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minvis
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Fri Feb-18-05 03:21 PM Original message |
Ohio Exit Poll Raw Data |
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papau
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Fri Feb-18-05 03:36 PM Response to Original message |
1. Indeed that is the excuse the GOP is selling - that they are the majority |
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Igel
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Fri Feb-18-05 03:38 PM Response to Original message |
2. Here;s one link, |
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skids
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Fri Feb-18-05 03:44 PM Response to Original message |
3. Glad someone else is also looking at this. |
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minvis
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Fri Feb-18-05 04:04 PM Response to Reply #3 |
4. Weights |
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skids
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Fri Feb-18-05 04:35 PM Response to Reply #4 |
5. Have you looked at weights within precincts? |
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minvis
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Fri Feb-18-05 05:48 PM Response to Reply #5 |
7. I'm looking |
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minvis
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Fri Feb-18-05 06:17 PM Response to Reply #5 |
9. It's the Senior vote |
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skids
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Fri Feb-18-05 11:11 PM Response to Reply #9 |
13. If that's the case... |
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kiwi_expat
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Tue Mar-22-05 12:12 AM Response to Reply #9 |
135. The senior vote might be weighted more because of refusals.... |
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Time for change
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Sun Mar-13-05 09:38 PM Response to Reply #5 |
119. Here's a link |
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kiwi_expat
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Mon Feb-28-05 12:37 AM Response to Reply #3 |
54. Skids or minvis, please start a new thread: "All OHIO DUers please read" |
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kiwi_expat
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Tue Mar-01-05 08:18 PM Response to Reply #54 |
61. Is it useful to identify (some) precincts that did NOT have exit polls? |
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minvis
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Tue Mar-01-05 10:57 PM Response to Reply #61 |
63. Yes |
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kiwi_expat
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Wed Mar-02-05 08:42 PM Response to Reply #63 |
69. I have just posted questions (on several forums) about SW Ohio voting. |
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minvis
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Wed Mar-02-05 11:34 PM Response to Reply #69 |
70. Just PM me |
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roseBudd
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Wed Mar-09-05 03:42 PM Response to Reply #63 |
82. SW OH Hamilton County Ward 11-E, I did not see an exit poller |
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minvis
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Wed Mar-09-05 03:59 PM Response to Reply #82 |
83. They should be |
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roseBudd
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Wed Mar-09-05 05:30 PM Response to Reply #83 |
84. I can check Hamilton County BoE, have you contacted any Hamilton |
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anaxarchos
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Fri Feb-18-05 04:52 PM Response to Original message |
6. 38% Dem, 37% Pub, 26% Indy. |
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minvis
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Fri Feb-18-05 05:57 PM Response to Reply #6 |
8. Kerry still ahead |
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Chi
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Wed Feb-23-05 05:03 PM Response to Reply #6 |
39. Maybe it's me...but the 2000 numbers don't match the link. |
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anaxarchos
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Mon Feb-28-05 10:56 PM Response to Reply #39 |
57. Hi Chi (love saying that)... |
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Chi
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Wed Mar-02-05 11:11 AM Response to Reply #57 |
66. Sorry about that (Chi hangs head and kicks at some pebbles) .n/t |
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Blue22
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Fri Feb-18-05 09:33 PM Response to Original message |
10. It would be possible to match the Ohio exit poll to precinct level data |
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minvis
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Fri Feb-18-05 10:09 PM Response to Reply #10 |
11. Not online |
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skids
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Fri Feb-18-05 11:09 PM Response to Reply #11 |
12. A couple ways to limit the search. |
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minvis
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Fri Feb-18-05 11:57 PM Response to Reply #12 |
14. Looked at the district number already |
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liam_laddie
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Sat Feb-19-05 06:41 PM Response to Reply #14 |
16. Ohio precinct data |
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minvis
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Sat Feb-19-05 07:48 PM Response to Reply #16 |
19. I might take you up on that |
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Melissa G
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Sat Feb-19-05 11:56 PM Response to Reply #12 |
21. Have you posted this request in the Ohio Forum? |
