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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 03:21 PM
Original message
Ohio Exit Poll Raw Data
I downloaded the exit poll data for Ohio from the University of Michigan ftp site found at this DU board.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

What I found in raw numbers is that 2042 people were interviewed by the exit poll. 1092 of them said they voted for Kerry, 924 said they voted for Bush. The other 26 people either voted for other candidates, did not vote or failed to tell the interviewees who they voted for. By the way that breaks out to 53.48% that said they voted for Kerry, 45.25% that said they voted for Bush.

I next looked at what the ratio of political party ID of those who were in the exit poll. The ratio was 37% Democratic, 33% Republican, 30% Independent. I should note, however, that the 30% Independent percentage was obtained by including everyone who said they were Independents along with anyone who said Other or did not note at all what their party ID was. The vote breakdown within those party IDs were as follows. 91% of Democrats voted for Kerry, 94% of Republicans voted for Bush and 59% of Independents voted for Kerry.

With these numbers, I then tested out how the numbers would have changed with more Republicans being surveyed. First, I looked at a split of 34% Republican, 33% Democrat and 33% Independent. This still gave Kerry a lead of 51.5% to 48.5%. Only when I switched the Democratic and Republican percentages to 37% Republican, 33% Democrat and 30% Independent did Bush come out ahead, albeit barely, 50.1% to 49.9%. A virtual dead heat.

What I don't know, and maybe someone like TIA can find this out, is what the party ID percentage was historically in Ohio.
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 03:36 PM
Response to Original message
1. Indeed that is the excuse the GOP is selling - that they are the majority
Edited on Fri Feb-18-05 03:37 PM by papau
party and prior surveys just did not pick up that fact.

Funny how the party switch only occurred in Eastern States that were close.
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Igel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 03:38 PM
Response to Original message
2. Here;s one link,
For post-911, not 2004.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=750 Scroll maybe 3/4 of the way down, it's in a chart: 31-35, repub-dem.

It doesn't match the 33-37 repub/dem percentages, but then again, your numbers aren't really from a random sample of the Ohio populace, and the link's numbers are for all registered voters, not just those who voted last November.
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 03:44 PM
Response to Original message
3. Glad someone else is also looking at this.
Edited on Fri Feb-18-05 03:49 PM by skids
Have all the data downloaded, and an idea for an analysis, but haven't got to it yet.

Look at the weights. They show you who our so-called "non-responders" were supposedly. People with high weights are the ones that Mitofski claims did not respond, or who were under-represented to begin with in the precinct sampling.

Working with party ID and turnout is a bit dicey. It doesn't prove much, since the numbers change a lot over 4 years.


Oh, and people who voted in Ohio and saw an exit poller, please drop a note here and tell us the county/polling place where you voted...

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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 04:04 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Weights
The only common link to high weighting is the size of the sample of the precincts. Most of the precincts had between 40 and 60 respondents, but the ones with highest weights were precincts where only 20-30 people took the exit poll.
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 04:35 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Have you looked at weights within precincts?

Have you tried factoring out the precinct-wide weight?

Also, are there any threads anywhere where people have been working on this? There was the initial thread when the data got released, but that sunk pretty quick. I'd like to see what other people are doing, if they are doing anything...

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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 05:48 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. I'm looking
I haven't seen anything yet that is causing the weight fluctuations within each precinct. It is not party ID, presidential vote, senate vote, geographic region, city, suburbs or rural, income, etc., but I will look into it more in depth. Hopefully, this weekend.
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 06:17 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. It's the Senior vote
Believe it or not, the within precinct additional weighting is linked to older voters. Voters 60 and over were weighted significantly more than others within the same precinct.
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 11:11 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. If that's the case...
Then I am betting that the weights in the file are not the "final" weights, but rather the ones from an earlier release of the data.

Reason being, that would have been weighted based on completion rate, and the elderly were the group with the lowest completion rate, which would have resulted in the highest weight.

Perhaps I'll sum it up tomorrow and verify.

That would be kind of funny considering the crosstabs are, I believe, the final weighting.

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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-22-05 12:12 AM
Response to Reply #9
135. The senior vote might be weighted more because of refusals....
and missed persons. Mitofsky says that he weights for refusals and missed persons within a precinct.

It appears that the data (or at least the portion of the data in Blue22's spreadsheets) is Mitofsky's "final" exit poll data: The "raw" Kerry/Bush fields show a Kerry lead that is reversed in the "weighted" Kerry/Bush fields.

Perhaps the senior vote could be used as a control to help us identify how much of the weighting is due to Mitofsky's final switchero of the Kerry-Bush vote.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 09:38 PM
Response to Reply #5
119. Here's a link
to a thread which is an analysis that I did of the Mitofski/Edison report, which I posted at the Velvet revolution:

http://www.velvetrevolution.us/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=1...

Further down on that thread is another link to a similar report by a group of statisticians from uscountvotes.org:

http://www.uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/USCountVotes...


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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-28-05 12:37 AM
Response to Reply #3
54. Skids or minvis, please start a new thread: "All OHIO DUers please read"
"...people who voted in Ohio and saw an exit poller, please drop a note here and tell us the county/polling place where you voted..."

I notice that someone suggested also posting on the Ohio forum. Good idea.

Cheers.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-01-05 08:18 PM
Response to Reply #54
61. Is it useful to identify (some) precincts that did NOT have exit polls?
I put this on the GD Politics forum:

"QUESTION for all OHIO DUers: Was there an exit poll interviewer at your polling place?..."

There have been 5 responses - all "no" - in about an hour.



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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-01-05 10:57 PM
Response to Reply #61
63. Yes
Especially if it was anywhere in S.W. Ohio since that is where we are concentrating now.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-02-05 08:42 PM
Response to Reply #63
69. I have just posted questions (on several forums) about SW Ohio voting.
I have also sent a message to CASE Ohio, asking if anyone knows of any specific precincts which had NEP exit polls.

minvis, would you like me to send messages on this stuff to your inbox, instead of posting it here? How do I do that?
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-02-05 11:34 PM
Response to Reply #69
70. Just PM me
You can do that my going to the Discussion Forums main page. Go to the link Profiles and look for my user name. You can send a personal message or e-mail to me.
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-09-05 03:42 PM
Response to Reply #63
82. SW OH Hamilton County Ward 11-E, I did not see an exit poller
Edited on Wed Mar-09-05 03:48 PM by rosebud57
at my precinct. Krueck Center on McMillan. Are exit pollers easy to spot?
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-09-05 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #82
83. They should be
Thanks for the info. I finally did get a list of the Hamilton County precincts that had exit pollers. What I'm trying to find is a map of what the precinct boundaries are in Cincinnati. Do you know where I could find that?
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-09-05 05:30 PM
Response to Reply #83
84. I can check Hamilton County BoE, have you contacted any Hamilton
County dems? Having insiders seek information might be most fruitful.

http://www.hamiltoncountydems.org/
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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 04:52 PM
Response to Original message
6. 38% Dem, 37% Pub, 26% Indy.


According to the 2000 Exit Polls (I know - that's 101%):

http://www.msnbc.com/m/d2k/g/polls.asp?office=P&state=O...

37%D, 37%R, 26%I in 1996.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/OHPxp.html

Seems pretty consistent...




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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 05:57 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Kerry still ahead
With those breakdowns, it would work out to a 51.2% total for Kerry and 48.7% for Bush.
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Chi Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-23-05 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #6
39. Maybe it's me...but the 2000 numbers don't match the link.
Edited on Wed Feb-23-05 05:07 PM by Chi
This is what the MSNBC page said.

39 Democrat
35 Republican
27 Independent

Thought I might be missing something.

(On edit)
They also don't agree with this link either (Ruy Teixeira).

"It doesnt exactly settle the issue, but its worth drawing peoples attention to data on party
identification trends recently released by the Annenberg Election Survey. According to these
data, based on 45,000 interviews of registered voters (RVs) conducted from December 1999
through January 2001, Democratic identifiers led Republican identifiers by 33.7 percent to 29.9
percent, a 3.8 point Democratic advantage, essentially identifical in size to that measured by
Voter News Service in the 2000 exit poll.
Annenberg also conducted about 68,000 interviews of RVs from October 2003 to mid-Novmber,
2004 and found only a slight diminution in the Democratic party identification advantage to 2.8
points (34.6 percent Democratic to 31.8 percent Republican). Thats quite a different story than
the one implied by 2004 NEP exit poll and, given the huge sample sizes in the Annenberg
study, is certainly worthy of consideration."

http://www.tcf.org/publications/pow/nov24_2004.pdf

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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-28-05 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #39
57. Hi Chi (love saying that)...

I was answering the question for Ohio. You are quoting the national numbers...
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Chi Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-02-05 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #57
66. Sorry about that (Chi hangs head and kicks at some pebbles) .n/t
Edited on Wed Mar-02-05 11:12 AM by Chi
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 09:33 PM
Response to Original message
10. It would be possible to match the Ohio exit poll to precinct level data
I've downloaded the survey as well and am pretty certain that
these survey precincts could be matched to their actual
precinct if we had the presidential vote, senate vote and
registration by precinct for all precincts in Ohio.  Once
matched we would know exactly where tabulated votes differed
from the sample within a fairly large margin of error. Does
anyone know where we can find this data?

B-) 
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 10:09 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Not online
I have yet to find precinct level information for the whole state online anywhere. I have already begun looking at the exit poll data to try and figure out which actual precincts exit polls were conducted at. If someone has the information, please post it here.
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 11:09 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. A couple ways to limit the search.
Look at the district number in the file. Figure out how those map to the state districts. That will narrow stuff down a bit. In addition there is the "place size" field. That will require a bit of manual effort to use, though.

If we can find it, compare with detailed voter registration information. that includes race, party and age. Unfortunately I doubt the detail will be very good in Ohio.

I have a good deal of precinct-level vote results, but noweher near the whole state.

Actually in North Carolina, this is going to be much easier. I mentioned that earlier here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Mostly, however, we need an aggressive campaign to get DUers who saw exit poll workers to chirp up and tell us where they were.

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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-18-05 11:57 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Looked at the district number already
I've almost completed going through each precinct noted in the Ohio exit poll. The district number, by the way, is the Congressional District number for the state. The place size also helps as it tells you whether it is a city (over 50,000), large city (over 500,000), suburbs, small city (5,000 to 49,999) or rural. I have gone through 4 of the 5 regions that the exit poll divided Ohio into, Cuyahoga County, Northeast, Northwest, Southwest. I still have to go through the Central region which includes Columbus. For each of the precincts I've noted the district number, the place size, average income, party ID breakdown and racial makeup. With the district number and place size, I've been able to narrow many of them down to a couple counties or a few cities, but until I can get a hold of the voter registration information by precinct, I don't know how much farther I can get.

I've got all the raw data imported into an Excel spreadsheet. If you're interested, you can PM me and I can e-mail it to you.
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liam_laddie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-19-05 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. Ohio precinct data
Minvis - I live in Cincinnati, Hamilton County. Perhaps I can research data at our Bd. of Elections if you need details in
this area. I'm a newbie here, not enough posts so I can't send private e-mails yet...reply via this thread, I guess.
Liam_laddie
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-19-05 07:48 PM
Response to Reply #16
19. I might take you up on that
If nothing else, I'd like to get more information on the make up of the city and suburbs of Cincinnati. I also plan on posting a little bit later the information I have on each of the precincts participating in the exit poll. Perhaps you can take a look at some of the ones in the Cincinnati area and see if you can narrow it down any more.

Thanks for your help and welcome to DU!
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-19-05 11:56 PM
Response to Reply #12
21. Have you posted this request in the Ohio Forum?
Maybe they could get other Ohio dem groups to contribute this data from their memberships?
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-20-05 05:26 AM
Response to Reply #21
24. No, I haven't.

I'll gladly do whatever math I can with whatever results we get, but this needs someone who can devote a bit of time just to the publicity angle. Personally, I've got about 5 pots on a 4 burner stove.

Whoever does should note we have a better chance of finding the precincts in North Carolina than we do in Ohio. And rather than spend the effort on asking just people from Ohio, getting data from all states is desirable.


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newyawker99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-19-05 02:41 PM
Response to Reply #10
15. Hi Blue22!!
Welcome to DU!! :toast:
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-19-05 06:48 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. Thanks
Thanks for the welcome.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-28-05 09:44 PM
Response to Reply #10
56. Do you have an idea as to how large that MOE might be? Thanks.
Given the small sample sizes for the precinct exit data, will the MOE possibly be too large to give us a meaningful comparison?

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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-28-05 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #56
58. This is directly from Mitofsky
The error due to sampling for most state exit poll questions is approximately plus or minus 4 percentage points.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-28-05 11:59 PM
Response to Reply #58
59. The MOE would be greater for a precinct than a state, I believe.
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-01-05 12:06 AM
Response to Reply #59
60. You're right
I believe I saw a table in his documentation where with under a 100 respondents it was 6 percent.

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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-19-05 06:58 PM
Response to Original message
18. It's tough slogging but most precinct data is now on-line
I started in the freepers' amen corner of the state (southwest) and found several counties with presidential results by precinct in text files posted. I've sent FOIAs to them asking for the precinct registration by party. It will take some time to do the southwest corner. I'd suggest that we try downloading and formatting the precinct data from the text files (like in Cuyahoga) in an Excel sheet for one congressional district and then see how good we are at identifying the sampled precincts from the exit polls. The precinct data clearly shows which ones are in specific congressional districts so that would help narrow the search. CD10, CD11, CD13 or CD14 might be a good place to start.



B-)
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-19-05 07:51 PM
Response to Reply #18
20. I have information from Clermont and Butler Counties
I got a bunch of info from the Clermont and Butler BOEs. I will, however, slog through the counties that have precinct level data available online. I was just hoping that the SOS had that information by now. I should have known better.
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-20-05 12:17 AM
Response to Reply #20
22. Green recount teams found evidence of fraud or manipulation in many counti
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-20-05 12:38 PM
Response to Reply #20
27. Butler County 11/04 Results in Text/Spreadsheet
I just put downloaded Butler county results into a spreadsheet. If you want a copy send me an e-mail. I also have a FOIA for the registration by party. If you have received the registration by party by precinct data from Butler, I'd appreciate a copy. My format is as follows (You can copy and paste this right into Excel and use Tools->Text to Columns to parse into a spreadsheet):



Precinct No Precinct Name Cong Dist Reg Vote Ballots Pct Badnarik Bush Kerry Peroutka Fingerhut Voinovich Chabot Harris Boehner Hardenbrook
1 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AA 1 448 335 74.78 2 224 103 0 89 231 219 88
2 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AB 1 1,003 745 74.28 3 441 295 0 230 470 425 236
3 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AC 1 1,124 554 49.29 3 293 251 1 183 345 295 197
4 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AD 1 870 493 56.67 0 281 204 1 140 331 296 153
5 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AE 1 675 402 59.56 0 264 132 1 102 285 269 104
6 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AF 1 1,205 496 41.16 0 245 241 0 174 286 232 194
7 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AG 1 1,031 767 74.39 0 502 255 0 196 530 505 199
8 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AH 1 538 290 53.9 1 160 125 0 89 183 149 104
9 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AI 1 628 463 73.73 0 311 141 1 96 332 320 93
10 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AJ 1 411 188 45.74 1 76 104 3 61 104 89 69
20 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BA 1 902 688 76.27 2 429 243 1 174 472 439 193
21 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BB 1 643 514 79.94 0 346 158 2 128 354 317 141
22 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BC 1 1,174 793 67.55 2 477 284 8 227 515 481 238
23 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BD 1 939 426 45.37 2 234 183 2 121 263 226 136
24 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BE 1 665 426 64.06 0 261 158 1 123 268 260 132
25 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BF 1 854 573 67.1 1 382 181 2 157 387 349 165
26 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BG 1 954 519 54.4 2 294 218 1 175 319 305 164
27 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BH 1 707 333 47.1 0 194 134 1 99 209 178 115
35 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CA 1 739 587 79.43 4 400 181 0 136 421 411 132
36 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CB 1 792 484 61.11 0 320 157 4 121 331 308 124
37 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CC 1 875 703 80.34 2 514 184 0 148 520 513 141
38 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CD 1 486 387 79.63 0 298 85 0 66 307 289 72
39 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CE 1 913 681 74.59 0 492 179 2 127 516 480 150
40 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CF 1 838 614 73.27 2 402 207 1 154 430 401 163
41 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CG 1 830 610 73.49 0 423 184 0 125 459 429 138
42 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CH 1 725 515 71.03 0 331 180 0 143 346 322 147
43 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CI 1 959 620 64.65 0 348 269 0 199 390 359 203
44 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CJ 1 545 451 82.75 0 322 124 0 94 339 316 99
45 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CK 1 1,044 856 81.99 1 639 202 0 142 673 633 153
50 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DA 1 814 577 70.88 0 403 165 2 129 427 404 140
51 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DB 1 1,042 806 77.35 1 541 255 4 196 569 545 199
52 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DC 1 876 690 78.77 1 516 167 1 134 519 483 141
53 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DD 1 1,177 766 65.08 0 492 267 1 199 524 487 213
54 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DE 1 743 587 79 0 444 141 0 101 464 421 120
55 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DF 1 821 640 77.95 2 442 185 2 151 452 430 158
56 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DG 1 795 590 74.21 2 420 158 0 124 438 399 133
57 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DH 1 871 685 78.65 2 483 190 2 148 511 487 148
58 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DI 1 700 576 82.29 0 416 151 1 106 439 408 117
59 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DJ 1 757 624 82.43 2 472 147 1 113 486 466 114
200 HAMILTON CITY 2AA 1 737 610 82.77 4 394 203 2 155 423 393 168
201 HAMILTON CITY 2AB 1 1,100 771 70.09 1 523 233 0 187 550 508 198
202 HAMILTON CITY 2AC 1 833 529 63.51 1 312 207 1 159 332 297 171
203 HAMILTON CITY 2AD 1 971 485 49.95 1 258 217 5 154 297 259 169
204 HAMILTON CITY 2AE 1 992 615 62 2 390 207 0 158 420 380 178
205 HAMILTON CITY 2AF 1 715 552 77.2 1 372 174 0 128 402 382 134
206 HAMILTON CITY 2AG 1 821 721 87.82 1 522 182 2 154 539 511 164
207 HAMILTON CITY 2AH 1 1,018 658 64.64 0 410 237 2 200 434 405 205
208 HAMILTON CITY 2AI 1 944 666 70.55 2 403 253 2 202 433 405 216
209 HAMILTON CITY 2AJ 1 1,036 718 69.31 3 418 286 4 201 479 434 224
210 HAMILTON CITY 2AK 1 904 649 71.79 0 431 205 0 165 442 404 189
211 HAMILTON CITY 2AL 1 974 725 74.44 5 448 255 1 206 489 454 216
212 HAMILTON CITY 2AM 1 1,017 788 77.48 2 474 303 0 220 524 456 243
213 HAMILTON CITY 2AN 1 1,123 809 72.04 1 513 279 3 204 553 518 227
214 HAMILTON CITY 2AO 1 1,023 821 80.25 7 536 261 0 207 565 514 241
215 HAMILTON CITY 2AP 1/8 1,004 700 69.72 0 450 236 2 185 475 37 11 415 190
216 HAMILTON CITY 2AQ 1 929 662 71.26 1 421 233 2 183 443 411 187
217 HAMILTON CITY 2AR 1 918 814 88.67 1 600 200 0 148 632 610 165
218 HAMILTON CITY 2AS 1 877 528 60.21 2 305 207 2 170 321 297 177
219 HAMILTON CITY 2AT 1 643 506 78.69 0 338 159 1 128 350 323 146
220 HAMILTON CITY 2AU 1 1,252 846 67.57 3 568 263 1 175 632 585 204
221 HAMILTON CITY 2AV 1 796 646 81.16 1 471 165 0 118 499 480 136
222 HAMILTON CITY 2AW 1 617 532 86.22 0 364 165 0 116 396 355 135
230 HAMILTON CITY 2BA 1 611 349 57.12 2 52 285 0 224 90 72 217
231 HAMILTON CITY 2BB 1 568 314 55.28 0 34 268 2 232 62 53 205
232 HAMILTON CITY 2BC 1 595 326 54.79 1 23 294 0 213 60 41 225
240 HAMILTON CITY 2CA 1 1,033 457 44.24 2 226 223 0 172 254 216 179
241 HAMILTON CITY 2CB 1 792 427 53.91 2 223 190 1 149 253 207 172
242 HAMILTON CITY 2CC 1 862 596 69.14 1 377 206 1 158 407 358 179
250 HAMILTON CITY 2DA 1 643 386 60.03 1 216 163 2 121 245 208 141
251 HAMILTON CITY 2DB 1 815 369 45.28 2 158 205 0 167 173 162 163
252 HAMILTON CITY 2DC 1 794 392 49.37 0 93 293 0 211 139 112 211
253 HAMILTON CITY 2DD 1 784 408 52.04 0 218 188 0 138 253 224 148
260 HAMILTON CITY 2EA 1 883 415 47 2 175 218 1 166 209 188 178
261 HAMILTON CITY 2EB 1 636 326 51.26 0 180 143 0 102 200 174 122
262 HAMILTON CITY 2EC 1 1,080 642 59.44 3 359 271 1 189 408 358 218
270 HAMILTON CITY 2FA 1 991 588 59.33 1 290 283 1 210 333 281 226
271 HAMILTON CITY 2FB 1 1,002 671 66.97 0 410 252 3 203 448 409 222
272 HAMILTON CITY 2FC 1 817 499 61.08 0 299 189 1 139 341 295 162
273 HAMILTON CITY 2FD 1 982 725 73.83 1 440 276 2 197 487 443 220
274 HAMILTON CITY 2FE 1 786 560 71.25 5 316 225 2 173 349 311 196
275 HAMILTON CITY 2FF 1 449 199 44.32 0 118 77 0 56 127 113 62
276 HAMILTON CITY 2FG 1 680 545 80.15 1 360 176 0 138 379 337 159
277 HAMILTON CITY 2FH 1 927 640 69.04 2 388 240 1 187 417 392 189
300 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AA 1 631 405 64.18 2 237 153 1 125 258 232 133
301 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AB 1 877 618 70.47 3 365 238 2 197 386 363 206
302 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AC 1 587 509 86.71 0 275 197 0 145 344 310 169
303 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AD 1 688 556 80.81 2 374 172 1 119 422 414 117
304 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AE 1 1,044 761 72.89 3 471 273 1 242 489 454 239
305 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AF 1 893 462 51.74 0 231 224 0 175 265 223 187
306 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AG 1 683 425 62.23 3 219 193 2 156 254 236 157
307 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AH 1 639 495 77.46 2 294 188 1 159 325 303 159
308 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AI 1 494 240 48.58 0 101 130 0 95 134 116 99
309 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AJ 1 984 452 45.93 2 168 268 0 193 211 174 191
320 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BA 1 554 273 49.28 2 119 146 1 116 149 123 128
321 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BB 1 857 537 62.66 0 107 415 1 322 170 154 324
322 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BC 1 619 332 53.63 0 49 266 0 212 91 63 222
323 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BD 1 768 425 55.34 4 184 228 1 170 232 211 175
324 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BE 1 868 477 54.95 3 159 305 0 250 196 179 236
325 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BF 1 756 420 55.56 0 62 341 2 259 122 87 276
326 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BG 1 564 331 58.69 0 135 190 1 152 156 135 157
327 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BH 1 648 404 62.35 4 188 203 0 153 212 185 161
328 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BI 1 588 377 64.12 0 37 314 1 254 85 76 246
330 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CA 1 519 364 70.13 1 230 123 0 102 248 254 95
331 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CB 1 500 384 76.8 3 269 109 1 79 294 268 88
332 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CC 1 749 567 75.7 4 365 194 1 139 408 392 147
333 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CD 1 635 444 69.92 2 293 142 0 113 313 282 120
334 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CE 1 820 655 79.88 2 424 221 3 168 462 424 191
335 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CF 1 926 771 83.26 3 519 244 1 198 543 507 209
336 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CG 1 709 545 76.87 1 302 232 2 191 321 323 187
337 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CH 1 814 562 69.04 0 321 239 0 179 363 337 192
338 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CI 1 655 513 78.32 3 329 174 0 137 352 332 154
339 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CJ 1 1,130 818 72.39 2 459 340 0 268 499 447 274
340 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CK 1 525 415 79.05 0 268 145 0 110 284 267 108
341 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CL 1 698 576 82.52 0 411 160 0 105 446 420 123
350 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DA 1 891 510 57.24 0 245 250 2 202 274 254 201
351 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DB 1 903 570 63.12 5 297 261 1 207 330 284 219
352 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DC 1 888 588 66.22 1 304 263 2 215 347 311 229
353 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DD 1 601 429 71.38 1 243 181 1 140 274 265 136
354 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DE 1 692 462 66.76 1 243 213 0 166 272 258 169
355 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DF 1 1,205 764 63.4 2 384 358 6 284 432 405 294
356 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DG 1 1,095 637 58.17 6 292 322 0 278 313 294 272
357 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DH 1 924 646 69.91 0 357 274 2 228 389 362 238
400 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AA 1 471 390 82.8 0 267 117 2 89 282 268 89
401 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AB 1 808 503 62.25 3 299 189 0 149 311 279 145
402 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AC 1 753 534 70.92 1 350 179 1 127 376 342 148
403 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AD 1 705 553 78.44 1 403 147 0 132 396 390 120
404 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AE 1 1,049 807 76.93 2 509 284 0 226 556 520 225
405 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AF 1 828 705 85.14 0 488 212 1 164 501 472 166
406 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AG 1 894 721 80.65 3 513 196 0 140 538 511 152
407 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AH 1 919 744 80.96 2 525 202 2 148 557 505 171
408 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AI 1 807 624 77.32 3 459 151 0 139 461 436 147
409 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AJ 1 779 599 76.89 2 454 140 1 120 456 416 117
410 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AK 1 1,084 873 80.54 2 639 225 3 193 648 607 198
411 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AL 1 1,459 1,202 82.39 2 822 347 0 270 875 810 275
412 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AM 1 556 441 79.32 0 318 116 1 83 340 321 87
413 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AN 1 82 61 74.39 0 57 4 0 5 56 56 3
414 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AO 1 1,108 971 87.64 3 716 237 2 194 741 697 198
415 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AP 1 867 711 82.01 1 546 159 0 131 539 509 136
416 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AQ 1 584 514 88.01 0 404 98 1 81 415 389 91
420 HANOVER TWP 4BA 8 229 177 77.29 0 147 24 1 17 153 142 27
421 HANOVER TWP 4BB 1/8 738 614 83.2 0 451 154 1 147 444 432 145 4 3
422 HANOVER TWP 4BC 8 595 503 84.54 0 378 114 2 106 380 375 98
423 HANOVER TWP 4BD 8 915 736 80.44 2 533 189 0 158 541 528 164
424 HANOVER TWP 4BE 8 853 656 76.91 2 435 206 4 187 439 427 182
425 HANOVER TWP 4BF 8 166 120 72.29 0 76 42 0 36 77 80 30
426 HANOVER TWP 4BG 1/8 907 690 76.07 0 479 205 2 173 488 469 177 4 6
427 HANOVER TWP 4BH 8 487 423 86.86 0 320 99 0 86 319 312 96
428 HANOVER TWP 4BI 1/8 409 333 81.42 0 227 105 0 80 233 34 11 174 79
429 HANOVER TWP 4BJ 8 509 405 79.57 0 291 103 0 97 288 283 88
435 MONROE CITY 4CA 1 1,051 770 73.26 0 521 236 2 186 555 514 211
436 MONROE CITY 4CB 1 876 669 76.37 2 462 191 1 177 462 462 167
437 MONROE CITY 4CC 1 1,065 856 80.38 1 614 217 0 154 663 626 164
438 MONROE CITY 5CA 1 984 846 85.98 2 586 240 0 199 617 599 198
439 MONROE CITY 5CB 1 575 428 74.43 2 287 132 1 95 310 290 112
440 MONROE CITY 5CC 1 557 394 70.74 2 281 104 0 73 308 298 80
441 MONROE CITY 5CD 1 1,268 1,083 85.41 4 748 323 0 253 786 753 264
450 LEMON TWP 4CD 1 516 241 46.71 0 145 94 0 78 145 138 72
451 LEMON TWP 4CE 1 659 388 58.88 1 197 182 0 157 210 196 157
452 LIBERTY TWP 4DA 1 972 824 84.77 2 649 169 0 137 652 644 132
453 LIBERTY TWP 4DB 1 1,215 1,003 82.55 2 750 233 2 186 775 758 186
454 LIBERTY TWP 4DC 1 1,043 874 83.8 1 656 209 1 160 670 657 170
455 LIBERTY TWP 4DD 1 991 721 72.75 0 537 173 0 120 567 543 130
456 LIBERTY TWP 4DE 1 830 681 82.05 1 499 173 1 146 501 477 154
457 LIBERTY TWP 4DF 1 1,130 923 81.68 3 748 163 3 113 780 758 126
458 LIBERTY TWP 4DG 1 1,174 923 78.62 0 726 193 2 141 748 726 144
459 LIBERTY TWP 4DH 1 880 661 75.11 0 473 176 4 138 494 493 135
460 LIBERTY TWP 4DI 1 1,834 1,580 86.15 3 1264 295 4 237 1300 1,260 239
461 LIBERTY TWP 4DJ 1 783 625 79.82 3 477 143 1 114 490 481 118
462 LIBERTY TWP 4DK 1 749 567 75.7 0 415 148 0 117 437 430 118
463 LIBERTY TWP 4DL 1 1,007 696 69.12 0 498 192 0 140 538 515 139
464 LIBERTY TWP 4DM 1 497 385 77.46 0 312 73 0 50 321 326 46
465 LIBERTY TWP 4DN 1 628 484 77.07 0 366 114 0 72 398 375 80
466 LIBERTY TWP 4DO 1 1,451 1,309 90.21 3 1015 284 2 185 1067 1,028 199
467 LIBERTY TWP 4DP 1 1,028 818 79.57 2 613 193 1 133 646 613 149
468 LIBERTY TWP 4DQ 1 1,025 693 67.61 1 519 168 1 133 539 534 128
469 LIBERTY TWP 4DR 1 609 454 74.55 1 355 96 1 72 367 345 76
470 LIBERTY TWP 4DS 1 719 542 75.38 0 390 144 1 108 412 400 114
471 LIBERTY TWP 4DT 1 1,005 878 87.36 2 690 180 1 136 715 708 137
475 TRENTON CITY 4EA 1 992 781 78.73 2 500 266 0 218 512 499 208
476 TRENTON CITY 4EB 1 1,175 961 81.79 2 679 276 0 215 703 678 218
477 TRENTON CITY 4EC 1 816 596 73.04 2 390 201 0 164 402 388 167
478 TRENTON CITY 4ED 1 1,011 689 68.15 3 415 257 1 210 447 407 207
479 TRENTON CITY 5EA 1 529 444 83.93 30 291 118 0 127 294 270 131
480 TRENTON CITY 5EB 1 1,129 765 67.76 0 489 262 0 210 529 499 213
481 TRENTON CITY 5EC 1 912 730 80.04 2 521 199 2 172 531 512 175
485 MADISON TWP 4EE 1 1,018 810 79.57 3 572 226 0 195 585 547 209
486 MADISON TWP 4EF 1 890 530 59.55 0 296 220 0 176 318 297 166
487 MADISON TWP 4EG 1 748 576 77.01 1 412 154 0 131 407 397 131
488 MADISON TWP 4EH 1 980 733 74.8 2 467 252 2 231 474 467 224
489 MADISON TWP 4EI 1 942 727 77.18 1 483 231 3 192 498 471 208
490 MADISON TWP 4EJ 1 548 405 73.91 2 275 123 1 117 271 270 110
491 MADISON TWP 4EK 1 465 357 76.77 0 229 123 0 89 254 227 95
495 MILFORD TWP 4FA 1 682 563 82.55 0 374 177 2 152 379 360 152
496 MILFORD TWP 4FB 1 611 497 81.34 3 343 146 1 115 362 341 126
497 MILFORD TWP 4FC 1 910 730 80.22 4 474 230 2 181 501 456 196
498 MILFORD TWP 4FD 1 188 108 57.45 2 69 35 0 30 75 68 29
500 MORGAN TWP 4GA 8 542 426 78.6 0 327 95 0 76 333 335 77
501 MORGAN TWP 4GB 8 604 452 74.83 1 334 116 0 86 346 332 91
502 MORGAN TWP 4GC 8 979 774 79.06 2 598 167 1 127 609 595 137
503 MORGAN TWP 4GD 8 1,071 830 77.5 0 650 168 3 131 673 675 130
504 MORGAN TWP 4GE 8 823 639 77.64 1 497 135 0 116 502 506 106
510 OXFORD CITY 4HA 1 664 301 45.33 0 148 152 0 102 176 145 110
511 OXFORD CITY 4HB 1 1,287 664 51.59 3 260 396 0 292 305 245 299
512 OXFORD CITY 4HC 1 1,082 853 78.84 3 332 508 0 387 428 381 406
513 OXFORD CITY 4HD 1 690 392 56.81 1 146 239 0 196 174 140 208
514 OXFORD CITY 4HE 1 404 207 51.24 2 73 131 0 100 93 72 107
515 OXFORD CITY 4HF 1 844 348 41.23 1 148 197 0 128 173 130 130
516 OXFORD CITY 4HG 1 671 315 46.94 5 156 149 2 115 184 148 121
517 OXFORD CITY 4HH 1 792 361 45.58 1 122 233 1 178 157 124 174
518 OXFORD CITY 4HI 1 1,136 620 54.58 1 276 334 3 261 319 263 286
519 OXFORD CITY 4HJ 1 696 570 81.9 3 273 287 0 210 335 311 219
520 OXFORD CITY 4HK 1 1,522 620 40.74 3 329 287 0 215 353 292 221
521 OXFORD CITY 4HL 1 1,160 444 38.28 1 191 251 0 173 214 160 185
522 OXFORD CITY 4HM 1 874 649 74.26 2 283 356 1 300 323 288 321
523 OXFORD CITY 5HA 1 911 495 54.34 0 220 269 1 197 267 227 204
524 OXFORD CITY 5HB 1 401 295 73.57 1 114 176 0 140 143 125 142
525 OXFORD TWP 4HN 1 773 612 79.17 0 367 231 4 178 398 376 184
526 OXFORD TWP 4HO 1 127 76 59.84 1 45 26 1 22 50 51 18
527 OXFORD TWP 4HP 1 974 789 81.01 4 357 415 6 337 418 378 346
530 REILY TWP 4IA 8 882 697 79.02 2 496 182 3 166 495 486 174
531 REILY TWP 4IB 8 1,102 883 80.13 4 560 296 2 239 588 551 257
535 ROSS TWP 4JA 8 692 592 85.55 0 455 125 1 116 452 456 111
536 ROSS TWP 4JB 8 864 691 79.98 2 541 140 1 100 560 553 105
537 ROSS TWP 4JC 8 958 789 82.36 2 571 203 1 179 580 575 176
538 ROSS TWP 4JD 8 797 618 77.54 3 471 126 3 111 479 476 105
539 ROSS TWP 4JE 8 362 264 72.93 1 184 70 0 56 194 191 58
540 ROSS TWP 4JF 8 932 611 65.56 0 409 198 0 156 431 423 159
541 ROSS TWP 4JG 8 456 347 76.1 1 252 91 1 74 255 257 77
545 ST CLAIR TWP 4KA 1 761 427 56.11 0 233 180 1 144 249 217 150
546 ST CLAIR TWP 4KB 1 463 358 77.32 1 228 126 1 98 239 221 102
547 ST CLAIR TWP 4KC 1 514 331 64.4 1 217 108 0 83 233 210 95
548 ST CLAIR TWP 4KD 1 518 376 72.59 1 244 123 3 97 255 230 110
549 ST CLAIR TWP 4KE 1 650 384 59.08 0 234 133 1 102 244 216 111
550 ST CLAIR TWP 4KF 1 815 499 61.23 2 312 177 0 145 327 282 156
551 ST CLAIR TWP 4KG 1 189 143 75.66 0 100 37 1 30 102 92 38
552 ST CLAIR TWP 4KH 1 715 557 77.9 0 394 156 0 138 387 382 126
600 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LA 1 887 612 69 0 403 201 1 145 432 410 160
601 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LB 1 1,068 839 78.56 0 618 214 1 148 656 627 160
602 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LC 1 802 622 77.56 0 459 160 0 106 489 468 118
603 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LD 1 1,144 888 77.62 3 622 255 2 177 675 655 178
604 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LE 1 723 471 65.15 1 333 131 0 111 339 324 114
605 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LF 1 875 652 74.51 2 456 186 1 156 481 435 174
606 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LG 1 888 677 76.24 0 492 179 0 136 509 499 134
607 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LH 1 799 632 79.1 0 475 154 0 122 492 482 120
608 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LI 1 826 598 72.4 0 410 182 0 145 423 406 133
609 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LJ 1 703 528 75.11 2 376 143 1 110 399 377 116
610 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LK 1 908 724 79.74 2 517 197 0 165 525 508 170
611 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LL 1 1,086 837 77.07 1 570 263 0 179 625 614 179
612 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LM 1 866 644 74.36 0 472 168 0 124 500 483 134
613 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LN 1 701 503 71.75 0 346 153 0 108 385 381 100
614 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LO 1 1,022 769 75.24 3 580 172 3 129 614 605 132
615 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LP 1 1,097 774 70.56 0 535 233 0 174 574 567 170
616 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LQ 1 907 754 83.13 1 561 183 3 140 574 555 140
617 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LR 1 715 551 77.06 0 404 141 0 104 427 420 98
618 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LS 1 1,187 769 64.79 5 512 244 2 192 539 505 199
619 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LT 1 1,081 833 77.06 4 637 180 5 131 664 636 132
620 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LU 1 733 585 79.81 1 418 164 0 118 449 424 133
621 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LV 1 962 753 78.27 1 573 175 1 121 609 605 118
622 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LW 1 1,124 844 75.09 1 635 199 2 141 663 647 142
623 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LX 1 993 776 78.15 1 566 201 1 135 614 588 154
624 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LY 1 1,080 806 74.63 1 589 214 0 160 616 603 165
625 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LZ 1 702 520 74.07 0 391 126 1 78 427 407 85
626 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LA 1 710 533 75.07 0 404 127 0 98 427 421 96
627 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LB 1 823 506 61.48 1 338 167 0 106 371 358 114
628 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LC 1 1,683 1,314 78.07 0 876 418 0 330 931 878 337
629 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LD 1 838 430 51.31 1 211 211 0 170 248 224 180
630 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LE 1 776 586 75.52 1 425 157 0 109 460 444 114
631 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LF 1 574 454 79.09 0 330 118 0 76 354 350 81
632 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LG 1 759 511 67.33 1 336 167 3 130 357 355 132
633 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LH 1 677 512 75.63 1 349 154 0 111 376 356 121
634 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LI 1 912 339 37.17 3 171 164 0 119 202 179 131
635 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LJ 1 638 403 63.17 2 278 123 0 90 298 284 101
636 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LK 1 902 722 80.04 0 533 187 0 131 561 548 132
637 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LL 1 917 646 70.45 4 485 153 0 110 503 484 118
638 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LM 1 837 643 76.82 0 492 144 1 104 512 509 105
639 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LN 1 765 574 75.03 2 413 151 0 108 431 414 111
640 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LO 1 1,067 801 75.07 0 631 162 2 123 659 661 117
641 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LP 1 946 702 74.21 1 502 194 3 136 541 529 140
642 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LQ 1 1,204 937 77.82 2 693 236 0 164 734 724 174
643 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LR 1 1,207 696 57.66 2 378 307 2 223 425 379 251
644 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LS 1 1,032 656 63.57 0 430 221 0 162 470 440 172
700 WAYNE TWP 4MA 1 697 587 84.22 2 411 163 1 137 419 382 154
701 WAYNE TWP 4MB 1 728 610 83.79 1 424 173 3 148 436 431 134
702 WAYNE TWP 4MC 1 372 274 73.66 2 176 86 0 71 187 176 72
703 WAYNE TWP 4MD 1 863 703 81.46 0 499 191 3 161 503 481 167
704 WAYNE TWP 4ME 1 592 456 77.03 2 280 166 0 129 309 293 128
705 WAYNE TWP 4MF 1 51 31 60.78 0 21 9 0 12 17 20 10
800 SHARONVILLE CITY 4NA 1 1,261 679 53.85 3 405 268 1 210 437 403 217
801 SHARONVILLE CITY 4NB 1 679 525 77.32 0 362 160 1 109 407 380 116
B-)
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-20-05 12:46 PM
Response to Reply #20
28. Oops... Butler County Results text revised.
After looking at how the Butler County results text was posted, I think there would be a problem parsing it because Congressional District results could get confused. My bad. This one should work better or you can just e-mail me for the spreadsheet.

