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Coincidence?100% paper-ballot OR is MOST accurate (within 0.40%) Exit Poll

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 12:51 PM
Original message
Coincidence?100% paper-ballot OR is MOST accurate (within 0.40%) Exit Poll
Edited on Thu Jan-20-05 01:18 PM by TruthIsAll
Mitofsky did pretty well there.
He had accurate votes to work with.

THIRTY (30) STATES DEVIATED BY MORE THAN 2.0% TO BUSH .
THE LARGEST STATE DEVIATION TO KERRY WAS KS (1.62%).

ONLY FIVE (5) STATES (OR,OK,SD,HI,CA) DEVIATED WITHIN 1.0%.
FOUR (4) OF THEM DEVIATED TO KERRY.

ONLY EIGHT (8) STATES DEVIATED TO KERRY.


ToBush:  Sample	Kerry  %Dev	VoteDev
NY	1,452	63.0%	-4.61%	-340,551
FL	2,846	50.5%	-3.38%	-256,646
PA	1,930	54.3%	-3.39%	-195,347
OH	1,963	52.1%	-3.39%	-190,916
NC	2,167	48.0%	-4.41%	-154,467

IL	1,392	57.0%	-2.18%	-114,922
MA	889	66.0%	-3.91%	-113,738
MN	2,178	54.5%	-3.30%	-93,256
WI	2,223	52.5%	-2.74%	-81,894
SC	1,735	46.0%	-5.04%	-81,480

AL	730	41.0%	-4.14%	-77,899
VA	1,431	48.0%	-2.40%	-76,544
NJ	1,520	55.0%	-2.05%	-74,027
CT	872	58.5%	-4.19%	-66,085
MI	2,452	52.5%	-1.25%	-60,673

WA	2,123	54.9%	-2.09%	-59,705
AZ	1,859	47.0%	-2.60%	-52,391
GA	1,536	43.0%	-1.59%	-52,331
CO	2,515	49.1%	-2.02%	-42,881
IN	926	41.0%	-1.74%	-42,843

LA	1,669	44.5%	-2.19%	-42,449
UT	798	30.5%	-4.47%	-41,384
MO	2,158	47.5%	-1.40%	-38,227
MS	798	43.3%	-3.04%	-34,593
NH	1,849	55.4%	-5.05%	-34,119

NE	785	36.8%	-4.04%	-31,386
MD	1,000	57.0%	-1.03%	-24,499
KY	1,034	41.0%	-1.31%	-23,570
AR	1,402	46.6%	-2.05%	-21,638
IA	2,502	50.6%	-1.36%	-20,509

ID	559	33.5%	-3.24%	-19,358
RI	809	64.0%	-4.43%	-19,303
DE	770	58.5%	-5.14%	-19,276
VT	685	65.0%	-5.78%	-17,981
NM	1,951	51.30%	-2.25%	-17,042

WV	1,722	45.3%	-2.05%	-15,528
AK	910	40.5%	-4.89%	-15,257
NV	2,116	49.4%	-1.26%	-10,397
ME	1,968	54.7%	-1.17%	-8,682
OK	1,539	35.0%	-0.57%	-8,349

MT	640	39.8%	-1.20%	-5,384
WY	684	30.9%	-1.77%	-4,295
DC	795	91.0%	-1.57%	-3,555

ToKerry:
SD	1,495	37.8%	0.68%	2,645
HI	499	53.3%	0.71%	3,044

ND	649	34.0%	1.50%	4,692
OR	1,064	51.2%	0.40%	7,316
KS	654	35.0%	1.62%	19,283
TN	1,774	41.5%	1.03%	24,992
CA	1,919	54.0%	0.43%	53,746

TX	1,671	37.0%	1.23%	90,930

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Nashyra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
1. This has to go to the MSM
We need to use this as an example of what needs to be done nationwide. This is hard core proof. We need to take this and run. Every Senator and Congress person should get this with a letter or e-mail in multiples.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 03:24 PM
Response to Reply #1
16. Avg 8 state shift to Kerry: 0.95%; Avg 43 state shift to Bush:2.83%
The RED Shift to Bush was MORE THAN 5 times larger in terms of the number of states and THREE times larger in average MAGNITUDE of the shift, than was the BLUE shift to Kerry.

