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UPDATED: MY COLLECTION OF EXIT POLL THREADS

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 08:37 PM
Original message
UPDATED: MY COLLECTION OF EXIT POLL THREADS
Edited on Sat Mar-12-05 08:47 PM by TruthIsAll
THIS EXIT POLL SIMULATION TEST BLOWS AWAY THE NEDERLAND "PROOF"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Nederland agrees: The Recorded votes and Final Exit poll are bogus.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

A Mathematical proof: Exit polls are accurate
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The Nat Exit Poll Crime Line: 7:58pm(K) to 12:22am (K) to 2:04pm (B)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Check. Mate.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

NATIONAL EXIT POLL: PRELIMINARY TO FINAL - WHAT HAPPENED?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

I now fully accept that Bush won the election fair and square, because...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

SO IT COMES TO THIS: DO YOU BELIEVE 13,047 OR 13,660?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

WTF? 2004 NEP DEMOGRAPHIC WEIGHTS DON'T AGREE WITH THE ACTUAL VOTES
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

ULTIMATE PROOF KERRY WON: COMPARE THE NATIONAL EXIT POLLS -1996,2000,2004
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


THE 2000 NATIONAL EXIT POLL: ACCURATE TO WITHIN 0.5%
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

1996 NATIONAL EXIT POLL: JUST LIKE IN 2000, RIGHT ON THE MONEY
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

DO YOU BELIEVE ALL 37 OF THESE STATEMENTS? CLINTON DOES.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

What is the probability that ALL 50 states would exceed the MOE for Bush?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

BLOWN TO SMITHEREENS: MITOFSKY'S "RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER" THEORY
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


ONE IN 257 TRILLION? The state exit poll MOE's were too conservative.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

THE MOST DEVASTATING STATISTIC OF ALL: 17% OF THE VOTERS WERE NEW
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

CHRISTOPHER HITCHENS, WELCOME ABOARD THE DU TRAIN...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

100K+ FRIENDS OF BUSH: NY PA FL OH NC IL MA NJ; FRIEND OF KERRY: TX
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

What goes up, must come down; Spinning wheel got to go round..
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


The EAST was the BEAST: Time Zone Exit Poll Discrepancy Analysis
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Deviation Favor Bush? Yes. Deviation >MoE? Yes. State Flip to Bush? Yes.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Probability analysis of exit poll deviations using Freeman's data
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

JOHN KERRY, ARE YOU MATH-CHALLENGED? HELP USCOUNTVOTES.ORG
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Math Guys: Are the ODDS 1 in a TRILLION or 1 in 10 MILLION?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Naysayers, its time to take your strawmen elsewhere.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


THE BARE TRUTH WHICH SHOULD HAVE FLIPPED OUT THE DEMOCRATS BY NOW.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The Unmaking of the President: 2004
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


NEP: WP 13,047 respondents (Kerry) > CNN 13,660 (Bush)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


1/23 UPDATE: NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

State Exit Poll/Vote Statistical Update
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

GRAPH: Exit Poll Deviations Weighted by State Voting Method Mix
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


It's Time to Cut to the Chase.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

I learned something about exit polls today.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Bush probabilities for various Party-ID weights in the National Exit Poll
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


GRAPH: Kerry State Exit Poll Deviations vs. Margin of Error
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Exit Poll Probability Analysis - state by state
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Fire up your Excel spreadsheets: The Election Fraud Probability Quiz
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

National Election Poll: Analysis of Voter Demographics
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

VERY STRANGE, VERY STRANGE....
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph ...

MY TINFOIL HAT IS GETTING HEAVY: CNN 2000 Exit Poll Site is INCOMPLETE
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph ...

THE SMOKING GRAPH: GORE (tight) VS. KERRY (wide) EXIT POLL DEVIATIONS
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph ...

THE ODDS: TAKING THE EXIT POLL "CLUSTER" FACTOR INTO EFFECT
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph ...

CONFIRMING DR. BAIMAN: THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL SAMPLE PROBABILITIES
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Baiman/Simon: Who won the popular vote ?
http://freepress.org/images/departments/PopularVotePape...


National Exit Poll: Nov 3 12:23am; Odds: 1 out of 547 million.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


NAYSAYERS, YOUR TURN: The Washington Post/National Election Pool Exit Poll
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

SMOKING GUN? THE CNN NATIONAL EXIT POLL SITE PROVES THAT KERRY WON
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Regional Exit Analysis: How did Bush get 63.6% of the final 623 polled?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

KERRY WON: No matter how you WEIGHT (RACE, GENDER, EDUCATION, AGE,INCOME)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

KERRY'S WINNING WEIGHTS: PARTY ID, IDEOLOGY, RELIGION, MILITARY, ISSUES
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

KERRY'S POPULAR VOTE BASED ON THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

THE STORY: FIRST 11,000, PRISTINE; FINAL 2000, CONTAMINATED
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

CLUSTER AROUND, FOLKS. CHOOSE YOUR OWN MOE.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