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skids
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Sun Feb-20-05 05:26 AM Response to Reply #21 |
24. No, I haven't. |
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newyawker99
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Sat Feb-19-05 02:41 PM Response to Reply #10 |
15. Hi Blue22!! |
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Blue22
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Sat Feb-19-05 06:48 PM Response to Reply #15 |
17. Thanks |
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kiwi_expat
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Mon Feb-28-05 09:44 PM Response to Reply #10 |
56. Do you have an idea as to how large that MOE might be? Thanks. |
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minvis
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Mon Feb-28-05 11:45 PM Response to Reply #56 |
58. This is directly from Mitofsky |
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kiwi_expat
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Mon Feb-28-05 11:59 PM Response to Reply #58 |
59. The MOE would be greater for a precinct than a state, I believe. |
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minvis
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Tue Mar-01-05 12:06 AM Response to Reply #59 |
60. You're right |
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Blue22
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Sat Feb-19-05 06:58 PM Response to Original message |
18. It's tough slogging but most precinct data is now on-line |
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minvis
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Sat Feb-19-05 07:51 PM Response to Reply #18 |
20. I have information from Clermont and Butler Counties |
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berniew1
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Sun Feb-20-05 12:17 AM Response to Reply #20 |
22. Green recount teams found evidence of fraud or manipulation in many counti |
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Blue22
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Sun Feb-20-05 12:38 PM Response to Reply #20 |
27. Butler County 11/04 Results in Text/Spreadsheet |
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Blue22
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Sun Feb-20-05 12:46 PM Response to Reply #20 |
28. Oops... Butler County Results text revised. |
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minvis
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Sun Feb-20-05 04:43 PM Response to Reply #28 |
29. Got it |
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kiwi_expat
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Wed Mar-16-05 08:13 PM Response to Reply #20 |
127. Minvis, should we encourage Liam to try to get the Butler exit poll names? |
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minvis
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Thu Mar-17-05 06:14 PM Response to Reply #127 |
128. Yes |
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skids
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Sun Feb-20-05 06:02 AM Response to Reply #18 |
25. If you need help getting data out of those resulsts files. |
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skids
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Sun Feb-20-05 06:25 AM Response to Reply #25 |
26. Prediction (North Carolina) |
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TruthIsAll
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Sun Feb-20-05 02:52 AM Response to Original message |
23. Freeman (Simon) OH exit data: 1963 polled, Kerry 52.06% of 2-party vote. |
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LatePeriduct
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Wed Mar-23-05 05:22 AM Response to Reply #23 |
136. Then how did |
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berniew1
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Sun Feb-20-05 07:19 PM Response to Original message |
30. What is conclusion about this data and its usefulness?? |
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minvis
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Mon Feb-21-05 01:03 AM Response to Reply #30 |
31. Conclusion? |
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kiwi_expat
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Thu Feb-24-05 07:50 PM Response to Reply #31 |
43. Here is a post I put on the "2000 National Exit Poll..." thread: |
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minvis
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Sat Feb-26-05 03:58 PM Response to Reply #43 |
45. Let's Discuss |
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kiwi_expat
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Sat Feb-26-05 05:35 PM Response to Reply #45 |
46. I don't know if precinct exit totals are weighted properly or not. |
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minvis
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Sat Feb-26-05 10:14 PM Response to Reply #46 |
47. Here's what NEP (Mitofsky) says |
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kiwi_expat
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Sun Feb-27-05 12:10 AM Response to Reply #47 |
48. That methodology looks like it could give us good precinct data. |
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minvis
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Sun Feb-27-05 12:31 AM Response to Reply #48 |
49. No counts |
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kiwi_expat
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Sun Feb-27-05 07:05 PM Response to Reply #49 |
52. Skids, in 3, says that missed/refusals are already included in the weights |
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kiwi_expat
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Sun Feb-27-05 11:20 PM Response to Reply #52 |
53. Provisional and "spoiled" ballots could distort the analysis. |
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minvis
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Mon Feb-28-05 01:49 PM Response to Reply #53 |
55. Provisional Ballots |
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Blue22