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euler Donating Member (515 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 01:14 AM
Response to Reply #1
22. Please be more specific
What is "hard core proof?"
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drummer55 Donating Member (306 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 12:56 PM
Response to Original message
2. Awesome work Truthisall
been watching and reading most everything you do with the numbers. Keep it up! Your work is appreciated and you are being an effective voice for change!
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 12:57 PM
Response to Original message
3. You did it again!
Bless you TIA!
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 12:57 PM
Response to Original message
4. As an Oregonian, I can only say I wish all states would use this method
I've heard negatives about employing it in other states, such as size of population, cost, et cetera.

To me, there is no greater cost than an election in which the people cannot trust the results.
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brindis_desala Donating Member (866 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 03:10 PM
Response to Reply #4
15. Right on! I have been preaching that all week.
Even dems here don't seem to get it. You don't have to reinvent the wheel to take fraud out of elections and the public would respond.
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Amaryllis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 02:01 AM
Response to Reply #4
24. It doesnt cost nearly as much as computerized voting machines! We
do, however, need to deal with our tabulators which are Diebold and ES and S. THis could easily turn into a problem if at some point we did not have the honest election officials and SOS we have now.
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Alisa Donating Member (169 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 12:57 PM
Response to Original message
5. Really excellent analysis
Edited on Thu Jan-20-05 01:24 PM by Alisa
- we should insist on paper vote - ONLY! We're too young to be paying with electronics!
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 01:04 PM
Response to Original message
6. Aaargh, I said this TWO MONTHS AGO
Begged people to compare Oregon to other states, I'm not a statistician. We kept all the Dem & Nader voters from 2000 AND we didn't lose the 35-49 bracket. That's the bracket that switched in the last exit polls released in other states. We also have no minority vote to speak of and we also had gay marriage on the ballot. How'd we win, and win pretty big, compared to other states? Not only do we have all paper ballots, they also all go to one county location. NO uploading from precincts to counties to a central database.
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Alisa Donating Member (169 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 01:08 PM
Response to Original message
7. I just sent this information to the Star - Tribune (MN)
which today had an excellent editorial on Condi - so here's my thank you to them.
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 01:11 PM
Response to Original message
8. It would be interesting to correlate your results with the % of
electronic to paper votes in each state.

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drummer55 Donating Member (306 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. That would be good.
Oregon is vote by mail.

Its still counted by central tabulators though
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Maine-i-acs Donating Member (989 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 01:18 PM
Response to Original message
9. Compare ME and NH:
Both had similar exit polls.
Both have 2/3 optical scan, 1/3 paper ballots.

Difference: NH uploads optical scan data to a central tabulator ... Maine phones in by precinct.

ME 1,968 54.7% -1.17% -8,682
NH 1,849 55.4% -5.05% -34,119

Vote padding, anyone?

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qwghlmian Donating Member (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. NH - Ida Briggs and Nader recounted the most
"suspicious" precincts and found that the actual election results were correct.

Incorrect exit polls, anyone?

http://www.invisibleida.com/index.html
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Amaryllis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 02:09 AM
Response to Reply #11
26. NH recount not done properly! They recounted PRECINCTS. Kip from
Edited on Fri Jan-21-05 02:17 AM by Amaryllis
51 Capital March has been working with Verified Voting for many months and he is an IT security guy. He told me they wouldn't find anything unless they recounted COUNTIES.
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qwghlmian Donating Member (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 02:18 AM
Response to Reply #26
27. They could have recounted counties if they wanted to -
it would have just cost more.

Anyway - what do you think counties consist of if not precincts. If you recount COUNTIES you by necessity are recounting PRECINCTS.
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Amaryllis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 02:45 AM
Response to Reply #27
32. You have to count ALL the precincts within any single county if you want t
determine fraud. THey didn't do this. They only counted 11 precincts. Whether they could have or not is beside the point because they didn't.
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qwghlmian Donating Member (768 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 02:50 AM
Response to Reply #32
33. Huh? Please explain exactly how you can commit
election fraud only at county level and not at precinct level. There is this myth about central county tabulatoors adding up precincts wrong. Come on, how gullible are you? Every precinct counts its votes before sending them to county, there are dozens if not hundreds of precinct workers who KNOW what their precinct's totals were, and if they see the wrong numbers published at county level (and they are published precinct by precinct, you're aware of that, right?) they will keep silent? All of them?
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googly Donating Member (801 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 01:53 PM
Response to Original message
12. Since Oregon is 100% mail-in ballots, how is exit poll conducted?
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 02:41 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Oregon polling was done by telephone
This is one possible explanation for the accuracy in Oregon. It would be interesting to see the refusal rate in Oregon.

