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WTF? 2004 NEP DEMOGRAPHIC WEIGHTS DON'T AGREE WITH THE ACTUAL VOTES

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-21-05 12:23 AM
Original message
WTF? 2004 NEP DEMOGRAPHIC WEIGHTS DON'T AGREE WITH THE ACTUAL VOTES
Edited on Mon Feb-21-05 01:23 AM by TruthIsAll
LAST 3 NATIONAL EXIT POLLS: 10 DEMOGRAPHIC WEIGHTINGS

Something doesn't seem with the 2004 National Exit Poll
numbers.  
Gender, PartyID and the eight other categories look good.
So do Kerry's Exit Poll numbers. 
But the actual votes don't agree.
Why is that?

The female/male split was 54/46%.
Kerry even wins with a 52/48 female/male split.
GENDER         MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry 	Nader
Male 	         48%	52%	47%	1%	25.0%	22.6%	0.5%
Female 	         52%	45%	54%	1%	23.4%	28.1%	0.5%
	         100%				48.4%	50.6%	1.0%

The party ID split was 38 Dem/35 Rep/ 27 Ind
But Kerry also wins assuming a 37/37/26 PartyID split.
PARTY ID	MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Democrat 	37%	9%	90%	1%	3.3%	33.3%	0.4%
Republican 	37%	92%	7%	0%	34.0%	2.6%	0.0%
Independent	26%	45%	52%	2%	11.7%	13.5%	0.5%
	      100%				49.07%	49.41%	0.89%
				
So how the hell did Bush win? 
Maybe the 10 demographic stats are all wrong. 
Maybe the Bush voters were reluctant to speak to the exit poll
responders after all. 
No, that can't be it, either. Uscountvotes.org debunked that
one. 
In fact, Mitofsky's own report indicates just the opposite: in
heavily GOP precincts, Bush voters were quite anxious to speak
to the exit pollsters.

So what gives?

							
		2004				2000				1996		
DEMOGRAPHIC	Kerry	Bush	Nader		GORE	BUSH	NADER		Clinton	Dole	Perot

Female/Male 	54/46				52/48				52/48		
Gender		50.78%	48.22%	1.00%		48.24%	47.80%	2.48%		48.72%	40.88%	8.44%

Race		50.94%	47.86%	1.00%		48.46%	47.91%	2.73%		48.76%	41.12%	8.34%
Age		50.53%	48.17%	1.00%		48.66%	48.05%	2.51%		48.85%	40.53%	8.69%
Education	50.21%	48.05%	1.17%		47.59%	48.72%	2.48%		49.02%	39.64%	9.41%
Income		51.42%	48.12%	0.95%		48.19%	48.28%	2.30%		48.89%	40.79%	7.45%

Dem/Rep/Ind	38/35/27		          39/35/26     	    39/35/26
PartyId		50.69%	47.77%	0.92%		48.04%	48.36%	2.69%		48.74%	40.77%	8.46%

Ideology	49.85%	48.15%	1.00%		47.73%	48.22%	2.55%		48.99%	41.14%	8.27%
PrevVote	50.90%	47.09%	1.19%		48.64%	47.81%	2.37%		48.75%	41.18%	8.16%
Decided		51.23%	47.95%	0.54%		48.13%	48.55%	2.20%		48.63%	39.97%	8.58%
Religion	50.85%	47.90%	1.18%		48.55%	48.07%	2.71%		48.22%	39.76%	9.23%
												
Average		50.74%	47.93%	1.00%		48.22%	48.18%	2.50%		48.76%	40.58%	8.50%
Actual		48.28%	50.73%	0.99%		47.87%	48.36%	2.74%		49.20%	40.70%	8.40%

Diff%		2.46%	-2.80%	0.01%		0.35%	-0.18%	-0.24%		-0.44%	-0.12%	0.10%

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-21-05 01:51 AM
Response to Original message
1. Correction to last line: actual % reversed for Gore and Bush
Edited on Mon Feb-21-05 02:27 AM by TruthIsAll
		2004				2000				1996		
DEMOGRAPHIC	Kerry	Bush	Nader		GORE	BUSH	NADER		Clinton	Dole	Perot

Female/Male 	54/46				52/48				52/48		
Gender		50.78%	48.22%	1.00%		48.24%	47.80%	2.48%		48.72%	40.88%	8.44%

Race		50.94%	47.86%	1.00%		48.46%	47.91%	2.73%		48.76%	41.12%	8.34%
Age		50.53%	48.17%	1.00%		48.66%	48.05%	2.51%		48.85%	40.53%	8.69%
Education	50.21%	48.05%	1.17%		47.59%	48.72%	2.48%		49.02%	39.64%	9.41%
Income		51.42%	48.12%	0.95%		48.19%	48.28%	2.30%		48.89%	40.79%	7.45%

Dem/Rep/Ind	38/35/27		          39/35/26     	    39/35/26
PartyId		50.69%	47.77%	0.92%		48.04%	48.36%	2.69%		48.74%	40.77%	8.46%

Ideology	49.85%	48.15%	1.00%		47.73%	48.22%	2.55%		48.99%	41.14%	8.27%
PrevVote	50.90%	47.09%	1.19%		48.64%	47.81%	2.37%		48.75%	41.18%	8.16%
Decided		51.23%	47.95%	0.54%		48.13%	48.55%	2.20%		48.63%	39.97%	8.58%
Religion	50.85%	47.90%	1.18%		48.55%	48.07%	2.71%		48.22%	39.76%	9.23%
												

Average		50.74%	47.93%	1.00%		48.22%	48.18%	2.50%		48.76%	40.58%	8.50%
Actual		48.28%	50.73%	0.99%		48.36%	47.87%	2.74%		49.20%	40.70%	8.40%

Diff%		-2.46%	2.80%	-0.01%		0.14%	-0.31%	0.24%		0.44%	0.12%	-0.10%




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Blue Shark Donating Member (225 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-21-05 02:13 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. This is not so tricky...
...the answer is quite obvious...BUSH DIDN"T WIN! But our guy quit...game set and match!


AAAAAAAHHHHHHHRRRRRRRGGGG!
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