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Sun Feb-27-05 12:36 AM Response to Reply #45 |
50. Example of how the Ohio Exit Poll can point to unexpected results |
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minvis
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Sun Feb-27-05 12:59 AM Response to Reply #50 |
51. Thanks so much |
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Blue22
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Mon Feb-21-05 10:09 PM Response to Original message |
32. Exit poll precincts and all results for CD1 in Ohio: Solve the riddle! |
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minvis
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Mon Feb-21-05 11:40 PM Response to Reply #32 |
33. Thanks for the info |
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minvis
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Tue Feb-22-05 05:42 PM Response to Reply #32 |
34. I think I got what precinct 54 is |
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Blue22
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Tue Feb-22-05 09:09 PM Response to Reply #34 |
35. Good job, Minvis! |
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minvis
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Wed Feb-23-05 11:10 AM Response to Reply #35 |
36. Population Data |
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FogerRox
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Wed Feb-23-05 12:20 PM Response to Reply #36 |
37. 1 thing I dont understand is how a single exit poller cant interview |
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minvis
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Wed Feb-23-05 02:58 PM Response to Reply #37 |
38. You'd have to ask the pollsters |
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skids
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Sun Mar-13-05 04:56 PM Response to Reply #38 |
113. They aren't allowed to pick and choose. |
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minvis
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Sun Mar-13-05 05:39 PM Response to Reply #113 |
115. Thanks for the clarification |
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minvis
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Thu Feb-24-05 01:08 AM Response to Reply #32 |
40. Precinct 51 |
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Blue22
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Thu Feb-24-05 10:45 PM Response to Reply #40 |
44. I'll add polling places to the precincts as they arrive |
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kiwi_expat
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Sat Apr-09-05 02:39 AM Response to Reply #44 |
145. Hi Blue22. Do you have the polling place information for Cincy 4-M? |
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skids
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Thu Feb-24-05 12:09 PM Response to Reply #32 |
41. You can pick up my NC script here.... |
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minvis
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Thu Feb-24-05 01:08 PM Response to Reply #41 |
42. Thanks for the script, skids! |
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autorank
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Tue Mar-01-05 08:53 PM Response to Original message |
62. Thank you , THIS INDICATES THEFT, PERIOD. OMf'ingG!!! |
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ClintCooper2003
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Wed Mar-02-05 02:11 AM Response to Original message |
64. Can someone please tell me how you deciphered the raw data??? |
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Blue22
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Wed Mar-02-05 07:44 AM Response to Reply #64 |
65. Which raw data? |
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kiwi_expat
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Thu Mar-03-05 07:27 AM Response to Reply #65 |
71. Can we get the 2000 exit poll data and vote totals by precinct? |
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minvis
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Wed Mar-02-05 11:48 AM Response to Reply #64 |
67. If you're talking about the Exit poll data |
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understandinglife
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Wed Mar-02-05 12:05 PM Response to Original message |
68. Thank you for your excellent analysis. (nt) |
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Blue22
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Thu Mar-03-05 10:30 PM Response to Original message |
72. Available Excel sheet with complete Ohio election results and Exit Poll |
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minvis
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Fri Mar-04-05 11:40 AM Response to Reply #72 |
73. Please PM me |
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kiwi_expat
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Fri Mar-04-05 06:58 PM Response to Reply #72 |
74. Me too, please. |
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Blue22
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Fri Mar-04-05 09:39 PM Response to Reply #74 |
75. Sorry, I'm new and don't have enough posts to e-mail you |
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kiwi_expat
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Sun Mar-06-05 02:58 AM Response to Reply #75 |
76. Sorry. I'm new too. |
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Blue22
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Sun Mar-06-05 07:54 AM Response to Reply #76 |
77. I sent a note to the administrator re: distribution of Ohio Excel workbook |
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minvis
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Sun Mar-06-05 11:59 PM Response to Reply #77 |
78. I'll e-mail both of you |
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Blue22
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Thu Mar-10-05 08:05 AM Response to Reply #72 |
85. Tentative matched exit poll precincts |
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minvis
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Thu Mar-10-05 11:14 AM Response to Reply #85 |