Precinct No Precinct Name Cong Dist Reg Vote Ballots Pct Badnarik Bush Kerry Peroutka Fingerhut Voinovich Chabot Harris Boehner Hardenbrook
1 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AA 1 448 335 74.78 2 224 103 0 89 231 0 0 219 88
2 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AB 1 1,003 745 74.28 3 441 295 0 230 470 0 0 425 236
3 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AC 1 1,124 554 49.29 3 293 251 1 183 345 0 0 295 197
4 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AD 1 870 493 56.67 0 281 204 1 140 331 0 0 296 153
5 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AE 1 675 402 59.56 0 264 132 1 102 285 0 0 269 104
6 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AF 1 1,205 496 41.16 0 245 241 0 174 286 0 0 232 194
7 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AG 1 1,031 767 74.39 0 502 255 0 196 530 0 0 505 199
8 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AH 1 538 290 53.9 1 160 125 0 89 183 0 0 149 104
9 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AI 1 628 463 73.73 0 311 141 1 96 332 0 0 320 93
10 FAIRFIELD CITY 1AJ 1 411 188 45.74 1 76 104 3 61 104 0 0 89 69
20 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BA 1 902 688 76.27 2 429 243 1 174 472 0 0 439 193
21 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BB 1 643 514 79.94 0 346 158 2 128 354 0 0 317 141
22 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BC 1 1,174 793 67.55 2 477 284 8 227 515 0 0 481 238
23 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BD 1 939 426 45.37 2 234 183 2 121 263 0 0 226 136
24 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BE 1 665 426 64.06 0 261 158 1 123 268 0 0 260 132
25 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BF 1 854 573 67.1 1 382 181 2 157 387 0 0 349 165
26 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BG 1 954 519 54.4 2 294 218 1 175 319 0 0 305 164
27 FAIRFIELD CITY 1BH 1 707 333 47.1 0 194 134 1 99 209 0 0 178 115
35 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CA 1 739 587 79.43 4 400 181 0 136 421 0 0 411 132
36 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CB 1 792 484 61.11 0 320 157 4 121 331 0 0 308 124
37 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CC 1 875 703 80.34 2 514 184 0 148 520 0 0 513 141
38 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CD 1 486 387 79.63 0 298 85 0 66 307 0 0 289 72
39 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CE 1 913 681 74.59 0 492 179 2 127 516 0 0 480 150
40 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CF 1 838 614 73.27 2 402 207 1 154 430 0 0 401 163
41 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CG 1 830 610 73.49 0 423 184 0 125 459 0 0 429 138
42 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CH 1 725 515 71.03 0 331 180 0 143 346 0 0 322 147
43 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CI 1 959 620 64.65 0 348 269 0 199 390 0 0 359 203
44 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CJ 1 545 451 82.75 0 322 124 0 94 339 0 0 316 99
45 FAIRFIELD CITY 1CK 1 1,044 856 81.99 1 639 202 0 142 673 0 0 633 153
50 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DA 1 814 577 70.88 0 403 165 2 129 427 0 0 404 140
51 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DB 1 1,042 806 77.35 1 541 255 4 196 569 0 0 545 199
52 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DC 1 876 690 78.77 1 516 167 1 134 519 0 0 483 141
53 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DD 1 1,177 766 65.08 0 492 267 1 199 524 0 0 487 213
54 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DE 1 743 587 79 0 444 141 0 101 464 0 0 421 120
55 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DF 1 821 640 77.95 2 442 185 2 151 452 0 0 430 158
56 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DG 1 795 590 74.21 2 420 158 0 124 438 0 0 399 133
57 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DH 1 871 685 78.65 2 483 190 2 148 511 0 0 487 148
58 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DI 1 700 576 82.29 0 416 151 1 106 439 0 0 408 117
59 FAIRFIELD CITY 1DJ 1 757 624 82.43 2 472 147 1 113 486 0 0 466 114
200 HAMILTON CITY 2AA 1 737 610 82.77 4 394 203 2 155 423 0 0 393 168
201 HAMILTON CITY 2AB 1 1,100 771 70.09 1 523 233 0 187 550 0 0 508 198
202 HAMILTON CITY 2AC 1 833 529 63.51 1 312 207 1 159 332 0 0 297 171
203 HAMILTON CITY 2AD 1 971 485 49.95 1 258 217 5 154 297 0 0 259 169
204 HAMILTON CITY 2AE 1 992 615 62 2 390 207 0 158 420 0 0 380 178
205 HAMILTON CITY 2AF 1 715 552 77.2 1 372 174 0 128 402 0 0 382 134
206 HAMILTON CITY 2AG 1 821 721 87.82 1 522 182 2 154 539 0 0 511 164
207 HAMILTON CITY 2AH 1 1,018 658 64.64 0 410 237 2 200 434 0 0 405 205
208 HAMILTON CITY 2AI 1 944 666 70.55 2 403 253 2 202 433 0 0 405 216
209 HAMILTON CITY 2AJ 1 1,036 718 69.31 3 418 286 4 201 479 0 0 434 224
210 HAMILTON CITY 2AK 1 904 649 71.79 0 431 205 0 165 442 0 0 404 189
211 HAMILTON CITY 2AL 1 974 725 74.44 5 448 255 1 206 489 0 0 454 216
212 HAMILTON CITY 2AM 1 1,017 788 77.48 2 474 303 0 220 524 0 0 456 243
213 HAMILTON CITY 2AN 1 1,123 809 72.04 1 513 279 3 204 553 0 0 518 227
214 HAMILTON CITY 2AO 1 1,023 821 80.25 7 536 261 0 207 565 0 0 514 241
215 HAMILTON CITY 2AP 1/8 1,004 700 69.72 0 450 236 2 185 475 37 11 415 190
216 HAMILTON CITY 2AQ 1 929 662 71.26 1 421 233 2 183 443 0 0 411 187
217 HAMILTON CITY 2AR 1 918 814 88.67 1 600 200 0 148 632 0 0 610 165
218 HAMILTON CITY 2AS 1 877 528 60.21 2 305 207 2 170 321 0 0 297 177
219 HAMILTON CITY 2AT 1 643 506 78.69 0 338 159 1 128 350 0 0 323 146
220 HAMILTON CITY 2AU 1 1,252 846 67.57 3 568 263 1 175 632 0 0 585 204
221 HAMILTON CITY 2AV 1 796 646 81.16 1 471 165 0 118 499 0 0 480 136
222 HAMILTON CITY 2AW 1 617 532 86.22 0 364 165 0 116 396 0 0 355 135
230 HAMILTON CITY 2BA 1 611 349 57.12 2 52 285 0 224 90 0 0 72 217
231 HAMILTON CITY 2BB 1 568 314 55.28 0 34 268 2 232 62 0 0 53 205
232 HAMILTON CITY 2BC 1 595 326 54.79 1 23 294 0 213 60 0 0 41 225
240 HAMILTON CITY 2CA 1 1,033 457 44.24 2 226 223 0 172 254 0 0 216 179
241 HAMILTON CITY 2CB 1 792 427 53.91 2 223 190 1 149 253 0 0 207 172
242 HAMILTON CITY 2CC 1 862 596 69.14 1 377 206 1 158 407 0 0 358 179
250 HAMILTON CITY 2DA 1 643 386 60.03 1 216 163 2 121 245 0 0 208 141
251 HAMILTON CITY 2DB 1 815 369 45.28 2 158 205 0 167 173 0 0 162 163
252 HAMILTON CITY 2DC 1 794 392 49.37 0 93 293 0 211 139 0 0 112 211
253 HAMILTON CITY 2DD 1 784 408 52.04 0 218 188 0 138 253 0 0 224 148
260 HAMILTON CITY 2EA 1 883 415 47 2 175 218 1 166 209 0 0 188 178
261 HAMILTON CITY 2EB 1 636 326 51.26 0 180 143 0 102 200 0 0 174 122
262 HAMILTON CITY 2EC 1 1,080 642 59.44 3 359 271 1 189 408 0 0 358 218
270 HAMILTON CITY 2FA 1 991 588 59.33 1 290 283 1 210 333 0 0 281 226
271 HAMILTON CITY 2FB 1 1,002 671 66.97 0 410 252 3 203 448 0 0 409 222
272 HAMILTON CITY 2FC 1 817 499 61.08 0 299 189 1 139 341 0 0 295 162
273 HAMILTON CITY 2FD 1 982 725 73.83 1 440 276 2 197 487 0 0 443 220
274 HAMILTON CITY 2FE 1 786 560 71.25 5 316 225 2 173 349 0 0 311 196
275 HAMILTON CITY 2FF 1 449 199 44.32 0 118 77 0 56 127 0 0 113 62
276 HAMILTON CITY 2FG 1 680 545 80.15 1 360 176 0 138 379 0 0 337 159
277 HAMILTON CITY 2FH 1 927 640 69.04 2 388 240 1 187 417 0 0 392 189
300 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AA 1 631 405 64.18 2 237 153 1 125 258 0 0 232 133
301 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AB 1 877 618 70.47 3 365 238 2 197 386 0 0 363 206
302 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AC 1 587 509 86.71 0 275 197 0 145 344 0 0 310 169
303 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AD 1 688 556 80.81 2 374 172 1 119 422 0 0 414 117
304 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AE 1 1,044 761 72.89 3 471 273 1 242 489 0 0 454 239
305 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AF 1 893 462 51.74 0 231 224 0 175 265 0 0 223 187
306 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AG 1 683 425 62.23 3 219 193 2 156 254 0 0 236 157
307 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AH 1 639 495 77.46 2 294 188 1 159 325 0 0 303 159
308 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AI 1 494 240 48.58 0 101 130 0 95 134 0 0 116 99
309 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3AJ 1 984 452 45.93 2 168 268 0 193 211 0 0 174 191
320 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BA 1 554 273 49.28 2 119 146 1 116 149 0 0 123 128
321 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BB 1 857 537 62.66 0 107 415 1 322 170 0 0 154 324
322 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BC 1 619 332 53.63 0 49 266 0 212 91 0 0 63 222
323 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BD 1 768 425 55.34 4 184 228 1 170 232 0 0 211 175
324 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BE 1 868 477 54.95 3 159 305 0 250 196 0 0 179 236
325 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BF 1 756 420 55.56 0 62 341 2 259 122 0 0 87 276
326 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BG 1 564 331 58.69 0 135 190 1 152 156 0 0 135 157
327 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BH 1 648 404 62.35 4 188 203 0 153 212 0 0 185 161
328 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3BI 1 588 377 64.12 0 37 314 1 254 85 0 0 76 246
330 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CA 1 519 364 70.13 1 230 123 0 102 248 0 0 254 95
331 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CB 1 500 384 76.8 3 269 109 1 79 294 0 0 268 88
332 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CC 1 749 567 75.7 4 365 194 1 139 408 0 0 392 147
333 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CD 1 635 444 69.92 2 293 142 0 113 313 0 0 282 120
334 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CE 1 820 655 79.88 2 424 221 3 168 462 0 0 424 191
335 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CF 1 926 771 83.26 3 519 244 1 198 543 0 0 507 209
336 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CG 1 709 545 76.87 1 302 232 2 191 321 0 0 323 187
337 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CH 1 814 562 69.04 0 321 239 0 179 363 0 0 337 192
338 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CI 1 655 513 78.32 3 329 174 0 137 352 0 0 332 154
339 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CJ 1 1,130 818 72.39 2 459 340 0 268 499 0 0 447 274
340 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CK 1 525 415 79.05 0 268 145 0 110 284 0 0 267 108
341 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3CL 1 698 576 82.52 0 411 160 0 105 446 0 0 420 123
350 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DA 1 891 510 57.24 0 245 250 2 202 274 0 0 254 201
351 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DB 1 903 570 63.12 5 297 261 1 207 330 0 0 284 219
352 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DC 1 888 588 66.22 1 304 263 2 215 347 0 0 311 229
353 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DD 1 601 429 71.38 1 243 181 1 140 274 0 0 265 136
354 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DE 1 692 462 66.76 1 243 213 0 166 272 0 0 258 169
355 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DF 1 1,205 764 63.4 2 384 358 6 284 432 0 0 405 294
356 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DG 1 1,095 637 58.17 6 292 322 0 278 313 0 0 294 272
357 MIDDLETOWN CITY 3DH 1 924 646 69.91 0 357 274 2 228 389 0 0 362 238
400 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AA 1 471 390 82.8 0 267 117 2 89 282 0 0 268 89
401 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AB 1 808 503 62.25 3 299 189 0 149 311 0 0 279 145
402 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AC 1 753 534 70.92 1 350 179 1 127 376 0 0 342 148
403 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AD 1 705 553 78.44 1 403 147 0 132 396 0 0 390 120
404 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AE 1 1,049 807 76.93 2 509 284 0 226 556 0 0 520 225
405 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AF 1 828 705 85.14 0 488 212 1 164 501 0 0 472 166
406 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AG 1 894 721 80.65 3 513 196 0 140 538 0 0 511 152
407 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AH 1 919 744 80.96 2 525 202 2 148 557 0 0 505 171
408 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AI 1 807 624 77.32 3 459 151 0 139 461 0 0 436 147
409 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AJ 1 779 599 76.89 2 454 140 1 120 456 0 0 416 117
410 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AK 1 1,084 873 80.54 2 639 225 3 193 648 0 0 607 198
411 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AL 1 1,459 1,202 82.39 2 822 347 0 270 875 0 0 810 275
412 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AM 1 556 441 79.32 0 318 116 1 83 340 0 0 321 87
413 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AN 1 82 61 74.39 0 57 4 0 5 56 0 0 56 3
414 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AO 1 1,108 971 87.64 3 716 237 2 194 741 0 0 697 198
415 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AP 1 867 711 82.01 1 546 159 0 131 539 0 0 509 136
416 FAIRFIELD TWP 4AQ 1 584 514 88.01 0 404 98 1 81 415 0 0 389 91
420 HANOVER TWP 4BA 8 229 177 77.29 0 147 24 1 17 153 142 27 0 0
421 HANOVER TWP 4BB 1/8 738 614 83.2 0 451 154 1 147 444 432 145 4 3
422 HANOVER TWP 4BC 8 595 503 84.54 0 378 114 2 106 380 375 98 0 0
423 HANOVER TWP 4BD 8 915 736 80.44 2 533 189 0 158 541 528 164 0 0
424 HANOVER TWP 4BE 8 853 656 76.91 2 435 206 4 187 439 427 182 0 0
425 HANOVER TWP 4BF 8 166 120 72.29 0 76 42 0 36 77 80 30 0 0
426 HANOVER TWP 4BG 1/8 907 690 76.07 0 479 205 2 173 488 469 177 4 6
427 HANOVER TWP 4BH 8 487 423 86.86 0 320 99 0 86 319 312 96 0 0
428 HANOVER TWP 4BI 1/8 409 333 81.42 0 227 105 0 80 233 34 11 174 79
429 HANOVER TWP 4BJ 8 509 405 79.57 0 291 103 0 97 288 283 88 0 0
435 MONROE CITY 4CA 1 1,051 770 73.26 0 521 236 2 186 555 0 0 514 211
436 MONROE CITY 4CB 1 876 669 76.37 2 462 191 1 177 462 0 0 462 167
437 MONROE CITY 4CC 1 1,065 856 80.38 1 614 217 0 154 663 0 0 626 164
438 MONROE CITY 5CA 1 984 846 85.98 2 586 240 0 199 617 0 0 599 198
439 MONROE CITY 5CB 1 575 428 74.43 2 287 132 1 95 310 0 0 290 112
440 MONROE CITY 5CC 1 557 394 70.74 2 281 104 0 73 308 0 0 298 80
441 MONROE CITY 5CD 1 1,268 1,083 85.41 4 748 323 0 253 786 0 0 753 264
450 LEMON TWP 4CD 1 516 241 46.71 0 145 94 0 78 145 0 0 138 72
451 LEMON TWP 4CE 1 659 388 58.88 1 197 182 0 157 210 0 0 196 157
452 LIBERTY TWP 4DA 1 972 824 84.77 2 649 169 0 137 652 0 0 644 132
453 LIBERTY TWP 4DB 1 1,215 1,003 82.55 2 750 233 2 186 775 0 0 758 186
454 LIBERTY TWP 4DC 1 1,043 874 83.8 1 656 209 1 160 670 0 0 657 170
455 LIBERTY TWP 4DD 1 991 721 72.75 0 537 173 0 120 567 0 0 543 130
456 LIBERTY TWP 4DE 1 830 681 82.05 1 499 173 1 146 501 0 0 477 154
457 LIBERTY TWP 4DF 1 1,130 923 81.68 3 748 163 3 113 780 0 0 758 126
458 LIBERTY TWP 4DG 1 1,174 923 78.62 0 726 193 2 141 748 0 0 726 144
459 LIBERTY TWP 4DH 1 880 661 75.11 0 473 176 4 138 494 0 0 493 135
460 LIBERTY TWP 4DI 1 1,834 1,580 86.15 3 1264 295 4 237 1300 0 0 1,260 239
461 LIBERTY TWP 4DJ 1 783 625 79.82 3 477 143 1 114 490 0 0 481 118
462 LIBERTY TWP 4DK 1 749 567 75.7 0 415 148 0 117 437 0 0 430 118
463 LIBERTY TWP 4DL 1 1,007 696 69.12 0 498 192 0 140 538 0 0 515 139
464 LIBERTY TWP 4DM 1 497 385 77.46 0 312 73 0 50 321 0 0 326 46
465 LIBERTY TWP 4DN 1 628 484 77.07 0 366 114 0 72 398 0 0 375 80
466 LIBERTY TWP 4DO 1 1,451 1,309 90.21 3 1015 284 2 185 1067 0 0 1,028 199
467 LIBERTY TWP 4DP 1 1,028 818 79.57 2 613 193 1 133 646 0 0 613 149
468 LIBERTY TWP 4DQ 1 1,025 693 67.61 1 519 168 1 133 539 0 0 534 128
469 LIBERTY TWP 4DR 1 609 454 74.55 1 355 96 1 72 367 0 0 345 76
470 LIBERTY TWP 4DS 1 719 542 75.38 0 390 144 1 108 412 0 0 400 114
471 LIBERTY TWP 4DT 1 1,005 878 87.36 2 690 180 1 136 715 0 0 708 137
475 TRENTON CITY 4EA 1 992 781 78.73 2 500 266 0 218 512 0 0 499 208
476 TRENTON CITY 4EB 1 1,175 961 81.79 2 679 276 0 215 703 0 0 678 218
477 TRENTON CITY 4EC 1 816 596 73.04 2 390 201 0 164 402 0 0 388 167
478 TRENTON CITY 4ED 1 1,011 689 68.15 3 415 257 1 210 447 0 0 407 207
479 TRENTON CITY 5EA 1 529 444 83.93 30 291 118 0 127 294 0 0 270 131
480 TRENTON CITY 5EB 1 1,129 765 67.76 0 489 262 0 210 529 0 0 499 213
481 TRENTON CITY 5EC 1 912 730 80.04 2 521 199 2 172 531 0 0 512 175
485 MADISON TWP 4EE 1 1,018 810 79.57 3 572 226 0 195 585 0 0 547 209
486 MADISON TWP 4EF 1 890 530 59.55 0 296 220 0 176 318 0 0 297 166
487 MADISON TWP 4EG 1 748 576 77.01 1 412 154 0 131 407 0 0 397 131
488 MADISON TWP 4EH 1 980 733 74.8 2 467 252 2 231 474 0 0 467 224
489 MADISON TWP 4EI 1 942 727 77.18 1 483 231 3 192 498 0 0 471 208
490 MADISON TWP 4EJ 1 548 405 73.91 2 275 123 1 117 271 0 0 270 110
491 MADISON TWP 4EK 1 465 357 76.77 0 229 123 0 89 254 0 0 227 95
495 MILFORD TWP 4FA 1 682 563 82.55 0 374 177 2 152 379 0 0 360 152
496 MILFORD TWP 4FB 1 611 497 81.34 3 343 146 1 115 362 0 0 341 126
497 MILFORD TWP 4FC 1 910 730 80.22 4 474 230 2 181 501 0 0 456 196
498 MILFORD TWP 4FD 1 188 108 57.45 2 69 35 0 30 75 0 0 68 29
500 MORGAN TWP 4GA 8 542 426 78.6 0 327 95 0 76 333 335 77 0 0
501 MORGAN TWP 4GB 8 604 452 74.83 1 334 116 0 86 346 332 91 0 0
502 MORGAN TWP 4GC 8 979 774 79.06 2 598 167 1 127 609 595 137 0 0
503 MORGAN TWP 4GD 8 1,071 830 77.5 0 650 168 3 131 673 675 130 0 0
504 MORGAN TWP 4GE 8 823 639 77.64 1 497 135 0 116 502 506 106 0 0
510 OXFORD CITY 4HA 1 664 301 45.33 0 148 152 0 102 176 0 0 145 110
511 OXFORD CITY 4HB 1 1,287 664 51.59 3 260 396 0 292 305 0 0 245 299
512 OXFORD CITY 4HC 1 1,082 853 78.84 3 332 508 0 387 428 0 0 381 406
513 OXFORD CITY 4HD 1 690 392 56.81 1 146 239 0 196 174 0 0 140 208
514 OXFORD CITY 4HE 1 404 207 51.24 2 73 131 0 100 93 0 0 72 107
515 OXFORD CITY 4HF 1 844 348 41.23 1 148 197 0 128 173 0 0 130 130
516 OXFORD CITY 4HG 1 671 315 46.94 5 156 149 2 115 184 0 0 148 121
517 OXFORD CITY 4HH 1 792 361 45.58 1 122 233 1 178 157 0 0 124 174
518 OXFORD CITY 4HI 1 1,136 620 54.58 1 276 334 3 261 319 0 0 263 286
519 OXFORD CITY 4HJ 1 696 570 81.9 3 273 287 0 210 335 0 0 311 219
520 OXFORD CITY 4HK 1 1,522 620 40.74 3 329 287 0 215 353 0 0 292 221
521 OXFORD CITY 4HL 1 1,160 444 38.28 1 191 251 0 173 214 0 0 160 185
522 OXFORD CITY 4HM 1 874 649 74.26 2 283 356 1 300 323 0 0 288 321
523 OXFORD CITY 5HA 1 911 495 54.34 0 220 269 1 197 267 0 0 227 204
524 OXFORD CITY 5HB 1 401 295 73.57 1 114 176 0 140 143 0 0 125 142
525 OXFORD TWP 4HN 1 773 612 79.17 0 367 231 4 178 398 0 0 376 184
526 OXFORD TWP 4HO 1 127 76 59.84 1 45 26 1 22 50 0 0 51 18
527 OXFORD TWP 4HP 1 974 789 81.01 4 357 415 6 337 418 0 0 378 346
530 REILY TWP 4IA 8 882 697 79.02 2 496 182 3 166 495 486 174 0 0
531 REILY TWP 4IB 8 1,102 883 80.13 4 560 296 2 239 588 551 257 0 0
535 ROSS TWP 4JA 8 692 592 85.55 0 455 125 1 116 452 456 111 0 0
536 ROSS TWP 4JB 8 864 691 79.98 2 541 140 1 100 560 553 105 0 0
537 ROSS TWP 4JC 8 958 789 82.36 2 571 203 1 179 580 575 176 0 0
538 ROSS TWP 4JD 8 797 618 77.54 3 471 126 3 111 479 476 105 0 0
539 ROSS TWP 4JE 8 362 264 72.93 1 184 70 0 56 194 191 58 0 0
540 ROSS TWP 4JF 8 932 611 65.56 0 409 198 0 156 431 423 159 0 0
541 ROSS TWP 4JG 8 456 347 76.1 1 252 91 1 74 255 257 77 0 0
545 ST CLAIR TWP 4KA 1 761 427 56.11 0 233 180 1 144 249 0 0 217 150
546 ST CLAIR TWP 4KB 1 463 358 77.32 1 228 126 1 98 239 0 0 221 102
547 ST CLAIR TWP 4KC 1 514 331 64.4 1 217 108 0 83 233 0 0 210 95
548 ST CLAIR TWP 4KD 1 518 376 72.59 1 244 123 3 97 255 0 0 230 110
549 ST CLAIR TWP 4KE 1 650 384 59.08 0 234 133 1 102 244 0 0 216 111
550 ST CLAIR TWP 4KF 1 815 499 61.23 2 312 177 0 145 327 0 0 282 156
551 ST CLAIR TWP 4KG 1 189 143 75.66 0 100 37 1 30 102 0 0 92 38
552 ST CLAIR TWP 4KH 1 715 557 77.9 0 394 156 0 138 387 0 0 382 126
600 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LA 1 887 612 69 0 403 201 1 145 432 0 0 410 160
601 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LB 1 1,068 839 78.56 0 618 214 1 148 656 0 0 627 160
602 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LC 1 802 622 77.56 0 459 160 0 106 489 0 0 468 118
603 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LD 1 1,144 888 77.62 3 622 255 2 177 675 0 0 655 178
604 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LE 1 723 471 65.15 1 333 131 0 111 339 0 0 324 114
605 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LF 1 875 652 74.51 2 456 186 1 156 481 0 0 435 174
606 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LG 1 888 677 76.24 0 492 179 0 136 509 0 0 499 134
607 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LH 1 799 632 79.1 0 475 154 0 122 492 0 0 482 120
608 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LI 1 826 598 72.4 0 410 182 0 145 423 0 0 406 133
609 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LJ 1 703 528 75.11 2 376 143 1 110 399 0 0 377 116
610 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LK 1 908 724 79.74 2 517 197 0 165 525 0 0 508 170
611 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LL 1 1,086 837 77.07 1 570 263 0 179 625 0 0 614 179
612 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LM 1 866 644 74.36 0 472 168 0 124 500 0 0 483 134
613 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LN 1 701 503 71.75 0 346 153 0 108 385 0 0 381 100
614 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LO 1 1,022 769 75.24 3 580 172 3 129 614 0 0 605 132
615 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LP 1 1,097 774 70.56 0 535 233 0 174 574 0 0 567 170
616 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LQ 1 907 754 83.13 1 561 183 3 140 574 0 0 555 140
617 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LR 1 715 551 77.06 0 404 141 0 104 427 0 0 420 98
618 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LS 1 1,187 769 64.79 5 512 244 2 192 539 0 0 505 199
619 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LT 1 1,081 833 77.06 4 637 180 5 131 664 0 0 636 132
620 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LU 1 733 585 79.81 1 418 164 0 118 449 0 0 424 133
621 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LV 1 962 753 78.27 1 573 175 1 121 609 0 0 605 118
622 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LW 1 1,124 844 75.09 1 635 199 2 141 663 0 0 647 142
623 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LX 1 993 776 78.15 1 566 201 1 135 614 0 0 588 154
624 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LY 1 1,080 806 74.63 1 589 214 0 160 616 0 0 603 165
625 WEST CHESTER TWP 4LZ 1 702 520 74.07 0 391 126 1 78 427 0 0 407 85
626 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LA 1 710 533 75.07 0 404 127 0 98 427 0 0 421 96
627 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LB 1 823 506 61.48 1 338 167 0 106 371 0 0 358 114
628 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LC 1 1,683 1,314 78.07 0 876 418 0 330 931 0 0 878 337
629 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LD 1 838 430 51.31 1 211 211 0 170 248 0 0 224 180
630 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LE 1 776 586 75.52 1 425 157 0 109 460 0 0 444 114
631 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LF 1 574 454 79.09 0 330 118 0 76 354 0 0 350 81
632 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LG 1 759 511 67.33 1 336 167 3 130 357 0 0 355 132
633 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LH 1 677 512 75.63 1 349 154 0 111 376 0 0 356 121
634 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LI 1 912 339 37.17 3 171 164 0 119 202 0 0 179 131
635 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LJ 1 638 403 63.17 2 278 123 0 90 298 0 0 284 101
636 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LK 1 902 722 80.04 0 533 187 0 131 561 0 0 548 132
637 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LL 1 917 646 70.45 4 485 153 0 110 503 0 0 484 118
638 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LM 1 837 643 76.82 0 492 144 1 104 512 0 0 509 105
639 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LN 1 765 574 75.03 2 413 151 0 108 431 0 0 414 111
640 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LO 1 1,067 801 75.07 0 631 162 2 123 659 0 0 661 117
641 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LP 1 946 702 74.21 1 502 194 3 136 541 0 0 529 140
642 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LQ 1 1,204 937 77.82 2 693 236 0 164 734 0 0 724 174
643 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LR 1 1,207 696 57.66 2 378 307 2 223 425 0 0 379 251
644 WEST CHESTER TWP 5LS 1 1,032 656 63.57 0 430 221 0 162 470 0 0 440 172
700 WAYNE TWP 4MA 1 697 587 84.22 2 411 163 1 137 419 0 0 382 154
701 WAYNE TWP 4MB 1 728 610 83.79 1 424 173 3 148 436 0 0 431 134
702 WAYNE TWP 4MC 1 372 274 73.66 2 176 86 0 71 187 0 0 176 72
703 WAYNE TWP 4MD 1 863 703 81.46 0 499 191 3 161 503 0 0 481 167
704 WAYNE TWP 4ME 1 592 456 77.03 2 280 166 0 129 309 0 0 293 128
705 WAYNE TWP 4MF 1 51 31 60.78 0 21 9 0 12 17 0 0 20 10
800 SHARONVILLE CITY 4NA 1 1,261 679 53.85 3 405 268 1 210 437 0 0 403 217
801 SHARONVILLE CITY 4NB 1 679 525 77.32 0 362 160 1 109 407 0 0 380 116
B-)
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-20-05 04:43 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. Got it
Thanks for the info. I should have the preliminary breakdowns for each precinct in the Ohio exit poll later tonight.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-16-05 08:13 PM
Response to Reply #20
127. Minvis, should we encourage Liam to try to get the Butler exit poll names?
Edited on Wed Mar-16-05 08:15 PM by kiwi_expat
Have you had any more response to your e-mail query regarding the Butler exit poll precincts?

