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1/23 UPDATE: NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-23-05 12:55 PM
Original message
1/23 UPDATE: NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS
Edited on Sun Jan-23-05 01:50 PM by TruthIsAll
The average of the weighted National Exit Poll statistics
across  categories indicates that Kerry won by 50.8% - 48.0%. 


National Exit Poll 
13047 sampled
Randomly selected
1.0% Margin of Error

Quick summary:
Women (54% majority) voted almost 5-4 for Kerry
Protestants voted 5-4 for Bush. All others voted for Kerry.
Military voted 5-4 for Bush
Late deciders voted 5-4 for Kerry 
Those who considered Economy, health care or education as most
important issues voted 3-1 for Kerry.
Those who considered morality or terror as most important
issues voted 4-1 for Bush.
The South voted 5-4 for Bush. Kerry won all other regions.
Moderates voted almost 3-2 for Kerry.
Independents voted 6-5 for Kerry.
Under age 30 voters voted 5-4 for Kerry.
Post graduates voted 3-2 for Kerry.
Under $50k income voted 3-2 for Kerry.


WEIGHTED SUMMARY			
CATEGORY       Bush   Kerry   Nader			
			
GENDER        48.22%  50.78%  1.00%			
EDUCATION     48.05%  50.21%  1.17%			
INCOME        48.12%  51.42%  0.95%			

RACE          47.86%  50.94%  1.00%			
AGE           48.17%  50.53%  1.00%			
PARTYID       47.77%  50.69%	 0.92%

IDEOLOGY      48.15%  49.85%  1.00%			
RELIGION      48.19%  51.55%  1.19%			
MILITARY      47.62%  51.20%  1.00%			

DECIDED       47.95%  51.23%  0.54%			
ISSUES        47.92%  50.80%  1.28%			
REGION        47.95%  50.53%  1.00%			
			
AVERAGE       48.00%  50.81%  1.00%			

Actual Vote
Bush  62,028,194	50.732%
Kerry 59,027,612	48.277%

Probability of Bush average deviation (2.732%):
= 1- NORMDIST(0.5073,0.48,0.01/1.96,TRUE)= 0.000000043879
or
************* 1 in 22,790,202 **************

Probability of Bush deviation based on Party-ID (2.96%):
= 1- NORMDIST(0.5073,0.4777,0.01/1.96,TRUE)= 0.000000003294
or
************* 1 in 303,538,508 *************


                
GENDER   
..... Vert    Bush  Kerry   Nader     Bush    Kerry Nader
Male  46%     52%    47%      1%      23.5%   21.6%   0.5%
Female 54%    45%    54%      1%      24.3%   29.2%   0.5%
      100%                            48.22%  50.78% 1.00%

EDUCATION
........  Vert    Bush  Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry Nader
No HS      4%      47%  52%     1%      1.9%    2.1%    0.0%
HS Grad   22%      48%  51%     1%      10.6%   11.2%   0.2%
College   31%      51%  47%     1%      15.8%   14.6%   0.3%
Col Grad  26%      50%  48%     1%      13.0%   12.5%   0.3%
Postgrad  17%      40%  58%     2%       6.8%    9.9%   0.3%
          100%                          48.1%   50.2%   1.2%
                                                        

 AGE 
........  Vert   Bush  Kerry   Nader    Bush    Kerry Nader
18-29      17%   43%    56%     1%      7.3%    9.5%    0.2%
30-44      27%   50%    49%     1%      13.5%   13.2%   0.3%
45-59      30%   47%    51%     1%      14.1%   15.3%   0.3%
60 +       26%   51%    48%     1%      13.3%   12.5%   0.3%
          100%                          48.2%   50.5%   1.0%

INCOME
......Vert    Bush   Kerry   Nader    Bush    Kerry   Nader
0-$15    9%     33%     66%     1%      3.0%    5.9%   0.1%
15-30   15%     39%     59%     1%      5.9%    8.9%   0.2%
30-50   22%     47%     52%     1%     10.3%   11.4%   0.2%
50-75   23%     53%     45%     1%     12.2%   10.4%   0.2%
75-100  13%     50%     49%     0%      6.5%    6.4%   0.0%
100-150 11%     53%     45%     2%      5.8%    5.0%   0.2%
150-200  4%     53%     47%     0%      2.1%    1.9%   0.0%
200,000  4%     58%     41%     1%      2.3%    1.6%   0.0%
       100%                            48.1%   51.4%   1.0%

PARTYID
........  Vert   Bush Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry Nader
Dem        38%     9%  90%     1%      3.4%   34.2%   0.4%
Rep        35%    92%  7%      0%     32.2%    2.5%   0.0%
Ind        27%    45%  52%     2%     12.2%   14.0%   0.5%
          100%                        47.77%  50.69% 0.92%
                                                        
IDEOLOGY
...... Vert    Bush  Kerry   Nader    Bush    Kerry  Nader
Lib   22%     12%     86%     1%      2.6%    18.9%   0.2%
Mod   45%     41%     57%     1%      18.5%   25.7%   0.5%
Con   33%     82%     16%     1%      27.1%   5.3%    0.3%
      100%                            48.2%   49.9%   1.0%
                                                        
RELIGION
......Vert    Bush  Kerry   Nader      Bush    Kerry Nader
Prot   53%     56%     43%     1%      29.7%   22.8%   0.5%
Cath   27%     49%     50%     1%      13.2%   13.5%   0.3%
Jewish  3%     23%     77%    0%        0.7%    2.3%   0.0%
Other   7%     20%     75%     4%       1.4%    5.3%   0.3%
None   10%     29%     70%     1%       3.2%    7.7%   0.1%
      100%                             48.2%   51.6%   1.2%
                                                        