86. Quick correction |
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Blue22
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Thu Mar-10-05 11:25 AM Response to Reply #86 |
87. Thanks |
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liam_laddie
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Thu Mar-10-05 01:14 PM Response to Reply #87 |
88. exit polling Hamilton County |
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minvis
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Thu Mar-10-05 02:00 PM Response to Reply #88 |
89. 2nd Congressional District |
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minvis
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Thu Mar-10-05 04:00 PM Response to Reply #88 |
90. Got a reply back from Clermont County |
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minvis
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Thu Mar-10-05 06:07 PM Response to Reply #90 |
91. Believe it is precinct 98 |
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kiwi_expat
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Thu Mar-10-05 08:27 PM Response to Reply #85 |
92. Congratulations minvis, Blue22, and liam_laddie on your great work! |
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kiwi_expat
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Mon Mar-07-05 11:29 PM Response to Original message |
79. BIG WORRY: Exit poll precincts might all be defined as "unsafe to hack" |
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minvis
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Tue Mar-08-05 12:13 AM Response to Reply #79 |
80. Perhaps, but |
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minvis
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Wed Mar-09-05 03:04 PM Response to Original message |
81. Here's the Hamilton County exit poll precincts |
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skids
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Sat Mar-12-05 02:55 AM Response to Original message |
93. Figured out NEP precinct # to Ohio county, data here: |
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kiwi_expat
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Sat Mar-12-05 08:29 AM Response to Reply #93 |
94. Could this be the sequence for matching precincts with the NEP list? |
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Blue22
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Sat Mar-12-05 09:03 AM Response to Reply #93 |
95. Great work Skids! Match_list so far |
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kiwi_expat
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Sat Mar-12-05 01:44 PM Response to Reply #95 |
96. I'm really disappointed that my sequence (see 94, above) didn't match |
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Blue22
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Sat Mar-12-05 02:35 PM Response to Reply #96 |
97. All our matches are uncertain, but the first four look good |
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liam_laddie
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Sat Mar-12-05 03:00 PM Response to Reply #96 |
98. Cin'ti. 22-E, CD 1 |
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kiwi_expat
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Sat Mar-12-05 03:21 PM Response to Reply #98 |
100. "Skids has done an amazing job...." |
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kiwi_expat
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Sat Mar-12-05 03:46 PM Response to Reply #95 |
102. It looks as though Skids' hunch was correct: the sequence is by city name |
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minvis
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Sat Mar-12-05 03:53 PM Response to Reply #102 |
104. I'm not so sure |
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kiwi_expat
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Sat Mar-12-05 04:03 PM Response to Reply #104 |
105. Fairfax is in an area bounded on three sides by Cincinnati. |
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Blue22
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Sat Mar-12-05 03:13 PM Response to Reply #93 |
99. Suggested Priority List for Decoding remaining precincts |
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minvis
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Sat Mar-12-05 03:41 PM Response to Reply #99 |
101. Precinct 9 seems fishy |
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Blue22
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Sat Mar-12-05 03:51 PM Response to Reply #101 |
103. Bethel Village: Fishy, yes, important, probably not |
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kiwi_expat
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Sat Mar-12-05 05:52 PM Response to Reply #93 |
107. Precinct 120 is probably Williams |
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skids
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Sat Mar-12-05 04:06 PM Response to Original message |
106. The missing numbers. |
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liam_laddie
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Mon Mar-14-05 12:51 PM Response to Reply #106 |
121. missng precinct numbers? |
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kiwi_expat
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Tue Mar-15-05 12:11 AM Response to Reply #121 |
122. Almost an exact sequence. Almost. |
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minvis
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Tue Mar-15-05 12:58 AM Response to Reply #122 |
123. I think I have it for you. |
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kiwi_expat
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Tue Mar-15-05 02:53 AM Response to Reply #123 |
124. THANK YOU, MINVIS !!! |
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Blue22
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Tue Mar-15-05 07:26 AM Response to Reply #123 |
125. Whoa. Nice work Minvis and Kiwi |
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skids
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Tue Mar-15-05 01:45 PM Response to Reply #123 |
126. Perfect. |
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minvis
