble (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 11:29 AM Response to Original message |
1. how people still argue |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 11:39 AM Response to Original message |
2. Well...I'd imagine the chances of that happening randomly... |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 11:42 AM Response to Original message |
3. I Can't Seem to Find Them on the Site |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 12:27 PM Response to Reply #3 |
4. Use the drop down list to list the county |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 12:40 PM Response to Reply #4 |
5. The percentages that match are |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 12:51 PM Response to Reply #5 |
6. Just a thought |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:02 PM Response to Reply #6 |
7. Let's analyze this - |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:09 PM Response to Reply #7 |
8. Sure |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:15 PM Response to Reply #8 |
9. I did want an answer and I didn't get it |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:29 PM Response to Reply #9 |
13. Here it is |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:42 PM Response to Reply #13 |
21. I really do not see how |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:00 PM Response to Reply #21 |
24. Not a problem |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:19 PM Response to Reply #7 |
10. Once again, qwghlmian, you go are off in left field. |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:21 PM Response to Reply #10 |
11. Read what I wrote - |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:35 PM Response to Reply #11 |
16. You must account for two improbabilities - and you fail to do so. |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:38 PM Response to Reply #16 |
18. Deleted message |
TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:42 PM Response to Reply #18 |
20. THE ADJACENT PRECINCT NUMBERS. HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN IT? |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:45 PM Response to Reply #20 |
22. Deleted message |
TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:09 PM Response to Reply #22 |
28. FEELING SMART RIGHT NOW? JUST CALCULATE THIS FOR US. |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:12 PM Response to Reply #28 |
30. Deleted message |
TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:24 PM Response to Reply #30 |
38. IS THAT YOUR ANSWER? COMPUTE THE PROBABILITY. |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:26 PM Response to Reply #38 |
40. As I said - |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:36 PM Response to Reply #40 |
43. OH, I SEE YOU HAVE HIT A WALL. YOU ARE BACKTRACKING. |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:39 PM Response to Reply #43 |
45. What facts that are in evidence? |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:53 PM Response to Reply #45 |
49. Go ahead. Show me. Point it out. Oh, we are off by TWO. |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:07 PM Response to Reply #49 |
53. dupe delete |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:08 PM Response to Reply #49 |
54. You are getting ridiculous. |
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mgr (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:23 PM Response to Reply #28 |
37. Poisson or gravity model? n/t |
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mgr (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:30 PM Response to Reply #28 |
59. A little set theory problem (sixth grade math I believe) |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 05:15 PM Response to Reply #59 |
72. Any chance you could come up with a number... |
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mgr (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 11:24 AM Response to Reply #72 |
124. Yeah, I could not get in. |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 12:40 PM Response to Reply #124 |
135. Thank you Mike! |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 12:54 PM Response to Reply #135 |
138. Chi, look at post # 132. |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 01:12 PM Response to Reply #138 |
139. :), yes, Chi, look at post #132 |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 01:47 PM Response to Reply #139 |
140. (Chi reaches for his stun gun)..... |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 02:34 PM Response to Reply #140 |
143. Instead reach for my post # 141. Make it 3800. And the prob is still low |
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mgr (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:10 PM Response to Reply #22 |
29. Actually, I think those odds are lower |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:16 PM Response to Reply #29 |
33. I was going by the original poster's findings |
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mgr (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:21 PM Response to Reply #33 |
35. This is why I keep saying map the data |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:26 PM Response to Reply #5 |
12. Short explanation (tinfoil hat back on) |
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abbiehoff (356 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:35 PM Response to Reply #12 |
17. Although these are reported as precinct numbers, |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:05 PM Response to Reply #17 |
26. Very interesting possibility!!... |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:40 PM Response to Reply #12 |
19. read my analysis of your findings |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:03 PM Response to Reply #19 |
25. Thanks |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:08 PM Response to Reply #25 |
27. Yes, if it is, other states should have similar results |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:34 PM Response to Reply #27 |
41. Basic math |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:38 PM Response to Reply #41 |
44. See my corrected analysis - |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:31 PM Response to Reply #4 |
60. Correction |
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brindis_desala (866 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:33 PM Response to Original message |
14. If memory serves a DUer found similar "twins" in OHIO. |
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mgr (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:53 PM Response to Reply #14 |
23. Mean one voting station serving two precincts? |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:12 PM Response to Reply #23 |
31. Repub numbers don't match.... |
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mgr (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:15 PM Response to Reply #31 |
32. You're right |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:26 PM Response to Reply #14 |
39. If memory serves me right |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:01 PM Response to Reply #39 |
52. Possible |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:10 PM Response to Reply #52 |
