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The Exit Polls were heavily biased against Kerry- here's why.

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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-10-05 01:11 AM
Original message
The Exit Polls were heavily biased against Kerry- here's why.
Hundreds of thousands of Kerry voters in many states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. and many thousands in most states were prevented from voting or having their vote count by well documented suppression of minorities and students. These are eligible voters who should have been able to vote but weren't allowed to, and all together they amount to millions. And they were excluded from both the official vote totals and the Exit Poll numbers.

minorities: http://www.flcv.com/summary.html
or http://www.flcv.com/ussumall.html

students: http://www.flcv.com/studentv.html


How should they be taken into account??
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-10-05 01:17 AM
Response to Original message
1. I'd like to know the # of people who were denied their right to vote
and know who they wanted to vote for. I'll bet it was in the millions. How to prove it, though...
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Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-10-05 01:24 AM
Response to Original message
2. That's one that bugs me.
Those folk weren't exit polled because they weren't allowed to enter the poll.
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Peter Frank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-10-05 01:36 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. That is the operative question here... nt
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MeDeMax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-10-05 02:36 AM
Response to Original message
4. we may have dropped the ball on this demographic
(college student demographic that is)

I attended Michael Moore's "The Slacker Uprising Tour" event at kent state (located near Cleveland/Akron Ohio), it was an excellent idea, but implemented too late.

By the time college students attended these events the voter registration deadlines and even absentee ballot request deadlines were long past.

Had we registered the students as they walked into their campuses in fall the 18-25 group would have had much more impact.

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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-10-05 04:54 AM
Response to Original message
5. Good point! As Steven Freeman has shown, when you add...
...Gore 2000 repeat voters + huge success of Dems in new voter registration (57% to 41%!) + big jump of Nader voters to Kerry, you get a 4 to 8 million vote Kerry win.

Kerry won the final exit polls by 3%. USCountVotes (in a report by 9 Ph.D.s) found evidence that the exit polls were actually skewed to Bush (the exact opposite of what was reported in the news), meaning that Kerry's margin was even bigger.

So, it's looking like Kerry won by something like 4% to 5%, DESPITE all the vote suppression. Which means that--if the vote suppression had not occurred--what happened was a big Kerry landslide. He (we!) actually blew Bush out of the water.

As to regrets about this--depression, negativsm, what if we had worked harder? or the Kerry campaign had been better?, could we have overcome the fraud? etc. etc. --don't let yourself do that. I think the truth is that the Bush Cartel would have done whatever they had to do to retain power. For instance, I'm pretty sure they had a backup plan for using "terrorist alerts" on election day (they went to some trouble to prep this in the news).

The only thing we should regret is that we, as a citizenry, were not informed enough about the voting system, and the Dem leadership failed us catastrohpically on that issue. (They should have screamed bloody murder about secret, proprietary source code, controlled by BushCon companies, counting all our votes--or not counting them--and all that. The election SYSTEM itself was fraudulent.)

But things happen as they happen, and now we know. BIG wake-up call. Got to fix this, and battle it out in every state. (Congress isn't going to help.) It's doable. But we've got to get on it. And it's going to take time--incremental victories--to rebuild our election system and our democracy.

The vote suppression needs to be solved. We actually already have a law--the Voting Rights Act of 1965--which forbids much of what happened in Ohio and Florida. We just can't get it enforced! To get it enforced, we have to solve the OTHER, much bigger problem: insecure, unverifiable, partisan-controlled electronic voting.



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Fly by night Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-17-05 10:59 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. Well said. We need election reform AND election justice, & we need it NOW.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-17-05 09:51 PM
Response to Original message
6. Now this is real, factual bias; not just a theoretical musing
...
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Mistwell Donating Member (553 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 02:45 AM
Response to Reply #6
10. See, I knew we could agree on something!
Would you look at that. Next I'll spot a pig flying by my window with skis on its hooves and a bumper sticker that says Hell Or Bust!

:)
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 07:35 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. Mistwell, I have always referred to the disenfranchisement
Edited on Fri Mar-18-05 08:10 AM by TruthIsAll
of democratic minority voters and others as being a major vehicle of fraud, along with the bogus vote counts.

Analyzing the exit polls provided a major red flag and was necessary to determine the approximate number of stolen votes, a major component of the total fraud.

Stealing votes was necessary for Bush because VOTES GAINED THROUGH DISENFRANCHISEMENT AND SPOILED BALLOTS WERE NOT SUFFICIENT.

TOTAL FRAUD = DISENFRANCHISED + SPOILED BALLOTS + STOLEN VOTES
F= f(D,B,S) = D + B + S

Here is my best estimate:
Total Kerry Votes lost to Fraud: F = f(2,1,3) = 6 million.

In a fair election system, Kerry would have won 65 million votes (52%), not 59.
Bush would have 59 million (47%), not 62.
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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-17-05 10:53 PM
Response to Original message
7. bernview1, this is the REAL issue...

