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HOW TO RED-SHIFT THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL IN 6 EASY STEPS...

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-24-05 11:30 PM
Original message
HOW TO RED-SHIFT THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL IN 6 EASY STEPS...
Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 11:44 PM by TruthIsAll
Start here:
Preliminary Exit Poll 
13047 Respondents	
12:22am Nov.3
Kerry is the winner by 4.2 million votes: 
50.82% - 47.38%

What does it take to turn that around for Bush?
Well, first you need 613 additional respondents.
And then you need to go to a massage parlor.
		

VOTED 2000	
   Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	41%	57%	1%
Gore	39%	8%	91%	1%
Bush	41%	90%	9%	0%
Other	3%	13%	65%	16%
	100%	47.38%	50.82%	1.04%
Votes	       57.93	62.13
Bush is trailing by 4.21 million votes.

Now this is the weighting you all have been waiting for:						

1. Increase Bush share of new voters to 45%, reduce Kerry to
54%				
VOTED 2000
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	39%	8%	91%	1%
Bush	41%	90%	9%	0%
Other	3%	13%	65%	16%
	100%	48.06%	50.31%	1.04%
Votes        58.76	61.51
Bush made up ground, but is still behind by 2.75 million
votes				
				
2. Increase Bush Other to 21%, reduce Nader to 3%
VOTED 2000	
      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	39%	8%	91%	1%
Bush	41%	90%	9%	0%
Other	3%	21%	65%	3%
	100%	48.30%	50.31%	0.65%
Votes	     59.05	61.51
Not much help. Bush is trailing by 2.46 million.				
				
3. Reduce Gore 2000 voters for Kerry to 90%, increase Bush
2000 voters for Bush to 91%.

VOTED 2000	
      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	39%	8%	90%	1%
Bush	41%	91%	9%	0%
Other	3%	21%	71%	3%
	100%	48.71%	50.10%	0.65%
Votes	      59.55	61.25
Good move. Bush is closing, and trailing by 1.70 million.				
				
4. Increase Gore voters for Bush from 8 to 10%.				

VOTED 2000
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	39%	10%	90%	1%
Bush	41%	91%	9%	0%
Other	3%	21%	71%	3%
	100%	49.49%	50.10%	0.65%
Votes	     60.51	61.25
Big move. Bush is trailing by just 0.75 million.				
A Drastic move is necessary. 				
Must change the Gore/Bush mix.				
				
5.Increase the Bush mix to 42%, even though 41.26% is the
absolute maximum that could vote, assuming NO Bush 2000 voters
died and ALL  returned to vote.
The hell with the Reluctant Bush Responder theory.				

VOTED 2000
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	38%	10%	90%	1%
Bush	42%	91%	9%	0%
Other	3%	21%	71%	3%
	100%	50.30%	49.29%	0.64%
Votes	     61.50	60.26	
Bush has finally taken the lead.				
But 1.23 million is not enough.				
Since 42% is already an impossibility, let's go for all the
marbles and make it 43%. 
What the hell.
Edison/Mitofsky need to match Bush's 3.5 million margin.

6. Increase the Bush/Gore spread to 43-37%.
That should do it.				
				
VOTED 2000
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	37%	10%	90%	1%
Bush	43%	91%	9%	0%
Other	3%	21%	71%	3%
	100%	51.11%	48.48%	0.63%
Votes	     62.49	59.27	
				
Bush wins the Final Exit poll of 13660 respondents by 3.22
million votes.				

The Final Exit Poll finally matches to the recorded vote.				
				
				
				
				
				
				
				
				
				
				
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-25-05 01:05 AM
Response to Original message
1. That about nails it. This reminds me of Plato's notion of Anemnisis.
He claimed that if you had a fragment of a picture, situation, phenomena, you could logically infer the remainder of the pattern (the whole picture) through logical analysis. I've never really understood this concept (and I'm sure others after Plato have outlined it). But now I do. The available data, hard to get and difficult to understand, is the basis for this analysis. This work is compelling. I think you should get the Nobel Prize for this!!! Maybe you will if we get a Democratic Congress in 2006 or a Democratic President in 2008, one with a real sense of intellectual honesty and more importantly curiosity. I recall one of your pre-election posts when you said that Kerry had to really nail it in order for the 'believable' vote fixing schemes to be ineffective. Were you ever right. You told us so! Thank you for this work.
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-25-05 02:14 AM
Response to Original message
2. Gee always makes me wonder...
How come blackwell said he is proud of all the election day problems and wants to get revenge on everyone for voter fraud?

Did the voters really cause the coup? Or was it.......*drumroll*


Something ELSE...
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-27-05 11:09 AM
Response to Original message
3. Now if you want to go from the impossible to the real...
Edited on Sun Mar-27-05 11:11 AM by TruthIsAll
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-27-05 11:57 AM
Response to Original message
4. You also need a compliant minority party and docile media...
otherwise this would not work. We have two other parts to fix as well to get our democracy back! Why the massage parlor shot? :shrug:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-27-05 12:03 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. To massage the pristine preliminary exit poll...
..
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-27-05 12:38 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. thanks.. a little slow on the uptake this morning...n/t
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