55. Actually 8) |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 01:33 PM Response to Original message |
15. It's Taking Me Awhile to Understand What is Being Suspected |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:20 PM Response to Reply #15 |
34. Established Patterns can be a sign of manipulation |
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On the Road (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:48 PM Response to Reply #34 |
48. That's What is Suggested to Me |
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Iceburg (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:22 PM Response to Original message |
36. You need to clarify a few points... |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:40 PM Response to Reply #36 |
46. Clarified |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:35 PM Response to Original message |
42. Corrected analysis |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:47 PM Response to Reply #42 |
47. "Around" 25%? Where is the calculation? Be specific. |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 02:55 PM Response to Reply #47 |
50. It's simple probabilities TIA |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:42 PM Response to Reply #50 |
61. IT'S TIME FOR YOU TO GIVE UP THE GHOST. HERE ARE THE REAL PROBABILITIES |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:47 PM Response to Reply #61 |
63. Deleted message |
TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:50 PM Response to Reply #63 |
64. Prove that I am wrong. |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:51 PM Response to Reply #64 |
67. See post #50. I showed you that you're wrong. |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:55 PM Response to Reply #67 |
70. No, you showed DU why anything you say from here on is of no consequence |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:51 PM Response to Reply #63 |
68. LOL |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:00 PM Response to Reply #42 |
51. I think your oversimplifying |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:11 PM Response to Reply #51 |
56. Deleted message |
Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:19 PM Response to Reply #56 |
57. Please don't do that. |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:29 PM Response to Reply #57 |
58. First of all, I would presume that they are numbered |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:45 PM Response to Reply #58 |
62. Agreed, kinda |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:50 PM Response to Reply #62 |
65. As I showed, it really does not matter if sequentially |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 05:44 PM Response to Reply #65 |
73. Disagree |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 05:54 PM Response to Reply #73 |
74. They are not the same - they *are* lower - |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 06:10 PM Response to Reply #74 |
75. OK |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 06:36 PM Response to Reply #75 |
77. I don't think you understand how this works then... |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 06:48 PM Response to Reply #77 |
79. Well, I've certainly found our root problem 8) |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 07:03 PM Response to Reply #79 |
81. Deleted message |
TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 06:31 PM Response to Reply #74 |
76. qwghlmian, where have you gone? I have something for you.. |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 06:42 PM Response to Reply #76 |
78. Here - let's use your method, but try to be honest with the numbers. |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 07:03 PM Response to Reply #78 |
80. Ya know he's gonna say it when he comes back |
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Iceburg (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 08:10 PM Response to Reply #78 |
82. I agree with you in principle about factoring in both D and Rs |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 08:24 PM Response to Reply #82 |
83. Take a big county - Dade or Brevard etc, |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 08:41 PM Response to Reply #78 |
85. You originally said prob (match) = 0.1% and 1900 precincts |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 08:50 PM Response to Reply #85 |
86. Deleted message |
Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 08:59 PM Response to Reply #86 |
88. Deleted message |
Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 09:17 PM Response to Reply #88 |
89. Deleted message |
TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 10:17 PM Response to Reply #89 |
93. Get over it. You lost and Bush lost. Go to post # 90. |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:50 PM Response to Reply #58 |
66. Yes, sequential |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 03:54 PM Response to Reply #66 |
69. I stand corrected, and so does my memory. |
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mgr (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 10:53 AM Response to Reply #66 |
119. When you have all of it on a map PM me please. |
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Iceburg (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 04:42 PM Response to Reply #58 |
71. The poster clarified my question on this .... |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 08:41 PM Response to Original message |
84. Simulation to attempt to answer this question |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 08:54 PM Response to Reply #84 |
87. Deleted message |
TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 10:09 PM Response to Reply #87 |
91. I PROVED YOU WRONG TWO WAYS: BINOM FUNCTION AND 100 RANDOM NO. SIMULATIONS |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 10:30 PM Response to Reply #91 |
94. LOL |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 11:01 PM Response to Reply #94 |
96. Well, how did you like that little random number generator? |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 11:09 PM Response to Reply #96 |
97. I can show you work of PhDs that says |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 07:07 AM Response to Reply #97 |
106. Back to talking points? "Exit polls are not designed..." blah, blah, blah |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 08:21 AM Response to Reply #106 |
109. "Name them"? Here: |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 11:53 AM Response to Reply #109 |
129. Fine. Now a question. |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 12:34 PM Response to Reply #129 |
133. What does that have to do with anything? |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 08:00 PM Response to Reply #133 |
147. Deleted message |
TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 10:06 AM Response to Reply #147 |
163. Did YOUR Phd"s SPECIFICALLY REFUTE uscountvotes.org's latest paper? |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 10:18 AM Response to Reply #163 |
165. Did your PhDs SPECIFICALLY REFUTE |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 10:28 AM Response to Reply #165 |