MILITARY
...... Vert    Bush  Kerry  Nader      Bush    Kerry Nader
Yes     18%    55%     43%     1%      9.9%    7.7%    0.2%
No      82%    46%     53%     1%      37.7%   43.5%   0.8%
        100%                           47.6%   51.2%   1.0%
                                                        
WHEN DECIDED
........  Vert   Bush  Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry  Nader
Today       6%   40%     53%     5%     2.4%    3.2%    0.3%
Last3Days   3%   41%     53%     4%     1.2%    1.6%    0.1%
Last Week   2%   51%     48%     1%     1.0%    1.0%    0.0%
Last Month 10%   38%     60%     1%     3.8%    6.0%    0.1%
Before     79%   50%     50%     0%     39.5%  39.5%    0.0%
           100%                         48.0%  51.2%    0.5%

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE 
....... Vert    Bush  Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry  Nader
Taxes    5%     53%    47%     0%      2.7%    2.4%    0.0%
Educ     4%     24%    75%     0%      1.0%    3.0%    0.0%
Iraq     15%    23%    76%     1%      3.5%   11.4%    0.2%
Terror   18%    85%    15%     1%     15.3%    2.7%    0.2%
Economy  20%    16%    82%     1%      3.2%   16.4%    0.2%
Morals   21%    78%    19%     3%     16.4%    4.0%    0.6%	
Health   8%     20%    79%     0%      1.6%    6.3%    0.0%	
         100%                         47.9%   50.8%   1.3%			
REGION
......Vert    Bush  Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry   Nader
East   22%    41%     58%     1%      9.0%   12.8%   0.2%	
Midw   25%    49%     50%     1%     12.3%   12.5%   0.3%	
South  31%    54%     44%     1%     16.7%   13.6%   0.3%	
West   22%    45%     53%     1%      9.5%   11.1%   0.2%	
      100%                          47.95%  50.53%	1.00%


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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-23-05 12:57 PM
Response to Original message
1. Nominated. (n/t)



BE THE BUSH OPPOSITION; 24/7
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-23-05 05:28 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. GRAPH
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-26-05 01:13 PM
Response to Reply #5
14. Probabilities of Bush gain from exit poll category weight to 50.73%
Edited on Wed Jan-26-05 01:15 PM by TruthIsAll
Probabilities of Bush gain from exit poll to 50.73%						
						
CATEG	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Gain	Probability	Odds
						         1 in
GENDER	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%	2.51%	0.000000434240	2,302,876
EDU	48.05%	50.21%	1.17%	2.68%	0.000000075052	13,324,109
INCOME	48.12%	51.42%	0.95%	2.61%	0.000000156649	6,383,709
						
RACE	47.86%	50.94%	1.00%	2.87%	0.000000009290	107,643,835
AGE	48.17%	50.53%	1.00%	2.56%	0.000000262026	3,816,418
PARTYID	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%	2.96%	0.000000003294	303,538,508
						
IDEOL	48.15%	49.85%	1.00%	2.58%	0.000000213531	4,683,157
RELIG	48.19%	51.55%	1.19%	2.54%	0.000000321057	3,114,714
MILIT	47.62%	51.20%	1.00%	3.11%	0.000000000547	1,827,411,387
						
DECIDED	47.95%	51.23%	0.54%	2.78%	0.000000025415	39,346,268
ISSUES	47.92%	50.80%	1.28%	2.81%	0.000000018233	54,845,383
REGION	47.95%	50.53%	1.00%	2.78%	0.000000025415	39,346,268
						
AVERAGE	48.00%	50.81%	1.00%	2.73%	0.000000043879	22,790,202
Probability of Bush average deviation (2.732%):			
1- NORMDIST(0.5073,0.48,0.01/1.96,TRUE)= 0.000000043879		
or						
************* 1 in 22,790,202 **************						
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-23-05 12:58 PM
Response to Original message
2. Truly amazing. Kerry wins in all categories but loses popular vote!
Bull shit. :puke:

Do you know any legitimate statisticians who are taking on your points or the other doubters with legitimate arguments? I have no doubt that you're correct because if you're not, we need a new foundation for science and technology since statistical laws are now defunct.

Thank you for your ongoing contributions and very hard work!!!
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-23-05 01:27 PM
Response to Original message
3. Excellent - solid to anyone with training in math - but our media will say
"its over" as they hide the GOP theft - again.

God bless our honest free press.

Our we are not controlled by the right wing GOP - we just act that way - free press.

:-(
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dzika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-25-05 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #3
12. papau, I'm frustrated by the media's take on exit polls also
To his credit, TIA is undaunted.

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fooj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-23-05 01:46 PM
Response to Original message
4. Once again...thanks! My God, do you ever get any rest?
This is awesome...helps keep the movement energized! Remember when America wouldn't put up with this BS for one minute? We've got to get back to that place called The United States of America...Peace!
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Twist_U_Up Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-23-05 05:37 PM
Response to Original message
6. another solid piece but........
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Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-23-05 09:03 PM
Response to Original message
7. kick n/t
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k8conant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-23-05 10:24 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. kick
:kick:
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-24-05 10:35 AM
Response to Original message
9. a TBO;24/7 kick (nt)
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-24-05 12:16 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. TIA TIA do you sleep? Properly?
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-25-05 09:43 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. a TBO;24/7 kick (nt)
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1democracy Donating Member (142 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-25-05 11:28 PM
Response to Original message
13. Just for fun, who were the 62 million who voted for Bush?
From these polls (I know I'm not using them as intended-- the categories should be independent, I think--but for fun)
these voters were conservative Republican Southern men in the military concerned with morality and terrorism who make more than $50,000 a year with some college but no degree. Very unusual voter base!!!
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