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What is the probability that ALL 50 states would exceed the MOE for Bush?

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-14-05 04:18 PM
Original message
What is the probability that ALL 50 states would exceed the MOE for Bush?
Edited on Mon Feb-14-05 04:52 PM by TruthIsAll
Actually, 17 exceeded the state exit poll margin of error.
Each additional state makes the probability much less likely.

Just having a little fun.

No.of	
states	
beyond	Probability
MOE	1 in

1	1.4
2	3
3	8
4	28
5	123
6	662
7	4,214
8	31,188
9	264,775
10	2,551,003
11	27,650,777
12	334,779,027
13	4,500,728,464
14	66,853,020,488
15	1,092,586,148,150
16	19,577,335,627,708

17	383,460,581,646,824

18	8,189,695,680,931,680
19	190,319,450,041,161,000
20	4,804,103,490,729,780,000
21	131,535,012,282,613,000,000
22	3,901,974,362,957,790,000,000
23	125,306,706,297,519,000,000,000
24	4,353,671,419,737,160,000,000,000
25	163,598,780,929,116,000,000,000,000
26	6,648,193,701,525,870,000,000,000,000
27	292,204,109,059,574,000,000,000,000,000
28	13,896,097,266,080,100,000,000,000,000,000
29	715,477,803,848,928,000,000,000,000,000,000
30	39,919,266,727,746,200,000,000,000,000,000,000
31	2,416,346,782,507,100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
32	158,914,991,404,095,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
33	11,375,826,489,208,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
34	888,300,430,007,246,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
35	75,862,583,475,284,400,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
36	7,107,773,520,372,520,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
37	733,295,463,227,010,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
38	83,670,002,377,083,200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
39	10,614,122,675,345,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
40	1,506,483,027,083,520,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
41	241,070,528,151,754,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
42	43,906,750,235,413,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
43	9,210,338,869,052,550,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
44	2,259,344,869,726,780,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
45	661,276,977,742,810,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
46	237,409,991,198,539,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
47	108,856,287,475,067,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
48	67,964,127,794,279,700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
49	64,974,402,882,020,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
50	126,765,060,022,822,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000


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PROGRESSIVE1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-14-05 04:19 PM
Response to Original message
1. ...........
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-19-05 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #1
10. Kick for the progressives...
.
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EVDebs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-14-05 04:29 PM
Response to Original message
2. Bush is Err America ! eom
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BanzaiBonnie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-14-05 04:29 PM
Response to Original message
3. Too many acronyms
What is MOE?

Of course when you know it all makes sense.
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holomua Donating Member (16 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-14-05 04:47 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. margin of error n/t
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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-14-05 05:54 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Or "Management Of Elections"..... n/t
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-23-05 05:36 AM
Response to Reply #5
14. Kick
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-14-05 06:24 PM
Response to Original message
6. 1 in 126.7 thousand trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion.
The odds of all 50 states exceeding the MOE for Bush.

Maybe in 2008 when Jeb runs.
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NationalEnquirer Donating Member (571 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-15-05 11:46 AM
Response to Original message
7. How bout just "Not a whole damn lot!"
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Hell in a Handbasket Donating Member (242 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-15-05 01:01 PM
Response to Original message
8. that looks very complicated.
what's it mean?

and, how do you think it will effect Bush's presidency? I cant imagine that the MSM would carry the story.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-15-05 02:05 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Very simple. These are the odds of the exit polls deviating to Bush.
beyond the exit poll margin of error in X out of 50 states, where X =1 to 50.

17 states exceeded the exit poll MOE.
The odds are 1 in 383 trillion.

How will it effect Bush's presidency? Well, first the statistics have to be told to the American people by the MSM, by having PHDs on the talk shows explaining the probabilities.

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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-20-05 05:30 AM
Response to Original message
11. Its completely possible if......
A whole bunch of persons were purged off the voter rolls, and never actually counted or tabulated in the results.

On top of that it is possible that at the same time, a whole record of other people who are in another country or some that don't even exist voted instead and all their results were counted.

That's how we have setup voter registration and counting today, with hundreds of voters that aren't even real who might be in the BOE anyway. And thousands of others who may be registered but their punchcard never counts as a vote.
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BlueIris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-20-05 06:18 AM
Response to Original message
12. Ah, TruthIsAll,
Nice to see you again. Your posts were the ones that I used to help prove to my family there were eighteen thousand different kinds of fraud in the election.
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-21-05 04:14 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. One other thing....
The real major red flag that analysts and now steve freeman keep pointing to, is that the exit poll weightings for religious affiliation, ideology and other catergories switched places or flipped to the other side within 1% error.

That is basically next to impossible. But could be explained by purged voters, or ineligible ballots. Let's say it was due to provisional ballots and straight-ticket bias alone.

Only thing left to prove is it was done intentionally, ie: programmed.
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