PROBABILITY TABLES: YOUR OWN EXIT POLL FRAUD DETECTION KIT
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

CLUES? Exit Poll Deviations weighted by EV; Voting Machine Mix by state
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

ODDS OF A FAIR VOTE IN COSHOCTON COUNTY, OH: 1 of 17,000
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

CORRECTION: ODDS OF A FAIR VOTE IN COSHOCTON CTY
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


PREDICTION: THIS WILL BECOME AN HISTORIC DOCUMENT
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


THE NEW MATH: FAITH-BASED ARITHMETIC 101
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

18 NATIONAL POLLSTERS AND MITOFSKY HAD IT EXACTLY RIGHT- KERRY GOT 51%
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Part IIIb. To believe Bush won the election, you must also believe...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

SMOKING GUN? 2000 EXIT POLLS ACCURATE TO WITHIN 0.17%. STRAWMAN DOWN!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


WHY DO ALL THE ANOMALIES, IRREGULARITIES AND GLITCHES ALLWAYS FAVOR BUSH?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Kerry's lawyer was being truthful when he said no fraud. Right.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

THE FACTS SO FAR
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

WHY REPUBLICANS BELIEVE THERE WAS NO FRAUD: From A to Z
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

15 QUESTIONS FOR THOSE WHO DISPARAGE EXIT POLLING
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

TO THOSE TURNCOAT BLOGS WHO CALL US FRAUDISTS...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The Exit Poll Quiz
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Programming 101:
SUB SCAM A Tiny Visual Basic Program
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

ELECTION MODEL ANALYSIS: SIMON DOWNLOAD OF STATE EXIT POLL DATA; KERRY 311 EV, 50.6% VOTE
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Exit Polls MATCHED Pre-Election polls within 1/7th of ONE percent
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Polling Margin of Error
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


THE NEW MEDIA: TRUTHSEEKERS IN THE BLOGOSPHERE

Despite what you may have heard, the exit polls were right...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

My response to the latest Mystery Pollster (Jan. 8) blog
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

EXIT POLLS: THE LATEST MYSTERY POLLSTER BLOG - AND MY COMMENTS
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

DEJA VU: WAS IT ALL A DREAM? FLASHBACK TO NOV. 2
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

FOOTPRINTS OF ELECTORAL FRAUD
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The SCOOP/Simon exit poll breakthrough - more true than ever.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

WHY DID THE EXIT POLLS SAY KERRY GOT MORE VOTES? BECAUSE HE DID.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

WHERE WOULD WE BE WITHOUT THE NET?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...



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MelissaB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 08:40 PM
Response to Original message
1. Amazing! Thank you
for your tireless work!

:yourock:
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Donailin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #1
12. Seriously, TIA, you DO rock
You are a man with a mission, your discipline is remarkable and I for one salute you.
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 08:46 PM
Response to Original message
2. Fantastic! Well Done :-)
:-)
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stpalm Donating Member (734 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 08:50 PM
Response to Original message
3. tag
I was told to read this but I don't think I can take all this right now. I will read it later.
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Webster Green Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 09:40 PM
Response to Original message
4. Bookmarked!
Thanx! :yourock:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 09:56 PM
Response to Original message
5. FIXED THESE LINKS
VERY STRANGE, VERY STRANGE....
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


MY TINFOIL HAT IS GETTING HEAVY: CNN 2000 Exit Poll Site is INCOMPLETE
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


THE SMOKING GRAPH: GORE (tight) VS. KERRY (wide) EXIT POLL DEVIATIONS
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


THE ODDS: TAKING THE EXIT POLL "CLUSTER" FACTOR INTO EFFECT
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 02:38 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Forgot: Graph of Preliminary Exit poll deviation trends since 1988
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 10:49 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. And this one from today...
IF THIS PRELIMINARY NEP WEIGHT WAS CORRECT, WHY WAS IT CHANGED?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 11:51 AM
Response to Original message
8. Are exit polls conducted during early voting?
exit polling- is it done during the early voting period?


1/3 of all NC citizens cast their votes before Nov 2, that is over
1 million voters. Were they included in the exit polling?

I voted on Nov 2, by the way, and there was no exit poll where I voted.

My understanding is that democrats prefer to vote early
(I don't, though - I think it is nuts to allow your vote to go an extended time before it is counted)

Republicans prefer to vote absentee by mail or on election day.

This is what one election director of an NC county advised me.

Is this right?

How do exit polls work when 1/3 of a state votes early?



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dzika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 04:11 PM
Response to Original message
9. Thank you!
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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 05:33 PM
Response to Original message
10. This proves it...

An average of more than 5 new threads per week since this compedium started, most of which have at least 1 or 2 new twists which add something to the discussion... it's obvious.

TIA is on a mission from God (the John Belushi kind; not the Falwell kind).

Cheers...
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 06:21 PM
Response to Original message
11. Kick..........their.........*ss.........TIA................n/t
Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 06:22 PM by kster
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