KaliTracy has been told that there were no exit poll precincts in Butler county, but we are pretty sure there were two. Should we ask Liam to give it a try?
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-17-05 06:14 PM
Response to Reply #127
128. Yes
Sorry, I've been out sick the past couple days. I contacted the same person that KaliTracy did and she has not gotten back to me via e-mail.
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-20-05 06:02 AM
Response to Reply #18
25. If you need help getting data out of those resulsts files.


... I have some utilities for extracting data from the canvass files. I haven't written a parser for the older style punchcards yet but it should be relatively easy to tweak the one for the newer iVotronic systems to get the results out. (I can already parse Butler's, but
Cuyahoga's system is older than what I have written code for so far.)

http://uscvprogs.sf.net

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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-20-05 06:25 AM
Response to Reply #25
26. Prediction (North Carolina)
Just to stick my neck out, here's a prediction to test my methods for figuring out which precinct is which. If it turns out false, I'll have to improve the code.

I predict In North Carolina, precint 9 in the data file will be one of these two precincts in Catawba county:

7 Conover West FIRST METHODIST CHURCH 410 NORTH 1ST AVE, CONOVER, NC
33 Springs MT. ZION LUTHERAN CHURCH 4420 COUNTY HOME RD, CONOVER, NC

In case anyone wants some trivia, I had my code spit out the criteria used and found that, at least in North Carolina district 10, the reason I was able to narrow this particular precinct down to only 3 choices (and then discard one based on it being too rural) is that a grand total of two (2) Asian Male Registered Democrats between the ages of 41 and 65 took the NEP survey. There were other criteria as well, but that is the one that singlehandedly eliminated the most precincts in that district.

So apparently they are a bit rare to come by, at least regionally.

The next most unique precinct is NEP #69, which has 14 possible matches in the state according to my code, before looking at population.

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-20-05 02:52 AM
Response to Original message
23. Freeman (Simon) OH exit data: 1963 polled, Kerry 52.06% of 2-party vote.
Edited on Sun Feb-20-05 03:17 AM by TruthIsAll
So the raw data is even better for Kerry than was used in the
exit poll analysis. He has an 8.23% (53.48-45.25) margin vs.
4.12% (52.06-47.94). 

This makes it even more improbable for Bush to win the state.
For 52.06%, the probability was 0.28% or 1 out of 352, based
on 1963 polled and an MOE = 2.21%.

For 53.48%, the probability becomes 1 in 6.8 trillion..

Prob =1-NORMDIST(0.5348,0.4525,0.0221/1.96,TRUE)	
= 1.45994E-13	

or 1 in 6,849,581,182,313

OHIO			
At 7:32PM, Kerry was winning the male AND female exit poll 		
There were 1963 polled and he led 52-48%			

At 1:41AM, the numbers reversed.			
There were 2020 polled and Bush led 52-47%			
How could this occur with an increase of only 57 polled?			

7:32PM
1963	Polled	
......Mix   Bush 	Kerry
Women	53%	47%	53%
Men	47%	49%	51%

Total	100%	47.94%	52.06%

1:41AM	
2020	Polled	
......Mix   Bush 	Kerry
Women	53%	50%	50%
Men	47%	52%	47%

Total	100%	50.94%	48.59%





	Poll			Kerry	2 party	Poll	Prob.	Dev/	Beyond
	Odds
St	Size	MOE	Stdev	Vote	Poll	Dev	Dev	MOE	MOE?	
NH	1849	2.27%	1.16%	50.69%	55.50	-4.81%	0.00%	-2.12	Yes	62407
NY	1452	2.47%	1.26%	59.29%	63.97	-4.68%	0.01%	-1.89	Yes	9734
SC	1735	2.34%	1.20%	41.36%	45.79	-4.42%	0.01%	-1.89	Yes	9115
NC	2167	2.10%	1.07%	43.76%	47.31	-3.55%	0.05%	-1.69	Yes	2171
VT	685	3.56%	1.81%	60.30%	65.69	-5.38%	0.15%	-1.51	Yes	669
PA	1930	2.22%	1.13%	51.26%	54.41	-3.15%	0.27%	-1.42	Yes	366

OH	1963	2.21%	1.13%	48.94%	52.06	-3.12%	0.28%	-1.41	Yes	352

MN	2178	2.09%	1.07%	51.76%	54.61	-2.85%	0.38%	-1.36	Yes	266
FL	2846	1.84%	0.94%	47.48%	49.93	-2.45%	0.44%	-1.34	Yes	226
DE	770	3.48%	1.78%	53.83%	58.44	-4.61%	0.47%	-1.32	Yes	211
MA	889	3.10%	1.58%	62.68%	66.46	-3.79%	0.84%	-1.22	Yes	119
AL	730	3.57%	1.82%	37.10%	41.08	-3.98%	1.45%	-1.11	Yes	69

RI	809	3.30%	1.69%	60.58%	64.24	-3.66%	1.49%	-1.11	Yes	67
NJ	1520	2.49%	1.27%	53.40%	56.13	-2.73%	1.61%	-1.09	Yes	62
AK	910	3.18%	1.62%	36.77%	40.14	-3.37%	1.91%	-1.06	Yes	52
UT	798	3.18%	1.62%	26.65%	29.93	-3.28%	2.16%	-1.03	Yes	46
NE	785	3.37%	1.72%	33.15%	36.54	-3.39%	2.43%	-1.01	Yes	41

CT	872	3.27%	1.67%	55.28%	58.47	-3.20%	2.76%	-0.98		36
NV	2116	2.13%	1.09%	48.68%	50.66	-1.98%	3.44%	-0.93		29
AR	1402	2.61%	1.33%	44.72%	46.93	-2.21%	4.89%	-0.84		20
VA	1431	2.59%	1.32%	45.87%	47.96	-2.09%	5.65%	-0.81		18
MS	798	3.44%	1.75%	40.44%	43.20	-2.76%	5.77%	-0.80		17

NM	1951	2.22%	1.13%	49.60%	51.34	-1.74%	6.17%	-0.79		16
LA	1669	2.38%	1.22%	42.67%	44.50	-1.83%	6.67%	-0.77		15
IL	1392	2.60%	1.33%	55.22%	57.13	-1.92%	7.44%	-0.74		13
CO	2515	1.95%	1.00%	47.63%	49.07	-1.44%	7.45%	-0.74		13
AZ	1859	2.27%	1.16%	45.00%	46.60	-1.60%	8.39%	-0.70		12

ID	559	3.91%	1.99%	30.68%	33.33	-2.66%	9.14%	-0.68		11
WA	2123	2.12%	1.08%	53.65%	55.07	-1.42%	9.43%	-0.67		11
GA	1536	2.48%	1.26%	41.65%	43.11	-1.46%	12.33%	-0.59		8
DC	795	1.92%	0.98%	90.52%	91.63	-1.11%	12.86%	-0.58		8
MO	2158	2.11%	1.07%	46.38%	47.48	-1.09%	15.42%	-0.52		6

IA	2502	1.96%	1.00%	49.66%	50.67	-1.01%	15.62%	-0.52		6
IN	926	3.17%	1.62%	39.58%	40.97	-1.39%	19.43%	-0.44		5
MI	2452	1.98%	1.01%	51.73%	52.55	-0.83%	20.66%	-0.42		5
CA	1919	2.22%	1.13%	55.04%	55.73	-0.69%	27.12%	-0.31		4
KY	1034	3.00%	1.53%	39.99%	40.76	-0.76%	30.89%	-0.25		3

MD	1000	3.07%	1.57%	56.57%	57.04	-0.47%	38.14%	-0.15		3
OK	1539	2.38%	1.21%	34.43%	34.73	-0.30%	40.32%	-0.13		2
ME	1968	2.20%	1.12%	54.58%	54.83	-0.25%	41.15%	-0.11		2
WI	2223	2.08%	1.06%	50.19%	50.21	-0.02%	49.17%	-0.01		2
MT	640	3.78%	1.93%	39.50%	39.28	0.22%	45.51%	0.06		2

HI	499	4.38%	2.23%	54.40%	53.32	1.08%	31.38%	0.25		3
OR	1064	3.00%	1.53%	52.11%	51.22	0.89%	28.17%	0.29		4
SD	1495	2.45%	1.25%	39.09%	37.42	1.67%	9.11%	0.68		11
WY	684	3.50%	1.78%	29.69%	32.07	2.38%	9.07%	0.68		11
ND	649	3.63%	1.85%	36.09%	33.58	2.51%	8.76%	0.69		11

KS	654	3.65%	1.86%	37.13%	34.60	2.53%	8.68%	0.69		12
WV	1722	2.35%	1.20%	43.52%	45.19	1.67%	8.14%	0.71		12
TX	1671	2.31%	1.18%	38.49%	36.84	1.65%	8.08%	0.71		12
TN	1774	2.29%	1.17%	42.81%	41.15	1.66%	7.75%	0.73		13
										
	73607	2.71%	1.38%	47.09%	48.84	-1.59%	10.27%	-0.62		

			
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-23-05 05:22 AM
Response to Reply #23
136. Then how did
It end up in Ohio when those numbers were totally backwards? These polls don't fit.
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-20-05 07:19 PM
Response to Original message
30. What is conclusion about this data and its usefulness??
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-21-05 01:03 AM
Response to Reply #30
31. Conclusion?
First, the usefulness of the data is getting a more accurate count of what the exit poll numbers were in Ohio. Instead of getting some numbers released via the media, these are numbers pulled directly from the raw data. As TIA's post noted, the original exit poll numbers indicated Kerry with 51+% in Ohio when, in fact, it was 53+% making it again even more impossible that the exit poll numbers and "actual" votes could differ by that much.

Secondly, I thought it would be useful to look at areas like party ID to see if the exit polls under represented Republicans, as Mitofsky seemed to intimate. I wanted to put out the information of what the breakdown of party ID was in the Ohio exit poll and ask people if they knew if too many Democrats were polled.

I also am hopeful that I can track down what some of the actual precincts that were used in the exit poll and compare the "actual" count to the exit poll data from those precincts. I was hoping people here might be able to help.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 07:50 PM
Response to Reply #31
43. Here is a post I put on the "2000 National Exit Poll..." thread:
"Here's an idea for all you folks, if you want to take a moment out....
from your bracing exchanges on the general merits of exit poll data.

The folks at "Ohio Exit Poll Raw Data" are undertaking the Herculean tasks of trying to identify individual precincts in Ohio exit poll data (from Univ. of Mich.) and trying to ferret out Ohio precinct election totals from various online sources.

My question to you all - which you are welcome to address here or on the Ohio exit poll site itself - is IS THERE ANY WAY THAT COMPARING INDIVIDUAL PRECINCT EXIT POLL DATA WITH CORRESPONDING PRECINCT "ACTUAL" TOTALS COULD HELP IDENTIFY PRECINCTS WHERE FRAUDULENT COUNTS/TABULATIONS WERE LIKELY TO HAVE OCCURRED?"



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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-26-05 03:58 PM
Response to Reply #43
45. Let's Discuss
One of the main reasons I started this post was to specifically look at the exit poll precincts and see if they matched with the "actual" vote counts for those precincts. My thinking was that if they did match then the exit polls were probably right and that Kerry did win Ohio. If they didn't match, then either the exit poll had faulty sampling or there was probably fraud and if it looked like fraud, we could pinpoint it to a specific area(s).

So, yes, I do think this could potentially be useful in pinpointing fraud.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-26-05 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #45
46. I don't know if precinct exit totals are weighted properly or not.
From the exit poll discussions, I gather that the interviewers might be given certain demographic quotas (like 5 white men aged 21-30), as they are in market research surveys. Do you know if that's true?

If there are quotas, I wonder if the quotas are intended to reflect the demographics of that particular precinct or merely useful for aggregate analysis.

I understand that Mitofsky has said something like "the exit polls are pre-weighted by design", but I'm not sure what he means by that.

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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-26-05 10:14 PM
Response to Reply #46
47. Here's what NEP (Mitofsky) says
Sampling
The samples were selected in two stages. First, a probability sample of voting precincts within each state was selected that represents the different geographic areas across the state and the partisan make-up of the state. Precincts were selected with a probability proportionate to the number of voters in each precinct. There are two exceptions. In some states, precincts that have large minority populations were sampled at a higher rate than other precincts. In New Hampshire a few very large precincts were sampled with certainty. The sample weighting (described below) adjusts the representation of these precincts to their correct share of the total vote. Within each precinct, voters were sampled systematically throughout the voting day at a rate that gives all voters in a precinct the same chance of being interviewed.

Weighting
The exit poll results are weighted to reflect the complexity of the sampling design. That is, the weighting takes into account the different probabilities of selecting a precinct and of selecting a voter within each precinct. For example, minority precincts that were selected at a higher rate receive a smaller weight than other precincts of the same size. There is also an adjustment for voters who were missed or refused to be interviewed, which is based on their observed age, race and gender.



Your guess is as good as mine. It does almost sound like the people are picked for aggregate analysis instead of by the particular demographics of the precinct. Any thoughts?
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 12:10 AM
Response to Reply #47
48. That methodology looks like it could give us good precinct data.
Thanks very much for that description. I had been unable to find that. (Using your quotes, I was able to find the 2002 VNS methodology described at www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/usvns2002_2.html - it is exactly the same wording.)

It appears my inference, that interviewing quotas were used, was wrong. Thank goodness.

It looks as though the "raw" precinct data is exactly what we want - as long as we can determine if it has already been adjusted for "voters who were missed or refused to be interviewed... based on their observed age, race and sex". If the data has not already been adjusted for missed/refusals, I hope that those counts ("based on their observed age, race and sex") are available along with the raw data. Can you identify the missed/refusals counts in the data?

This is so exciting. Good on you, minvis, for starting this project!


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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 12:31 AM
Response to Reply #48
49. No counts
I don't believe there are any raw counts of refusals/missed interviews, however, there is the weighting numbers for each person. I mentioned earlier in this thread that the largest weighting in the data is for those 65 and older and someone responded that they believed that that was a built-in weighting due to the reduced liklihood of someone older going through the whole exit poll interview process.

The only other interesting thing they put in the data was a variable called Backside. This noted whether the person filled out both the front and backside of the exit poll. It was noted with 1 if they did both and 2 if they did not.

I hope that's helpful.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 07:05 PM
Response to Reply #49
52. Skids, in 3, says that missed/refusals are already included in the weights
(Sorry I didn't read all of the messages, before.)

Data from precincts with low weights should be very reliable, indeed. I do hope that comparisons with tabulation results for those precincts can point to a few precincts where (full manual) recounts would be most likely to prove fraud.

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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:20 PM
Response to Reply #52
53. Provisional and "spoiled" ballots could distort the analysis.
(addendum to msg. 52 - too late to "edit"):

When comparing a precinct's exit poll data with the precinct's totals from the central tabulator for purposes of identifying possible fraud, it will be necessary to take into account the number of provisional and "spoiled" ballots for the precinct.

If the objective is (as I think it should be)selecting a few precincts for total manual recounts, it would certainly make sense to include a couple of precincts with a high number of "spoiled" ballots - assuming that the "spoiled" ballots would be included in the precinct recount.

But the project at hand, comparing exit polls with final totals for the purpose of identifying counting/tabulator fraud, should probably focus on the precincts having low numbers of provisional and "spoiled" ballots.

There is no way of subtracting out the "spoiled" ballots from the exit poll totals. And I assume that there are no sub-totals for respondents that used provisional ballots. Or are there?
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-28-05 01:49 PM
Response to Reply #53
55. Provisional Ballots
No, there is not any data on provisional ballots from the exit poll, however, I believe there is data on whether the voter was an absentee voter or election day voter.
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 12:36 AM
Response to Reply #45
50. Example of how the Ohio Exit Poll can point to unexpected results
Minvis,  While we are trying to match exit poll precincts in
order to gain clues about where the tabulated results differed
from the exit poll, I thought I'd give an example of how this
will unfold using just the Ohio exit poll.  The table below
shows both raw survey responses and weighted responses from
the exit poll by congressional district. The exit poll shows
that bush lost the raw, unweighted survey by 168 votes out of
2042, or, 8.2 percent.  After weighting, Bush won the
reweighed sample by 41 votes, identical to his reported
victory total of 2 percent.  The weighting gave Bush a gain of
209 votes over the interview responses.  An examination of the
rest of the Ohio exit poll shows that Mitovsky's stated
methodology of weighting for age, gender and race didn't
amount to much in Ohio.  Really, the only thing that made a
difference was that the sample was reweighted to reflect the
vote total in some geographic areas, undetermined at this
point.  But this matching with vote totals did not occur
uniformly across the state even though Bush gained in each CD.
 It varied from a low of 2.46 in Cuyahoga to a high of 27
votes in CD8, the southwestern counties north of Cincinnati. 
Some of the exit poll totals were re-weighted to give Bush 15+
percentage points in a single CD.  Since the same exit poll
data exists by precinct, comparing the raw exit poll
(controlling for age, sex, gender) with the weighted results
and vote tabulation will show the precincts that differed from
what Mitovshy expected when he built his precinct sample.  We
then go to these relatively few precincts (perhaps in a
recount), examine the voter logs (that will give us clues like
big differences in gender), examine the ballots and compare
them with totals.  Rather than look everywhere for fraud, we
have targeted our search.
B-) 

 CD 	 Sample  Weight  Bush 	 Bush 	 Bush 
		  	 Gain    Margin  Margin
				 Wgt'd 	 Raw 
1	 133.00  126.36  16.47 	 6.47 	 (10.00)
2	 291.00  336.33  24.90 	 64.90 	 40.00 
4	 29.00 	 43.52 	 4.82 	 9.82 	 5.00 
5	 141.00  132.54  5.29 	 (3.71)	 (9.00)
6	 53.00 	 43.62 	 4.27 	 3.27 	 (1.00)
7	 51.00 	 39.99 	 7.13 	 (10.87) (18.00)
8	 147.00  128.74  27.63 	 (6.37)	 (34.00)
9	 161.00  118.85  26.16 	 (18.84) (45.00)
10	 120.00  122.96  13.55 	 6.55 	 (7.00)
11	 83.00 	 82.04 	 2.46 	 (67.55) (70.00)
12	 75.00 	 81.99 	 6.78 	 29.78 	 23.00 
13	 154.00  166.81  17.78 	 (5.22)	 (23.00)
14	 125.00  122.96  9.28 	 (19.72) (29.00)
15	 140.00  162.28  13.70 	 20.70 	 7.00 
16	 94.00 	 123.99  15.94 	 25.94 	 10.00 
17	 83.00 	 81.96 	 5.96 	 (21.04) (27.00)
18	 162.00  125.99  6.91 	 26.91 	 20.00 
 Total 	 2,042.	 2,040.91 209.02 41.02 	 (168.00)
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 12:59 AM
Response to Reply #50
51. Thanks so much
Edited on Sun Feb-27-05 01:01 AM by minvis
I really appreciate all the digging you've been doing. It looks like from your table, we should be looking at CD's 1, 2, 8, 9, 13 and 16. CD's 1, 2 and 8 are Cincinnati and its Northern and Eastern Suburbs and a small portion of Dayton's suburbs. The 9th is Toledo and industrial towns east along Lake Erie and finally the 13th and 16th are Akron, Canton, and the western and southern suburbs of Cleveland.

It seems like the two of us have the election data from CDs 1, 2 and 8 already. I'm wondering if anyone else has info from the 9th, 13th and 16th.

By the way, here's a link to the Congressional Districts if anyone is interested.

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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-21-05 10:09 PM
Response to Original message
32. Exit poll precincts and all results for CD1 in Ohio: Solve the riddle!
Minvis and Skids have hypothesized that we could identify the
precincts used in the exit sample if we could match them to
results and voter registration by party/demographics.  Below
is the results of the Exit poll for Ohio's CD1 and statewide
and a table of reported results for 11/2004 for all precincts
in Butler and Hamilton counties from which CD1 is drawn.  I
have requested party and demographics by precinct from BOE but
until hell freezes over this is good enough to start with. 
Let's apply some algorithms (Skids, how about sharing your N.
Car match rules.) and see if we can ID the three exit poll
precincts in CD1.    There are three precincts in the Exit
poll and 967 precincts in CD1.  The cross matching of totals
will ease the comparison.  For instance, how many precincts
gave Kerry around 85 percent and Voinovich 17 percent?  I'll
start on this tomorrow.  You should be able to cut and paste
each data set into excel and use Tools/Text-to-columns to get
the data into cells.  If that's too daunting, e-mail me and
I'll send you a spreadsheet.  Gentlepeople start your engines!

	 Ohio Exit Poll Totals for CD1 Precincts and Statewide 
 	 Congressional District/Precinct (CCPPP) 
Category	01051	01054	01057	 Grand Total 
 Sample 	53.00	52.00	28.00	2042.00
 Weight 	36.69	46.72	42.95	2040.91
 WgtKerry 	31.29	10.79	17.48	984.10
 WgtBush 	4.62	35.93	25.48	1025.12
 WgtOthr 	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.38
 WgtNoVote 	0.79	0.00	0.00	23.31
 RawKerry 	46.00	13.00	12.00	1092.00
 RawBush 	6.00	39.00	16.00	924.00
 RawOther 	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00
 RawNovote 	1.00	0.00	0.00	22.00
 VOINRAW 	8.00	41.00	23.00	1116.00
 YES_ISS1 	18.00	33.00	15.00	1118.00
 RaceWhite 	24.00	44.00	28.00	1713.00
 RaceBlack 	24.00	4.00	0.00	221.00
 RaceHisp 	0.00	0.00	0.00	36.00
 RaceOther 	1.00	3.00	0.00	20.00
 WgtRaceWhite 	16.16	39.65	42.95	1735.23
 WgtRaceBlack 	17.18	3.77	0.00	207.07
 WgtRaceHisp 	0.00	0.00	0.00	31.80
 WgtRaceOther 	0.62	2.47	0.00	17.45
 DemRaw 	30.00	8.00	9.00	761.00
 RepRaw 	2.00	31.00	14.00	678.00
 IndRaw 	21.00	11.00	4.00	482.00
 OthRaw 	0.00	2.00	1.00	121.00
 WgtDem 	21.00	7.76	13.93	681.00
 WgtRep 	1.61	28.98	21.54	759.59
 WgtInd 	14.09	8.45	6.13	474.66
 WgtOth 	0.00	1.54	1.35	125.67
 WgtVoin 	6.32	37.81	36.17	1226.47
 WgtYesIss1 	13.82	29.87	24.45	1211.41
 WgtKerryPct 	85.26	23.10	40.69	48.22
 WgtBushPct 	12.59	76.90	59.31	50.23
 WgtDemPct 	57.22	16.60	32.43	33.37
 WgtRepPct 	4.38	62.04	50.16	37.22
 WgtIndPct 	38.40	18.08	14.27	23.26
 WgtVoinPct 	17.22	80.93	84.20	60.09
 WgtYes1Pct 	37.65	63.93	56.93	59.36
 WgtWhtPct 	44.03	84.86	100.00	85.02
 WgtBlkPct 	46.81	8.07	0.00	10.15
 WgtHisPct 	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.56
 WgtOthPct 	1.69	5.29	0.00	0.85