166. Now you are really going off the wall. Your reply speaks for itself. |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 11:00 AM Response to Reply #166 |
172. ROTFLMAO - |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 11:36 AM Response to Reply #172 |
175. I think it would be respectful to adolfo to take this to another thread. |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 11:43 AM Response to Reply #175 |
176. Deleted message |
Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 11:47 AM Response to Reply #176 |
177. If it's pointless, why keep it going here then. |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 11:51 AM Response to Reply #177 |
178. Deleted message |
Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 11:59 AM Response to Reply #178 |
179. So your purpose in this thread is to ridicule TIA? |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 12:04 PM Response to Reply #179 |
180. Deleted message |
Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 12:13 PM Response to Reply #180 |
181. Since your purpose is to ridicule... |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 12:23 PM Response to Reply #181 |
182. Deleted message |
Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 12:44 PM Response to Reply #182 |
184. What about the rest of us DUmmies? |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 12:50 PM Response to Reply #184 |
185. Don't understand the question - |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 12:58 PM Response to Reply #185 |
186. The question is, do you care about anyone else? |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 01:10 PM Response to Reply #186 |
187. Deleted message |
Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 01:13 PM Response to Reply #187 |
188. Post 175 |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 01:23 PM Response to Reply #188 |
189. Full circle.. |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 01:38 PM Response to Reply #187 |
190. You asked me how amusing yourself ridiculing TIA affects others.. |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 01:45 PM Response to Reply #190 |
191. Instead of DUmmie, |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 01:47 PM Response to Reply #191 |
192. Feel free to amuse yourself ridiculing me.....have at it.. 8) |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-09-05 03:53 AM Response to Reply #192 |
194. 100 simulation trials: avg 8 match/trial , prob (14 matches) = 1 in 29 |
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Iceburg (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-09-05 08:07 AM Response to Reply #194 |
195. If the distribution of the ratio "votes/registration" is not normal |
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Iceburg (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-09-05 09:07 AM Response to Reply #195 |
196. Normalcy test results ... |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-09-05 10:06 AM Response to Reply #196 |
198. Link |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-09-05 09:08 AM Response to Reply #194 |
197. Should be easy to come up with more twins |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-09-05 10:34 AM Response to Reply #197 |
199. Simulations: 150-300 votes; 200-400 reg: prob (>=14)= 1 in 13000 |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-09-05 11:16 AM Response to Reply #199 |
200. Widening the range: Votes 100-300; Reg 200-600 (4 matches) |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-09-05 11:19 AM Response to Reply #200 |
201. V 100-300; R 200-800: 5 matches |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-09-05 11:27 AM Response to Reply #201 |
202. Votes: 100-400; Reg: 200-1200; 7 matches |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-09-05 11:54 AM Response to Reply #202 |
203. One last time: to show all precincts up to the first match.. |
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Iceburg (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-09-05 01:07 PM Response to Reply #203 |
204. If the distribution of the ratio "votes/registration" is not normal |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-11-05 02:27 PM Response to Reply #204 |
206. I never assumed a normal distribution; it is uniform. |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 09:43 PM Response to Reply #84 |
90. In each of 100 simulation trials, an avg 6 of 1900 matched to within .1% |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 10:13 PM Response to Reply #90 |
92. Sigh |
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minvis (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 11:35 AM Response to Reply #92 |
125. We're already doing it in Ohio |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 11:44 AM Response to Reply #125 |
127. You made my day! |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 11:00 PM Response to Reply #90 |
95. If you change your RandBetween to be |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 11:11 PM Response to Reply #95 |
99. From 3-10, average of 6. Never once above 10. The odds are astronomical |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 11:14 PM Response to Reply #99 |
100. The "real" range of percentages |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 11:48 PM Response to Reply #95 |
102. FYI... |
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WI Independent (156 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 11:11 PM Response to Reply #90 |
98. Why are you doing random simulations? |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 11:24 PM Response to Reply #98 |
101. I understand your point, but this is one way to show that |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 05:31 AM Response to Reply #90 |
105. Simulations for 1900 with different standard deviations |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 07:15 AM Response to Reply #105 |
107. OK, you have just confirmed my simulation - twice. |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 09:19 AM Response to Reply #107 |
111. Agreed |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 08:16 AM Response to Reply #105 |
108. eomer - it's because if you look at the original poster, |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 09:20 AM Response to Reply #108 |
112. Still trying? Read Post #110.. Prob = 1.31% ... |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 09:58 AM Response to Reply #108 |
113. Oops, maybe I had my visor on too tight... |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 10:20 AM Response to Reply #113 |
117. Not quite.Take a look at post 116: Probability Sensitivity Analysis |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 10:56 AM Response to Reply #117 |
120. OK, I looked and I'm confused about what you are saying. |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 11:41 AM Response to Reply #120 |
126. I am using the average match returned from the simulation.. |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 11:51 AM Response to Reply #126 |
128. But we are not getting 14 matches in a sample of 1900 |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 12:18 PM Response to Reply #128 |