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Sat Mar-12-05 07:52 PM Response to Original message |
108. Here's the latest matches for CD's 1 & 2 |
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Blue22
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Sun Mar-13-05 11:02 AM Response to Reply #108 |
109. We'll need actual and other info for further investigation |
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Blue22
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Sun Mar-13-05 11:45 AM Response to Reply #108 |
110. Updated/revised priority list--We are on the right track |
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kiwi_expat
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Wed Mar-23-05 07:15 AM Response to Reply #110 |
137. Maybe Anderson is the first place we should canvas in Hamilton County |
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kiwi_expat
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Wed Mar-23-05 09:10 AM Response to Reply #137 |
138. Might the sample-adjustment weight be = 40/sample ? |
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liam_laddie
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Wed Mar-23-05 10:39 AM Response to Reply #137 |
139. Anderson JJ, etc |
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kiwi_expat
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Wed Mar-23-05 08:13 PM Response to Reply #110 |
140. Cincy-4M and Sharonville have biggest changes - using sample-adj raw |
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kiwi_expat
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Fri Mar-25-05 12:15 AM Response to Reply #110 |
141. Sorry for missing the obvious.... |
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kiwi_expat
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Fri Mar-25-05 10:08 PM Response to Reply #141 |
143. Please cancel the request for another spreadsheet. :-) |
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kiwi_expat
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Fri Apr-08-05 02:42 AM Response to Reply #110 |
144. NEP #52 is even more of an anomaly than we thought |
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Blue22
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Sun Mar-13-05 01:18 PM Response to Original message |
111. Shortly we'll move to final phase: Much more info needed |
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liam_laddie
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Sun Mar-13-05 04:54 PM Response to Reply #111 |
112. researching more Ohio counties |
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skids
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Sun Mar-13-05 05:09 PM Response to Reply #112 |
114. canvass reports. |
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kiwi_expat
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Thu Mar-17-05 11:55 PM Response to Reply #114 |
129. Skids, do you know how much it might cost to manually recount a precinct? |
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kiwi_expat
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Fri Mar-18-05 09:23 PM Response to Reply #129 |
131. Answer from adolfo, #3 on "Recount statutes for all 50 states" thread: |
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skids
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Fri Mar-18-05 11:01 PM Response to Reply #129 |
132. No, I don't. |
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kiwi_expat
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Mon Apr-18-05 09:36 PM Response to Reply #114 |
153. Can we get separate Ohio "Early Voters" canvass totals? |
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Blue22
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Sun Mar-13-05 07:17 PM Response to Reply #112 |
116. Thanks |
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kiwi_expat
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Sun Mar-13-05 08:42 PM Response to Reply #112 |
117. Do you have some doubt that Fairfax is precinct 55? |
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kiwi_expat
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Sun Mar-13-05 10:13 PM Response to Reply #111 |
120. Can we inspect the actual ballots using FOIL? |
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Time for change
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Sun Mar-13-05 09:16 PM Response to Original message |
118. It doesn't matter what the historical percentage is |
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southwood
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Fri Mar-18-05 07:45 PM Response to Original message |
130. This thread is extremely important and definitely deserves a |
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Blue22
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Fri Mar-18-05 11:21 PM Response to Original message |
133. Mitovsky's "Exuberant Kerry survey responder" identified |
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kiwi_expat
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Sun Mar-20-05 07:13 PM Response to Reply #133 |
134. Thank you for the NEP Ohio survey Excel spreadsheets ! |
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LatePeriduct
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Fri Mar-25-05 02:16 AM Response to Original message |
142. 2042 people of the |
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TruthIsAll
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Sat Apr-09-05 11:08 PM Response to Reply #142 |
147. Not so. They are separate numbers. 2042 is for STATE only |
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TruthIsAll
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Sat Apr-09-05 11:05 PM Response to Original message |
146. Party ID Exit Poll Probabilities |
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kiwi_expat
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Wed Apr-13-05 06:38 AM Response to Original message |
148. So far, the names of 10 Ohio NEP precincts have been identified - |
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minvis
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Wed Apr-13-05 12:49 PM Response to Original message |
149. Cuyahoga County NEP Precincts |
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TruthIsAll