County	Precinct Code	Precinct No	Precinct Name	Cong Dist	Reg
Vote	Ballots	Pct	PresBadnarik	PresBush	PresKerry	PresPeroutka	PresOthr	SenFingerhut	SenVoinovich	SenOthr	CD1Chabot	CD1Harris	CD1Othr	CD2Portman	CD2Sanders	CD2Othr	CD8Boehner	CD8Hardenbrook	CD8Othr	PresUndVt	SenUndVt	CD1UndVt	CD2UndVt	CD8UndVt	PresUndVtPct	SenUndVtPct	CD1UndVtPct	CD2UndVtPct	CD8UndVtPct	KerryPct	BushPct	VoinPct
Hamilton	ACZ	301	CINCINNATI
3-A	1	674	489	0.7255	2	23	452	1	0	330	69	0	61	340	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	90	88	#N/A	#N/A	2.249488753	18.40490798	17.99591002	#N/A	#N/A	94.56066946	4.811715481	14.11042945
Hamilton	ADA	302	CINCINNATI
3-B	1	620	457	0.7371	2	83	359	0	0	271	144	0	117	290	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	42	50	#N/A	#N/A	2.84463895	9.190371991	10.94091904	#N/A	#N/A	80.85585586	18.69369369	31.50984683
Hamilton	ADB	303	CINCINNATI
3-C	1/2	580	451	0.7776	0	71	368	0	0	269	121	0	92	248	0	27	23	0	0	0	0	12	61	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	2.66075388	13.52549889	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	83.82687927	16.17312073	26.82926829
Hamilton	ADC	304	CINCINNATI
3-D	1	643	448	0.6967	1	25	385	0	0	354	52	0	50	356	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	37	42	42	#N/A	#N/A	8.258928571	9.375	9.375	#N/A	#N/A	93.67396594	6.082725061	11.60714286
Hamilton	ADD	305	CINCINNATI
3-E	1	667	475	0.7121	0	17	440	1	0	344	66	0	67	338	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17	65	70	#N/A	#N/A	3.578947368	13.68421053	14.73684211	#N/A	#N/A	96.069869	3.711790393	13.89473684
Hamilton	ADE	306	CINCINNATI
3-F	1	603	431	0.7148	0	108	311	0	0	246	154	0	143	255	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	31	33	#N/A	#N/A	2.784222738	7.192575406	7.656612529	#N/A	#N/A	74.22434368	25.77565632	35.73085847
Hamilton	ADF	307	CINCINNATI
3-G	1	615	445	0.7236	0	17	411	0	0	317	69	0	53	311	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17	59	81	#N/A	#N/A	3.820224719	13.25842697	18.20224719	#N/A	#N/A	96.02803738	3.971962617	15.50561798
Hamilton	ADG	308	CINCINNATI
3-H	1	559	444	0.7943	1	143	285	0	0	222	191	0	173	242	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	31	29	#N/A	#N/A	3.378378378	6.981981982	6.531531532	#N/A	#N/A	66.43356643	33.33333333	43.01801802
Hamilton	ADH	309	CINCINNATI
3-I	1	540	423	0.7833	0	22	370	0	0	325	64	0	57	320	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	31	34	46	#N/A	#N/A	7.328605201	8.037825059	10.87470449	#N/A	#N/A	94.3877551	5.612244898	15.13002364
Hamilton	ADI	310	CINCINNATI
3-J	1	621	497	0.8003	0	13	472	0	0	377	71	0	59	389	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	49	49	#N/A	#N/A	2.414486922	9.85915493	9.85915493	#N/A	#N/A	97.31958763	2.680412371	14.28571429
Hamilton	ADJ	311	CINCINNATI
3-K	1	589	385	0.6537	0	23	351	0	0	260	59	0	47	257	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	66	81	#N/A	#N/A	2.857142857	17.14285714	21.03896104	#N/A	#N/A	93.85026738	6.14973262	15.32467532
Hamilton	AFA	601	CINCINNATI
6-A	1	640	376	0.5875	5	104	262	1	0	213	143	0	116	230	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	20	30	#N/A	#N/A	1.063829787	5.319148936	7.978723404	#N/A	#N/A	70.43010753	27.95698925	38.03191489
Hamilton	AFC	603	CINCINNATI
6-C	1	643	366	0.5692	0	33	320	0	0	245	88	0	70	265	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	33	31	#N/A	#N/A	3.551912568	9.016393443	8.469945355	#N/A	#N/A	90.65155807	9.348441926	24.04371585
Hamilton	AFD	604	CINCINNATI
6-D	1	675	411	0.6089	1	35	360	0	0	258	81	0	70	270	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	72	71	#N/A	#N/A	3.649635036	17.51824818	17.27493917	#N/A	#N/A	90.90909091	8.838383838	19.7080292
Hamilton	AFE	605	CINCINNATI
6-E	1/2	827	465	0.5623	5	146	305	0	0	237	201	0	77	111	0	96	147	0	0	0	0	9	27	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	1.935483871	5.806451613	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	66.88596491	32.01754386	43.22580645
Hamilton	BPV	606	CINCINNATI
6-F	1	832	446	0.5361	1	85	346	1	0	274	116	0	103	282	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	56	61	#N/A	#N/A	2.914798206	12.55605381	13.67713004	#N/A	#N/A	79.90762125	19.63048499	26.00896861
Hamilton	AFF	701	CINCINNATI
7-A	1	713	540	0.7574	0	36	476	0	0	409	84	0	73	418	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	28	47	49	#N/A	#N/A	5.185185185	8.703703704	9.074074074	#N/A	#N/A	92.96875	7.03125	15.55555556
Hamilton	AFG	702	CINCINNATI
7-B	1	659	514	0.78	0	44	438	0	0	364	93	0	74	366	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	32	57	74	#N/A	#N/A	6.225680934	11.08949416	14.39688716	#N/A	#N/A	90.87136929	9.128630705	18.09338521
Hamilton	AFH	703	CINCINNATI
7-C	1	265	124	0.4679	0	3	118	0	0	91	19	0	21	85	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	14	18	#N/A	#N/A	2.419354839	11.29032258	14.51612903	#N/A	#N/A	97.52066116	2.479338843	15.32258065
Hamilton	AFI	704	CINCINNATI
7-D	1	661	520	0.7867	0	48	451	1	0	364	98	0	79	369	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20	58	72	#N/A	#N/A	3.846153846	11.15384615	13.84615385	#N/A	#N/A	90.2	9.6	18.84615385
Hamilton	AFJ	705	CINCINNATI
7-E	1	649	496	0.7643	0	19	464	0	0	360	69	0	70	370	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	67	56	#N/A	#N/A	2.620967742	13.50806452	11.29032258	#N/A	#N/A	96.06625259	3.933747412	13.91129032
Hamilton	AFK	706	CINCINNATI
7-F	1	544	444	0.8162	0	25	378	0	0	316	69	0	73	312	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	41	59	59	#N/A	#N/A	9.234234234	13.28828829	13.28828829	#N/A	#N/A	93.79652605	6.203473945	15.54054054
Hamilton	AFL	707	CINCINNATI
7-G	1	599	459	0.7663	0	48	394	3	0	303	101	0	94	301	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	55	64	#N/A	#N/A	3.050108932	11.98257081	13.94335512	#N/A	#N/A	88.53932584	10.78651685	22.0043573
Hamilton	AFM	708	CINCINNATI
7-H	1	621	451	0.7262	0	24	415	1	0	306	80	0	58	327	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	65	66	#N/A	#N/A	2.43902439	14.41241685	14.63414634	#N/A	#N/A	94.31818182	5.454545455	17.7383592
Hamilton	AFN	709	CINCINNATI
7-I	1	662	515	0.7779	0	49	447	0	0	343	93	0	94	341	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19	79	80	#N/A	#N/A	3.689320388	15.33980583	15.53398058	#N/A	#N/A	90.12096774	9.879032258	18.05825243
Hamilton	AFO	710	CINCINNATI
7-J	1	586	490	0.8362	1	45	433	1	0	349	108	0	91	361	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	33	38	#N/A	#N/A	2.040816327	6.734693878	7.755102041	#N/A	#N/A	90.20833333	9.375	22.04081633
Hamilton	AFP	711	CINCINNATI
7-K	1	603	463	0.7678	1	35	393	1	0	326	103	0	92	339	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	33	34	32	#N/A	#N/A	7.127429806	7.343412527	6.911447084	#N/A	#N/A	91.39534884	8.139534884	22.2462203
Hamilton	AFQ	712	CINCINNATI
7-L	1	195	66	0.3385	1	2	60	1	0	45	15	0	7	50	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6	9	#N/A	#N/A	3.03030303	9.090909091	13.63636364	#N/A	#N/A	93.75	3.125	22.72727273
Hamilton	AFR	713	CINCINNATI
7-M	1	610	454	0.7443	1	20	414	1	0	319	54	0	57	323	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18	81	74	#N/A	#N/A	3.964757709	17.84140969	16.29955947	#N/A	#N/A	94.95412844	4.587155963	11.89427313
Hamilton	AFS	714	CINCINNATI
7-N	1	576	428	0.7431	1	24	388	0	0	325	55	0	49	312	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	48	67	#N/A	#N/A	3.504672897	11.21495327	15.65420561	#N/A	#N/A	93.94673123	5.811138015	12.85046729
Hamilton	AFT	715	CINCINNATI
7-O	1	687	501	0.7293	4	40	442	0	0	356	79	0	72	363	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	66	66	#N/A	#N/A	2.994011976	13.17365269	13.17365269	#N/A	#N/A	90.94650206	8.230452675	15.76846307
Hamilton	AFU	716	CINCINNATI
7-P	1	379	297	0.7836	0	14	260	0	0	217	48	0	40	222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	23	32	35	#N/A	#N/A	7.744107744	10.77441077	11.78451178	#N/A	#N/A	94.89051095	5.109489051	16.16161616
Hamilton	AFV	717	CINCINNATI
7-Q	1	701	553	0.7917	0	54	484	0	0	385	106	0	98	394	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	62	61	#N/A	#N/A	2.712477396	11.21157324	11.03074141	#N/A	#N/A	89.96282528	10.03717472	19.1681736
Hamilton	AFW	718	CINCINNATI
7-R	1	628	459	0.7309	2	34	411	3	0	333	82	0	62	348	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	44	49	#N/A	#N/A	1.960784314	9.586056645	10.67538126	#N/A	#N/A	91.33333333	7.555555556	17.86492375
Hamilton	AFX	719	CINCINNATI
7-S	1	623	498	0.7994	2	76	407	1	0	317	126	0	121	305	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	55	72	#N/A	#N/A	2.409638554	11.04417671	14.45783133	#N/A	#N/A	83.74485597	15.63786008	25.30120482
Hamilton	AGD	801	CINCINNATI
8-A	1	563	343	0.6092	0	15	317	0	0	254	56	0	56	243	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	33	44	#N/A	#N/A	3.206997085	9.620991254	12.82798834	#N/A	#N/A	95.48192771	4.518072289	16.32653061
Hamilton	AGE	802	CINCINNATI
8-B	1	590	404	0.6847	0	19	344	0	0	288	77	0	56	301	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	41	39	47	#N/A	#N/A	10.14851485	9.653465347	11.63366337	#N/A	#N/A	94.76584022	5.23415978	19.05940594
Hamilton	AGG	804	CINCINNATI
8-D	1	732	518	0.7077	0	27	471	1	0	372	80	0	83	347	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19	66	88	#N/A	#N/A	3.667953668	12.74131274	16.98841699	#N/A	#N/A	94.38877756	5.410821643	15.44401544
Hamilton	AGI	806	CINCINNATI
8-F	1	609	378	0.6207	1	20	340	1	0	247	68	0	68	253	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16	63	57	#N/A	#N/A	4.232804233	16.66666667	15.07936508	#N/A	#N/A	93.92265193	5.524861878	17.98941799
Hamilton	AGL	809	CINCINNATI
8-I	1	647	396	0.6121	0	51	332	0	0	255	105	0	87	267	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	36	42	#N/A	#N/A	3.282828283	9.090909091	10.60606061	#N/A	#N/A	86.68407311	13.31592689	26.51515152
Hamilton	AGN	901	CINCINNATI
9-A	1	565	285	0.5044	1	9	263	1	0	207	51	0	48	210	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	27	27	#N/A	#N/A	3.859649123	9.473684211	9.473684211	#N/A	#N/A	95.98540146	3.284671533	17.89473684
Hamilton	AGP	903	CINCINNATI
9-C	1	663	466	0.7029	0	18	402	0	0	326	70	0	66	328	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	46	70	72	#N/A	#N/A	9.871244635	15.02145923	15.45064378	#N/A	#N/A	95.71428571	4.285714286	15.02145923
Hamilton	AGQ	904	CINCINNATI
9-D	1	671	393	0.5857	1	37	338	2	0	283	69	0	69	270	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	41	54	#N/A	#N/A	3.816793893	10.43256997	13.74045802	#N/A	#N/A	89.41798942	9.788359788	17.55725191
Hamilton	AGR	905	CINCINNATI
9-E	1	588	386	0.6565	0	30	333	1	0	245	84	0	62	243	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22	57	81	#N/A	#N/A	5.699481865	14.76683938	20.98445596	#N/A	#N/A	91.48351648	8.241758242	21.76165803
Hamilton	AGS	906	CINCINNATI
9-F	1	775	504	0.591	0	19	457	0	1	301	75	0	74	301	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	28	128	129	#N/A	#N/A	5.555555556	25.3968254	25.5952381	#N/A	#N/A	95.80712788	3.983228512	14.88095238
Hamilton	AGT	907	CINCINNATI
9-G	1	484	342	0.7066	2	9	318	1	0	235	48	0	41	237	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	59	64	#N/A	#N/A	3.50877193	17.25146199	18.71345029	#N/A	#N/A	96.36363636	2.727272727	14.03508772
Hamilton	AGU	908	CINCINNATI
9-H	1	635	352	62.68	0	21	298	1	0	271	68	0	59	279	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	32	13	14	#N/A	#N/A	9.090909091	3.693181818	3.977272727	#N/A	#N/A	93.125	6.5625	19.31818182
Hamilton	AGY	1001	CINCINNATI
10-A	1	484	320	0.6612	0	151	158	0	0	124	170	0	162	118	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	26	40	#N/A	#N/A	3.4375	8.125	12.5	#N/A	#N/A	51.13268608	48.86731392	53.125
Hamilton	AGZ	1002	CINCINNATI
10-B	1	667	424	0.6357	0	86	333	0	0	270	123	0	105	275	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	31	44	#N/A	#N/A	1.179245283	7.311320755	10.37735849	#N/A	#N/A	79.47494033	20.52505967	29.00943396
Hamilton	AHA	1003	CINCINNATI
10-C	1	353	244	0.6912	0	29	188	1	0	150	66	0	56	152	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	26	28	36	#N/A	#N/A	10.6557377	11.47540984	14.75409836	#N/A	#N/A	86.23853211	13.30275229	27.04918033
Hamilton	AHB	1004	CINCINNATI
10-D	1	697	343	0.4921	1	25	297	0	0	223	72	0	60	212	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20	48	71	#N/A	#N/A	5.83090379	13.9941691	20.69970845	#N/A	#N/A	91.9504644	7.73993808	20.99125364
Hamilton	AHC	1005	CINCINNATI
10-E	1	570	260	0.4561	0	23	221	1	0	166	60	0	53	161	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	34	46	#N/A	#N/A	5.769230769	13.07692308	17.69230769	#N/A	#N/A	90.20408163	9.387755102	23.07692308
Hamilton	AHD	1006	CINCINNATI
10-F	1	706	244	0.3456	0	9	229	1	0	147	48	0	30	155	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	49	59	#N/A	#N/A	2.049180328	20.08196721	24.18032787	#N/A	#N/A	95.81589958	3.765690377	19.67213115
Hamilton	BPW	1007	CINCINNATI
10-G	1	390	265	0.6795	4	46	208	1	0	163	76	0	65	174	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	26	26	#N/A	#N/A	2.264150943	9.811320755	9.811320755	#N/A	#N/A	80.30888031	17.76061776	28.67924528
Hamilton	AHE	1101	CINCINNATI
11-A	1	641	432	0.6739	5	115	298	1	0	242	152	0	134	254	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	38	44	#N/A	#N/A	3.009259259	8.796296296	10.18518519	#N/A	#N/A	71.12171838	27.44630072	35.18518519
Hamilton	AHF	1102	CINCINNATI
11-B	1	570	360	0.6316	0	42	309	0	0	244	87	0	71	247	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	29	42	#N/A	#N/A	2.5	8.055555556	11.66666667	#N/A	#N/A	88.03418803	11.96581197	24.16666667
Hamilton	AHG	1103	CINCINNATI
11-C	1	580	356	0.6138	1	64	282	1	0	211	92	0	98	210	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	53	48	#N/A	#N/A	2.247191011	14.88764045	13.48314607	#N/A	#N/A	81.03448276	18.3908046	25.84269663
Hamilton	AHH	1104	CINCINNATI
11-D	1	713	382	0.5358	1	47	328	0	1	259	94	0	89	256	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	29	37	#N/A	#N/A	1.570680628	7.591623037	9.685863874	#N/A	#N/A	87.00265252	12.4668435	24.60732984
Hamilton	AHI	1105	CINCINNATI
11-E	1	679	408	0.6009	4	104	294	0	1	236	143	0	126	237	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	29	45	#N/A	#N/A	1.470588235	7.107843137	11.02941176	#N/A	#N/A	72.9528536	25.80645161	35.04901961
Hamilton	AHJ	1106	CINCINNATI
11-F	1	402	234	0.5821	1	46	171	3	0	136	83	0	73	141	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	15	20	#N/A	#N/A	5.555555556	6.41025641	8.547008547	#N/A	#N/A	77.37556561	20.81447964	35.47008547
Hamilton	AHK	1107	CINCINNATI
11-G	1	666	396	0.5946	1	104	280	1	0	211	152	0	125	223	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	33	48	#N/A	#N/A	2.525252525	8.333333333	12.12121212	#N/A	#N/A	72.5388601	26.94300518	38.38383838
Hamilton	AHL	1108	CINCINNATI
11-H	1	599	387	0.6461	0	81	301	0	0	234	123	0	107	249	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	30	31	#N/A	#N/A	1.291989664	7.751937984	8.010335917	#N/A	#N/A	78.79581152	21.20418848	31.78294574
Hamilton	AHM	1109	CINCINNATI
11-I	1	641	371	0.5788	2	86	274	1	0	217	126	0	111	229	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	28	31	#N/A	#N/A	2.156334232	7.547169811	8.355795148	#N/A	#N/A	75.48209366	23.69146006	33.96226415
Hamilton	AHO	1201	CINCINNATI
12-A	1	459	270	0.5882	3	86	176	0	0	145	98	0	93	149	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	27	28	#N/A	#N/A	1.851851852	10	10.37037037	#N/A	#N/A	66.41509434	32.45283019	36.2962963
Hamilton	AHP	1202	CINCINNATI
12-B	1	537	337	0.6276	1	84	239	0	2	185	132	0	115	199	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	20	23	#N/A	#N/A	3.857566766	5.934718101	6.824925816	#N/A	#N/A	73.31288344	25.76687117	39.16913947
Hamilton	AHQ	1203	CINCINNATI
12-C	1	593	359	0.6054	2	42	300	2	0	249	82	0	75	247	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	28	37	#N/A	#N/A	3.621169916	7.799442897	10.30640669	#N/A	#N/A	86.70520231	12.13872832	22.84122563
Hamilton	AHR	1204	CINCINNATI
12-D	1	325	188	0.5785	0	25	160	0	2	128	44	0	36	125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	27	#N/A	#N/A	1.595744681	8.510638298	14.36170213	#N/A	#N/A	85.56149733	13.36898396	23.40425532
Hamilton	AHS	1205	CINCINNATI
12-E	1	531	313	0.5895	2	64	244	1	0	200	99	0	74	208	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14	31	#N/A	#N/A	0.638977636	4.47284345	9.904153355	#N/A	#N/A	78.45659164	20.57877814	31.62939297
Hamilton	AHT	1206	CINCINNATI
12-F	1	1065	602	0.5653	3	120	469	1	0	368	191	0	134	398	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	43	70	#N/A	#N/A	1.495016611	7.142857143	11.62790698	#N/A	#N/A	79.08937605	20.23608769	31.72757475
Hamilton	AHU	1207	CINCINNATI
12-G	1	434	231	0.5323	0	36	185	0	0	144	68	0	55	152	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	19	24	#N/A	#N/A	4.329004329	8.225108225	10.38961039	#N/A	#N/A	83.71040724	16.28959276	29.43722944
Hamilton	AHV	1208	CINCINNATI
12-H	1	836	445	0.5323	1	128	313	0	0	239	174	0	138	239	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	32	68	#N/A	#N/A	0.674157303	7.191011236	15.28089888	#N/A	#N/A	70.81447964	28.95927602	39.1011236
Hamilton	AHW	1209	CINCINNATI
12-I	1	618	345	0.5583	1	54	280	2	0	219	91	0	83	226	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	35	36	#N/A	#N/A	2.31884058	10.14492754	10.43478261	#N/A	#N/A	83.08605341	16.02373887	26.37681159
Hamilton	AHX	1210	CINCINNATI
12-J	1	540	320	0.5926	0	83	223	3	0	182	101	0	100	183	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	37	37	#N/A	#N/A	3.4375	11.5625	11.5625	#N/A	#N/A	72.16828479	26.86084142	31.5625
Hamilton	AHY	1211	CINCINNATI
12-K	1	588	336	0.5714	3	50	277	0	0	219	88	0	75	224	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	29	37	#N/A	#N/A	1.785714286	8.630952381	11.01190476	#N/A	#N/A	83.93939394	15.15151515	26.19047619
Hamilton	AHZ	1212	CINCINNATI
12-L	1	427	238	0.5574	1	50	177	1	0	137	81	0	65	143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	20	30	#N/A	#N/A	3.781512605	8.403361345	12.60504202	#N/A	#N/A	77.29257642	21.83406114	34.03361345
Hamilton	AIA	1301	CINCINNATI
13-A	1	627	394	0.6284	0	9	373	1	0	293	58	0	48	291	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	43	55	#N/A	#N/A	2.791878173	10.91370558	13.95939086	#N/A	#N/A	97.38903394	2.349869452	14.72081218
Hamilton	AIB	1302	CINCINNATI
13-B	1	1050	614	0.5848	1	180	423	2	0	323	226	0	191	342	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	65	81	#N/A	#N/A	1.302931596	10.58631922	13.19218241	#N/A	#N/A	69.8019802	29.7029703	36.80781759
Hamilton	AIC	1303	CINCINNATI
13-C	1	768	519	0.6758	0	17	487	1	0	370	69	0	74	358	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	80	87	#N/A	#N/A	2.697495183	15.41425819	16.76300578	#N/A	#N/A	96.43564356	3.366336634	13.29479769
Hamilton	AID	1304	CINCINNATI
13-D	1	867	536	0.6182	1	21	472	0	0	340	89	0	76	356	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	42	107	104	#N/A	#N/A	7.835820896	19.96268657	19.40298507	#N/A	#N/A	95.5465587	4.251012146	16.60447761
Hamilton	AIE	1305	CINCINNATI
13-E	1	637	420	0.6593	1	18	351	2	0	296	68	0	51	300	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	48	56	69	#N/A	#N/A	11.42857143	13.33333333	16.42857143	#N/A	#N/A	94.35483871	4.838709677	16.19047619
Hamilton	AIF	1306	CINCINNATI
13-F	1	486	299	0.6152	0	18	267	0	0	197	54	0	51	187	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	48	61	#N/A	#N/A	4.682274247	16.05351171	20.40133779	#N/A	#N/A	93.68421053	6.315789474	18.06020067
Hamilton	AIG	1307	CINCINNATI
13-G	1	590	371	0.6288	1	31	324	1	0	229	73	0	61	233	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	69	77	#N/A	#N/A	3.773584906	18.59838275	20.75471698	#N/A	#N/A	90.75630252	8.683473389	19.67654987
Hamilton	AIH	1308	CINCINNATI
13-H	1	605	365	0.6033	0	8	350	0	0	270	35	0	50	253	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	60	62	#N/A	#N/A	1.917808219	16.43835616	16.98630137	#N/A	#N/A	97.76536313	2.234636872	9.589041096
Hamilton	AII	1309	CINCINNATI
13-I	1	359	272	0.7577	0	22	244	0	0	189	58	0	47	179	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	25	46	#N/A	#N/A	2.205882353	9.191176471	16.91176471	#N/A	#N/A	91.72932331	8.270676692	21.32352941
Hamilton	AIJ	1310	CINCINNATI
13-J	1	737	536	0.7273	1	72	443	0	0	353	137	0	121	363	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20	46	52	#N/A	#N/A	3.731343284	8.582089552	9.701492537	#N/A	#N/A	85.85271318	13.95348837	25.55970149
Hamilton	AIK	1311	CINCINNATI
13-K	1	562	342	0.6085	1	8	322	1	0	259	51	0	56	245	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	32	41	#N/A	#N/A	2.923976608	9.356725146	11.98830409	#N/A	#N/A	96.98795181	2.409638554	14.9122807
Hamilton	AIL	1312	CINCINNATI
13-L	1	703	452	0.643	1	10	428	1	0	320	59	0	60	327	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	73	65	#N/A	#N/A	2.654867257	16.15044248	14.38053097	#N/A	#N/A	97.27272727	2.272727273	13.05309735
Hamilton	AIM	1313	CINCINNATI
13-M	1	425	340	0.8	2	35	294	1	0	250	61	0	62	252	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	29	26	#N/A	#N/A	2.352941176	8.529411765	7.647058824	#N/A	#N/A	88.55421687	10.54216867	17.94117647
Hamilton	AIN	1314	CINCINNATI
13-N	1	651	567	0.871	1	94	465	0	0	386	152	0	110	419	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	29	38	#N/A	#N/A	1.234567901	5.114638448	6.701940035	#N/A	#N/A	83.03571429	16.78571429	26.80776014
Hamilton	AIO	1315	CINCINNATI
13-O	1	638	512	0.8025	1	104	387	2	0	313	169	0	139	334	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18	30	39	#N/A	#N/A	3.515625	5.859375	7.6171875	#N/A	#N/A	78.34008097	21.05263158	33.0078125
Hamilton	AIP	1316	CINCINNATI
13-P	1	571	436	0.7636	0	31	390	2	0	323	69	0	70	319	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	44	47	#N/A	#N/A	2.981651376	10.09174312	10.77981651	#N/A	#N/A	92.19858156	7.328605201	15.82568807
Hamilton	AIS	1401	CINCINNATI
14-A	1/2	617	471	0.7634	1	142	314	1	0	254	186	0	44	88	0	140	169	0	0	0	0	13	31	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	2.760084926	6.581740977	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	68.55895197	31.00436681	39.49044586
Hamilton	AIZ	1408	CINCINNATI
14-H	1	629	485	0.7711	2	154	318	0	4	247	205	0	182	263	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	33	40	#N/A	#N/A	2.268041237	6.804123711	8.24742268	#N/A	#N/A	66.52719665	32.21757322	42.26804124
Hamilton	AJA	1409	CINCINNATI
14-I	1/2	582	444	0.7629	2	162	264	0	0	225	206	0	2	2	0	193	218	0	0	0	0	16	13	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	3.603603604	2.927927928	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	61.68224299	37.85046729	46.3963964
Hamilton	AJB	1410	CINCINNATI
14-J	1	566	403	0.712	2	121	265	1	0	195	177	0	167	194	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	31	42	#N/A	#N/A	3.473945409	7.692307692	10.42183623	#N/A	#N/A	68.12339332	31.10539846	43.92059553
Hamilton	AJD	1412	CINCINNATI
14-L	1	612	458	0.7484	1	132	314	0	0	240	172	0	160	254	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	46	44	#N/A	#N/A	2.401746725	10.04366812	9.6069869	#N/A	#N/A	70.24608501	29.53020134	37.55458515
Hamilton	AJF	1414	CINCINNATI
14-N	1	567	424	0.7478	0	88	307	0	0	267	125	0	122	272	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	29	32	30	#N/A	#N/A	6.839622642	7.547169811	7.075471698	#N/A	#N/A	77.72151899	22.27848101	29.48113208
Hamilton	AJG	1415	CINCINNATI
14-O	1	602	457	0.7591	1	170	280	0	0	213	215	0	192	222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	29	43	#N/A	#N/A	1.312910284	6.345733042	9.409190372	#N/A	#N/A	62.08425721	37.6940133	47.04595186
Hamilton	AJN	1501	CINCINNATI
15-A	1	602	361	0.5997	1	83	247	0	0	213	112	0	107	221	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	30	36	33	#N/A	#N/A	8.310249307	9.972299169	9.141274238	#N/A	#N/A	74.6223565	25.0755287	31.02493075
Hamilton	AJO	1502	CINCINNATI
15-B	1	635	430	0.6772	3	76	341	0	0	277	113	0	110	274	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	40	46	#N/A	#N/A	2.325581395	9.302325581	10.69767442	#N/A	#N/A	81.19047619	18.0952381	26.27906977
Hamilton	AJP	1503	CINCINNATI
15-C	1	625	441	0.7056	0	12	417	1	0	327	59	0	45	346	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	55	50	#N/A	#N/A	2.494331066	12.47165533	11.33786848	#N/A	#N/A	96.97674419	2.790697674	13.37868481
Hamilton	AJQ	1504	CINCINNATI
15-D	1	552	373	0.6757	0	17	337	0	0	260	71	0	56	266	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19	42	51	#N/A	#N/A	5.09383378	11.26005362	13.67292225	#N/A	#N/A	95.19774011	4.802259887	19.03485255
Hamilton	AJR	1505	CINCINNATI
15-E	1	678	441	0.6504	4	61	372	0	0	312	108	0	82	331	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	21	28	#N/A	#N/A	0.907029478	4.761904762	6.349206349	#N/A	#N/A	85.12585812	13.95881007	24.48979592
Hamilton	AJS	1506	CINCINNATI
15-F	1	687	510	0.7424	4	145	339	0	4	263	196	0	175	290	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22	51	45	#N/A	#N/A	4.31372549	10	8.823529412	#N/A	#N/A	68.90243902	29.47154472	38.43137255
Hamilton	AJT	1507	CINCINNATI
15-G	1	664	526	0.7922	1	98	417	0	0	329	164	0	143	341	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	33	42	#N/A	#N/A	1.901140684	6.273764259	7.984790875	#N/A	#N/A	80.81395349	18.99224806	31.17870722
Hamilton	AJU	1508	CINCINNATI
15-H	1	621	413	0.6651	3	79	326	0	0	283	97	0	92	294	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	33	27	#N/A	#N/A	1.210653753	7.99031477	6.537530266	#N/A	#N/A	79.90196078	19.3627451	23.48668281
Hamilton	AJV	1509	CINCINNATI
15-I	1	554	371	0.6697	1	88	277	0	2	234	115	0	101	241	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	22	29	#N/A	#N/A	1.347708895	5.929919137	7.81671159	#N/A	#N/A	75.27173913	23.91304348	30.99730458
Hamilton	AJW	1510	CINCINNATI
15-J	1	524	412	0.7863	3	103	302	1	0	253	140	0	135	254	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	19	23	#N/A	#N/A	0.72815534	4.611650485	5.582524272	#N/A	#N/A	73.83863081	25.18337408	33.98058252
Hamilton	AJX	1511	CINCINNATI
15-K	1	562	495	0.8808	1	176	311	1	0	259	218	0	195	285	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	18	15	#N/A	#N/A	1.212121212	3.636363636	3.03030303	#N/A	#N/A	63.599182	35.99182004	44.04040404
Hamilton	AJY	1512	CINCINNATI
15-L	1	410	286	0.6976	0	8	267	3	0	204	48	0	47	197	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	34	42	#N/A	#N/A	2.797202797	11.88811189	14.68531469	#N/A	#N/A	96.04316547	2.877697842	16.78321678
Hamilton	AJZ	1513	CINCINNATI
15-M	1	413	282	0.6828	1	60	219	0	0	185	87	0	72	193	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10	17	#N/A	#N/A	0.709219858	3.546099291	6.028368794	#N/A	#N/A	78.21428571	21.42857143	30.85106383
Hamilton	AKA	1514	CINCINNATI
15-N	1	664	473	0.7123	2	69	391	1	0	319	118	0	96	340	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	36	37	#N/A	#N/A	2.114164905	7.610993658	7.822410148	#N/A	#N/A	84.44924406	14.90280778	24.94714588
Hamilton	AKB	1515	CINCINNATI
15-O	1	585	441	0.7538	2	74	356	0	0	287	142	0	103	318	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	12	20	#N/A	#N/A	2.040816327	2.721088435	4.535147392	#N/A	#N/A	82.40740741	17.12962963	32.19954649
Hamilton	AKC	1516	CINCINNATI
15-P	1	570	415	0.7281	1	24	361	0	0	314	59	0	56	314	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	29	42	45	#N/A	#N/A	6.987951807	10.12048193	10.84337349	#N/A	#N/A	93.52331606	6.21761658	14.21686747
Hamilton	AKD	1517	CINCINNATI
15-Q	1	567	438	0.7725	2	89	332	1	0	278	129	0	119	284	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	31	35	#N/A	#N/A	3.196347032	7.077625571	7.99086758	#N/A	#N/A	78.30188679	20.99056604	29.45205479
Hamilton	AKE	1518	CINCINNATI
15-R	1	553	365	0.66	0	106	252	2	0	209	137	0	121	224	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	19	20	#N/A	#N/A	1.369863014	5.205479452	5.479452055	#N/A	#N/A	70	29.44444444	37.53424658
Hamilton	AKF	1519	CINCINNATI
15-S	1	792	599	0.7563	1	42	550	1	2	425	109	0	103	431	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	65	65	#N/A	#N/A	0.834724541	10.85141903	10.85141903	#N/A	#N/A	92.28187919	7.046979866	18.19699499
Hamilton	AKJ	1601	CINCINNATI
16-A	1	851	591	0.6945	2	98	466	1	0	359	159	0	144	368	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24	73	79	#N/A	#N/A	4.060913706	12.35194585	13.36717428	#N/A	#N/A	82.18694885	17.28395062	26.9035533
Hamilton	AKK	1701	CINCINNATI
17-A	1	309	176	0.5696	0	4	137	0	0	117	30	0	33	113	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	35	29	30	#N/A	#N/A	19.88636364	16.47727273	17.04545455	#N/A	#N/A	97.16312057	2.836879433	17.04545455
Hamilton	AKL	1702	CINCINNATI
17-B	1	762	351	0.4606	2	42	294	0	0	209	84	0	89	201	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	58	61	#N/A	#N/A	3.703703704	16.52421652	17.37891738	#N/A	#N/A	86.98224852	12.4260355	23.93162393
Hamilton	AKM	1703	CINCINNATI
17-C	1	332	225	0.6777	0	4	218	0	0	156	34	0	26	166	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	35	33	#N/A	#N/A	1.333333333	15.55555556	14.66666667	#N/A	#N/A	98.1981982	1.801801802	15.11111111
Hamilton	AKN	1704	CINCINNATI
17-D	1	1047	301	0.2875	1	20	265	1	0	181	60	0	55	178	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	60	68	#N/A	#N/A	4.651162791	19.93355482	22.59136213	#N/A	#N/A	92.33449477	6.968641115	19.93355482
Hamilton	AKO	1705	CINCINNATI
17-E	1	257	164	0.6381	0	3	155	0	0	113	17	0	20	113	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	34	31	#N/A	#N/A	3.658536585	20.73170732	18.90243902	#N/A	#N/A	98.10126582	1.898734177	10.36585366
Hamilton	AKP	1706	CINCINNATI
17-F	1	448	350	0.7813	0	9	316	0	0	275	38	0	39	264	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	25	37	47	#N/A	#N/A	7.142857143	10.57142857	13.42857143	#N/A	#N/A	97.23076923	2.769230769	10.85714286
Hamilton	AKQ	1707	CINCINNATI
17-G	1	142	80	0.5634	0	0	76	0	0	58	10	0	13	52	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	12	15	#N/A	#N/A	5	15	18.75	#N/A	#N/A	100	0	12.5
Hamilton	AKR	1708	CINCINNATI
17-H	1	727	518	0.7125	0	60	450	0	0	331	123	0	98	340	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	64	80	#N/A	#N/A	1.544401544	12.35521236	15.44401544	#N/A	#N/A	88.23529412	11.76470588	23.74517375
Hamilton	AKS	1801	CINCINNATI
18-A	1	539	334	0.6197	1	10	307	2	0	242	58	0	46	254	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	34	34	#N/A	#N/A	4.191616766	10.17964072	10.17964072	#N/A	#N/A	95.9375	3.125	17.36526946
Hamilton	AKT	1802	CINCINNATI
18-B	1	665	349	0.5248	1	18	307	0	0	222	60	0	61	217	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	23	67	71	#N/A	#N/A	6.59025788	19.19770774	20.34383954	#N/A	#N/A	94.17177914	5.521472393	17.19197708
Hamilton	AKU	1803	CINCINNATI
18-C	1	496	301	0.6069	0	8	274	0	0	236	31	0	37	238	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19	34	26	#N/A	#N/A	6.312292359	11.29568106	8.637873754	#N/A	#N/A	97.16312057	2.836879433	10.29900332
Hamilton	AKV	1804	CINCINNATI
18-D	1	235	129	0.5489	0	3	121	0	0	92	21	0	19	92	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	16	18	#N/A	#N/A	3.875968992	12.40310078	13.95348837	#N/A	#N/A	97.58064516	2.419354839	16.27906977
Hamilton	AKW	1901	CINCINNATI
19-A	1	525	410	0.781	0	283	125	1	0	89	294	0	306	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	27	14	#N/A	#N/A	0.243902439	6.585365854	3.414634146	#N/A	#N/A	30.56234719	69.19315403	71.70731707
Hamilton	AKX	1902	CINCINNATI
19-B	1	440	281	0.6386	2	138	131	1	0	96	159	0	169	95	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	26	17	#N/A	#N/A	3.202846975	9.252669039	6.049822064	#N/A	#N/A	48.16176471	50.73529412	56.58362989
Hamilton	AKY	1903	CINCINNATI
19-C	1	568	411	0.7236	2	243	162	0	0	117	273	0	286	113	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	21	12	#N/A	#N/A	0.97323601	5.109489051	2.919708029	#N/A	#N/A	39.8034398	59.70515971	66.42335766
Hamilton	AKZ	1904	CINCINNATI
19-D	1	615	487	0.7902	2	332	136	1	0	88	376	0	379	86	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16	23	22	#N/A	#N/A	3.285420945	4.722792608	4.517453799	#N/A	#N/A	28.87473461	70.48832272	77.2073922
Hamilton	ALA	1905	CINCINNATI
19-E	1	604	336	0.5563	0	171	156	0	0	113	193	0	197	119	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	30	20	#N/A	#N/A	2.678571429	8.928571429	5.952380952	#N/A	#N/A	47.70642202	52.29357798	57.44047619
Hamilton	ALB	1906	CINCINNATI
19-F	1	479	234	0.4885	2	80	144	0	0	101	101	0	111	93	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	32	30	#N/A	#N/A	3.418803419	13.67521368	12.82051282	#N/A	#N/A	63.71681416	35.39823009	43.16239316
Hamilton	ALC	1907	CINCINNATI
19-G	1	374	209	0.5588	0	101	102	1	0	65	125	0	129	63	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	19	17	#N/A	#N/A	2.392344498	9.090909091	8.133971292	#N/A	#N/A	50	49.50980392	59.80861244
Hamilton	ALD	1908	CINCINNATI
19-H	1	559	415	0.7424	0	284	118	1	0	93	307	0	320	87	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	15	8	#N/A	#N/A	2.891566265	3.614457831	1.927710843	#N/A	#N/A	29.28039702	70.47146402	73.97590361
Hamilton	ALE	2001	CINCINNATI
20-A	1	630	353	0.5603	1	112	221	1	0	168	156	0	178	139	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18	29	36	#N/A	#N/A	5.099150142	8.21529745	10.19830028	#N/A	#N/A	65.97014925	33.43283582	44.19263456
Hamilton	ALF	2002	CINCINNATI
20-B	1	633	413	0.6524	1	185	217	0	0	159	224	0	213	166	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	30	34	#N/A	#N/A	2.421307506	7.263922518	8.232445521	#N/A	#N/A	53.84615385	45.9057072	54.23728814
Hamilton	ALG	2003	CINCINNATI
20-C	1	649	454	0.6995	2	181	264	1	0	193	230	0	218	200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	31	36	#N/A	#N/A	1.321585903	6.828193833	7.929515419	#N/A	#N/A	58.92857143	40.40178571	50.66079295
Hamilton	ALH	2004	CINCINNATI
20-D	1	562	332	0.5907	0	116	205	1	0	150	153	0	149	145	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	29	38	#N/A	#N/A	3.012048193	8.734939759	11.44578313	#N/A	#N/A	63.66459627	36.02484472	46.08433735
Hamilton	ALI	2005	CINCINNATI
20-E	1	648	403	0.6219	1	155	240	1	0	184	186	0	202	174	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	33	27	#N/A	#N/A	1.488833747	8.188585608	6.699751861	#N/A	#N/A	60.4534005	39.04282116	46.15384615
Hamilton	ALJ	2006	CINCINNATI
20-F	1	585	332	0.5675	2	131	188	0	0	163	153	0	154	164	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	16	14	#N/A	#N/A	3.313253012	4.819277108	4.21686747	#N/A	#N/A	58.56697819	40.80996885	46.08433735
Hamilton	ALK	2007	CINCINNATI
20-G	1	629	350	0.5564	0	107	236	2	0	153	155	0	155	160	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	42	35	#N/A	#N/A	1.428571429	12	10	#N/A	#N/A	68.4057971	31.01449275	44.28571429
Hamilton	ALL	2008	CINCINNATI
20-H	1	587	372	0.6337	2	145	221	1	0	161	183	0	180	163	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	28	29	#N/A	#N/A	0.806451613	7.52688172	7.795698925	#N/A	#N/A	59.89159892	39.29539295	49.19354839
Hamilton	ALM	2009	CINCINNATI
20-I	1	542	346	0.6384	0	170	165	0	2	115	202	0	197	115	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	29	34	#N/A	#N/A	3.179190751	8.38150289	9.826589595	#N/A	#N/A	48.96142433	50.44510386	58.38150289
Hamilton	ALN	2010	CINCINNATI
20-J	1	586	385	0.657	2	188	190	0	0	137	232	0	223	144	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	16	18	#N/A	#N/A	1.298701299	4.155844156	4.675324675	#N/A	#N/A	50	49.47368421	60.25974026
Hamilton	ALO	2011	CINCINNATI
20-K	1	402	194	0.4826	0	39	140	0	0	119	56	0	71	111	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	19	12	#N/A	#N/A	7.731958763	9.793814433	6.18556701	#N/A	#N/A	78.2122905	21.7877095	28.86597938
Hamilton	ALP	2012	CINCINNATI
20-L	1	492	327	0.6646	0	112	204	1	0	141	149	0	143	148	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	37	36	#N/A	#N/A	3.058103976	11.31498471	11.00917431	#N/A	#N/A	64.3533123	35.33123028	45.56574924
Hamilton	ALR	2101	CINCINNATI
21-A	1	600	384	0.64	1	96	272	4	0	210	128	0	141	207	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	46	36	#N/A	#N/A	2.864583333	11.97916667	9.375	#N/A	#N/A	72.92225201	25.73726542	33.33333333
Hamilton	ALS	2102	CINCINNATI
21-B	1	448	269	0.6004	2	56	205	0	0	139	93	0	88	148	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	37	33	#N/A	#N/A	2.230483271	13.75464684	12.26765799	#N/A	#N/A	77.94676806	21.29277567	34.57249071
Hamilton	ALT	2103	CINCINNATI
21-C	1	260	150	0.5769	1	46	100	0	0	82	61	0	69	71	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7	10	#N/A	#N/A	2	4.666666667	6.666666667	#N/A	#N/A	68.02721088	31.29251701	40.66666667
Hamilton	ALU	2104	CINCINNATI
21-D	1	563	291	0.5169	0	67	189	0	0	162	109	0	101	159	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	35	20	31	#N/A	#N/A	12.02749141	6.872852234	10.65292096	#N/A	#N/A	73.828125	26.171875	37.45704467
Hamilton	ALV	2105	CINCINNATI
21-E	1	551	345	0.6261	1	17	305	1	0	251	62	0	51	248	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21	32	46	#N/A	#N/A	6.086956522	9.275362319	13.33333333	#N/A	#N/A	94.13580247	5.24691358	17.97101449
Hamilton	ALW	2106	CINCINNATI
21-F	1	417	181	0.4341	0	8	168	0	0	125	26	0	35	114	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	30	32	#N/A	#N/A	2.762430939	16.57458564	17.67955801	#N/A	#N/A	95.45454545	4.545454545	14.36464088
Hamilton	ALX	2107	CINCINNATI
21-G	1	576	361	0.6267	1	155	197	1	0	146	182	0	194	145	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	33	22	#N/A	#N/A	1.939058172	9.141274238	6.094182825	#N/A	#N/A	55.64971751	43.78531073	50.41551247
Hamilton	ALY	2108	CINCINNATI
21-H	1	478	243	0.5084	0	70	170	0	0	123	96	0	101	121	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	24	21	#N/A	#N/A	1.234567901	9.87654321	8.641975309	#N/A	#N/A	70.83333333	29.16666667	39.50617284
Hamilton	ALZ	2109	CINCINNATI
21-I	1	632	325	0.5142	0	40	259	2	0	205	86	0	81	212	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24	34	32	#N/A	#N/A	7.384615385	10.46153846	9.846153846	#N/A	#N/A	86.04651163	13.28903654	26.46153846
Hamilton	AMA	2110	CINCINNATI
21-J	1	566	305	0.5389	1	124	175	2	0	135	154	0	154	130	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	21	#N/A	#N/A	0.983606557	5.245901639	6.885245902	#N/A	#N/A	57.94701987	41.05960265	50.49180328
Hamilton	BPX	2111	CINCINNATI
21-K	1	508	293	0.5768	1	22	258	0	0	195	62	0	67	184	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	36	42	#N/A	#N/A	4.09556314	12.28668942	14.33447099	#N/A	#N/A	91.81494662	7.829181495	21.16040956
Hamilton	AMB	2201	CINCINNATI
22-A	1	694	461	0.6643	3	94	352	0	0	275	140	0	151	271	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	46	39	#N/A	#N/A	2.603036876	9.978308026	8.459869848	#N/A	#N/A	78.39643653	20.93541203	30.36876356
Hamilton	AMC	2202	CINCINNATI
22-B	1	599	349	0.5826	1	98	233	2	0	189	124	0	120	195	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	36	34	#N/A	#N/A	4.297994269	10.31518625	9.742120344	#N/A	#N/A	69.76047904	29.34131737	35.53008596
