ELECTION 2004: THE COMPLETE GRAPHICAL REFERENCE

[TruthIsAll]

NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEVIATIONS: 1988-2004
The Democrats have always lost votes from the preliminary “unadjusted” exit poll to the vote.

Democratic Preliminary Exit Poll Deviations from the Vote


Republican Preliminary Exit Poll Deviations from the Vote


Preliminary Exit Poll Deviation Trend




BUSH MONTHLY JOB APPROVAL: FEB. 2001 TO NOV. 2004
Bush Job Approval on Election Day was 48.50%.





FINAL 2004 PRE-ELECTION NATIONAL POLLS

Kerry was ahead based on the average of 9 Independent Polls


Kerry was leading in 11 of 18 Final Independent and Corporate Polls



PRE-ELECTION 2004 STATE POLL TREND
Kerry was gaining on Bush from his low point in mid-September

Pre-election State-weighted National Vote Trend


Kerry Popular and Electoral Vote Forecast Trend


Kerry was expected to win 60-75% of the Undecided Vote




POST-ELECTION 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
Preliminary Exit Polls had Kerry the winner by 51-48%

Timeline: Kerry vs. Bush Respondents


Kerry vs. Bush National Percentages by Category


Timeline of Characteristic Weights


Preliminary to Final Exit Poll



KERRY WIN SCENARIOS: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Kerry won under all plausible scenarios of the How Voted in 2000 Demographic

120 Kerry National Exit Poll Scenarios: New 2004 and Gore 2000 Voter Turnout


Kerry Margin of Victory Sensitivity Analysis





POST-ELECTION STATE EXIT POLLS
Kerry was poised to win at least 311 Electoral Votes based on the state exit polls downloaded at 12:22am on Nov 3.

Pre-election Polls vs. Exit Polls vs. Actuals
42 out of 50 states deviated to Bush .


Thousands of voting machine glitches were documented.
Exit Poll Deviations and Reported Machine Problems I


Exit Poll Deviations and Reported Machine Problems II


Exit Poll Deviations from Actuals


Exit Poll Vote Deviations vs. Margin of Error
Bush deviations exceeded the Exit Poll MoE in 17 states.



Final Pre-election vs. Exit Polls



Exit Poll Deviations by Time Zone
All 22 states in the Eastern Time Zone deviated to Bush.


Pie Chart: State Vote Deviations
NY had the greatest vote deviation to Bush.



NC State, Governor, Presidential Races: Absentee vs. Exit Poll vs. Actual
Kerry deviations far exceeded the others, except when absentee paper ballots were used.

[Botany]

1. Outstanding!

Thank you!

[TruthIsAll]

7. IMORTANT NOTE: CLICK ON THE ICON IN THE LOWER RIGHT CORNER

IN ORDER TO EXPAND THE GRAPH IF NECESSARY.

SOME ARE VERY WIDE WITH A LOT OF NUMBERS AS WELL.

[Botany]

9. Nice work!

Thank you again

[TruthIsAll]

26. THERE ARE MORE WHERE THESE CAME FROM..

EXIT POLL TRENDS REVERSED IN 2004. BBV?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x366334

KERRY WON UNDER ALL PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS OF VOTER TURNOUT
This shows the logical fallacy of rBr.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368562

[prairierose]

2. Good Work as always TIA,....

Did you by any chance do any graphical work on Daschle's race? Some people understand graphical better than stats.

[TruthIsAll]

4. Nothing on Daschle. The NC race was the only one, based on

analysis presented by another DUer.

NC was a mess.

[tinrobot]

3. Could you put these links on a web page?

You do such great work, it would be nice if you put these links on a single web page so we could pass the URL around.

[TruthIsAll]

6. You can just pass along the url to this thread.

[Melissa G]

5. Excellent! We need to get this info out to the public. n/t

[FreepFryer]

8. Awesome compendium. I'm checking all my assumptions/talking points...

...as we speak!

Rock on TIA. You're making a huge difference.

[Melissa G]

16. Hey Freep Fryer! Post them in a thread after you check them!

After that media moment.. I'm sure we all want your talking points!

[ginnyinWI]

10. Thanks TIA

I've posted a link to this in the John Kerry Group.

[Sancho]

11. Question

I was looking at the trend over the last 4 elections...is 2004 different in deviation from previous years? In what way? Does 2004 seem to be typical of poll error?