We need more raw data released before the final word will be in on the exit polls.
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 02:46 PM
Response to Original message
14. Polling by telephone should be more accurate.
With polling using this method, the identity of the voter is known. Information, like party registration, is available to the interviewers. They can employ better knowledge about the potential interviewees to ensure representation of the electorate.

Unlike random voter selection at a polling place (ie. every 10th person), telephone polling allows for better methodology.

Whether or not this was the case, I cannot say. But it should be.
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googly Donating Member (801 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #14
17. Is Telephone polling MORE accurate than actual vote counts?
Edited on Thu Jan-20-05 06:10 PM by googly
If Yes, then let us save the Billions spent each election on voting machines, polling booth staff, vote counting staff, lawyers,
litigations, ballot printing and subsequent safeguarding etc. etc.
Let us just conduct a telephone poll and declare the winner on
election day. Fast, Cheap, and just as good.

If No, then any kind of polling is just that...an aproximation in
anticipation of the actual vote counts. It is mainly useful for selling
newspapers and TV advertising time.

Just as a recent example, look at the vote counts in Washington
Governor's race. There was the initial machine count, the next
machine recount and finally the manual hand count. Out of the
2,300,000 votes cast in state, all 3 counts came in within 0.0082%
of each other. That is phenominal accuracy no matter how you skin the
cat.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 08:56 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. When the actual vote counts are fraudulent? Of course. n/t
Edited on Thu Jan-20-05 08:57 PM by TruthIsAll
.
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 01:10 AM
Response to Reply #17
21. They are equally accurate.
If you can count. When you take a telephone poll, the results are accurate if you record the results accurately and sum it accurately.

Just kidding, cuz if you can miss the point, so can I.

Telephone polling can be more accurate because you can begin with more information. In Oregon, you can see who voted and you can determine their party registration, so when you do an exit poll, you do not have to worry if you have too many Democrats or Republicans in your sample. You know in advance who they are.

That's the point you missed. The comparison is between exit polling at polling stations and exit polling by telephone. In both cases, you are only asking people who voted. By telephone, you can have determined party affiliation and other personal data in advance. You cannot do that at the polling place.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 02:32 AM
Response to Reply #21
29. And party affiliation was the biggest error in Mitofsky's exit poll. n/t
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 02:33 AM
Response to Reply #29
30. Oh sorry , I forgot, THAT poll was PERFECT! :-) n/t
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jkd Donating Member (151 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 11:36 PM
Response to Reply #14
20. Ogegon might have the solution.
They could use a simple random sample of all voters with no worry about precincts, clustering, etc. Anonymity will be compromised, however. Some voters might object because the interviewer will know their personal information.

Oregon's system might be susceptible to the obvious type of fraud, but I believe wide-spread vote buying would be difficult to conceal.

At least when they match, we can have confidence that both the vote and the exit polls are legitimate.
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Amaryllis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 02:03 AM
Response to Reply #14
25. I was thinking random sampling would be more accurate? For example,
many people now only use cell phones so they would not be part of any telephone exit polls.
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Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 10:04 PM
Response to Original message
19. Let's get a NIGHTLINE segment for you. n/t
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chrisclub Donating Member (73 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 01:47 AM
Response to Original message
23. 2,498,729 votes stolen from Kerry, given to Bush
Net of the deviation votes.

That is 2.5 million extra votes for Bush, folks!
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 02:21 AM
Response to Original message
28. And I'm sure someone will point out
Edited on Fri Jan-21-05 02:23 AM by Bill Bored
that for this very reason, it wasn't an exit poll!

Oh, and BTW, do they have TABULATORS in OR, or do they add all those ballots up by hand?
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Amaryllis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 02:39 AM
Response to Reply #28
31. We have tabulators and a quite a few of us are working on that issue.
Edited on Fri Jan-21-05 02:41 AM by Amaryllis
We have Diebold and ES & S tabulators and right now have a great and honest SOS who has worked hard to ensure the security of our elections but the security of our elections shouldn't be dependent on the honesty of our officials. We have some very active groups here who are looking into the tabulator issue.

Also see post #6 from sandnsea: "NO uploading from precincts to counties to a central database."
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 08:25 AM
Response to Reply #31
34. You fill out the ballot by hand. It should also be counted manually.

As Stalin said: It's not who votes, it's who counts the votes.
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