Hamilton	AMD	2203	CINCINNATI
22-C	1	589	359	0.6095	0	13	303	0	0	277	42	0	56	266	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	43	40	37	#N/A	#N/A	11.97771588	11.14206128	10.30640669	#N/A	#N/A	95.88607595	4.113924051	11.69916435
Hamilton	AME	2204	CINCINNATI
22-D	1	717	488	0.6806	0	17	455	0	2	364	73	0	63	375	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16	51	50	#N/A	#N/A	3.278688525	10.45081967	10.24590164	#N/A	#N/A	95.99156118	3.58649789	14.95901639
Hamilton	AMF	2205	CINCINNATI
22-E	1	684	448	0.655	3	65	373	0	0	284	124	0	99	303	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	40	46	#N/A	#N/A	1.5625	8.928571429	10.26785714	#N/A	#N/A	84.58049887	14.73922902	27.67857143
Hamilton	BPY	2206	CINCINNATI
22-F	1	830	467	0.5627	1	22	425	0	0	318	80	0	90	300	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19	69	77	#N/A	#N/A	4.068522484	14.7751606	16.4882227	#N/A	#N/A	94.86607143	4.910714286	17.13062099
Hamilton	AMG	2301	CINCINNATI
23-A	1	544	380	0.6985	3	133	237	3	0	178	164	0	156	193	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	38	31	#N/A	#N/A	1.052631579	10	8.157894737	#N/A	#N/A	63.03191489	35.37234043	43.15789474
Hamilton	AMI	2302	CINCINNATI
23-B	1	463	321	0.6933	2	63	236	1	0	189	108	0	97	203	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19	24	21	#N/A	#N/A	5.919003115	7.476635514	6.542056075	#N/A	#N/A	78.14569536	20.86092715	33.64485981
Hamilton	AMK	2303	CINCINNATI
23-C	1	449	364	0.8107	1	72	279	0	1	244	92	0	88	244	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	28	32	#N/A	#N/A	3.296703297	7.692307692	8.791208791	#N/A	#N/A	79.0368272	20.39660057	25.27472527
Hamilton	AMM	2304	CINCINNATI
23-D	1	657	492	0.7489	3	105	378	1	0	323	138	0	133	340	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	31	19	#N/A	#N/A	1.016260163	6.300813008	3.861788618	#N/A	#N/A	77.61806982	21.56057495	28.04878049
Hamilton	AMO	2305	CINCINNATI
23-E	1	549	415	0.7559	0	25	373	1	0	288	70	0	65	283	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16	57	67	#N/A	#N/A	3.855421687	13.73493976	16.14457831	#N/A	#N/A	93.48370927	6.26566416	16.86746988
Hamilton	AMQ	2306	CINCINNATI
23-F	1	643	467	0.7263	1	100	358	0	0	289	151	0	125	314	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	27	28	#N/A	#N/A	1.713062099	5.781584582	5.995717345	#N/A	#N/A	77.9956427	21.78649237	32.33404711
Hamilton	AMS	2307	CINCINNATI
23-G	1	607	439	0.7232	0	81	327	1	0	269	133	0	117	282	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	30	37	40	#N/A	#N/A	6.833712984	8.428246014	9.111617312	#N/A	#N/A	79.95110024	19.80440098	30.29612756
Hamilton	AMU	2308	CINCINNATI
23-H	1	579	503	0.8687	1	245	249	0	0	198	280	0	275	203	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	25	25	#N/A	#N/A	1.590457256	4.970178926	4.970178926	#N/A	#N/A	50.3030303	49.49494949	55.66600398
Hamilton	AMW	2309	CINCINNATI
23-I	1	661	537	0.8124	1	263	267	0	0	210	297	0	287	215	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	30	35	#N/A	#N/A	1.117318436	5.586592179	6.517690875	#N/A	#N/A	50.28248588	49.52919021	55.30726257
Hamilton	AMY	2310	CINCINNATI
23-J	1	733	489	0.6671	0	151	328	0	0	248	192	0	198	247	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	49	44	#N/A	#N/A	2.044989775	10.0204499	8.99795501	#N/A	#N/A	68.47599165	31.52400835	39.26380368
Hamilton	ANA	2311	CINCINNATI
23-K	1	530	427	0.8057	0	165	256	0	0	201	198	0	190	209	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	28	28	#N/A	#N/A	1.405152225	6.557377049	6.557377049	#N/A	#N/A	60.80760095	39.19239905	46.37002342
Hamilton	ANB	2312	CINCINNATI
23-L	1	582	400	0.6873	1	181	197	2	0	164	210	0	220	158	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19	26	22	#N/A	#N/A	4.75	6.5	5.5	#N/A	#N/A	51.70603675	47.50656168	52.5
Hamilton	ANC	2313	CINCINNATI
23-M	1	538	413	0.7658	2	162	234	1	0	173	201	0	182	189	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	39	42	#N/A	#N/A	3.389830508	9.443099274	10.16949153	#N/A	#N/A	58.64661654	40.60150376	48.66828087
Hamilton	AND	2314	CINCINNATI
23-N	1	540	395	0.7315	0	147	234	2	2	181	188	0	183	189	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	26	23	#N/A	#N/A	3.037974684	6.582278481	5.82278481	#N/A	#N/A	60.77922078	38.18181818	47.59493671
Hamilton	ANE	2315	CINCINNATI
23-O	1	551	410	0.7441	1	57	339	3	0	263	103	0	90	263	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	44	57	#N/A	#N/A	2.43902439	10.73170732	13.90243902	#N/A	#N/A	84.75	14.25	25.12195122
Hamilton	ANF	2316	CINCINNATI
23-P	1	864	716	0.8287	1	327	375	0	0	297	376	0	373	304	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	43	39	#N/A	#N/A	1.815642458	6.005586592	5.446927374	#N/A	#N/A	53.3428165	46.51493599	52.51396648
Hamilton	ANG	2317	CINCINNATI
23-Q	1	634	528	0.8328	0	156	355	0	0	284	217	0	197	304	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17	27	27	#N/A	#N/A	3.21969697	5.113636364	5.113636364	#N/A	#N/A	69.47162427	30.52837573	41.09848485
Hamilton	ANH	2318	CINCINNATI
23-R	1	564	401	0.711	0	117	273	1	0	220	154	0	143	227	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	27	31	#N/A	#N/A	2.493765586	6.733167082	7.730673317	#N/A	#N/A	69.82097187	29.92327366	38.40399002
Hamilton	ANI	2319	CINCINNATI
23-S	1	701	458	0.6534	1	103	344	0	0	268	136	0	133	270	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	54	55	#N/A	#N/A	2.183406114	11.79039301	12.00873362	#N/A	#N/A	76.78571429	22.99107143	29.69432314
Hamilton	ANJ	2320	CINCINNATI
23-T	1	855	518	0.6058	1	43	464	0	0	359	92	0	96	364	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	67	58	#N/A	#N/A	1.930501931	12.93436293	11.1969112	#N/A	#N/A	91.33858268	8.464566929	17.76061776
Hamilton	ANK	2321	CINCINNATI
23-U	1	589	463	0.7861	1	80	367	2	0	290	131	0	133	288	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	42	42	#N/A	#N/A	2.807775378	9.071274298	9.071274298	#N/A	#N/A	81.55555556	17.77777778	28.2937365
Hamilton	ANL	2322	CINCINNATI
23-V	1	678	440	0.649	1	57	345	1	0	285	121	0	118	294	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	36	34	28	#N/A	#N/A	8.181818182	7.727272727	6.363636364	#N/A	#N/A	85.3960396	14.10891089	27.5
Hamilton	ANM	2323	CINCINNATI
23-W	1	360	272	0.7556	1	107	158	0	0	130	127	0	119	134	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	15	19	#N/A	#N/A	2.205882353	5.514705882	6.985294118	#N/A	#N/A	59.39849624	40.22556391	46.69117647
Hamilton	ANN	2324	CINCINNATI
23-X	1	503	345	0.6859	0	51	282	2	0	217	89	0	75	233	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	39	37	#N/A	#N/A	2.898550725	11.30434783	10.72463768	#N/A	#N/A	84.17910448	15.2238806	25.79710145
Hamilton	ANO	2325	CINCINNATI
23-Y	1	583	470	0.8062	1	181	278	4	0	231	212	0	203	230	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	27	37	#N/A	#N/A	1.276595745	5.744680851	7.872340426	#N/A	#N/A	59.9137931	39.00862069	45.10638298
Hamilton	ANP	2326	CINCINNATI
23-Z	1	577	457	0.792	1	280	158	0	0	111	301	0	294	113	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18	45	50	#N/A	#N/A	3.938730853	9.846827133	10.94091904	#N/A	#N/A	35.99088838	63.78132118	65.8643326
Hamilton	AMH	2327	CINCINNATI
23-AA	1	546	435	0.7967	2	253	168	0	0	111	296	0	304	110	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	28	21	#N/A	#N/A	2.75862069	6.436781609	4.827586207	#N/A	#N/A	39.71631206	59.8108747	68.04597701
Hamilton	AMJ	2328	CINCINNATI
23-BB	1	585	455	0.7778	0	25	422	0	0	306	83	0	75	316	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	66	64	#N/A	#N/A	1.758241758	14.50549451	14.06593407	#N/A	#N/A	94.40715884	5.592841163	18.24175824
Hamilton	AML	2329	CINCINNATI
23-CC	1	445	288	0.6472	3	62	217	0	0	188	84	0	80	194	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	16	14	#N/A	#N/A	2.083333333	5.555555556	4.861111111	#N/A	#N/A	76.95035461	21.9858156	29.16666667
Hamilton	AMN	2330	CINCINNATI
23-DD	1	573	451	0.7871	2	97	342	4	0	267	137	0	132	276	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	47	43	#N/A	#N/A	1.33037694	10.42128603	9.534368071	#N/A	#N/A	76.85393258	21.79775281	30.37694013
Hamilton	AMP	2331	CINCINNATI
23-EE	1	637	516	0.81	1	215	293	0	0	222	258	0	243	235	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	36	38	#N/A	#N/A	1.356589147	6.976744186	7.364341085	#N/A	#N/A	57.56385069	42.23968566	50
Hamilton	AMR	2332	CINCINNATI
23-FF	1	425	362	0.8518	1	145	207	1	0	173	173	0	164	180	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	16	18	#N/A	#N/A	2.209944751	4.419889503	4.972375691	#N/A	#N/A	58.47457627	40.96045198	47.79005525
Hamilton	ANQ	2401	CINCINNATI
24-A	1	656	490	0.747	1	63	409	1	0	331	119	0	118	327	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16	40	45	#N/A	#N/A	3.265306122	8.163265306	9.183673469	#N/A	#N/A	86.28691983	13.29113924	24.28571429
Hamilton	ANR	2402	CINCINNATI
24-B	1	652	483	0.7408	0	124	353	0	0	283	162	0	162	284	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	38	37	#N/A	#N/A	1.242236025	7.867494824	7.660455487	#N/A	#N/A	74.00419287	25.99580713	33.54037267
Hamilton	ANS	2403	CINCINNATI
24-C	1	718	605	0.8426	0	36	549	0	0	444	100	0	85	440	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20	61	80	#N/A	#N/A	3.305785124	10.08264463	13.2231405	#N/A	#N/A	93.84615385	6.153846154	16.52892562
Hamilton	ANT	2404	CINCINNATI
24-D	1	652	468	0.7178	2	286	173	1	0	132	307	0	307	130	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	29	31	#N/A	#N/A	1.282051282	6.196581197	6.623931624	#N/A	#N/A	37.44588745	61.9047619	65.5982906
Hamilton	ANU	2405	CINCINNATI
24-E	1	507	300	0.5917	1	51	216	0	0	192	87	0	87	184	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	32	21	29	#N/A	#N/A	10.66666667	7	9.666666667	#N/A	#N/A	80.59701493	19.02985075	29
Hamilton	ANV	2406	CINCINNATI
24-F	1	580	417	0.719	1	77	327	0	0	265	122	0	113	269	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	30	35	#N/A	#N/A	2.877697842	7.194244604	8.393285372	#N/A	#N/A	80.74074074	19.01234568	29.25659472
Hamilton	ANW	2407	CINCINNATI
24-G	1	457	313	0.6849	0	119	182	3	0	141	140	0	133	145	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	32	35	#N/A	#N/A	2.875399361	10.22364217	11.18210863	#N/A	#N/A	59.86842105	39.14473684	44.7284345
Hamilton	ANX	2408	CINCINNATI
24-H	1	721	483	0.6699	1	211	259	1	0	176	262	0	257	186	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	45	40	#N/A	#N/A	2.277432712	9.316770186	8.281573499	#N/A	#N/A	54.87288136	44.70338983	54.24430642
Hamilton	ANY	2409	CINCINNATI
24-I	1	269	162	0.6022	0	82	75	0	0	49	97	0	83	60	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	16	19	#N/A	#N/A	3.086419753	9.87654321	11.72839506	#N/A	#N/A	47.77070064	52.22929936	59.87654321
Hamilton	ANZ	2410	CINCINNATI
24-J	1	778	442	0.5681	0	21	367	1	0	304	88	0	77	320	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	53	50	45	#N/A	#N/A	11.99095023	11.31221719	10.18099548	#N/A	#N/A	94.34447301	5.398457584	19.90950226
Hamilton	AOA	2411	CINCINNATI
24-K	1	410	245	0.5976	1	77	161	0	0	125	102	0	95	120	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	18	30	#N/A	#N/A	2.448979592	7.346938776	12.24489796	#N/A	#N/A	67.36401674	32.21757322	41.63265306
Hamilton	AOB	2412	CINCINNATI
24-L	1	554	420	0.7581	1	191	212	6	0	147	229	0	215	162	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	44	43	#N/A	#N/A	2.380952381	10.47619048	10.23809524	#N/A	#N/A	51.70731707	46.58536585	54.52380952
Hamilton	AOC	2413	CINCINNATI
24-M	1	608	435	0.7138	0	242	189	0	0	141	267	0	250	145	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	27	40	#N/A	#N/A	0.91954023	6.206896552	9.195402299	#N/A	#N/A	43.85150812	56.14849188	61.37931034
Hamilton	AOD	2414	CINCINNATI
24-N	1	532	305	0.5733	1	4	290	1	0	231	33	0	35	217	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	41	53	#N/A	#N/A	2.950819672	13.44262295	17.37704918	#N/A	#N/A	97.97297297	1.351351351	10.81967213
Hamilton	AOE	2415	CINCINNATI
24-O	1	550	325	0.5909	0	13	288	0	0	223	54	0	47	221	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24	48	57	#N/A	#N/A	7.384615385	14.76923077	17.53846154	#N/A	#N/A	95.68106312	4.318936877	16.61538462
Hamilton	AOF	2416	CINCINNATI
24-P	1	382	212	0.555	0	59	147	1	0	115	72	0	74	110	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	25	28	#N/A	#N/A	2.358490566	11.79245283	13.20754717	#N/A	#N/A	71.01449275	28.50241546	33.96226415
Hamilton	AOG	2417	CINCINNATI
24-Q	1	590	457	0.7746	1	143	300	0	0	207	194	0	185	210	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	56	62	#N/A	#N/A	2.84463895	12.25382932	13.56673961	#N/A	#N/A	67.56756757	32.20720721	42.45076586
Hamilton	AOH	2418	CINCINNATI
24-R	1	498	371	0.745	2	197	155	2	0	124	219	0	214	120	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	28	37	#N/A	#N/A	4.043126685	7.547169811	9.973045822	#N/A	#N/A	43.53932584	55.33707865	59.0296496
Hamilton	AOI	2501	CINCINNATI
25-A	1	928	561	0.6045	3	85	460	2	0	346	160	0	160	348	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	55	53	#N/A	#N/A	1.960784314	9.803921569	9.44741533	#N/A	#N/A	83.63636364	15.45454545	28.52049911
Hamilton	AOK	2502	CINCINNATI
25-B	1	585	375	0.641	0	140	209	1	0	169	177	0	182	169	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	25	29	24	#N/A	#N/A	6.666666667	7.733333333	6.4	#N/A	#N/A	59.71428571	40	47.2
Hamilton	AOM	2503	CINCINNATI
25-C	1	560	355	0.6339	3	152	192	1	0	142	195	0	202	136	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	18	17	#N/A	#N/A	1.971830986	5.070422535	4.788732394	#N/A	#N/A	55.17241379	43.67816092	54.92957746
Hamilton	AON	2504	CINCINNATI
25-D	1	616	451	0.7321	0	200	238	1	0	171	249	0	244	173	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	31	34	#N/A	#N/A	2.66075388	6.873614191	7.538802661	#N/A	#N/A	54.21412301	45.55808656	55.21064302
Hamilton	AOO	2505	CINCINNATI
25-E	1	640	364	0.5688	3	136	218	0	0	158	163	0	171	154	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	43	39	#N/A	#N/A	1.923076923	11.81318681	10.71428571	#N/A	#N/A	61.06442577	38.0952381	44.78021978
Hamilton	AOP	2506	CINCINNATI
25-F	1	631	529	0.8384	3	349	168	1	0	114	391	0	394	121	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	24	14	#N/A	#N/A	1.512287335	4.536862004	2.646502836	#N/A	#N/A	32.24568138	66.9865643	73.91304348
Hamilton	AOQ	2507	CINCINNATI
25-G	1	628	463	0.7373	2	256	189	0	0	145	289	0	309	137	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16	29	17	#N/A	#N/A	3.455723542	6.26349892	3.671706263	#N/A	#N/A	42.28187919	57.27069351	62.41900648
Hamilton	AOR	2508	CINCINNATI
25-H	1	577	377	0.6534	0	124	247	0	0	177	171	0	167	182	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	29	28	#N/A	#N/A	1.591511936	7.692307692	7.427055703	#N/A	#N/A	66.57681941	33.42318059	45.35809019
Hamilton	AOS	2509	CINCINNATI
25-I	1	430	321	0.7465	1	203	110	1	1	75	231	0	250	65	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	15	6	#N/A	#N/A	1.869158879	4.672897196	1.869158879	#N/A	#N/A	34.81012658	64.24050633	71.96261682
Hamilton	AOT	2510	CINCINNATI
25-J	1	521	445	0.8541	1	306	131	0	0	92	325	0	326	102	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	28	17	#N/A	#N/A	1.573033708	6.292134831	3.820224719	#N/A	#N/A	29.9086758	69.8630137	73.03370787
Hamilton	AOU	2511	CINCINNATI
25-K	1	559	432	0.7728	2	274	152	0	0	112	299	0	313	106	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	21	13	#N/A	#N/A	0.925925926	4.861111111	3.009259259	#N/A	#N/A	35.51401869	64.01869159	69.21296296
Hamilton	AOV	2512	CINCINNATI
25-L	1	790	531	0.6709	2	241	253	2	0	194	292	0	295	180	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	33	45	56	#N/A	#N/A	6.214689266	8.474576271	10.54613936	#N/A	#N/A	50.80321285	48.3935743	54.9905838
Hamilton	AOW	2513	CINCINNATI
25-M	1	575	480	0.8348	3	306	162	2	0	113	346	0	338	127	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	21	15	#N/A	#N/A	1.458333333	4.375	3.125	#N/A	#N/A	34.24947146	64.69344609	72.08333333
Hamilton	AOX	2514	CINCINNATI
25-N	1	592	418	0.7061	2	259	150	4	0	115	276	0	290	106	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	27	22	#N/A	#N/A	0.717703349	6.459330144	5.263157895	#N/A	#N/A	36.14457831	62.40963855	66.02870813
Hamilton	AOY	2515	CINCINNATI
25-O	1	529	360	0.6805	1	192	157	2	0	117	223	0	229	110	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	20	21	#N/A	#N/A	2.222222222	5.555555556	5.833333333	#N/A	#N/A	44.60227273	54.54545455	61.94444444
Hamilton	AOZ	2516	CINCINNATI
25-P	1	585	398	0.6803	0	238	154	1	0	101	272	0	265	110	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	25	23	#N/A	#N/A	1.256281407	6.281407035	5.778894472	#N/A	#N/A	39.18575064	60.55979644	68.34170854
Hamilton	APA	2517	CINCINNATI
25-Q	1	599	336	0.5609	0	128	185	0	0	134	181	0	186	129	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	23	21	21	#N/A	#N/A	6.845238095	6.25	6.25	#N/A	#N/A	59.10543131	40.89456869	53.86904762
Hamilton	APB	2518	CINCINNATI
25-R	1	423	314	0.7423	1	176	134	1	0	85	216	0	211	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13	13	#N/A	#N/A	0.636942675	4.140127389	4.140127389	#N/A	#N/A	42.94871795	56.41025641	68.78980892
Hamilton	APC	2519	CINCINNATI
25-S	1	551	446	0.8094	2	293	143	2	0	90	329	0	349	74	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	27	23	#N/A	#N/A	1.34529148	6.053811659	5.156950673	#N/A	#N/A	32.5	66.59090909	73.76681614
Hamilton	APD	2520	CINCINNATI
25-T	1	370	270	0.7297	2	146	117	0	0	76	180	0	181	75	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	14	14	#N/A	#N/A	1.851851852	5.185185185	5.185185185	#N/A	#N/A	44.1509434	55.09433962	66.66666667
Hamilton	APE	2521	CINCINNATI
25-U	1	549	426	0.776	1	255	166	0	0	119	283	0	289	120	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	24	17	#N/A	#N/A	0.938967136	5.633802817	3.990610329	#N/A	#N/A	39.33649289	60.42654028	66.43192488
Hamilton	APF	2522	CINCINNATI
25-V	1	466	384	0.824	0	203	167	0	0	114	245	0	260	110	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	25	14	#N/A	#N/A	3.645833333	6.510416667	3.645833333	#N/A	#N/A	45.13513514	54.86486486	63.80208333
Hamilton	APG	2523	CINCINNATI
25-W	1	610	441	0.723	0	226	203	2	0	138	278	0	278	138	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	25	25	#N/A	#N/A	2.267573696	5.66893424	5.66893424	#N/A	#N/A	47.09976798	52.4361949	63.03854875
Hamilton	APK	2601	CINCINNATI
26-A	1	632	498	0.769	1	293	196	1	0	132	327	0	338	136	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	39	24	#N/A	#N/A	1.40562249	7.831325301	4.819277108	#N/A	#N/A	39.9185336	59.67413442	65.6626506
Hamilton	APM	2602	CINCINNATI
26-B	1	231	170	0.7879	2	66	98	0	0	77	95	0	101	74	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	-2	-5	#N/A	#N/A	2.352941176	-1.176470588	-2.941176471	#N/A	#N/A	59.03614458	39.75903614	55.88235294
Hamilton	APO	2603	CINCINNATI
26-C	1	630	478	0.7587	0	256	213	1	0	162	284	0	297	162	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	32	19	#N/A	#N/A	1.673640167	6.694560669	3.974895397	#N/A	#N/A	45.31914894	54.46808511	59.41422594
Hamilton	APQ	2604	CINCINNATI
26-D	1	621	319	0.5137	1	31	248	0	0	212	60	0	58	214	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	39	47	47	#N/A	#N/A	12.22570533	14.73354232	14.73354232	#N/A	#N/A	88.57142857	11.07142857	18.80877743
Hamilton	APS	2605	CINCINNATI
26-E	1	595	407	0.684	0	67	322	0	0	257	108	0	108	257	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18	42	42	#N/A	#N/A	4.422604423	10.31941032	10.31941032	#N/A	#N/A	82.77634961	17.22365039	26.53562654
Hamilton	APU	2606	CINCINNATI
26-F	1	657	495	0.7534	3	268	215	0	0	155	317	0	322	154	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	23	19	#N/A	#N/A	1.818181818	4.646464646	3.838383838	#N/A	#N/A	44.23868313	55.14403292	64.04040404
Hamilton	APW	2607	CINCINNATI
26-G	1	571	354	0.62	2	40	298	0	0	209	95	0	91	227	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	50	36	#N/A	#N/A	3.95480226	14.12429379	10.16949153	#N/A	#N/A	87.64705882	11.76470588	26.83615819
Hamilton	APY	2608	CINCINNATI
26-H	1	455	274	0.6022	0	8	256	1	0	185	46	0	45	187	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	43	42	#N/A	#N/A	3.284671533	15.69343066	15.32846715	#N/A	#N/A	96.60377358	3.018867925	16.78832117
Hamilton	AQA	2609	CINCINNATI
26-I	1	561	406	0.7237	2	220	167	2	1	124	261	0	256	124	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	21	26	#N/A	#N/A	3.694581281	5.172413793	6.403940887	#N/A	#N/A	42.60204082	56.12244898	64.28571429
Hamilton	AQC	2610	CINCINNATI
26-J	1	493	373	0.7566	0	95	262	1	1	209	136	0	137	214	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	28	22	#N/A	#N/A	4.021447721	7.506702413	5.898123324	#N/A	#N/A	72.98050139	26.46239554	36.46112601
Hamilton	AQE	2611	CINCINNATI
26-K	1	710	490	0.6901	1	174	305	1	0	225	230	0	238	225	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	35	27	#N/A	#N/A	1.836734694	7.142857143	5.510204082	#N/A	#N/A	63.40956341	36.17463617	46.93877551
Hamilton	AQG	2612	CINCINNATI
26-L	1	661	524	0.7927	1	318	194	3	0	154	346	0	353	157	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	24	14	#N/A	#N/A	1.526717557	4.580152672	2.671755725	#N/A	#N/A	37.59689922	61.62790698	66.03053435
Hamilton	AQI	2613	CINCINNATI
26-M	1	554	357	0.6444	1	58	285	0	0	228	87	0	103	218	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	42	36	#N/A	#N/A	3.641456583	11.76470588	10.08403361	#N/A	#N/A	82.84883721	16.86046512	24.3697479
Hamilton	AQK	2614	CINCINNATI
26-N	1	616	407	0.6607	0	109	271	1	0	213	161	0	165	214	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	26	33	28	#N/A	#N/A	6.388206388	8.108108108	6.87960688	#N/A	#N/A	71.12860892	28.60892388	39.55773956
Hamilton	AQM	2615	CINCINNATI
26-O	1	832	439	0.5276	1	10	404	2	0	297	73	0	77	270	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22	69	92	#N/A	#N/A	5.011389522	15.71753986	20.95671982	#N/A	#N/A	96.882494	2.398081535	16.62870159
Hamilton	AQO	2616	CINCINNATI
26-P	1	590	474	0.8034	0	235	234	0	0	153	287	0	286	159	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	34	29	#N/A	#N/A	1.054852321	7.172995781	6.11814346	#N/A	#N/A	49.89339019	50.10660981	60.54852321
Hamilton	AQP	2617	CINCINNATI
26-Q	1	715	498	0.6965	4	115	364	1	0	287	165	0	168	299	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	46	31	#N/A	#N/A	2.81124498	9.236947791	6.224899598	#N/A	#N/A	75.20661157	23.76033058	33.13253012
Hamilton	AQQ	2618	CINCINNATI
26-R	1	551	408	0.7405	0	181	219	2	0	148	229	0	236	147	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	31	25	#N/A	#N/A	1.470588235	7.598039216	6.12745098	#N/A	#N/A	54.47761194	45.02487562	56.12745098
Hamilton	AQR	2619	CINCINNATI
26-S	1	469	336	0.7164	0	204	123	0	0	81	234	0	241	77	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	21	18	#N/A	#N/A	2.678571429	6.25	5.357142857	#N/A	#N/A	37.6146789	62.3853211	69.64285714
Hamilton	AQS	2620	CINCINNATI
26-T	1	509	379	0.7446	1	246	128	0	0	88	273	0	288	76	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	18	15	#N/A	#N/A	1.055408971	4.749340369	3.957783641	#N/A	#N/A	34.13333333	65.6	72.03166227
Hamilton	AQT	2621	CINCINNATI
26-U	1	524	326	0.6221	1	31	284	1	0	234	63	0	68	227	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	29	31	#N/A	#N/A	2.760736196	8.895705521	9.509202454	#N/A	#N/A	89.58990536	9.779179811	19.32515337
Hamilton	AQU	2622	CINCINNATI
26-V	1	649	445	0.6857	1	244	187	3	0	144	279	0	294	132	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	22	19	#N/A	#N/A	2.247191011	4.943820225	4.269662921	#N/A	#N/A	42.98850575	56.09195402	62.69662921
Hamilton	AQV	2623	CINCINNATI
26-W	1	518	391	0.7548	1	222	164	1	0	125	249	0	260	113	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	17	18	#N/A	#N/A	0.767263427	4.347826087	4.603580563	#N/A	#N/A	42.26804124	57.21649485	63.68286445
Hamilton	AQW	2624	CINCINNATI
26-X	1	804	490	0.6095	0	61	389	0	1	318	121	0	124	314	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	40	51	52	#N/A	#N/A	8.163265306	10.40816327	10.6122449	#N/A	#N/A	86.25277162	13.52549889	24.69387755
Hamilton	AQX	2625	CINCINNATI
26-Y	1	544	342	0.6287	0	39	291	0	0	232	72	0	74	231	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	38	37	#N/A	#N/A	3.50877193	11.11111111	10.81871345	#N/A	#N/A	88.18181818	11.81818182	21.05263158
Hamilton	AQY	2626	CINCINNATI
26-Z	1	508	397	0.7815	0	278	108	2	0	67	310	0	312	70	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	20	15	#N/A	#N/A	2.267002519	5.037783375	3.778337531	#N/A	#N/A	27.83505155	71.64948454	78.08564232
Hamilton	APL	2627	CINCINNATI
26-AA	1	595	454	0.763	0	268	179	0	0	120	315	0	304	137	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	19	13	#N/A	#N/A	1.54185022	4.185022026	2.863436123	#N/A	#N/A	40.04474273	59.95525727	69.38325991
Hamilton	APN	2628	CINCINNATI
26-BB	1	558	413	0.7401	1	209	196	1	0	127	266	0	271	130	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	20	12	#N/A	#N/A	1.452784504	4.842615012	2.905569007	#N/A	#N/A	48.15724816	51.35135135	64.40677966
Hamilton	APP	2629	CINCINNATI
26-CC	1	600	445	0.7417	1	230	203	1	0	149	270	0	276	154	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	26	15	#N/A	#N/A	2.247191011	5.842696629	3.370786517	#N/A	#N/A	46.66666667	52.87356322	60.6741573
Hamilton	APR	2630	CINCINNATI
26-DD	1	837	558	0.6667	1	158	384	5	0	312	207	0	211	309	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	39	38	#N/A	#N/A	1.792114695	6.989247312	6.810035842	#N/A	#N/A	70.0729927	28.83211679	37.09677419
Hamilton	APT	2631	CINCINNATI
26-EE	1	765	519	0.6784	2	121	379	0	0	287	175	0	178	293	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17	57	48	#N/A	#N/A	3.275529865	10.98265896	9.248554913	#N/A	#N/A	75.49800797	24.10358566	33.71868979
Hamilton	APV	2632	CINCINNATI
26-FF	1	696	462	0.6638	2	97	358	0	0	273	150	0	160	258	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	39	44	#N/A	#N/A	1.082251082	8.441558442	9.523809524	#N/A	#N/A	78.33698031	21.22538293	32.46753247
Hamilton	APX	2633	CINCINNATI
26-GG	1	649	467	0.7196	1	250	207	0	0	145	299	0	309	147	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	23	11	#N/A	#N/A	1.927194861	4.925053533	2.355460385	#N/A	#N/A	45.19650655	54.58515284	64.02569593
Hamilton	AAP	2911	CHEVIOT
1-A	1	496	366	0.7379	3	207	145	1	0	109	234	0	235	114	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	23	17	#N/A	#N/A	2.732240437	6.284153005	4.644808743	#N/A	#N/A	40.73033708	58.14606742	63.93442623
Hamilton	AAQ	2912	CHEVIOT
1-B	1	502	363	0.7231	1	225	115	2	1	86	257	0	273	75	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20	20	15	#N/A	#N/A	5.509641873	5.509641873	4.132231405	#N/A	#N/A	33.43023256	65.40697674	70.79889807
Hamilton	AAR	2913	CHEVIOT
1-C	1	489	385	0.7873	0	248	125	0	0	102	266	0	284	89	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	17	12	#N/A	#N/A	3.116883117	4.415584416	3.116883117	#N/A	#N/A	33.51206434	66.48793566	69.09090909
Hamilton	AAS	2921	CHEVIOT
2-A	1	511	377	0.7378	4	236	129	0	2	93	261	0	269	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	23	18	#N/A	#N/A	2.122015915	6.100795756	4.774535809	#N/A	#N/A	34.77088949	63.61185984	69.23076923
Hamilton	AAT	2922	CHEVIOT
2-B	1	534	412	0.7715	3	237	165	2	0	130	266	0	283	112	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	16	17	#N/A	#N/A	1.213592233	3.883495146	4.126213592	#N/A	#N/A	40.54054054	58.23095823	64.5631068
Hamilton	AAU	2923	CHEVIOT
2-C	1	424	333	0.7854	3	222	101	3	0	77	246	0	255	71	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	10	7	#N/A	#N/A	1.201201201	3.003003003	2.102102102	#N/A	#N/A	30.69908815	67.47720365	73.87387387
Hamilton	AAV	2931	CHEVIOT
3-A	1	505	340	0.6733	1	225	104	0	0	67	257	0	270	62	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	16	8	#N/A	#N/A	2.941176471	4.705882353	2.352941176	#N/A	#N/A	31.51515152	68.18181818	75.58823529
Hamilton	AAW	2932	CHEVIOT
3-B	1	365	246	0.674	1	160	82	0	0	64	176	0	178	61	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	6	7	#N/A	#N/A	1.219512195	2.43902439	2.845528455	#N/A	#N/A	33.74485597	65.8436214	71.54471545
Hamilton	AAX	2933	CHEVIOT
3-C	1	373	286	0.7668	0	193	91	0	0	75	196	0	211	69	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15	6	#N/A	#N/A	0.699300699	5.244755245	2.097902098	#N/A	#N/A	32.04225352	67.95774648	68.53146853
Hamilton	AAY	2941	CHEVIOT
4-A	1	510	418	0.8196	2	296	116	1	0	90	310	0	322	84	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	18	12	#N/A	#N/A	0.717703349	4.306220096	2.870813397	#N/A	#N/A	27.95180723	71.3253012	74.16267943
Hamilton	AAZ	2942	CHEVIOT
4-B	1	439	346	0.7882	3	207	126	1	0	96	237	0	235	98	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	13	13	#N/A	#N/A	2.601156069	3.757225434	3.757225434	#N/A	#N/A	37.38872404	61.42433234	68.49710983
Hamilton	ABA	2943	CHEVIOT
4-C	1	509	380	0.7466	0	227	144	1	0	92	259	0	271	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	29	19	#N/A	#N/A	2.105263158	7.631578947	5	#N/A	#N/A	38.70967742	61.02150538	68.15789474
Hamilton	ARI	3201	FOREST PARK
A	1	544	420	0.7721	1	117	296	0	0	240	160	0	133	255	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	20	32	#N/A	#N/A	1.428571429	4.761904762	7.619047619	#N/A	#N/A	71.49758454	28.26086957	38.0952381
Hamilton	ARJ	3202	FOREST PARK
B	1	527	425	0.8065	0	195	226	0	0	156	238	0	228	169	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	31	28	#N/A	#N/A	0.941176471	7.294117647	6.588235294	#N/A	#N/A	53.68171021	46.31828979	56
Hamilton	ARK	3203	FOREST PARK
C	1	565	430	0.7611	2	179	240	0	0	199	214	0	221	184	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	17	25	#N/A	#N/A	2.093023256	3.953488372	5.813953488	#N/A	#N/A	57.00712589	42.51781473	49.76744186
Hamilton	ARL	3204	FOREST PARK
D	1	561	406	0.7237	0	100	295	0	0	236	142	0	132	239	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	28	35	#N/A	#N/A	2.709359606	6.896551724	8.620689655	#N/A	#N/A	74.6835443	25.3164557	34.97536946
Hamilton	ARM	3205	FOREST PARK
E	1	499	393	0.7876	0	131	244	0	0	211	161	0	162	204	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18	21	27	#N/A	#N/A	4.580152672	5.34351145	6.870229008	#N/A	#N/A	65.06666667	34.93333333	40.96692112
Hamilton	ARN	3206	FOREST PARK
F	1	588	420	0.7143	1	142	269	1	0	223	167	0	171	227	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	30	22	#N/A	#N/A	1.666666667	7.142857143	5.238095238	#N/A	#N/A	65.13317191	34.38256659	39.76190476
Hamilton	ARO	3207	FOREST PARK
G	1	897	671	0.748	0	97	559	1	0	451	172	0	175	450	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	48	46	#N/A	#N/A	2.086438152	7.153502235	6.855439642	#N/A	#N/A	85.08371385	14.76407915	25.63338301
Hamilton	ARP	3208	FOREST PARK
H	1	299	229	0.7659	0	57	165	0	0	127	82	0	73	138	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	20	18	#N/A	#N/A	3.056768559	8.733624454	7.860262009	#N/A	#N/A	74.32432432	25.67567568	35.80786026
Hamilton	ARQ	3209	FOREST PARK
I	1	550	433	0.7873	2	135	284	2	0	212	194	0	163	237	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	27	33	#N/A	#N/A	2.309468822	6.23556582	7.621247113	#N/A	#N/A	67.13947991	31.91489362	44.80369515
Hamilton	ARR	3210	FOREST PARK
J	1	515	384	0.7456	0	61	306	0	0	267	89	0	87	271	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17	28	26	#N/A	#N/A	4.427083333	7.291666667	6.770833333	#N/A	#N/A	83.37874659	16.62125341	23.17708333
Hamilton	ARS	3211	FOREST PARK
K	1	635	449	0.7071	2	136	302	0	0	233	181	0	163	250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	35	36	#N/A	#N/A	2.004454343	7.795100223	8.017817372	#N/A	#N/A	68.63636364	30.90909091	40.31180401
Hamilton	ART	3212	FOREST PARK
L	1	786	571	0.7265	0	125	434	1	0	333	191	0	193	326	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	47	52	#N/A	#N/A	1.926444834	8.23117338	9.106830123	#N/A	#N/A	77.5	22.32142857	33.45008757
Hamilton	ARU	3213	FOREST PARK
M	1	641	377	0.5881	2	77	288	0	0	240	121	0	104	246	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	16	27	#N/A	#N/A	2.652519894	4.24403183	7.161803714	#N/A	#N/A	78.47411444	20.98092643	32.09549072
Hamilton	ARV	3214	FOREST PARK
N	1	587	424	0.7223	0	138	277	1	0	229	166	0	165	234	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	29	25	#N/A	#N/A	1.886792453	6.839622642	5.896226415	#N/A	#N/A	66.58653846	33.17307692	39.1509434
Hamilton	ARW	3215	FOREST PARK
O	1	561	410	0.7308	0	114	272	0	0	227	156	0	146	234	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24	27	30	#N/A	#N/A	5.853658537	6.585365854	7.317073171	#N/A	#N/A	70.46632124	29.53367876	38.04878049
Hamilton	ARX	3216	FOREST PARK
P	1	430	354	0.8233	1	73	279	0	0	223	116	0	112	227	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	15	15	#N/A	#N/A	0.282485876	4.237288136	4.237288136	#N/A	#N/A	79.0368272	20.67988669	32.76836158
Hamilton	ARY	3217	FOREST PARK
Q	1	492	384	0.7805	0	58	318	1	0	266	97	0	93	269	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	21	22	#N/A	#N/A	1.822916667	5.46875	5.729166667	#N/A	#N/A	84.35013263	15.38461538	25.26041667
Hamilton	ARZ	3218	FOREST PARK
R	1	567	333	0.5873	2	74	251	0	0	204	107	0	93	211	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	22	29	#N/A	#N/A	1.801801802	6.606606607	8.708708709	#N/A	#N/A	76.75840979	22.62996942	32.13213213
Hamilton	ASA	3219	FOREST PARK
S	1	507	412	0.8126	1	123	282	1	0	233	159	0	156	235	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	20	21	#N/A	#N/A	1.213592233	4.854368932	5.097087379	#N/A	#N/A	69.28746929	30.22113022	38.59223301
Hamilton	ASB	3220	FOREST PARK
T	1	295	195	0.661	0	34	152	0	0	120	61	0	50	131	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	14	14	#N/A	#N/A	4.615384615	7.179487179	7.179487179	#N/A	#N/A	81.72043011	18.27956989	31.28205128
Hamilton	ASC	3221	FOREST PARK
U	1	700	455	0.65	1	158	290	0	0	234	207	0	195	242	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	14	18	#N/A	#N/A	1.318681319	3.076923077	3.956043956	#N/A	#N/A	64.58797327	35.18930958	45.49450549
Hamilton	ASD	3222	FOREST PARK
V	1	472	384	0.8136	0	92	279	1	0	232	136	0	131	234	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	16	19	#N/A	#N/A	3.125	4.166666667	4.947916667	#N/A	#N/A	75	24.7311828	35.41666667
Hamilton	ASE	3223	FOREST PARK
W	1	474	371	0.7827	0	95	268	0	0	221	132	0	138	210	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	18	23	#N/A	#N/A	2.156334232	4.851752022	6.199460916	#N/A	#N/A	73.8292011	26.1707989	35.57951482
Hamilton	ASF	3224	FOREST PARK
X	1	484	270	0.5579	0	63	200	1	2	153	91	0	82	171	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	26	17	#N/A	#N/A	2.222222222	9.62962963	6.296296296	#N/A	#N/A	75.18796992	23.68421053	33.7037037
Hamilton	BJE	3401	HARRISON
A	1	565	391	0.692	1	267	110	0	0	86	278	0	283	83	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	27	25	#N/A	#N/A	3.324808184	6.905370844	6.393861893	#N/A	#N/A	29.1005291	70.63492063	71.09974425
Hamilton	BJF	3402	HARRISON
B	1	532	340	0.6391	0	223	116	0	0	97	225	0	239	87	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	18	14	#N/A	#N/A	0.294117647	5.294117647	4.117647059	#N/A	#N/A	34.21828909	65.78171091	66.17647059
Hamilton	BJG	3403	HARRISON
C	1	464	324	0.6983	3	209	108	2	0	88	224	0	225	82	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	12	17	#N/A	#N/A	0.617283951	3.703703704	5.24691358	#N/A	#N/A	33.54037267	64.9068323	69.13580247
Hamilton	BJH	3404	HARRISON
D	1	367	294	0.8011	1	221	67	0	0	46	230	0	232	47	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	18	15	#N/A	#N/A	1.700680272	6.12244898	5.102040816	#N/A	#N/A	23.183391	76.47058824	78.23129252
Hamilton	BJI	3405	HARRISON
E	1	411	288	0.7007	1	217	69	0	0	58	222	0	219	58	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	8	11	#N/A	#N/A	0.347222222	2.777777778	3.819444444	#N/A	#N/A	24.04181185	75.6097561	77.08333333
Hamilton	BJJ	3406	HARRISON
F	1	938	785	0.8369	0	565	199	0	0	153	605	0	617	141	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21	27	27	#N/A	#N/A	2.675159236	3.439490446	3.439490446	#N/A	#N/A	26.04712042	73.95287958	77.07006369
Hamilton	BJK	3407	HARRISON
G	1	955	828	0.867	2	659	159	0	0	111	686	0	678	116	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	31	34	#N/A	#N/A	0.966183575	3.743961353	4.106280193	#N/A	#N/A	19.3902439	80.36585366	82.85024155
Hamilton	BOW	3408	HARRISON
H	1	401	304	0.7581	0	213	81	4	0	74	217	0	226	60	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	13	18	#N/A	#N/A	1.973684211	4.276315789	5.921052632	#N/A	#N/A	27.18120805	71.47651007	71.38157895
Hamilton	BOX	3409	HARRISON
I	1	652	432	0.6626	0	325	100	0	0	74	342	0	344	67	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	16	21	#N/A	#N/A	1.62037037	3.703703704	4.861111111	#N/A	#N/A	23.52941176	76.47058824	79.16666667
Hamilton	AUA	4111	MT HEALTHY
1-A	1	744	555	0.746	0	186	350	0	0	284	226	0	228	280	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19	45	47	#N/A	#N/A	3.423423423	8.108108108	8.468468468	#N/A	#N/A	65.29850746	34.70149254	40.72072072
Hamilton	AUB	4112	MT HEALTHY
1-B	1	751	537	0.715	0	197	318	1	0	254	251	0	242	264	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21	32	31	#N/A	#N/A	3.910614525	5.959031657	5.772811918	#N/A	#N/A	61.62790698	38.17829457	46.74115456
Hamilton	AUC	4121	MT HEALTHY
2-A	1	1005	772	0.7682	0	412	346	0	0	264	475	0	473	268	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	33	31	#N/A	#N/A	1.813471503	4.274611399	4.015544041	#N/A	#N/A	45.64643799	54.35356201	61.52849741
Hamilton	AUE	4131	MT HEALTHY
3-A	1	1057	752	0.7114	2	421	316	1	0	243	467	0	462	249	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	42	41	#N/A	#N/A	1.595744681	5.5
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-21-05 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #32
33. Thanks for the info
By the way, exit poll precincts 54 and 57 are both suburban precincts and precinct 51 is a Cincinnati precinct.
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-22-05 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #32
34. I think I got what precinct 54 is
My best bet on what precinct 54 is in the exit poll is Evendale C Precinct. It is a Cincinnati suburb with a 86.3% white, 7.2 black and 5.4% asian population. This corresponds to the exit poll data of 45 white, 4 black and 3 asian respondents which works out to 86.5% white, 7.7% black and 5.7% asian. The average income of the exit pollers was approx. $89,000. The median income in Evendale is $91,000. The average age of the exit pollers was about 45 years old. The median age in Evendale is 43.1. The exit poll vote in precinct 54 was 39 Bush to 13 Kerry, a 75% to 25% percentage. Evendale C's actual count was 110 for Kerry, 312 for Bush. There were 432 votes cast. That works out to 72.22% for Bush and 25.46% for Kerry. Finally, the Fingerhut/Voinovich count in the exit poll was 9 Fingerhut to 41 Voinovich. That works out to 78.85% for Voinovich and 17.30% for Fingerhut. The actual count for Evendale C was 78 Fingerhut to 339 Voinovich. The percentages work out to 18.05% Fingerhut 78.47 for Voinovich.