I don't doubt there was hacking of tabulators and other cheating in selected states (NY, FL, OH), but it takes ONE solid case of ONE tabulator, etc. to make the investigation inevitable. In my mind, that means we have to have the raw data to look at where and how the demographics are attributible to cheating without speculating about democrates who voted republican, etc.

I'm registered as a republican in Fl, because it's the only way in this county to affect the primaries...but I usually vote straight democratic.

To me, the easiest "investigation" is some sort of demand for the raw data.

[LatePeriduct]

13. Those are some real extra good questions

I think the most complete way to look at it, is pick out the specific precinct models by demographic from the charts you see here...

Then go to the official EIRS homepage, and read about all the documented fraud and reports on it there.

One way to get results fast for instance, is compare everything in one of the county's EIRS say for instance Dade county in Florida. Look at it compared alongside the actual deviations and you start to notice something going on here.

"vote straight democratic."

Did you say you almost always do this? You might want to check the EIRS very carefully Sancho, because there has been documentation that shows the straight-ticket votes are mostly not even registering in around 8 states.

[TruthIsAll]

15. Yes, 2004 is very different.

In magnitude and scope.

There have always been 1-2 million spoiled democratic ballots, which counted for a large portion of the discrepancies.

In both Clinton races, he was a clear winner in the pre-election and the exit polls, so the combination of natural/unnatural spoilage and disenfranchisement were not enough.

In 2000, it was fairly close. Although Gore won by 540,000 votes, you know he really won 1-2 million. The exit poll shows this. But Bush was able to steal Florida, which he really lost by at least 50,000 votes.

In 2004, it was NOT even close. Kerry won by 6-8 million votes, 52-47%. BBV became the ultimate in spoiled ballots - undetectable, lethal. If you can steal 2 million, you can just as easily steal 4, 6, 8 million.

So they turned a 52-47% Kerry win into 48-51%, a net 8% change. Eight percent of 122 million is almost 10 million votes.

That's BIG.

[FogerRox]

28. TIA said--In 2004, it was NOT even close.

Kerry won by 6-8 million votes, 52-47%.

YOu might have heard this before--An incumbant gets his may/june approval rating in NOv.

Bush was at 44%--Sorry dont have a source just remember gloating heavily about those numbers.

Kerry should get--minus 1% for 3rd party votes 55%
Kerry -------55%
Bush --------44%
3rd party ----1%

SO yeah TIA-- I like your numbers--- 10 million votes got washed or whatever, maybe 12 million.

[ccarter84]

12. Thanks TIA, Q about second link

'Republican Preliminary Exit Poll Deviations from the Vote'

From the second graph, it would seem that to the casual observer our exit polls have always overfavored dem's....

just my take
lots of work went into these, good job

[TruthIsAll]

14. Not sure what you mean.

The second Repub graph is just the opposite of the Dem graph.

It shows that in EVERY election, the Repubs have gone UP from the exit poll to the vote. The DEMS have always gone DOWN.

[Melissa G]

17. Hi TIA please check your inbox.. Great Work on the Graphs!

[FogerRox]

29. LOL--yes--must be artifact ---right? LOL or its the reluctant

non responding gas station attendant--yeah that guy

[LatePeriduct]

18. This right here is what made me realize it was all a sham.

"POST-ELECTION STATE EXIT POLLS
Kerry was poised to win at least 311 Electoral Votes based on the state exit polls downloaded at 12:22am on Nov 3."

Kerry had to have won no matter what, because the actual media not the corporate media reported that at after midnight all exit polls were favoring kerry.

But that was the dark hour, the dark night hour where it all changed. The exit poll database was knocked offline at this point and nobody knows how it happened or why. Mistaken glitch CNN says.

When it returned the exit poll results had switched places, they had reversed in the most cryptic way ever seen. There is no physical possible way that could have happened in every voter affiliation across the chart, unless 10 million voters automatically changed their minds voting for Bush.

Its like it defies the laws of everything we know. There is one other alternative explanation, which has a much higher chance of success. 10 million votes were purged during that time-frame, and 10 million voters had their votes not counted and those votes became mis-counted.

It would then explain why such a minority of people with fascist values could over-throw the whole government. All it took was technology in all the major precincts which was rigged, think about that one for a while.