132. There are 1900 matched pairs. |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 12:52 PM Response to Reply #132 |
137. I agree that that is two matches out of 1900 |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 02:07 PM Response to Reply #137 |
141. Ok, lets recalc for 3800; For 6 sim. avg matches, the prob>=14 =0.36% |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 02:41 PM Response to Reply #141 |
144. But you're using a rate of 6/3800. That should be 6/1900. |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 03:10 PM Response to Reply #144 |
145. Yes, but I'm not convinced that is how you should look at it. |
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eomer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 03:29 PM Response to Reply #145 |
146. I'm thinking that the Democratic turnout and the Republican turnout |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 09:09 PM Response to Reply #146 |
148. eomer, check this... |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 10:02 PM Response to Reply #148 |
150. Yet again, you fail simple math. |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 07:01 AM Response to Reply #150 |
158. No, the numbers are 4101 and .01 |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 09:24 AM Response to Reply #158 |
159. You just cannot admit you were wrong |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 09:35 AM Response to Reply #159 |
160. Unfortunately, when you divide one number by another, |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 09:54 AM Response to Reply #160 |
161. Deleted message |
TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 10:00 AM Response to Reply #161 |
162. Go back to post #160. You replied too quickly... nt |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 10:15 AM Response to Reply #162 |
164. Deleted message |
Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 10:30 AM Response to Reply #164 |
167. Deleted message |
Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 10:34 AM Response to Reply #167 |
168. Deleted message |
TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 11:07 AM Response to Reply #168 |
173. GLAD YOU BOOKMARKED. SO WILL I. |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 11:13 AM Response to Reply #173 |
174. LOL - yes, |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 10:42 AM Response to Reply #164 |
169. BUT THAT WOULD NOT BE A MATCH IN THE SIMULATION YOU CITE |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 10:50 AM Response to Reply #169 |
171. And you still have not answered a simple |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 12:37 PM Response to Reply #128 |
134. Deleted message |
Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 12:41 PM Response to Reply #134 |
136. Deleted message |
adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 11:06 AM Response to Reply #113 |
122. Work in Progress |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 08:58 AM Response to Reply #105 |
110. 1900 Sorted by match. Further proof 14 unlikely: Probability = 1.31% |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 10:18 AM Response to Reply #110 |
116. Probability sensitivity analysis: Observed vs simulation |
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Melissa G (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 10:16 PM Response to Reply #116 |
152. Okay all you math guys/gals. I can't even get close to you on the |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 10:45 PM Response to Reply #152 |
153. If the probability of the "anomaly" happening |
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Melissa G (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 10:58 PM Response to Reply #153 |
154. This is where I think framing matters Q.. |
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qwghlmian (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 11:10 PM Response to Reply #154 |
155. How should I put it... |
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Melissa G (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 11:17 PM Response to Reply #155 |
156. Very cute story Q...not arguing that point.. |
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mgr (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 12:42 PM Response to Reply #154 |
183. Actually it is the opposite |
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Melissa G (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 10:40 PM Response to Reply #183 |
193. This is the game as I see it..the way we are talking about it. |
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mgr (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-11-05 05:54 PM Response to Reply #193 |
207. The one problem is that you have more than two feet. |
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berniew1 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-06-05 11:59 PM Response to Original message |
103. Interesting; here's estimate of "swing" by country in Florida |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 10:04 AM Response to Reply #103 |
115. Might be just me, but link is dead. ..n/t |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 12:12 PM Response to Reply #115 |
131. Page is down |
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berniew1 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 10:01 PM Response to Reply #103 |
149. try again; it had typo htm rather than html |
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Sancho (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 12:10 AM Response to Original message |
104. Pinellas |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 10:03 AM Response to Reply #104 |
114. Out of curiosity... |
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Sancho (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 02:19 PM Response to Reply #114 |
142. sorry, had to go to work.... |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 10:39 AM Response to Reply #104 |
118. Great work |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 11:06 AM Response to Reply #118 |
123. (Chi points up thread) 114 was actually meant for you... n/t |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 11:57 AM Response to Reply #123 |
130. Incomplete |
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Chi (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 11:04 AM Response to Reply #104 |
121. Sorry, confused you with adolfo.... n/t |
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berniew1 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 10:03 PM Response to Reply #121 |
151. here's estimate of swing by county in Florida, with doc. |
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Melissa G (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-07-05 11:29 PM Response to Original message |
157. Is there a link to a numbered Florida precinct map |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-08-05 10:44 AM Response to Reply #157 |
170. PRECINCT MAPS/ADDRESSES |
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adolfo (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-11-05 11:51 AM Response to Reply #157 |
205. Distance? |
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