Grandview Heights had some similar racial demographics but the other demographics and vote counts did not match as clearly as Evendale.

On to precinct 51 and 57.
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-22-05 09:09 PM
Response to Reply #34
35. Good job, Minvis!
Good job! Where did you get the population data for the precincts? Why did you choose Evendale C over Evendale D, they looked similar by vote. One interesting thing is that the exit poll weighted percentage inflated Bush's result (and deflated Kerry's by same) by two percent in all three precincts surveyed in CD1. But the same weighting inflated Voinovich by two percent. Therefore the bias that they were trying to correct for worked at cross purposes to party, hardly a ringing endorsement of the Kerry-voter-response-bias theory. It was also a slight downward adjustment for Kerry (one percent) against actual assuming Evendale C is the correct pick. Another interesting thing about these three precincts is that the weighting (36.69) of the big Kerry victory in exit poll sample 01050 was substantially below that (46.72) of 01054 (Evandale C) even though the sample sizes were equivalent 52/53. If we could identify 01054 next we would have an important key to Mitovsky's weighting algorithm.

I just received Montgomery County's canvass from the BOE. I'll start work on that one which is a good part of CD3 and part of CD8. CD3 is irrelevant because there were no interviews in that CD in the exit poll. I think we should do CD2 and CD8 next but most of those counties' canvas reports are not online. If someone could send me the text file, I'd be happy to plug it into a spreadhseet for us.
B-)
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-23-05 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #35
36. Population Data
I got the census data from this site. It does not give a breakdown by precinct, just by city or town. At least for suburban precincts, this should be sufficient because there shouldn't be too much fluctuation between precincts in suburban compared to urban areas.

http://hogan.ohio.com/ohio/census /

I think it is Evendale C mostly because Evendale D is a smaller precinct (384 registered voters) than Evendale C (522 registered voters). Also note that the 52 people surveyed in the exit poll is exactly 10% of the registered voters for that precinct.

If this 10% rule is true, then this can be another key to finding the right precinct and would explain why certain exit poll precincts have much fewer respondents. For example, exit poll precinct 57 has 28 respondents. Perhaps, that precinct will have only 275 - 300 registered voters. We'll see.
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-23-05 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. 1 thing I dont understand is how a single exit poller cant interview
Edited on Wed Feb-23-05 12:22 PM by FogerRox
at least a 100 to 200 Peeps in a day, say from 8am to 8 pm. Even 3 peeps working 4 hour shifts to get the 12 hour coverage.
20 or 30 voters being polled at one location seems obsurd to me.

Roj
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-23-05 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #37
38. You'd have to ask the pollsters
My guess, however, is that they do interview many more people than just the 30-50. You have to remember, though that they have to get the right number of people in each demographic group to be able to give an "accurate" guess of how the rest of the area will vote. They have to have the right ratio of race, gender, age, income, party ID, etc. for that area and it may take 100 interviews to get the 30-50 people who comprise the right demographic ratio.
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 04:56 PM
Response to Reply #38
113. They aren't allowed to pick and choose.
They approach one out of every N voters. N is chosen beforehand by NEP. Smaller N's require more than one person to administer, so they are rarer.

They do not decide who to approach based on race/age/etc. Every Nth person is approached. Even if they refuse to take the survey or fail to complete it, the surveyer will still skip N-1 people before approaching another person. (That's what the "refusal rate" and "completion rate" mean in the NEP report.)

Hrmm... come to think of it that might be another possible explanation for the "missing" numbers. If they had more than one surveyer at the site working either simultaneuously or tag-team, each may have reported with a different precinct code, and then before they turned the data over to the public they added together all results from all surveyors into the same entry.

However they may have decided to only do small N's in small precincts so they wouldn't have to hire more than one person.

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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #113
115. Thanks for the clarification
I wasn't sure how they decided who to ask to do the survey.
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 01:08 AM
Response to Reply #32
40. Precinct 51
I believe that precinct 51 is located in Cincinnati in the North Avondale/Paddock Hills neighborhood due to its 50/50 racial breakdown. Unfortunately, I'm not sure what those precincts are in Cincinnati.

Do you happen to know, Blue22?
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #40
44. I'll add polling places to the precincts as they arrive
Minvis, I don't yet know which one precinct 51 is, although I thought that with exit poll weighted Kerry/85% and weighted Vidovich/17% was close to CINCINNATI 13-M (Kerry/88% and Voin/18%.

I have a request in to Hamilton to send me a list of the polling places. That should help specify where the Cincinnati precincts are. Audrey Hatchett from Ohio SOS said that they will have all 11/04 election results from all precincts in Ohio in a couple of weeks in a tab delimited format on a CD-ROM for $79. That should speed up the process.

B-)
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-09-05 02:39 AM
Response to Reply #44
145. Hi Blue22. Do you have the polling place information for Cincy 4-M?
Also, could you please tell us any other precincts that used the same polling place? A sample street address for residents of each of the precincts at that polling place would be really helpful. Then we can get a sample ballot for each of the precincts (from the HC site's polling place locator).

How are you? We miss you!!

Cheers
kiwi_expat
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 12:09 PM
Response to Reply #32
41. You can pick up my NC script here....
http://cvs.sourceforge.net/viewcvs.py/uscvprogs/project... /

the file is nc_nep.pl. You'd click on the "1.1" to get the script.

Sometime later today that "1.1" will turn to a "1.2" and the code used to limit the search by congressional district will have been added.

Unfortunately, without the level of information NC provides, the OH data can't be searched quite as exactly. Note my algorithm doesn't try to match the percentages with the exit polls to determine results, it actually only disqualifies precincts based on actual numbers of voters registered. It's not an estimate -- barring errors in the NC SoS data these are "hard" results.

(P.S. you'll need to adjust the script to run it, and you'll need considerable horsepower -- mainly I'd reccomend at least 256M of RAM (and plenty of virtual memory space.))




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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-24-05 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #41
42. Thanks for the script, skids!
I'll edit it to pull the Ohio data and try it out.

Thanks.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-01-05 08:53 PM
Response to Original message
62. Thank you , THIS INDICATES THEFT, PERIOD. OMf'ingG!!!
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-02-05 02:11 AM
Response to Original message
64. Can someone please tell me how you deciphered the raw data???
I can't for the life of me make heads or tails of the stream of numbers...
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-02-05 07:44 AM
Response to Reply #64
65. Which raw data?
Which raw data are you referring to? In this thread we are essentially working with three sets: 1) actual county canvas results of the 11/2004 general election in each precinct, 2) the Mitovsky-Edison exit-poll survey results grouped into precincts, and 3) demographic characteristics of each election precinct from census data. We are trying to use the census demographic data as a bridge to cross-walk the exit-poll precincts to the actual canvas precinct results. Minvis has already identified one of the 49 precincts in the exit-polls using only population and vote result characteristics from the two different groups. We have simplified the match by concentrating on only a few congressional districts. In the case of CD1 we have three exit-poll results that are within a group of 967 voting precincts in CD1. The daunting task of matching a single exit-poll precinct to the voting precincts is simplified by eliminating voting precincts based on obvious differences with the exit-poll voting results. For instance, when trying to match an exit-poll precinct where Kerry received 85 percent of the sample to the voting precincts, we can just focus on the 30 or so precincts where Kerry received 75 to 95 percent of the vote. Then out of the thirty precincts in this group we can use other demographic characteristics to rule out other precincts. So the match becomes simpler and simpler. In the end, we will have pretty good guesses about which voting precincts and exit-poll precincts match, but we will never be 100 percent certain. Then we can start looking for differences between the poll vote and actual vote and ask how that could have happened. Minvis already matched one exit-poll and precinct. We probably don't even have to match all 49 precincts in the Ohio exit-poll because we already know the precincts where the big discrepancies occurred between what Mitovsky expected for that precinct before the election and what happened in the 'official' recorded vote. As Minvis summarized, Mitovsky was tripped up in CD1, CD2, CD8, CD9 and CD13. So we're going to focus our energies in these.
B-)
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-03-05 07:27 AM
Response to Reply #65
71. Can we get the 2000 exit poll data and vote totals by precinct?
We know that most (all?) of the precincts which were used this year by NEP were the same precincts used by VNS in 2000. Comparisons with the 2000 precinct data, if it is available, could possibly help narrow the search.

Also, are final exit poll results available by precinct? If so, I assume, they would have been massaged so they very nearly match the vote totals (making precinct identification a whole lot easier).

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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-02-05 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #64
67. If you're talking about the Exit poll data
There is documentation on the ftp site noting what information is contained in what column and what the numbers indicate for each question. You definitely need to do some tweaking to get them in the right columns in Excel, but it can be done.
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-02-05 12:05 PM
Response to Original message
68. Thank you for your excellent analysis. (nt)



"NOT ONE LINE OF SOFTWARE BETWEEN A VOTER AND A VALID ELECTION: NOT ONE, EVER AGAIN"
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-03-05 10:30 PM
Response to Original message
72. Available Excel sheet with complete Ohio election results and Exit Poll
Minvis, I have updated the Excel workbook with the official canvas report/precinct vote results for congressional district 1 with polling place addresses for all 967 precincts in CD1. In addition, a complete and cleaned up copy of the Ohio exit poll is included in this Excel workbook. What's needed is to add demographic data, specifically percent of population in polling place census track by race, gender, major age group and income levels. Demographic data is available from several places on the web by matching the address to the appropriate census file, a slightly tedious piece of work that several of us on the thread are going through. Once updated with the demographic data the user would have all the info necessary to match the three exit poll precincts with the proper election precincts via similar demographics. I will e-mail this Excel workbook to anyone who wants it.

B-)
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-04-05 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #72
73. Please PM me
I can give you my e-mail address then you can send the spreadsheet to me. Thanks for all your work.

We're going to track this all down sooner or later.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-04-05 06:58 PM
Response to Reply #72
74. Me too, please.
Please PM me and I can give you my e-mail address. Thanks!
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-04-05 09:39 PM
Response to Reply #74
75. Sorry, I'm new and don't have enough posts to e-mail you
Sorry, the site wouldn't let me e-mail you unless I got it confused. You might try sending me a note if you have enough posts and I'll send you back the spreadsheet.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-06-05 02:58 AM
Response to Reply #75
76. Sorry. I'm new too.
Edited on Sun Mar-06-05 03:41 AM by kiwi_expat
I don't have enough posts to send a (DU forum) e-mail to anyone, either. But that isn't important, because you can send me the Excel worksheet using just a regular e-mail - if I can get my e-mail address to you.

However, the problem is that I can not send my e-mail address to you using a DU forum "personal message" (PM). I have enough posts to send a PM to someone with as many posts as minvis. But I can't send a PM to you, because you don't have enough posts to receive it.

Is minvis able to send a PM to you? If so, he could forward my address to you.

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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-06-05 07:54 AM
Response to Reply #76
77. I sent a note to the administrator re: distribution of Ohio Excel workbook
Hi Kiwi_expat,

I sent a note to the administrator to see if there is another mechanism to distribute the spreadsheet with all canvass results, polling addresses and exit-poll interviews for congressional district on in Ohio.

Let me know if Minvis could be an intermediary.

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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-06-05 11:59 PM
Response to Reply #77
78. I'll e-mail both of you
from the forum with both my work and home e-mails. I can definitely be an intermediary. Sorry, I've been out of touch this whole weekend.
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-10-05 08:05 AM
Response to Reply #72
85. Tentative matched exit poll precincts
Minvis,  I mailed the Excel workbook to you with all of the
precinct and polling place information for Hamilton and
Butler.  I also added the exit poll information that
Liam_laddie received from the BOE.  Here's the tentative
matches based on your evendale find and Cincinnati 22-E.  The
Harrison C precinct doesn't look like such a good fit but
maybe you could look at the demographics.

NEP Pct Guess	Precinct No	Precinct Name
(CD/Pct)
01051	          2205	         CINCINNATI 22-E
01057	       	  3403	         HARRISON C
01054	       	  6803	         EVENDALE C

The next step should be to take a look at the logs and results
in these precincts at the BOE. 

Maybe Liam_laddie could call the counties in one of the other
CDs that had unpredicted results for Mitovsky that you listed
earlier in the thread.
B-) 
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-10-05 11:14 AM
Response to Reply #85
86. Quick correction
I'm sure you've noticed this already, but Liam_laddie's exit poll list from Hamilton County had Evendale D as the precinct where exit pollers were stationed. So, precinct 1057 should be changed to Evendale D instead of C.

I'll be e-mailing you later today with more matches. Also, I'll attach a complete Hamilton County precinct/vote total list because I believe the one you have is not complete. All the precincts that Liam_laddie got from Hamilton County are on my Excel worksheet.

I've e-mailed my contact at the Butler County BOE for any exit poll locations in Butler County. Note that Butler County is divided between Congressional Districts 1 and 2.
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-10-05 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #86
87. Thanks
I wonder why I only got a partial Hamilton list? Thanks to you and Liam for catching that.

Why would the BOE have five precincts listed for the exit poll when Mitovsky only reported three for all of CD1?
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liam_laddie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-10-05 01:14 PM
Response to Reply #87
88. exit polling Hamilton County
Blue22, minivis, others...
The letter from Edison/Mitofsky to BoE is dated Sept 24.
Their plans could have changed...I don't know if E/D actually did exit polls at all (7) listed for Ham. Cty. or how to obtain that info, or if anyone in the BoE knows.

Re: your question - in fact only three exit-polled precincts *are*
in CD 1 in Hamilton Cty: Cincinnati 22-E, Evendale D, and
Harrison C. The other four are in CD2. Do you need descriptions of the neighborhoods? About 1/3 of the area of CD1 is in Butler Cty. mainly rural but developing, and E/D may have added two up there; I'm not sure if the five you note are a combined total from Ham and Butler Cty BoE's or (?)

You may already have a detailed map of the CD's in SW Ohio,
but if not...the border between CD's 1 & 2 runs from Cin'ti.
city center at Ohio River, then NE more or less along I-71, to the Ham-Butler county line, then along the line west to the Great Miami R. then north into Butler County (west of the City of Hamilton) for 11-1/2 miles, then west to the Indiana line. This is just south of Oxford, OH.

Has anyone on the team obtained the needed exit-polled precincts in Butler, Warren or Clermont counties? I maybe could
help here...will know later tonight.
HTH and Cheers...



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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-10-05 02:00 PM
Response to Reply #88
89. 2nd Congressional District
I have contacted, via e-mail, the Butler and Clermont County BOEs to try and get a list from them. Below are my best guesses of the precincts in the 2nd Congressional district along with a short explanation.

Precincts 1, 2 and 98 - rural, probably in Brown, Adams, Scioto or Pike counties since the other counties in the 2nd Congressional District are part of Cincinnati or its suburbs. What is interesting about these precincts is that they are 50/50 between Kerry/Bush and 50/50 along Party ID lines which I don't think would be too common in rural areas. My guess is it would be in one of the larger towns in those counties.

Precinct 9 - suburban. This is most likely Sharonville 4C in Hamilton County. It is the only one of the 3 suburban precincts that has under 90% white population. Precinct 9 has 1 Hispanic, 1 Asian and 1 other respondent in the exit poll which mirrors this town's racial makeup.

Precinct 49 - suburban. This is most likely Anderson JJ in Hamilton County. It was either this or Fairfax B, but the thing that swayed it was the income breakdown. Anderson Township has a median income of roughly $80,000 and Fairfax Village has a median income around $45,000. Precinct 49 respondents definitely trended to the upper income range.

Precinct 52 and 55 - city over 50,000. This would, of course, include Cincinnati 4-M as one of the precincts. The other is probably a precinct in the city of Hamilton. Hamilton is the only city in the 2nd District, besides Cincinnati, that has a population over 50,000. I have an e-mail out to the BOE in Butler county to confirm this.

Precinct 63- suburban. This leaves Fairfax B as this precinct. Again, this is due to the income breakdown. The exit poll responders for this precinct averaged out to roughly $50,000 which is close to the $45,000 median income for this village.
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-10-05 04:00 PM
Response to Reply #88
90. Got a reply back from Clermont County
There was one precinct in Clermont County that had exit pollers. It was Bethel Village A. I'll have to see which exit poll precinct this corresponds to.
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-10-05 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #90
91. Believe it is precinct 98
Looking at the educational and income breakdown of the 3 rural precincts in the 2nd congressional district exit polls, precinct 98 corresponds the closest to Bethel Village.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-10-05 08:27 PM
Response to Reply #85
92. Congratulations minvis, Blue22, and liam_laddie on your great work!
It looks as though you are well on your way to getting the exit poll precinct data identified for all 4 SW counties.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-07-05 11:29 PM
Response to Original message
79. BIG WORRY: Exit poll precincts might all be defined as "unsafe to hack"
There is an excellent paper posted by TorchesAndPitchforks on the thread "If you had to guess how the tabulation fraud was pulled off on Nov. 2..":

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

SUMMARY

"This paper presents a simple formula that vote tabulation software can employ to steal an election undetected.

"I will show that this algorithm is guaranteed to be immune from detection under all conceivable circumstances except one: a full hand recount in a precinct that was hacked....

"Defining certain precincts as unsafe to hack will protect against the risk of a full hand recount exposing the discrepancy between the true ballot count and the results generated by the software..."

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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-08-05 12:13 AM
Response to Reply #79
80. Perhaps, but
I don't think it precludes that some of the exit poll precincts couldn't still be marked as hackable.
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-09-05 03:04 PM
Response to Original message
81. Here's the Hamilton County exit poll precincts
Thanks to liam_laddie. He got the information from the Hamilton County BOE about the precincts that NEP used in their exit polls in Hamilton County.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

My next plan is to see which precinct numbers they correspond to in the Exit Poll raw data.

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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 02:55 AM
Response to Original message
93. Figured out NEP precinct # to Ohio county, data here:
See my other reply here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

By comparing the district chart to the NEP geocode chart (in the raw dataset the PDF file
Datasets/Ohio/Documentation/Ohio Geostrata 2004.pdf
) and assuming an alphabetical sort order on the precinct numbering scheme, here are the counties each of the Ohio precincts are in. I haven't been keeping up to well, so apologies if someone already figured this out:

NEP #/District/geocode: number of surveyed voters and possible counties.
Precinct 1/ 2/5: 25 voters Adams
Precinct 2/ 2/5: 52 voters Adams
Precinct 3/ 4/4: 29 voters Allen
Precinct 5/14/2: 36 voters Ashtabula
Precinct 7/ 8/5: 45 voters Butler
Precinct 8/ 8/5: 32 voters Butler
Precinct 9/ 2/5: 53 voters Clermont
Precinct 11/11/1: 53 voters Cuyahoga
Precinct 14/10/1: 47 voters Cuyahoga
Precinct 15/11/1: 30 voters Cuyahoga
Precinct 21/10/1: 21 voters Cuyahoga
Precinct 23/14/1: 51 voters Cuyahoga
Precinct 24/10/1: 52 voters Cuyahoga
Precinct 26/12/3: 46 voters Delaware
Precinct 27/ 9/4: 50 voters Erie
Precinct 33/15/3: 48 voters Franklin
Precinct 36/15/3: 25 voters Franklin
Precinct 39/15/3: 24 voters Franklin
Precinct 39/15/: 4 voters Franklin
Precinct 41/12/3: 29 voters Franklin
Precinct 42/ 7/3: 51 voters Franklin
Precinct 47/18/3: 92 voters Guernsey
Precinct 48/18/3: 15 voters Guernsey
Precinct 49/ 2/5: 34 voters Hamilton
Precinct 51/ 1/5: 53 voters Hamilton
Precinct 52/ 2/5: 31 voters Hamilton
Precinct 54/ 1/5: 52 voters Hamilton
Precinct 55/ 2/5: 16 voters Hamilton
Precinct 57/ 1/5: 28 voters Hamilton
Precinct 63/ 2/5: 48 voters Hamilton
Precinct 67/14/2: 38 voters Lake
Precinct 72/ 9/4: 44 voters Lucas
Precinct 74/ 9/4: 67 voters Lucas
Precinct 76/17/2: 32 voters Mahoning
Precinct 78/ 6/2: 53 voters Mahoning or Munroe
Precinct 88/ 8/5: 70 voters Mercer or Miami
Precinct 91/17/2: 51 voters Portage
Precinct 94/ 5/4: 46 voters Putnam or Sandusky
Precinct 98/ 2/3: 32 voters Scioto
Precinct 100/ 5/4: 52 voters Seneca
Precinct 101/16/2: 29 voters Stark
Precinct 103/13/2: 31 voters Summit
Precinct 104/13/2: 53 voters Summit
Precinct 105/13/2: 48 voters Summit
Precinct 106/13/2: 22 voters Summit
Precinct 114/18/2: 55 voters Tuscarawas
Precinct 115/15/3: 43 voters Union
Precinct 118/16/2: 28 voters Wayne
Precinct 119/16/2: 37 voters Wayne
Precinct 120/ 5/4: 43 voters Wood or Williams

Odds are good the data is sorted by a gummed of version of BOE precinct name/numbering, whatever they used for that, (see other threads for clues) so it is a pretty good bet to make to assume the big cities with lots of precincts will occupy consecutive numbers here. Whether towns will be sorted alphabetically depends on whether they used those funky 4 digit numbers or not.