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Wed Apr-13-05 02:19 PM Response to Reply #149 |
150. 1.02% deviation to Bush |
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minvis
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Wed Apr-13-05 02:28 PM Response to Reply #150 |
151. Cleveland numbers are switched |
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TruthIsAll
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Wed Apr-13-05 03:11 PM Response to Reply #151 |
152. Thanks, Fixed it. |
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berniew1
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Thu Apr-21-05 09:12 PM Response to Reply #151 |
156. -- |
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kiwi_expat
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Fri Apr-29-05 07:23 AM Response to Reply #150 |
158. Corrected Cuyahoga table |
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LatePeriduct
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Mon Apr-18-05 11:47 PM Response to Original message |
154. kick |
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kiwi_expat
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Thu Apr-21-05 07:36 AM Response to Original message |
155. Compare NEP precinct to canvass POLLING PLACE |
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kiwi_expat
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Thu Apr-28-05 12:48 AM Response to Original message |
157. Hamilton County: 3 NEP data priority-sequences |
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kiwi_expat
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Sun May-01-05 06:44 AM Response to Original message |
159. Hamilton and Cuyahoga precincts with BIG deviations are NEP-national |
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kiwi_expat
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Mon May-02-05 01:44 AM Response to Reply #159 |
163. Sorry. The HC deviations should be expressed as negative. |
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kiwi_expat
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Thu Jun-30-05 12:42 AM Response to Reply #163 |
167. The corresponding Hamilton precincts' WPEs are -28%, -12%, and -9% |
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kiwi_expat
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Thu Jul-07-05 06:33 AM Response to Reply #167 |
177. After further reading of the E-M Report, I have to conclude... |
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kiwi_expat
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Thu Jul-07-05 07:55 PM Response to Reply #167 |
178. Those Ham. and Cuy. WPEs are correct, after all. |
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kiwi_expat
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Fri Oct-21-05 03:45 PM Response to Reply #167 |
180. CORRECTION: corresponding Hamilton precincts' WPEs are -56, -24, and -18 |
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Name removed
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Sun May-01-05 08:24 PM Response to Original message |
160. Deleted message |
kiwi_expat
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Sun May-01-05 10:02 PM Response to Reply #160 |
161. Blue22 has kindly offered to e-mail his Ohio NEP spreadsheets.... |
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Name removed
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Sun May-01-05 10:08 PM Response to Reply #161 |
162. Deleted message |
kiwi_expat
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Mon May-02-05 08:09 AM Response to Original message |
164. Clermont: NEP-raw vs. precinct and polling-place actual votes |
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minvis
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Wed May-11-05 04:59 PM Response to Original message |
165. We have the Summit County NEP precincts |
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Ouabache
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Thu Jun-02-05 08:46 PM Response to Original message |
166. discrepancies between 2000 2004 county percentages? |
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minvis
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Thu Jun-30-05 11:26 AM Response to Original message |
168. Looking forward to Liam_laddie's report |
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Bill Bored
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Fri Jul-01-05 01:39 AM Response to Reply #168 |
170. Hey minvis, answer something for me please: |
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minvis
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Fri Jul-01-05 10:22 AM Response to Reply #170 |
171. Only Absentees are marked |
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Bill Bored
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Fri Jul-01-05 12:31 PM Response to Reply #171 |
173. I look forward to Liam's report but |
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autorank
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Fri Jul-01-05 01:28 AM Response to Original message |
169. I love this thread! It's just pure inductive reasoning in action. |
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liam_laddie
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Fri Jul-01-05 12:10 PM Response to Reply #169 |
172. Punch-card inspection Hamilton County 6-30-05 |
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Bill Bored
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Fri Jul-01-05 12:56 PM Response to Reply #172 |
174. Thanks so much for continuing this effort LL! |
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kiwi_expat
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Tue Jul-05-05 01:21 AM Response to Reply #172 |
175. Thanks, Liam ! |
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KaliTracy
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Tue Jul-05-05 08:43 PM Response to Reply #172 |
176. thank you for the update Liam_Laddie. What you've been doing for |
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kiwi_expat
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Thu Sep-22-05 07:55 PM Response to Original message |
179. kick (to keep alive) n/t |
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