I'm thinking, I forget about exit polls and voting machines and conspiracies for the next few days and go back to basics... do a few threads on registration, suppression, disqualification, etc.

The point is that all that sets the context and the environment for the entire spectrum of election theft, spells out the motive, intent, etc., and defines a very different world than the abstract one some seem to be drifting toward lately.

Thanks for the help...
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Fly by night Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #7
12. I agree that this is a critically important point. Thanks berniew1 ...
... and see you soon in Nashville.

anaxarchos, you should come north yourself. Wouldn't you enjoy a long face-to-face conversation with berniew1, Kathy Dopp, Clint Curtis and many others? I'd sure love to meet you "in the flesh" myself.
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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 04:36 PM
Response to Reply #12
16. Thanks FbN for the invite... I'll try to do that. n/t
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Chi Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 11:32 AM
Response to Reply #7
13. I'm probably way behind on this thought...but what the hell....
For weeks, if not months, before the 2004 election, I remember a number of stories about re-selection, or pre-selection, of party affiliation.
The few off the top of my head were...

1) People, who just passed a citizenship test, were conveniently given an instant opportunity to register to vote. Only problem was the Republican check box was already selected.

2) College students signing petitions, were duped into changing their party affiliation to Republican.

3) People on the street signing up people to vote were changing their forms to select Republican.

When I first read these stories, I thought...'what the hell is that gonna get them, these people will still vote for Kerry if they want to'.
I thought it was meaningless.

About a week ago I came to the realization, that they weren't trying to change who these people were voting for...
They were laying the foundation to explain how it was possible that Bush won.

Sorry if everyone already thought of this.
(Chi crawls back into his hole)
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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. I think it's a great idea...
and BTW you made me spill my coffee on my lap (3rd time since I hit DU) with your "I learned to ask 'dya want fries with that?'" crack on the other thread. Been there myself ;-)
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Chi Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 11:18 PM
Response to Reply #17
21. LOL 8)
I'm so please someone got a laugh out of that!
The lack of any response had me thinking everyone was terminally stuffy.

Sorry about your pants.
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 12:00 PM
Response to Reply #7
14. I already have firm documenation that shows there was major manipulation
that denied millions of voters the right to vote; It was a huge major effort that occurred in many counties of most states.
As shown by
http://www.flcv.com/summary.html
http://www.flcv.com/ussumall.html
http://www.flcv.com/studentv.html

It was one of the biggest factors in the election;

But there was also a lot of fraud and manipulation of other types as well; including touch screen switching in 18 states

And there could have been even bigger touch screen compiler fraud that was even bigger than the switching; and for which there has been to effort to determine whether it occurred. It would have been easy to do; many had opportunity to do it easily; and there were no safeguards and no audits



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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 04:41 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. Meant no disrespect for your work, bernview1...

...just thinking about adding a little context (previous elections).
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 01:30 AM
Response to Original message
9. A long history of deliberate minority ballot suppression by the GOP
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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 04:46 PM
Response to Reply #9
19. Hi Carolab...
I think we are doing some complimentary work. Have you seen mine:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

It is in post #57. Yours is current, mines a little more historical. I agree that this is one of 12 or so key areas like this.
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 08:58 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. Yes, indeed. Suppression is a planned, systemic assault by the GOP.
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?040920fa_fact

And since the Democratic party can hardly plead ignorance, why have they done so little to publicize it and to stop it?

Okay, the attorneys were "not trained in fraud", meaning "machine fraud". So WHERE did they think that fraud would be perpetrated, if NOT in Democratic, minority precincts? And why were they therefore NOT prepared for it?
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 03:19 PM
Response to Original message
15. Prosecute just one case of malfeasance and the whole criminal
enterprise could come falling down as they snitch on each other.

My suggestion is the Mighty Texas Strike Force in Columbus OH. Columbus DUers needed to begin investigating. Interviewing witnesses. Talking to cab drivers. Where did they go to celebrate on Nov. 2 since we know htye did not head back to TX immediately.

http://www.austinrepublicanwomen.org/texas-strike-force...

http://www.elpasogop.org/articles/index.php?at=4&id=293

http://www.humaneventsonline.com/article.php?print=yes&...

http://www.cartercasteel.com/photos.php

http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:hZzz2bjVRQEJ:www.n...

http://www.consave.com /

Just a thought, why was the man involved in the MTSF sighting in Columbus seen using a pay phone? Is it because cell phones aren't safe and can be traced to a particular user? The Columbus police were called by Holiday Inn, but they reportedly did not do much investigation. Did they check the LUDS for that pay phone. If not why not. If they did not is there anyway for an average citizen to obtain this information. Once you have the LUDS then you could identify the victims. BTW felons most definitely are allowed to vote in Ohio.
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