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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 08:29 AM
Response to Reply #93
94. Could this be the sequence for matching precincts with the NEP list?
I have re-sequenced the exit poll precinct names which liam_laddie obtained from the Hamilton County BOE. I sequenced them by their last letters and then matched them with your ascending Hamilton County precinct numbers:

Precinct 49 2/5 = 6102 Fairfax B
Precinct 51 1/5 = Harrison C
Precinct 52 2/5 = 4943 Sharonville 4-C
Precinct 54 1/5 = Evendale D
Precinct 55 2/5 = 2205 Cincinnati 22-E
Precinct 57 1/5 = Anderson JJ
Precinct 63 2/5 = Cincinnati 4-M


The matches appear to be, at least, plausible. I compared a detailed Hamilton County map with the CD boundaries shown in post 51, above. All of the "2/5" precincts could be in CD 2 and all of the "1/5" precincts could be in CD 1.

Fingers crossed !

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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 09:03 AM
Response to Reply #93
95. Great work Skids! Match_list so far
Here's a simple table for those keeping track.  There are
additional ones that Minvis is on to that have not been added
yet.

 NEP_Prct 	 CD 	 County 		 Match_Prct 
 001 		 02 	Adams		
 002 		 02 	Adams		
 003 		 04 	Allen		
 005 		 14 	Ashtabula		
 007 		 08 	Butler		
 008 		 08 	Butler		
 009 		 02 	Clermont		Bethel_Village_A
 011 		 11 	Cuyahoga		
 014 		 10 	Cuyahoga		
 015 		 11 	Cuyahoga		
 021 		 10 	Cuyahoga		
 023 		 14 	Cuyahoga		
 024 		 10 	Cuyahoga		
 026 		 12 	Deleware		
 027 		 09 	Erie		
 033 		 15 	Franklin		
 036 		 15 	Franklin		
 039 		 15 	Franklin		
 041 		 12 	Franklin		
 042 		 07 	Franklin		
 047 		 18 	Guernsey		
 048 		 18 	Guernsey		
 049 		 02 	Hamilton		
 051 		 01 	Hamilton		CINCINNATI_22-E
 052 		 02 	Hamilton		
 054 		 01 	Hamilton		EVENDALE_D
 055 		 02 	Hamilton		
 057 		 01 	Hamilton		HARRISON_C
 063 		 02 	Hamilton		
 067 		 14 	Lake		
 072 		 09 	Lucas		
 074 		 09 	Lucas		
 076 		 17 	Mahoning		
 078 		 06 	Mahoning_or_Munroe		
 088 		 08 	Mercer_or_Miami		
 091 		 17 	Portage		
 094 		 05 	Putnam_or_Sandusky		
 098 		 02 	Scioto		
 100 		 05 	Seneca		
 101 		 16 	Stark		
 103 		 13 	Summit		
 104 		 13 	Summit		
 105 		 13 	Summit		
 106 		 13 	Summit		
 114 		 18 	Tuscarawas		
 115 		 15 	Union		
 118 		 16 	Wayne		
 119 		 16 	Wayne		
 120 		 05 	Wood_or_Willians		
B-) 
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 01:44 PM
Response to Reply #95
96. I'm really disappointed that my sequence (see 94, above) didn't match
Are you sure that CINCINNATI_22-E is in CD1 ? Rats.
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 02:35 PM
Response to Reply #96
97. All our matches are uncertain, but the first four look good
Cincinnati 22-E is in CD1. All of its recorded votes for Congress were for candidates in CD1. Also, Kerry's actual percent of the recorded vote was 85 percent, close to exit precinct 051: raw Kerry: 87 percent and Mitovsky weighted it at 85 percent. You and Minvis and Skids and Liam_laddie have really accelerated the matching. Let's keep getting the exit poll lists out of the counties.
B-)
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liam_laddie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 03:00 PM
Response to Reply #96
98. Cin'ti. 22-E, CD 1
Yep, it's certainly in CD 1. In the Northside neighborhood, a very
diverse place...lots of younger straights and gays, blacks..a real
vital melting pot. Would explain the high Dem vote.
I don't expect to have answers about Clermont and Warren until
mid-next week. It looks as if you've got some (incomplete?) data from Butler and Clermont. I'll be hearing from the Warren contact
by Monday night, I'm sure. Have any other areas of Ohio been
analyzed yet? Any trends?
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 03:21 PM
Response to Reply #98
100. "Skids has done an amazing job...."
Thanks, Liam and Blue22, for verifying that Cin'ti. 22-E is indeed in CD 1.

I posted this to Liam on the "...SOUTH WEST Ohio?" thread:


45. Skids has done an amazing job of identifying counties with exit polls.

See his post 93....

Unfortunately Warren County does not appear to have an exit poll precinct.

Liam, how would you like to get stuck into trying to get exit poll precincts from some of the other counties on Skids' list?

Cheers!





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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 03:46 PM
Response to Reply #95
102. It looks as though Skids' hunch was correct: the sequence is by city name

Precinct 49 2/5 = Anderson JJ
Precinct 51 1/5 = 2205 Cincinnati 22-E
Precinct 52 2/5 = Cincinnati 4-M
Precinct 54 1/5 = Evendale
Precinct 55 2/5 = 6102 Fairfax B
Precinct 57 1/5 = Harrison C
Precinct 63 2/5 = 4943 Sharonville 4-C

CORRECT ?!!!!


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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 03:53 PM
Response to Reply #102
104. I'm not so sure
The problem is precincts 51, 52 and 55 are all cities with populations of 50,000 to 500,000. That fits precincts 51 and 52 just fine since that is Cincinnati. Precinct 55, which we have as Fairfax has a population under 2,000.

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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 04:03 PM
Response to Reply #104
105. Fairfax is in an area bounded on three sides by Cincinnati.
Edited on Sat Mar-12-05 04:13 PM by kiwi_expat
It must be highly urban.
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 03:13 PM
Response to Reply #93
99. Suggested Priority List for Decoding remaining precincts
In post #50 on this thread, I explained how we could use
Mitovsky's own suprise at the results in certain precincts as
a way to focus on those that need to be examined.  That post
showed which CDs to look at first.  Since matching has
accelerated with techniques/methodologies of Minvis, Skids,
Liam_laddie and kiwi_expat we should probably prioritize which
precincts and counties to focus on.  The same methodology is
used to identify those precincts where Mitovsky had to give
Bush added votes from what he expected when he selected the
precinct before the election.  The table below shows which
ones to concentrate on first.  This table shows those
precincts on top where Bush had the greatest gains after
weighting (Bush_Gain).  So these counties should be contacted
first for their exit poll precincts.  It appears that we
already have one suspicious precinct, Harrison C, and Minvis
has a good bead on three other important precincts in Hamilton
county that gave Bush surprisingly large vote totals on their
canvas.

 NEP# 	 CD 	 County Match_Prct Sample 	 WGT 	 Bush_Gain 
 048 	 18 	Guernsey	#N/A	 15 	 38.55 	 15.63 
 118 	 16 	Wayne	#N/A	 28 	 44.68 	 12.33 
 055 	 02 	Hamilton	#N/A	 16 	 37.56 	 11.58 
 021 	 10 	Cuyahoga	#N/A	 21 	 39.08 	 11.49 
 106 	 13 	Summit	#N/A	 22 	 43.96 	 10.85 
 098 	 02 	Scioto	#N/A	 32 	 45.95 	 10.47 
 003 	 04 	Allen	#N/A	 29 	 43.52 	 9.67 
 039 	 15 	Franklin	#N/A	 24 	 42.15 	 9.55 
 057 	 01 	Hamilton	HARRISON_C 28 	 42.95 	 9.48 
 036 	 15 	Franklin	#N/A	 25 	 39.33 	 8.87 
 101 	 16 	Stark	#N/A	 29 	 40.22 	 8.17 
 001 	 02 	Adams	#N/A	 25 	 42.54 	 8.00 
 041 	 12 	Franklin	#N/A	 29 	 39.79 	 8.00 
 049 	 02 	Hamilton	#N/A	 34 	 41.67 	 7.65 
 103 	 13 	Summit	#N/A	 31 	 40.56 	 6.79 
 008 	 08 	Butler	#N/A	 32 	 46.06 	 6.77 
 052 	 02 	Hamilton	#N/A	 31 	 37.13 	 4.45 
 076 	 17 	Mahoning	#N/A	 32 	 39.37 	 3.52 
 005 	 14 	Ashtabula	#N/A	 36 	 42.14 	 3.48 
 007 	 08 	Butler	#N/A	 45 	 44.60 	 3.22 
 067 	 14 	Lake	#N/A	 38 	 40.32 	 2.77 
 119 	 16 	Wayne	#N/A	 37 	 39.08 	 2.47 
 094 	 05 	Put_or_Sand	#N/A	 46 	 45.05 	 0.47 
 011 	 11 	Cuyahoga	#N/A	 53 	 40.56 	 0.42 
 015 	 11 	Cuyahoga	#N/A	 30 	 41.47 	 0.36 
 063 	 02 	Hamilton	#N/A	 48 	 44.83 	 (0.03)
 105 	 13 	Summit	#N/A	 48 	 41.42 	 (0.11)
 120 	 05 	Wood_or_Wlms	#N/A	 43 	 40.73 	 (0.43)
 072 	 09 	Lucas	#N/A	 44 	 37.96 	 (0.47)
 033 	 15 	Franklin	#N/A	 48 	 42.44 	 (0.98)
 091 	 17 	Portage	#N/A	 51 	 42.59 	 (1.06)
 026 	 12 	Deleware	#N/A	 46 	 42.20 	 (1.12)
 115 	 15 	Union	#N/A	 43 	 38.36 	 (1.38)
 051 	 01 	Hamilton	CINCINNATI_22-E	 53 	 36.69 	 (1.38)
 014 	 10 	Cuyahoga	#N/A	 47 	 38.60 	 (1.74)
 042 	 07 	Franklin	#N/A	 51 	 39.99 	 (1.84)
 024 	 10 	Cuyahoga	#N/A	 52 	 45.27 	 (1.90)
 104 	 13 	Summit	#N/A	 53 	 40.87 	 (2.15)
 100 	 05 	Seneca	#N/A	 52 	 46.75 	 (2.17)
 078 	 06 	Mahon_or_Munr	#N/A	 53 	 43.62 	 (2.56)
 027 	 09 	Erie	#N/A	 50 	 43.26 	 (2.87)
 023 	 14 	Cuyahoga	#N/A	 51 	 40.50 	 (3.00)
 054 	 01 	Hamilton	EVENDALE_D	 52 	 46.72 	 (3.07)
 002 	 02 	Adams	#N/A	 52 	 42.39 	 (3.52)
 009 	 02 	Clermont	Bethel_Village_A	 53 	 44.26 	 (3.62)
 074 	 09 	Lucas	#N/A	 67 	 37.64 	 (4.65)
 088 	 08 	Mercer_or_Miami	#N/A	 70 	 38.08 	 (5.25)
 114 	 18 	Tuscarawas	#N/A	 55 	 42.72 	 (5.84)
 047 	 18 	Guernsey	#N/A	 92 	 44.73 	 (24.19)
				 2,042 	 2,040.91 	 101.12 
B-) 
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 03:41 PM
Response to Reply #99
101. Precinct 9 seems fishy
I just looked at the demographics for Bethel Village. The link is below.

http://www.osuedc.org/SF3/index.php?fips=39025&

There was 1 Hispanic, 1 Asian and 1 other polled for a population that only has 5 Asians total in the village. That's about .2% of the total population of Bethel Village. It seems odd that they would get an exit poll from a demographic group that small.
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #101
103. Bethel Village: Fishy, yes, important, probably not
Exit poll precinct 009 is a slight Kerry gain in weighting. Bush had eighteen precincts with greater weighting in his favor. I don't think we'd even expect that the vote count manipulation took place in a Kerry precinct that had to be weighted in his favor. Although other forms of voter suppression could be in play in the Kerry weight-gain precincts.


B-)
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 05:52 PM
Response to Reply #93
107. Precinct 120 is probably Williams

"If there were any "NEP precincts in Wood County, I am not aware of them. -
Allen R. Baldwin, Chair
WOOD COUNTY DEMOCRATIC PARTY
POB 707
455 S. Main St.
Bowling Green OH 43402-0707
T-419.352.5299
F-419.353.5372
Cell-419.262.6499
Email: wooddems@wcnet.org "


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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 04:06 PM
Response to Original message
106. The missing numbers.
Edited on Sat Mar-12-05 04:08 PM by skids
Just to point out an obvious question: Why are some precinct numbers "missing." Why aren't the numbers monotonic from 1 to the top number?

One clue might be those extra precincts that NEP called asking for vote results from Hamilton County. What were they up to? Did they have a backup pollster sitting in a car counting only races/ages/sex of people leaving? Were the precincts used to compare to polled precincts to detect abberant results and discard results if they were too far off from a similar precinct? Were results from similar precincts used in helping to determine the final weighting?

Just food for thought.

(EDIT: Additionally, if those extra precincts in Hamilton do correspond to missing numbers in the precinct numbering, that could be a further clue to the within-county ordering.)

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liam_laddie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-14-05 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #106
121. missng precinct numbers?
Per skids' post of Mar 12 -
In Hamilton County, I can't suggest why 50, 53 and 56 are missing, but 58-62 (five sequential missing) could be the
five which were selected for post-poll-closing vote totals.
Don't have access here to a county precinct map, but could
try to locate those five in CD1 or CD2, if it would help.
Could check a map on Wed.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-15-05 12:11 AM
Response to Reply #121
122. Almost an exact sequence. Almost.
Edited on Tue Mar-15-05 12:14 AM by kiwi_expat
If we accept that the matches are in city name (and alpha code within city) sequence, we have:

Precinct 49 2/5 = Anderson JJ
Precinct 50
Precinct 51 1/5 = 2205 Cincinnati 22-E
Precinct 52 2/5 = Cincinnati 4-M
Precinct 53
Precinct 54 1/5 = Evendale D
Precinct 55 2/5 = 6102 Fairfax B
Precinct 56
Precinct 57 1/5 = Harrison C
Precinct 58
Precinct 59
Precinct 60
Precinct 61
Precinct 62
Precinct 63 2/5 = 4943 Sharonville 4-C
.....

The five additional precincts which were selected for post-poll-closing vote totals are:
-0804 Cincinnati 8-D
-1510 Cincinnati 15-J
-7903 Lockland C
-3803 Madeira C
-8307 Miami Township G

Using a city name sequence, the additional two Cincinnati precincts could be NEP precincts 50 and 53. Lockland, Maderia, and Miami could fit somewhere between NEP precincts 57 and 63.

The problem is the sequence within city. If we stick with the alpha code, Cincinnati 8-D fits nicely as NEP precinct 50. But Cincinnati 15-J should not follow Cincinnati 4-M.

This is driving me crazy. I have tried every combination of city name and/or alpha code and/or full 4 digit code that I can think of. Nothing works exactly, that I can see.

The primary constraint is that Cincinnati 22-E, Evendale and Harrison have to be NEP precincts 51, 54 and 57, in SOME sequence - because those are the only CD1 NEP precincts for the original 7 exit polls.


Help.
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-15-05 12:58 AM
Response to Reply #122
123. I think I have it for you.
50 is Cincinnati 15J
51 is of course Cincinnati 22E
52 is Cincinnati 4M
53 is Cincinnati 8D

If you look at the first number in each it goes 1,2,4,8. That's in order. If you look at the full number, it of course is not in order.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-15-05 02:53 AM
Response to Reply #123
124. THANK YOU, MINVIS !!!
Edited on Tue Mar-15-05 03:40 AM by kiwi_expat
You must be correct. The city name - and the number and letter following it - must all be ONE alphanumeric field for the sort.

I was blinded by the fact that the number and letter were converted to a 4 digit number (shown before the name) in many cases. E.g., 8-D was converted to 0804.

This means that we can, indeed, immediately assign NEP precinct numbers for each set of county exit poll precincts we get.

Hallelujah!

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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-15-05 07:26 AM
Response to Reply #123
125. Whoa. Nice work Minvis and Kiwi
Nice job.
B-)
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-15-05 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #123
126. Perfect.

Good eye. That means some of the 5 missing ones after hamilton are likely "extra" precincts from the next county.

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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 07:52 PM
Response to Original message
108. Here's the latest matches for CD's 1 & 2
At least as far as I can tell.

Precinct 1 2/5 = Unknown (Adams County)
Precinct 2 2/5 = Unknown (Adams County)
Precinct 9 2/5 = Bethel Village A
Precinct 49 2/5 = Anderson JJ
Precinct 51 1/5 = Cincinnati 22-E
Precinct 52 2/5 = Cincinnati 4-M
Precinct 54 1/5 = Evendale D
Precinct 55 2/5 = Fairfax B
Precinct 57 1/5 = Harrison C
Precinct 63 2/5 = Sharonville 4-C
Precinct 98 2/5 = Unknown (Scioto County)

Blue 22, do you need the "actual" precinct vote counts for Bethel Village A? I can e-mail it to you if you'd like.


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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #108
109. We'll need actual and other info for further investigation
Minvis, That would be great. I'm also putting together a list of items for the team's consideration that we will need in the next phase, the actual precinct specific citizens' recanvas. I'll try to get a draft posted today so folks can review/revise.
B-)
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 11:45 AM
Response to Reply #108
110. Updated/revised priority list--We are on the right track
I've added the additional matches and a new prioritization
approach.  No matter which way we look at it the southwest
corner is a good place to be.  Below is a revised precinct
list showing how the Mitovsky weighting affected his poll
results.  This list is sorted by the percentage gain that
Mitovsky gave Bush after all weighting.  Overall, Bush's
percentage of the raw survey was 45.3 and of the weighted
survey was 50.2, or a gain of 5%.  Interestingly, Mitovsky had
to weight every single precinct (except one) in Bush's favor
in order to match the recorded vote.  Nevertheless, some
precincts were weighted far more than others.  For instance,
Mitovsky had to give Bush 7.7 percent more votes in Butler 007
and Summit 105, precincts Bush won handily. We already have
three matches from this list and will have Butler on Monday.  
Further, the top ten gains for Bush were in a relatively few
counties: Hamilton, Butler, Summit, Cuyahoga, Franklin, Scioto
and Mahonning so our follow-up investigation is simplified.

 NEP# 	 CD 	 County 		 Match_Prct 	 Sample 	 WGT 	 Bush_Gain% 
 007 	 08 	Butler		Unmatched	 45 	 44.60 	7.7%
 105 	 13 	Summit		Unmatched	 48 	 41.42 	7.7%
 052 	 02 	Hamilton		Cinncinnati_4-M	 31 	 37.13 	6.6%
 103 	 13 	Summit		Unmatched	 31 	 40.56 	6.1%
 049 	 02 	Hamilton		Anderson_JJ	 34 	 41.67 	5.9%
 021 	 10 	Cuyahoga		Unmatched	 21 	 39.08 	5.2%
 041 	 12 	Franklin		Unmatched	 29 	 39.79 	5.1%
 063 	 02 	Hamilton		Sharonville_4-C	 48 	 44.83 	4.8%
 098 	 02 	Scioto		Unmatched	 32 	 45.95 	4.8%
 078 	 06 	Mahon_or_Munr	Unmatched	 53 	 43.62 	4.7%
 047 	 18 	Guernsey		Unmatched	 92 	 44.73 	4.5%
 091 	 17 	Portage		Unmatched	 51 	 42.59 	4.5%
 104 	 13 	Summit		Unmatched	 53 	 40.87 	4.2%
 088 	 08 	Mercer_or_Miami	Unmatched	 70 	 38.08 	4.2%
 119 	 16 	Wayne		Unmatched	 37 	 39.08 	4.2%
 024 	 10 	Cuyahoga		Unmatched	 52 	 45.27 	4.1%
 042 	 07 	Franklin		Unmatched	 51 	 39.99 	4.0%
 067 	 14 	Lake		Unmatched	 38 	 40.32 	4.0%
 033 	 15 	Franklin		Unmatched	 48 	 42.44 	4.0%
 048 	 18 	Guernsey		Unmatched	 15 	 38.55 	3.9%
 072 	 09 	Lucas		Unmatched	 44 	 37.96 	3.8%
 026 	 12 	Deleware		Unmatched	 46 	 42.20 	3.8%
 005 	 14 	Ashtabula	Unmatched	 36 	 42.14 	3.8%
 036 	 15 	Franklin		Unmatched	 25 	 39.33 	3.6%
 115 	 15 	Union		Unmatched	 43 	 38.36 	3.4%
 009 	 02 	Clermont		Bethel_Village_A	 53 	 44.26 	3.4%
 011 	 11 	Cuyahoga		Unmatched	 53 	 40.56 	3.4%
 027 	 09 	Erie		Unmatched	 50 	 43.26 	3.3%
 076 	 17 	Mahoning		Unmatched	 32 	 39.37 	3.1%
 002 	 02 	Adams		Unmatched	 52 	 42.39 	3.0%
 101 	 16 	Stark		Unmatched	 29 	 40.22 	3.0%
 039 	 15 	Franklin		Unmatched	 24 	 42.15 	2.9%
 014 	 10 	Cuyahoga		Unmatched	 47 	 38.60 	2.9%
 003 	 04 	Allen		Unmatched	 29 	 43.52 	2.7%
 094 	 05 	Put_or_Sand	Unmatched	 46 	 45.05 	2.6%
 118 	 16 	Wayne		Unmatched	 28 	 44.68 	2.3%
 057 	 01 	Hamilton		Harrison_C	 28 	 42.95 	2.2%
 055 	 02 	Hamilton		Farifax_B	 16 	 37.56 	2.1%
 114 	 18 	Tuscarawas	Unmatched	 55 	 42.72 	2.0%
 106 	 13 	Summit		Unmatched	 22 	 43.96 	2.0%
 054 	 01 	Hamilton		Evendale_D	 52 	 46.72 	1.9%
 074 	 09 	Lucas		Unmatched	 67 	 37.64 	1.6%
 051 	 01 	Hamilton		Cinncinnati_22-E	 53 	 36.69 	1.3%
 023 	 14 	Cuyahoga		Unmatched	 51 	 40.50 	1.2%
 001 	 02 	Adams		Unmatched	 25 	 42.54 	0.7%
 008 	 08 	Butler		Unmatched	 32 	 46.06 	0.4%
 100 	 05 	Seneca		Unmatched	 52 	 46.75 	0.3%
 120 	 05 	Williams		Unmatched	 43 	 40.73 	0.0%
 015 	 11 	Cuyahoga		Unmatched	 30 	 41.47 	-0.1%
					 2,042 	 2,041 	5.0%
B-) 
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-23-05 07:15 AM
Response to Reply #110
137. Maybe Anderson is the first place we should canvas in Hamilton County
Using Blue22's idea of checking Bush gains and Bush-Kerry spreads in each precinct, I looked at the 7 NEP precincts in Hamilton County to find the increased/decreased spreads for each (see below).

The precinct with the 2nd greatest increased/decreased spread is Anderson. (The raw spread = 12. The wgt spread = 19. Difference = 7.)

The precinct with the greatest increased/decreased spread is Cincinnati 22-E. But virtually all of the respondent records in the precinct have been down-weighted. If the data was weighted by 0.76 before any "final" manipulation, the pre-final weighted Kerry would be 35 and the weighted Bush would be 4.619. The difference between 35 and 31.285 is only 4, not 11 (see below).

(All precincts with large samples have been down-weighted. And precincts with small samples have been up-weighted. I am sure there must be a straight-forward way to remove this confounding factor.)

HAMILTON COUNTY NEP PRECINCTS - INCREASED/DECREASED SPREADS:

Precinct 49 (Anderson JJ) increased spread = 7
raw Kerry 11, raw Bush 23, wgt Kerry 11.021, wgt Bush 30.65

Precinct 51 (2205 Cincinnati 22-E) decreased spread = 11
raw Kerry 46, raw Bush 6, wgt Kerry 31.285, wgt Bush 4.619

Precinct 52 (Cincinnati 4-M) decreased spread = 2.8
raw Kerry 21, raw Bush 10, wgt Kerry 22.6, wgt Bush 14.4

Precinct 54 (Evendale) decreased spread = 1
raw Kerry 13, raw Bush 39, wgt Kerry 10.792, wgt Bush 35.929

Precinct 55 (Fairfax B) increased spread = 1.5
raw Kerry 8, raw Bush 8, wgt Kerry 17.977, wgt Bush 19.583

Precinct 57 (Harrison C) increased spread = 4
raw Kerry 12, raw Bush 16, wgt Kerry 17.475, wgt Bush 25.475

Precinct 63 (Sharonville 4-C) increased spread = 3
raw Kerry 14, raw Bush 33, wgt Kerry 10.924, wgt Bush 32.974








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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-23-05 09:10 AM
Response to Reply #137
138. Might the sample-adjustment weight be = 40/sample ?
"I am sure there must be a straight-forward way to remove this confounding factor..."

The target sample size appears to be 40. All precincts with samples of 43, or greater, are down-weighted. All precincts with samples of 37, or less, are up-weighted.

Might the sample-adjustment weight be = 40/sample ?

(Coincidentally, that turns out to be almost the exact adjustment-weight that I used in my example with precinct 51.)




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liam_laddie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-23-05 10:39 AM
Response to Reply #137
139. Anderson JJ, etc
Team - you may already have this data, but if not...

The totals for: registered voters, % turnout, votes, etc. are at this URL. <http://www.hamilton-co.org/BOE/archiveresults.asp >
Excel spreadsheet - "Nov 2, 2004 results"

Anderson JJ is line 630 - state precinct code "AZN" - Ham Cty code 5636 (Anderson Twp. is area #56 on the county map) -
JJ is #36 in precinct coding (A-Z is 01-26, AA-ZZ is 27-52, etc)

Six of the twelve E/M precincts had turnouts of 82% or greater.
All six were heavily Bush; 60/40 or above. "Curious" in any way? Example -Anderson JJ. Reg voters - 557, turnout -483 (86.7%),
B/C - 344, K/E - 131, other - 2. Total pres. votes are six less than
turnout - undervotes?

Here're the line numbers for the (12) precincts:
75, 127, 214, 272, 437, 465, 560, 630, 721, 780, 880, 899

As of yesterday, I have contact data for the ranking Dem on eight
of the larger counties' BofE's. Getting callbacks is slow, but if
I get any info on polled precincts, I'll post it. Franklin
(Columbus) did not have the info, but we had a good conversation about elections, machines, etc.





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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-23-05 08:13 PM
Response to Reply #110
140. Cincy-4M and Sharonville have biggest changes - using sample-adj raw
Using Sample-adjusted weights (= 40/sample size) on the raw Kerry/Bush Hamilton County NEP precinct totals, and then comparing that spread with the "Final" weighted spread, Cincy-4M and Sharonville have the biggest changes in spread.

Comparing Sample-adjusted Raw spread with Final weighted spread:

Precinct 49 (Anderson JJ) increased spread = 5
raw Kerry 11, raw Bush 23, wgt Kerry 11.021, wgt Bush 30.65
sample-adj raw Kerry 12.941, sample-adj raw Bush 27.058

Precinct 51 (2205 Cincinnati 22-E) decreased spread = 3
raw Kerry 46, raw Bush 6, wgt Kerry 31.285, wgt Bush 4.619
sample-adj raw Kerry 34.716, sample-adj raw Bush 4.528

Precinct 52 (Cincinnati 4-M) decreased spread = 6
raw Kerry 21, raw Bush 10, wgt Kerry 22.6, wgt Bush 14.4
sample-adj raw Kerry 27.096, sample-adj raw Bush 12.903

Precinct 54 (Evendale) decreased spread = 5
raw Kerry 13, raw Bush 39, wgt Kerry 10.792, wgt Bush 35.929
sample-adj raw Kerry 10, sample-adj raw Bush 30

Precinct 55 (Fairfax B) increased spread = 1.5
raw Kerry 8, raw Bush 8, wgt Kerry 17.977, wgt Bush 19.583
sample-adj raw Kerry 20, sample-adj raw Bush 20

Precinct 57 (Harrison C) increased spread = 2
raw Kerry 12, raw Bush 16, wgt Kerry 17.475, wgt Bush 25.475
sample-adj raw Kerry 17.142, sample-adj raw Bush 22.857

Precinct 63 (Sharonville 4-C) increased spread = 6
raw Kerry 14, raw Bush 33, wgt Kerry 10.924, wgt Bush 32.974
sample-adj raw Kerry 11.666, sample-adj raw Bush 27.5
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-25-05 12:15 AM
Response to Reply #110
141. Sorry for missing the obvious....
Edited on Fri Mar-25-05 12:17 AM by kiwi_expat
Precinct sample-adj weight should probably be = precinct WGT/sample!

Would anyone ;-)like to do a spreadsheet for Ohio precincts, showing:

"raw Kerry" x WGT/sample, "raw Bush" x WGT/sample, and their spread;
"wgtd Kerry", "wgtd Bush", and their spread;
and the net (signed difference) of the spreads?

Thanks in advance!!



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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-25-05 10:08 PM
Response to Reply #141
143. Please cancel the request for another spreadsheet. :-)
Edited on Fri Mar-25-05 10:11 PM by kiwi_expat
The priority table in #110 is perfect!

I hadn't noticed that Blue22 had changed from absolute Bush gain, message #99, to percent Bush gain, message #110. (Percent Bush gain = Weighted Bush/WGT - Raw Bush/sample.) The percent spread = 2 x percent Bush gain.

I was groping my way to the same solution. My "net (signed difference) of the spreads" still needed to be divided by WGT to provide a percent spread.


I am happy that Anderson, Cinci 4-M and Sharonville are indeed the Hamilton County precincts most worthy of closer inspection/recounts.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-08-05 02:42 AM
Response to Reply #110
144. NEP #52 is even more of an anomaly than we thought
Edited on Fri Apr-08-05 03:14 AM by kiwi_expat
NEP Precinct 52, which we are pretty sure is Cincy 4-M, has twice as many Kerry respondents as Bush respondents. Even the final weighted version is still Kerry 22 to Bush 14.

But the actual vote was Kerry 211 Bush 312. See Cincy 4-M in
http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/inputdata/Electionsresul...

If Mitofsky was trying to match the actual Kerry 211 Bush 312 ratio, he didn't do too well


(I initially panicked and thought that we might have mis-identified #52. But in checking the actual totals, I see that the only NEP precinct with a Kerry lead is Cincy 22-E, which must be #51.)

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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 01:18 PM
Response to Original message
111. Shortly we'll move to final phase: Much more info needed
To date, we have pursued discrepancies between the recorded vote and the exit poll as a sort of water-witch. Well, the stick is starting to point to a relatively few locations where we might find water if we dug a little deeper. Lets start figuring out what we want for our citizens recanvas of these precincts. Id propose that we construct a profile of each precinct with as much factual and historical information as we can find. Lets start with the 10-15 precincts (only 11 counties) with the greatest percentage discrepancy between the Bush raw survey vote and his weighted vote (See Post #110 on this thread ). Heres our question: Comparing the exit poll group and the actual voting group, what factors could have accounted for the large difference in voting percentages, e.g., random variation, characteristics of the respondents/survey bias, flaws in vote tabulation procedures? Heres a suggested approach for developing the facts and conducting the analysis in preparation for acting or not.


Election Site Structure And Voting Method For the November 2004 General Election ( Three methods used to collect this information: 1) FOIL county BOE, 2) FOIL state BOE/SOS, 3) individual queries/fact gathering by team members (maybe BBV has some of this from their FOIL?). Having the same information from multiple sources allows for validation and sets up discrepancy checking.)

1. NEP precinct name, number address.
2. Other precincts at the same address.
3. Voting equipment used (mfg, hardware, software).
4. Manufacturer of equipment
5. Is a physical record of the ballot available for review?
6. Number of machines used at this location?
7. Have the machines been used since 11/04 or cleared of operating totals?
8. Is there a chain of custody with the devices?
9. What is the service history on these machines? Are there any service records available? Who was the service technician? When was it serviced?
10. How were vote results communicated to BOE/SOS on election night? How were these machines networked at this location, dial-in locations, telephoned in results?
11. What were the types of election complaints for this county filed from the online sources?
12. Any published election complaints for this particular precinct?
13. Any reports of problems in this county in the local media?
14. General background on voting at this location from the county political party chairs and local board of election chair and staff.
15. Names and addresses of all poll workers and party observers who worked at this site on election day. Used for a follow-up telephone survey about how voting went that day.
16. Was this precinct used in the December recount? If so, what was the result and was a full canvas used?
17. Was this precinct investigated by Kerry or another presidential campaign? Findings?
18. Are the 2004 general election voter logs available? If so, obtain a copy under FOIL and enter the complete registration list and voter lists into a database for follow-up.
19. If an individual recount of a single election district is possible, then recount the specific precinct.
20. Were the boundaries of this precinct changed prior to 2004?
21. Basic demographics of voting age population: total population, Age 18-29, 30-49, 50-64, 65+, gender, race (white, African-American, Hispanic, Oriental, other), income (Under $15,000, $15,000 - $29,999, $30,000 - $49,999, $50,000 - $74,999, $75,000 - $99,999, $100,000 - $149,999, $150,000 - $199,999, $200,000 or more), religion (protestant/other Christian, Catholic, Jewish, Other, None), education (Did not complete high school, High school graduate, Some college or associate degree, College graduate, Postgraduate study), marital status, size of place (City over 500,000, City 50,000 499,999, Suburbs: City 10,000 49,999, Rural <10,000)


The Vote (We have most of this already from official canvas reports. I will put this in a spreadsheet if folks can get me the ounty canvas reports.)

22. Number of ballots
23. Number of absentee ballots
24. Vote in Presidential, Senate and Congressional races and Issue 1 (and percentages)
25. Overvotes, undervotes for each.
26. Registered voters and turnout
27. Party registration (We have this for Hamilton County)
28. Comparison of this data with prior presidential elections (2000 probably sufficient)
29. Comparison of this data with other precincts at the same location.


The Exit Poll (We have all of this already and just need to put it into tables for comparison. I will do this.)

30. Raw survey responses Vote for President, Senate and Congress and Issue #1 (and percentages including undervote)
31. Weighted Vote for President, Senate and Congress and Issue #1 (and percentages including undervote)
32. Bush gains from weighting in raw survey responses and percentage.
33. Basic demographics of voting age population: Age 18-29, 30-49, 50-64, 65+, gender, race (white, African-American, Hispanic, Oriental, other), income (Under $15,000, $15,000 - $29,999, $30,000 - $49,999, $50,000 - $74,999, $75,000 - $99,999, $100,000 - $149,999, $150,000 - $199,999, $200,000 or more), religion (protestant/other Christian, Catholic, Jewish, Other, None), education (Did not complete high school, High school graduate, Some college or associate degree, College graduate, Postgraduate study), marital status, size of place (City over 500,000, City 50,000 499,999, Suburbs: City 10,000 49,999, Rural <10,000)

B-)
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liam_laddie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #111
112. researching more Ohio counties
This note replies to several postings upthread...