[tommcintyre]

19. Thanks always for your hard work. It is much appreciated! n/t

[Nothing Without Hope]

20. This is great, TIA! Thanks! Would you be willing to repost your list

in this thread in plain text format with the image links in their original versions? That way, people could copy and paste and keep all the information.

Recommended

[TruthIsAll]

21. Ok, later

.

[TruthIsAll]

23. GRAPH LINKS IN PLAIN TEXT

NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEVIATIONS: 1988-2004
The Democrats have always lost votes from the preliminary
“unadjusted” exit poll to the vote.

Democratic Preliminary Exit Poll Deviations from the Vote
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/5elections_15620_image001.png

Republican Preliminary Exit Poll Deviations from the Vote
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/5elections_15620_image003.png

Preliminary Exit Poll Deviation Trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/5elections_15620_image002.png



BUSH  MONTHLY  JOB APPROVAL:  FEB. 2001 TO NOV. 2004
Bush Job Approval on Election Day was 48.50%.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image009.png



FINAL 2004 PRE-ELECTION NATIONAL POLLS

Kerry was ahead based on the average of 9 Independent Polls 
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image007.png

Kerry was leading in 11 of 18 Final Independent and Corporate
Polls 
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image008.png


PRE-ELECTION 2004 STATE POLL TREND
Kerry was gaining on Bush from his low point in mid-September

Pre-election State-weighted National Vote Trend 
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image001.png

Kerry Popular and Electoral Vote Forecast Trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image003.png

Kerry was expected to win 60-75% of the Undecided Vote
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image004.png



POST-ELECTION 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
Preliminary Exit Polls had Kerry the winner by 51-48%

Timeline: Kerry vs. Bush Respondents
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/3NatExitPolls_12092_image001.png

Kerry vs. Bush National Percentages by Category
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/dueXITdeMOGR_26354_image004.png

Timeline of Characteristic Weights
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/3NatExitPolls_Timeline.png

Preliminary to Final Exit Poll
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/3NatExitPolls_26960_KerryPct.png


KERRY WIN SCENARIOS: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Kerry won under all plausible scenarios of  the How Voted in
2000 Demographic

120 Kerry National Exit Poll Scenarios: New 2004 Voters and
Gore 2000 Voter Turnout
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/3NatExitPolls_315_KerrySensTurnoutNewVoter.png

Kerry Margin of Victory Sensitivity Analysis
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/3NatExitPolls_7103_KerryMarginSens.png




POST-ELECTION STATE EXIT POLLS
Kerry was poised to win at least 311 Electoral Votes based as
of 12:22am.

Pre-election Polls vs. Exit Polls vs. Actuals
42 out of 50 states deviated to Bush .
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/PreExitActual.png

Exit Poll Deviations and Reported Machine Problems I
Thousands of voting machine glitches were documented.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/DUReportedMacineProbs_6421_image001.png

Exit Poll Deviations and Reported Machine Problems II
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/Election2004ExitPolls1124_31950_ShiftTypeProblems.png

Exit Poll Deviations from Actuals
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/Election2004ExitPolls115_31337_VotesLost.png

Exit Poll Vote Deviations vs. Margin of Error
Bush deviations exceeded the Exit Poll MoE in 17 states.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/Election2004ExitPolls_15021_KerryDevvsMOE.png


Final Pre-election vs. Exit Polls
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/Election2004ExitPolls_15021_KerryPubVsExit.png


Exit Poll Deviations by Time Zone
All 22 states in the Eastern Time Zone deviated to Bush.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/FreemanExitPollData_10384_image001.png

Pie Chart: State Vote Deviations
NY had the highest vote exit to vote deviation.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/FreemanExitPollData_10384_image002.png


NC State, Governor, Presidential Races: Absentee vs. Exit Poll
vs. Actual
Kerry deviations far exceeded the others, except when absentee
paper ballots were used.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/Election2004ExitPolls_15024_image001.png

[Nothing Without Hope]

24. Thank you for the plain text repost, TIA n/t

[Botany]

22. Kick

:kick:

[slor]

25. Great work! n/t

[Peace Patriot]

27. Awesome, TIA! Thanks for re-posting this! n/t

[vince3]

30. Thanks, TIA

Great work, as always.