#100 - re: exit-polled precincts in other counties - I'm willing to try to make connections with BofE Dems in the counties listed in Blue22's post #110 (see below.) Have to make some calls locally tomorrow to get a start.

#105 - Fairfax (a village under state population classification guideline, under 5,000 is a village) This is very near me...a middle-to-lower-middle class community, mostly post-WWII
smaller single family homes. Its eastern boundary is Mariemont, another "village," but very up-market, upper middle-class to better. Both probably pro-bush but likely many thinking moderates, too.

#110 - I'll see what I can dig up on contacts and polling data
in the first (19) NEP #'s listed. Start at top - NEP 007 (Butler), ending with NEP 033 (Franklin.) These are all locations with a "4% bush gain." or above. Okay? No promises, but will start with the counties closest to Hamilton. Focus on first (12) - 4.5% or
higher gain.

#111 - Is FOIL Freedom of Info LAW? What specifically is the
"county canvas report?" What data does it usually contain?

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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 05:09 PM
Response to Reply #112
114. canvass reports.
Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 05:10 PM by skids
...can come in many forms. In the punchcard counties these may be referred to also as "numbered key canvass" which refers to a specific printout/file format which the machines use.

The "precinct report" is needed to get precinct level data
Some of them (they all should, but...) contain the total ballots cast
Some of them (they all should, but...) contain separate overvote/undervote numbers.

If you can get a "ballot group detail" version of the "precinct report" if will break the vote down separately between absentee, provisional, and booth votes (and maybe separate federal absentee). These are harder to get both because sometimes the BOE's themselves don't know how or aren't familiar with using them, and also because when you break out small groups of voters like this it often runs the risk of exposing information about how an individual voter voted (that is, if you were the only one in your precinct to vote absentee, and someone knew this, then they would know how you voted.)

See http://uscvprogs.sf.net/boefmts.html for more info.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-17-05 11:55 PM
Response to Reply #114
129. Skids, do you know how much it might cost to manually recount a precinct?
Regarding the 2001 Miami Herald's Miami-Dade County recount, Eric Alterman reported:

"The Herald and its parent company, Knight Ridder, retained a public
accounting firm, BDO Seidman, LLP, to conduct the review. Spending more than 80 hours during a three-week period, the reporters and accountants examined every "undervote" separately and recorded their findings." (See http://www.commondreams.org/views01/0227-04.htm )

Thus, it would appear that a precinct manual recount could be done by private individuals, themselves, without having to pay county employees to do the actual handling and counting.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #129
131. Answer from adolfo, #3 on "Recount statutes for all 50 states" thread:
"For a citizen recount you will most likely need to look up public records laws. Ohio and Florida share similar "Sunshine" laws that allows anyone to count the ballots. It is just a matter of requesting access.

"In Ohio the cost is FREE. (as in $0)

"Florida will cost per hour, price depends on the county.

"I still have my $20 bucks waiting for whoever successfully organizes an independent recount for a suspected Ohio county."



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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 11:01 PM
Response to Reply #129
132. No, I don't.
sorry.

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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 09:36 PM
Response to Reply #114
153. Can we get separate Ohio "Early Voters" canvass totals?
Part of the Ohio NEP/canvass discrepancies could be due to the fact that NEP didn't poll Ohio absentees or early voters.

Mitofsky based his decision not to use telephone surveys in Ohio on the relatively low absentee voting in Ohio in 2000. (We know that, at least in some SW Ohio precincts, the absentee vote was quite high in 2004.)

Does anyone know if early voting was available in Ohio in 2000?
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 07:17 PM
Response to Reply #112
116. Thanks
Liam_laddie, Thanks.

fyi: FOIL is freedom of information law.

B-)
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 08:42 PM
Response to Reply #112
117. Do you have some doubt that Fairfax is precinct 55?
Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 08:50 PM by kiwi_expat
Are you concerned that Fairfax, a village, is described as a city "having populations of 50,000 to 500,000". Don't you think that the fact that it is practically enclosed by Cincinnati could explain that?

If Fairfax is not 55, that would mean that the NEP precincts are NOT listed in city name sequence (within county).

But if we are confident that NEP precincts are indeed listed by city name within county, we can immediately identify all of the NEP precinct numbers for each county set of exit poll precincts that you bag from the BoEs.

Thank you so much for the work you are about to do, Liam!!



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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 10:13 PM
Response to Reply #111
120. Can we inspect the actual ballots using FOIL?
Isn't that how the newspaper consortium was able to "view" (i.e., recount) the spoiled ballots in Florida in 2000?

Is FOIL information free?


Thank you very much for all of the work you are doing, Blue22. I am so impressed by your detailed lists and and tables.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 09:16 PM
Response to Original message
118. It doesn't matter what the historical percentage is
Even the Mitofski/Edison report admitted that Republican precincts were over-sampled. This means that Kerry's actual winning margin was even greater than what the raw data showed -- unless of course the theory (with no evidence to back it up whatsoever) that Bush voters within individual precincts were less likely to agree to participate in interviews than Kerry voters is valid.
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southwood Donating Member (74 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 07:45 PM
Response to Original message
130. This thread is extremely important and definitely deserves a
kick!
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Blue22 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-05 11:21 PM
Response to Original message
133. Mitovsky's "Exuberant Kerry survey responder" identified
Minvis,  As promised I have created some aggregations of NEP
data by precinct with some of the key demographics and vote
results that we will need to compare with reported votes and
census characteristics for the matched NEP precincts.  Below
is an example of the Ohio exit poll data but aggregated
statewide.  The first two columns show the characteristics of
the 2042 survey respondents before weighting and after
weighting.  

Mitovsky applied one weight to each response to try to match
Bush's vote total in the precinct but this obviously changed
the population characteristics as well.  For instance, Kerry
received 53.5 percent of the vote in the unweighted survey and
46.5 percent after Mitovsky had diminished the value of some
of the respondents who voted for Kerry.  This brought Kerry's
total closer to the reported statewide vote total and turned
an 8 point raw survey advantage into a 2 point loss post
weighting, quite a large adjustment.

Mitovsky's weighting also changed the characteristics of the
overall sample.  For instance, the number of female voters (a
Kerry majority group) fell from 54.2% to 52.7%.  To do this
Mitovsky had to change the equivalent of 30 women into 30 men.
Yikes! Further, Kerry's percent of the weighted female vote
fell even further from 54.5% to 49.5% suggesting that Mitovsky
also diminished the value of remaining female respondents who
voted for Kerry compared with those who voted for Bush.  In
order to get the thing to match Bush's reported vote Mitovsky
made the entire survey group more male, older, more white,
less poor, more protestant, less educated, more married, more
Republican and more religious.  In other words Mitovsky's
exuberant Kerry responder had a very specific profile.  She
was young, non-white, unpoor, catholic/jewish/agnostic,
single, not pious and a Democrat.  Sheesh.  Isn't this a
stretch?  I feel like I could go to Ohio and pick her out of a
crowd on the street.

While Mitovsky's exuberant Kerry respondent thesis continues
to look ludicrous, his weighting to match the Presidential
reported vote had the side effect of making the survey also
more closely match the reported results for the Senate race
and Ohio Issue #1 (look way down toward the bottom on the
table).  This is consistent with several theories: 1) that
there were too many liberals in the survey, 2) that general
vote suppression was more effectively targetted than believed
or 3) that the manipulation occurred beyond the Presidential
level.  The latter is somewhat illogical because why would
anyone try to jack up the vote count in a race that was a
landslide?

I'll report on the weighting for our matched NEP precincts
over the weekend.  As always, anyone who wants a copy of the
Excel formatted version of the NEP Ohio survey, just send me a
PM.


Effect of Mitofsky reweighting  on vote and demographics in
Ohio Exit Poll				
				
	      Raw     Wgt'd  Kerry%Raw	Kerry%Wgt'd
				
Number	     2,042.0   2,040.9   1092	950
				
Demographics of sample				
				
Total	       100.0%	100.0%	53.5%	46.5%
				
Male	        44.9%	46.1%	52.2%	46.8%
Female	        54.2%	52.7%	54.5%	49.5%
				
Age18-24	13.0%	11.2%	65.7%	61.6%
Age25-29	9.9%	9.9%	54.2%	49.9%
Age30-39	19.4%	18.0%	54.7%	50.0%
Age40-44	12.0%	11.5%	46.1%	41.7%
Age45-49	11.8%	11.2%	52.1%	45.9%
Age50-59	19.0%	17.5%	55.3%	48.8%
Age60-64	6.0%	8.1%	49.2%	44.7%
Age65-74	6.3%	9.1%	46.5%	45.3%
Age75+	        2.2%	3.1%	31.1%	29.4%
				
Race-White	83.9%	85.0%	48.4%	43.5%
Race-Black	10.8%	10.1%	85.5%	80.9%
Race-Hisp	1.8%	1.6%	77.8%	72.6%
Race-Asian	1.0%	0.9%	70.0%	65.4%
Race-Oth	1.1%	0.9%	68.2%	63.8%
				
Inc<15000	7.4%	6.8%	71.5%	68.0%
Inc15k-30k	14.0%	14.2%	68.2%	62.7%
Inc30k-50k	22.5%	22.6%	54.8%	49.3%
Inc50k-75k	19.5%	19.8%	47.6%	40.9%
Inc75k-100k	13.8%	13.4%	49.1%	45.4%
Inc100k-150k	8.1%	7.8%	46.4%	41.2%
Inc150k-200k	3.1%	3.3%	42.2%	36.5%
Inc200k+	1.8%	1.8%	35.1%	34.1%
				
RelProt	        48.5%	50.2%	47.2%	43.1%
RelCath  	23.6%	23.3%	48.2%	43.9%
RelJew	         0.8%	0.8%	64.7%	57.8%
RelOth  	6.0%	5.2%	79.7%	72.2%
RelNone 	10.4%	9.1%	74.1%	67.9%
				
EdNoHS  	2.9%	3.1%	64.4%	57.6%
EdHS    	25.6%	26.0%	54.2%	50.0%
EdSoCo   	26.3%	25.1%	52.9%	47.2%
EdColl  	22.1%	21.8%	48.5%	44.3%
EdCol+  	12.4%	11.7%	56.7%	48.7%
				
MarYes  	56.8%	58.4%	45.3%	40.3%
				
SzPl500k+	4.8%	6.1%	48.5%	42.5%
SzPl50-500k	19.7%	19.2%	67.9%	61.8%
SzPlSubur	49.8%	49.5%	53.8%	48.3%
SzPl10-50k	7.1%	6.3%	51.4%	49.1%
SzPl<10k	18.8%	18.9%	39.4%	35.7%
				
BrnAgnYes	27.6%	28.9%	36.7%	31.9%
				
Atnd1+wk	11.6%	12.4%	36.4%	31.0%
Atnd1wk 	22.9%	23.8%	39.6%	36.1%
Atnd1+mo	14.1%	13.7%	53.7%	49.0%
Atnd1+yr	27.2%	25.5%	63.8%	59.7%
AtndZero	13.3%	12.3%	68.6%	62.5%
AtndOmit	2.4%	2.8%	48.0%	41.6%
				
GeoCuy  	12.4%	12.0%	67.3%	63.5%
GeoNE   	25.1%	26.5%	54.4%	49.6%
GeoCent 	19.8%	20.3%	45.4%	40.1%
GeoNW   	16.2%	14.4%	57.1%	51.6%
GeoSW   	26.4%	26.7%	49.9%	44.2%
				
The Vote				
				
Dem     	37.3%	33.4%	90.7%	88.9%
Rep     	33.2%	37.2%	5.8%	6.3%
Ind     	23.6%	23.3%	63.1%	57.8%
Oth     	5.9%	6.2%	48.8%	45.0%
				
Raw Kerry	53.5%	48.2%		
Raw Bush	45.2%	50.2%		
Raw Other	0.2%	0.4%		
Raw No vote	1.1%	1.1%		
				
SRawFing	39.9%	34.1%	94.5%	93.1%
SRawVoin	54.7%	60.1%	24.0%	22.8%
SRawOth  	0.0%	0.0%		
SRawNoVt	0.0%	0.0%		
				
Iss1Yes  	54.8%	59.4%	34.9%	31.8%
Iss1No  	41.2%	36.6%	77.6%	73.9%
Iss1NoVt	0.0%	0.0%		
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-20-05 07:13 PM
Response to Reply #133
134. Thank you for the NEP Ohio survey Excel spreadsheets !
Edited on Sun Mar-20-05 07:15 PM by kiwi_expat
"As always, anyone who wants a copy of the
Excel formatted version of the NEP Ohio survey, just send me
a PM." -Blue22

At last, I am able see the precinct/respondent data. Thank you very very much!

I have mentioned your kind offer to e-mail the spreadsheets, on a couple of other threads.
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-25-05 02:16 AM
Response to Original message
142. 2042 people of the
13,660 respondents? Wow that is interesting that is a bulk of the exit polls.

What about the raw data for the swing states like Texas?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-09-05 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #142
147. Not so. They are separate numbers. 2042 is for STATE only
.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-09-05 11:05 PM
Response to Original message
146. Party ID Exit Poll Probabilities
Edited on Sat Apr-09-05 11:06 PM by TruthIsAll
OHIO

Final		Exit Poll	
Bush	51.06%	924	45.25%
Kerry	48.94%	1092	53.48%


Raw exit poll data				
2042	polled	
2.21%	MoE	

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
			
Dem		37%	9%	91%	0%
Repub		33%	94%	5%	1%
Indep		30%	40%	59%	1%
		100%	46.35%	53.02%	0.63%

P(Bush)	  1 in	66089			
P(Kerry)	1 in	6622			


.........................................
Change party ID to even split					

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem		34%	9%	91%	0%
Repub		33%	94%	5%	1%
Indep		33%	40%	59%	1%
		100%	47.28%	52.06%	0.66%

P(Bush)	  1 in	2456			
P(Kerry)	1 in	350			




Change partyID to favor Bush					
PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem		33%	9%	91%	0%
Repub		37%	94%	5%	1%
Indep		30%	40%	59%	1%
		100%	49.75%	49.58%	0.67%

P(Bush)	  1 in	8			
P(Kerry)	1 in	4			
					
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-13-05 06:38 AM
Response to Original message
148. So far, the names of 10 Ohio NEP precincts have been identified -
Edited on Wed Apr-13-05 06:39 AM by kiwi_expat
(I posted the following message on the "Does anyone know which precincts were in the exit poll for any states?" thread.)

So far, the names of 10 Ohio NEP precincts have been identified -

Hamilton County:
NEP#
49 Anderson JJ
51 Cincinnati 22-E
52 Cincinnati 4-M
54 Evendale D
55 Fairfax B
57 Harrison C
63 Sharonville 4-C

Butler County:
NEP#
7 Middletown 3DF
8 St. Clair Twp. 4KE

Clermont County:
NEP#
9 Bethel Village A

Liam_laddie has requested exit poll precinct-names from several other Ohio counties (including Cuyahoga), which will then be matched with NEP data on minvis' "Ohio Exit Poll Raw Data" thread. No NEP precinct-names have been identified for any other state, to my knowledge.

The NEP data is from the Univ. of Michigan. It includes one record for each NEP respondent, with both raw and final-weighted figures. Blue22 has kindly offered to e-mail his excel spreadsheets of the Ohio data (including precinct totals) to anyone who PMs him their e-mail address.

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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-13-05 12:49 PM
Response to Original message
149. Cuyahoga County NEP Precincts
Edited on Wed Apr-13-05 12:49 PM by minvis
Thanks to Liam_Laddie, we now have the NEP exit poll precincts for Cuyahoga County. They are as follows:

Cleveland 3G
Cleveland 16P
Bedford Heights 4B
Parma Heights R
Solon 2C
Westlake 2B

Cuyahoga County encompasses 3 congressional districts. They are the 10th, 11th and 14th. Once I looked at a precinct level map of Cuyahoga County, I was able to determine what district these precints were in.

The following were in the 10th District:

Cleveland 16P
Parma Heights R
Westlake 2B

The following were in the 11th District:

Cleveland 3G
Bedford Heights 4B

Finally, in the 14th District was Solon 2C.

I then went to the exit poll data and matched these precincts up to the NEP precinct numbers. Here is what I came up with.

Bedford Heights 4B = NEP Precinct 11
Cleveland 16P = NEP Precinct 14
Cleveland 3G = NEP Precinct 15
Parma Heights R = NEP Precinct 21
Solon 2C = NEP Precinct 23
Westlake 2B = NEP Precinct 24

The NEP exit poll raw numbers for each of those precincts are as follows:

Bedford Heights 4B: Kerry 47, Bush 4, 1 Did not vote and 1 blank
Cleveland 16P: Kerry 31, Bush 16
Cleveland 3G: Kerry 28, Bush 1, 1 blank
Parma Heights R: Kerry 9, Bush 11, 1 blank
Solon 2C: Kerry 33, Bush 17, 1 blank
Westlake 2B: Kerry 23, Bush 29

The official results for these precincts are as follows:

Bedford Heights 4B: Kerry 380, Bush 93, Peroutka 2
Cleveland 3G: Kerry 456, Bush 18
Cleveland 16P: Kerry 374, Bush 217, Badnarik 2, Peroutka 2
Parma Heights R: Kerry 162, Bush 196, Badnarik 1
Solon 2C: Kerry 276, Bush 117
Westlake 2B: Kerry 230, Bush 257, Badnarik 2, Peroutka 1

Blue22, et al. can you guys go to work on what precincts are the furthest outliers?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-13-05 02:19 PM
Response to Reply #149
150. 1.02% deviation to Bush
Edited on Wed Apr-13-05 03:11 PM by TruthIsAll
	Kexit	Bexit	K%	Kact	Bact	K%	Dev
Heights	47	4	92.16%	380	93	80.34%	-11.82%
16P:	31	16	65.96%	374	217	96.20%	30.25%
3G:	28	1	96.55%	456	18	63.28%	-33.27%
Heights	9	11	45.00%	162	196	45.25%	0.25%
2C:	33	17	66.00%	276	117	70.23%	4.23%
2B:	23	29	44.23%	230	257	47.23%	3.00%
							
Total	171	78	68.67%	1878	898	67.65%	-1.02%

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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-13-05 02:28 PM
Response to Reply #150
151. Cleveland numbers are switched
TIA, I believe you have the actual numbers switched for Cleveland 3G and Cleveland 16P. Cleveland 3G should be 456 to 18 and Cleveland 16P should be 374 to 217. That should make the deviation for Cleveland 16P -2.68 and Cleveland 3G -0.35.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-13-05 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #151
152. Thanks, Fixed it.
.
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:12 PM
Response to Reply #151
156. --
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-05 07:23 AM
Response to Reply #150
158. Corrected Cuyahoga table
	Kexit	Bexit	K%	Kact	Bact	K%	Dev
Heights	47	4	92.16%	380	93	80.34%	-11.82%
16P:	31	16	65.96%	374	217	63.28%  -2.68%
3G:	28	1	96.55%	456	18	96.20%  -0.35%
Heights	9	11	45.00%	162	196	45.25%	0.25%
2C:	33	17	66.00%	276	117	70.23%	4.23%
2B:	23	29	44.23%	230	257	47.23%	3.00%
							
Total	171	78	68.67%	1878	898	67.65%	-1.02%


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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-18-05 11:47 PM
Response to Original message
154. kick
I wonder just how many precincts are in this.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 07:36 AM
Response to Original message
155. Compare NEP precinct to canvass POLLING PLACE
Edited on Thu Apr-21-05 07:50 AM by kiwi_expat
It appears very likely that NEP interviewers sample ALL the precincts at a polling place. The NEP Methods Statement says that the interviewers are to sample every nth person at the polling location.
http://www.exit-poll.net/election-night/MethodsStatemen...


HAMILTON COUNTY NEP-PRECINCTS COMPARED TO POLLING-PLACES

KERRY PERCENT: Raw-NEP|polling-place|Kerry loss
(NEP#52)CINCINNATI 4-M 68% 46% 22%

(NEP#57)HARRISON C 43% 29% 14%

(NEP#55)FAIRFAX B 50% 37% 13%

(NEP#49)ANDERSON JJ 32% 24% 8%

(NEP#51)CINCINNATI 22-E 88% 82% 6%

(NEP#63)SHARONVILLE 4-C 30% 30% 0%

(NEP#54)EVENDALE D 25 33% -8%


For polling-place precincts' Bush-Kerry totals and Kerry%:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-05 12:48 AM
Response to Original message
157. Hamilton County: 3 NEP data priority-sequences
Following are 3 priority-sequences, for examining Hamilton
County NEP precincts.  They are based on different comparisons
with NEP raw data. 


            Kerry Raw-NEP|K polling-place|Kerry loss
(NEP#52)CINCINNATI 4-M  68%     46%       22%
     
(NEP#57)HARRISON C      43%     29%       14%
     
(NEP#55)FAIRFAX B       50%     37%       13%
     
(NEP#49)ANDERSON JJ     32%     24%        8%
  
(NEP#51)CINCINNATI 22-E 88%     82%        6%
     
(NEP#63)SHARONVILLE 4-C 30%     30%        0%
     
(NEP#54)EVENDALE D      25%     33%       -8%
     

             Kerry Raw-NEP|Kprecinct actual|Kerry loss
(NEP#52)CINCINNATI 4-M  68%     40%         28%
     
(NEP#55)FAIRFAX B       50%     38%         12%

(NEP#57)HARRISON C      43%     34%          9%
     
(NEP#49)ANDERSON JJ     32%     28%          4%
  
(NEP#51)CINCINNATI 22-E 88%     85%          3%
     
(NEP#63)SHARONVILLE 4-C 30%     32%         -2%
     
(NEP#54)EVENDALE D      25%     27%         -2%


             Kerry Raw-NEP|K Wgt-NEP|Kerry loss
(NEP#52)CINCINNATI 4-M  68%   61%    7%

(NEP#49)ANDERSON JJ     32%   26%    6%

(NEP#63)SHARONVILLE 4-C 30%   25%    5%
       
(NEP#55)FAIRFAX B       50%   48%    2%

(NEP#57)HARRISON C      43%   41%    2%

(NEP#54)EVENDALE D      25%   23%    2%
 
(NEP#51)CINCINNATI 22-E 88%   87%    1%

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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-01-05 06:44 AM
Response to Original message
159. Hamilton and Cuyahoga precincts with BIG deviations are NEP-national
Edited on Sun May-01-05 07:07 AM by kiwi_expat
Four of the 12 Ohio national precincts are in Hamilton County - precincts 52, 55, 57 and 63. No other county has more than 1 national precinct. (The other Ohio national precincts are 5, 11, 39, 41, 48, 76, 88, and 106.)

The Hamilton County NEP precincts that have very large raw-to-actual deviations (22%, 14%, and 13%) are all national precincts (52, 57, and 55).

The Cuyahoga County NEP precinct with a very large deviation (-11.82%) is the national precinct (11).

The 49 Ohio NEP precincts contain 2040 respondents. 404 of those respondents filled out the national questionnaires. The rest (1636) filled out the state questionnaires. The responses from both groups are used in the NEP state totals.


(NOTE: Blue22 has prepared 3 spreadsheets on Ohio NEP data, showing raw and final-weighted figures by respondent, with precinct totals. He has kindly offered to e-mail the spreadsheets to anyone who PMs him their e-mail address.)

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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-02-05 01:44 AM
Response to Reply #159
163. Sorry. The HC deviations should be expressed as negative.
The Hamilton County NEP precincts that have very large raw-to-actual deviations (-22%, -14%, and -13%) are all national precincts (52, 57, and 55).

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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 12:42 AM
Response to Reply #163
167. The corresponding Hamilton precincts' WPEs are -28%, -12%, and -9%
The raw-to-actual deviations shown in post #163 were calculated using the multiple precinct polling place data - because it is likely that all of the precincts at the polling place were sampled.

However, Mitofsky's Within-precinct Error (WPE) is calculated using the specific precinct data.

Four of the 5 National exit poll precincts in Hamilton and Cuyahoga counties have higher WPEs (-28%, -12%, -12%, -9%) than those counties' 8 State-only exit poll precincts (-8% to 8% WPE).


Perhaps it is more difficult to administer the 4 (intermixed) National questionnaires than the single State questionnaire.
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 06:33 AM
Response to Reply #167
177. After further reading of the E-M Report, I have to conclude...
Edited on Thu Jul-07-05 06:43 AM by kiwi_expat
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 07:55 PM
Response to Reply #167
178. Those Ham. and Cuy. WPEs are correct, after all.
Febble says that WPE is, indeed, calculated using the RAW (unweighted) NEP tallies. Amazing but true.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-21-05 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #167
180. CORRECTION: corresponding Hamilton precincts' WPEs are -56, -24, and -18
Edited on Fri Oct-21-05 03:59 PM by kiwi_expat
OTOH has pointed out to me that I have been using the wrong formula for calculating WPE. WPE is not based on (Kerry's)vote share, but on total margin. I need to double all of my WPEs.

So, correction: Hamilton and Cuyahoga counties have higher WPEs (-56, -24, -24, -18) than those counties' 8 State-only exit poll precincts (-16% to +16 WPE).


:blush:


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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-01-05 08:24 PM
Response to Original message
160. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-01-05 10:02 PM
Response to Reply #160
161. Blue22 has kindly offered to e-mail his Ohio NEP spreadsheets....
....to anyone who PMs him their e-mail address.

There are 2 Cincinnati precincts in the data: #51 (Cincy 22-E), and #52 (Cincy 4-M).
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-01-05 10:08 PM
Response to Reply #161
162. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-02-05 08:09 AM
Response to Original message
164. Clermont: NEP-raw vs. precinct and polling-place actual votes
CLERMONT COUNTY (NEP#9) BETHEL VILLAGE A

NEP raw: (Bush 31 Kerry 18) Kerry 37%


precinct actual: (Bush 300 Kerry 102) Kerry 25%

raw-to-actual: Kerry LOSS 12%


polling place: (Bush 1109 Kerry 471) Kerry 30%

raw-to-pollingplace: Kerry LOSS 7%
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-11-05 04:59 PM
Response to Original message
165. We have the Summit County NEP precincts
Liam_Laddie has obtained the NEP precincts for Summit County. They are Akron 9F, Barberton 1B, Cuyahoga Falls 3E, Hudson 2B and Bath C. All are in the 13th Congressional Districts with the exception of Hudson 2B which is in the 14th District. We're working on which NEP precincts they correspond to in the exit poll raw data. We should have it shortly.
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Ouabache Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-02-05 08:46 PM
Response to Original message
166. discrepancies between 2000 2004 county percentages?
Like say there was a very SMALL, rural, conservative, farm county that went for Bush with 67% of its' vote in 2000, but in 2004 that same county only gave Bush 60%. Wouldn't it be odd that a such a county had such a swing away in % away from Bush but that other counties that you would expect to be more dem or independent would actually GAIN %votes for Bush? Shouldn't those counties that are dem and indy lose even more than 7% for Bush, rather than Bush gaining a % there? Could it be that a tiny little farming county was just considered too insignificant to tamper with the bbv and they only went for the big counties to fix it?


pm me. if you are interested
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 11:26 AM
Response to Original message
168. Looking forward to Liam_laddie's report
Liam_Laddie is at the Hamilton County BOE today to inspect the punchcards for the three exit poll precincts for that county. I'll be interested in what he finds out.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-01-05 01:39 AM
Response to Reply #168
170. Hey minvis, answer something for me please:
This may have been discussed elsewhere, but if the punch cards went to the wrong machines, which could have switched Kerry votes to Bush in many precincts, could this even be detected by a hand count or examination? Were the individual ballots marked in some way other than by holes and chads, or do we have to go by the header cards?
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minvis Donating Member (334 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-01-05 10:22 AM
Response to Reply #170
171. Only Absentees are marked
If I remember right, I believe Liam_Laddie said that only the Absentee ballots are stamped with the precinct name and number. The others are not. So, you're right, it would be hard to detect by his hand count.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-01-05 12:31 PM
Response to Reply #171
173. I look forward to Liam's report but
Edited on Fri Jul-01-05 12:33 PM by Bill Bored
if what you say is true, the Ohio recount was doomed from the start, wasn't it? :(

Just to review for those who are unfamiliar, one of the major theories about what went wrong in Ohio was that ballots were switched to the wrong machines in Kerry-heavy precincts. Because of ballot order rotations in which Bush and Kerry's names were frequently in the same position on the ballots in collocated precincts, even if the switching were done completely randomly, in Kerry-heavy precincts it would have favored Bush because more votes would have been switched from Kerry to Bush than the other way around because there were more Kerry votes to being with.

If we are saying this is undetectable, it's the perfect crime!

The only way I can see to spot it is by comparing number of ballots to number of voters in each precinct. If the numbers add up, but are different for individual precincts, then some switching probably occurred. But there would be no way to determine the number of switched ballots would there?
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-01-05 01:28 AM
Response to Original message
169. I love this thread! It's just pure inductive reasoning in action.
A threat to any tyrant!
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liam_laddie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-01-05 12:10 PM
Response to Reply #169
172. Punch-card inspection Hamilton County 6-30-05
Hey, all - Well...I'm not sure what "inspection" can reveal...
Met with the BoE Director and three staff, with three exit-polled
precinct punch-card decks on the table. The absentees are
stored and counted separately, so we asked for them, too.
"We" - a friend who participated in the recount came along for
help and his familiarity with system.

We engaged first in a discussion about:
- procedures used on election night
- the pre-count testing done on the tabulators to assure accuracy
(with test decks of varying punch patterns, a sequence with various fault-tests, etc.
- the use of electronic voting devices and the problems therewith.
- they would prefer to continue use of punch-cards, partly for cost
(cards are $1.00 per 25 - opscan sheets are 30 each!) and partly that the main issue with cards is over/undervotes. Which seems to be a relatively minor issue, except in close races. It would be impossible to tell if any such cards were "spoiled" on purpose sometime in their trip from voters' hands to the tabs.
This requires full honesty from poll-workers. The cards are
transported to BoE in "money sack" type bags with a tamper-evident seal ring. I doubt that any gambits, except missing precincts, could occur. (I've heard of some counties
where this did occur - no votes from a precinct...)
- the data files' tracking after the tabulators read the cards.
Basically, I was looking for possible points-of-entry for fraud.

Not possible to verify:
- all the cards in the deck were actually cast-at-poll. Other than to compare the card-count audit page in the poll-list book, which is filled out and signed by all four poll-workers. This comparison is done by BoE staff on election night and if there's a problem, it's flagged and resolved.
- the preliminary results from the tabs are posted throughout the
evening, so to vary these (via later number-juggling) would be evident and unlikely.
- I believe that the totals are transmitted to the state central tabulator, and these are checked by local BoE's for agreement.

We looked at the 4-M absentee stack, which totaled correctly. These cards do have a two-line rubber stamp form on back which is filled in by hand with correct precinct before the ballot/card/instruction sheet packet is mailed to voter. None of the regularly cast cards are identified in any way. The stack has a header card to correctly read the precinct, ballot style and order.
I have come over the last few months to appreciate the complexity of managing the election process.

At this point, we decided that we really couldn't identify any specific problems which would point to "intentional error." Only
BoE staff handle the cards because the cards are somewhat
vulnerable to improper handling. So we did not continue the
process.

I am not experienced in looking for the subtle clues of tampering, and I did not ask to see over/undervotes or provisional cards, as the reported totals for these are far too small to change the winners. Plus the general opinion of those who worked the recount in December (Cobb team, etc,) is that in Hamilton County, the BoE seems to run a clean, non-corrupted process. Not true in adjacent Clermont or Warren counties. But those would take a legal challenge to get at the records...

It seems that this is the wrong county to examine. In addition, there are six elections this year here, with a congressional and some local issues on Aug, 2, a mayoral primary on Sept.13 and the "general" on Nov 8. Thus the staff has more important things
to attend to than inquiries (there have been many, by other investigators, but I have no info) like mine. Sorry there isn't
more useful news but that's it. It appears to me that the time period after the data is compiled by the tabs, some digital
skullduggery could take place, but it is very hard to discover how.
ES&S has the contract for tabs and CPU, so there's room for suspicion, but how to discover?
Regards to all, liam_laddie



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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-01-05 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #172
174. Thanks so much for continuing this effort LL!
Would you be willing to write a summary of your efforts so far, county by county, and start a new thread about it?

I think what is not well-known, but you and others on this thread have pointed out, is that there is no way to identify the individual Election Day punch cards by precinct. This makes it impossible to tell if the cards were counted on the correct machines programmed to read the correct ballot orders.

As such, it would have been helpful for the BOEs NOT to allow Bush and Kerry to EVER occupy the same place in the ballot order, or at least not in any collocated precincts. That way, votes would be switched to third party candidates which would be detected in large numbers, instead of being switched between Bush and Kerry, which would not be detected.

What it all boils down to is that we are at the mercy of the poll workers and the vendors. Who can be trusted and who can't? Hard for us to know. But it certainly seems that the process itself presents ample opportunity for fraud and this is disturbing.

At least Op Scan ballots would have the candidates' names printed on them! It's worth the extra $0.30 per ballot to have verifiable elections!

Here in NY, we only rotate ballot order in Primaries, because in that case, you have several candidates running for the same office from the same party. It's only fair not to always have the same one at the top of the "ticket" in each race. But in a general election, there's really no good reason to rotate ballot order, esp. if there's no way to verify the correct handling of individual ballots. Here in NY, I think ballot order in general elections goes according to the party of the Governor. After all, he/she WAS elected, and this prevents the kind of switching we've suspected in Ohio.

Let's see if any of the so-called experts examining Ohio come to the same conclusions. If not, they need to go back to election school, IMO!

Thanks again for all your hard work!
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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-05-05 01:21 AM
Response to Reply #172
175. Thanks, Liam !

Liam, congratulations and thanks very much for your inspection of the 3 Hamilton County precincts' ballots. And thanks to your assistant!

I agree, based on your report, that it does seem unlikely that fraud occurred in a Hamilton County precinct. However, on the off chance that there had been tabulator fraud in one of those precincts, an actual manual recount would detect it (unless the card deck has the wrong header-card, as BB suggests).

My guess, based in large part on the reports from the precinct observers, is that the large WPE (-28%) in Cincy 4-M is due to sampling error.

But, based on Febble's analysis, I would say that a recount, including under and over votes, of Cincy 22-E (a Kerry stronghold) might still be worth doing, to look for tabulator fraud.

Thanks again for all you have done!!

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KaliTracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-05-05 08:43 PM
Response to Reply #172
176. thank you for the update Liam_Laddie. What you've been doing for
the cause has been great. Appreciate your time invested and dedication!

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kiwi_expat Donating Member (526 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-22-05 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
179. kick (to keep alive) n/t
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