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RED SHIFT: 2.5 million votes lost by Kerry

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-19-05 10:21 PM
Original message
RED SHIFT: 2.5 million votes lost by Kerry
Edited on Wed Jan-19-05 10:31 PM by TruthIsAll
The Method:

1) Multiply the percentage deviation from exit poll to final vote by the total number of votes cast in each state to calculate the votes lost (or gained).

2) Add the vote deviations lost and gained in all the states.

These are the total vote deviations:

Lost to Bush: 2,705,375
Gained by Kerry: 206,648

KERRY LOST A NET 2.5 MILLION VOTES

The final reported vote:
Bush: 62,028,194 50.732%
Kerry:59,027,612 48.277%

Net difference in the Red Shift: -2,498,727
Subtracting it from Bush's total:
Bush: 59,529,467 (48.69%)

Adding it to Kerry's total:
Kerry: 61,526,339 (50.32%)

The percentages are based on the grand total of 122,267,553 votes.



View the image of our pain:
Image
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BamaLefty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-19-05 10:30 PM
Response to Original message
1. You Need To Be Hired
Make sure and save all of that so your work won't be in vain. Maybe one day you can show the world.

Keep working hard,
BamaLefty
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-19-05 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
2. The numbers are right here
SampleSize	Kerry  %Dev	VoteDev
To Bush:
NY	1,452	63.0%	-4.61%	-340,551
FL	2,846	50.5%	-3.38%	-256,646
PA	1,930	54.3%	-3.39%	-195,347
OH	1,963	52.1%	-3.39%	-190,916
NC	2,167	48.0%	-4.41%	-154,467

IL	1,392	57.0%	-2.18%	-114,922
MA	889	66.0%	-3.91%	-113,738
MN	2,178	54.5%	-3.30%	-93,256
WI	2,223	52.5%	-2.74%	-81,894
SC	1,735	46.0%	-5.04%	-81,480

AL	730	41.0%	-4.14%	-77,899
VA	1,431	48.0%	-2.40%	-76,544
NJ	1,520	55.0%	-2.05%	-74,027
CT	872	58.5%	-4.19%	-66,085
MI	2,452	52.5%	-1.25%	-60,673

WA	2,123	54.9%	-2.09%	-59,705
AZ	1,859	47.0%	-2.60%	-52,391
GA	1,536	43.0%	-1.59%	-52,331
CO	2,515	49.1%	-2.02%	-42,881
IN	926	41.0%	-1.74%	-42,843

LA	1,669	44.5%	-2.19%	-42,449
UT	798	30.5%	-4.47%	-41,384
MO	2,158	47.5%	-1.40%	-38,227
MS	798	43.3%	-3.04%	-34,593
NH	1,849	55.4%	-5.05%	-34,119

NE	785	36.8%	-4.04%	-31,386
MD	1,000	57.0%	-1.03%	-24,499
KY	1,034	41.0%	-1.31%	-23,570
AR	1,402	46.6%	-2.05%	-21,638
IA	2,502	50.6%	-1.36%	-20,509

ID	559	33.5%	-3.24%	-19,358
RI	809	64.0%	-4.43%	-19,303
DE	770	58.5%	-5.14%	-19,276
VT	685	65.0%	-5.78%	-17,981
NM	1,951	51.30%	-2.25%	-17,042

WV	1,722	45.3%	-2.05%	-15,528
AK	910	40.5%	-4.89%	-15,257
NV	2,116	49.4%	-1.26%	-10,397
ME	1,968	54.7%	-1.17%	-8,682
OK	1,539	35.0%	-0.57%	-8,349

MT	640	39.8%	-1.20%	-5,384
WY	684	30.9%	-1.77%	-4,295
DC	795	91.0%	-1.57%	-3,555

To Kerry:
SD	1,495	37.8%	0.68%	2,645
HI	499	53.3%	0.71%	3,044

ND	649	34.0%	1.50%	4,692
OR	1,064	51.2%	0.40%	7,316
KS	654	35.0%	1.62%	19,283
TN	1,774	41.5%	1.03%	24,992
CA	1,919	54.0%	0.43%	53,746

TX	1,671	37.0%	1.23%	90,930
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ottozen Donating Member (92 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-19-05 10:58 PM
Response to Original message
3. We know he did it.
Now all he needs to do is confess. It will be good for his "soul".
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 12:11 AM
Response to Original message
4. Know this: The Mitofsky excuses will be blown to kingdom-come.
Edited on Thu Jan-20-05 12:14 AM by TruthIsAll
But not by me. I just crunch numbers.

There are some very smart people out there who will absolutely destroy the arguments of those who think their ridiculous explanations will hold water.

The media whores and so-called democratic pollsters who are calling us die hard conspiracy freaks have their fingers in the dike.

They cannot stand up to the experts when challenged, And they will continue to be challenged until they have nothing left to say.

The tsunami of cold, hard logic and truth will overwhelm them. You know it will be all over when they are left to wallow in contradictions of their own making.
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KingoftheJungle Donating Member (355 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 12:14 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. oooo...
Edited on Thu Jan-20-05 12:14 AM by KingoftheJungle
"The tsunami of cold, hard logic and truth will overwhelm them. You know it will be all over when they are left to wallow in contradictions of their own making."

I like that, great line.
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 12:34 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. And will there be mutant sealife washed up to shore from the depths? n/t
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 12:28 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. "when they are left to wallow in contradictions of their own making. "
Which began today (and, today, they truly evidenced that they are clueless as to how much is known about their mis-behavior starting late evening, EST, 2 Nov 2004).


BE THE BUSH OPPOSITION; 24/7


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Fly by night Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 12:34 AM
Response to Original message
8. Freeman estimates the vote migration from Kerry to Bush was 4.3 million
Edited on Thu Jan-20-05 12:36 AM by Fly by night
TIA, I'm sure you have read Freeman's revised paper and appendix. In Table 2.2 (p. 24 of his appendix), he estimates an "unexplained" shift of votes from Kerry to Bush of around 4.3 million, calculating that number based on the voting patterns of election year 2000 voters in election year 2004, as well as the voting patterns of new election year 2004 voters.

So if anything, your analysis (which still gives Kerry the presidency) may be conservative. If you see any flaws in Freeman's logic, please let me know. I think both analyses are pretty damned convincing that we wuz robbed. Now let's hold Ted Koppel down and force-feed him some hard data and good sense, flavored with patriotism and righteous indignation. Conspiracy theory, my yellow dog ass.

Folks, let's keep being the media, 'cause the high-priced corporate whores have forgotten how to be. Those among us who can distill complex info into straight-forward prose (and charts and graphs) need to do so. If anyone wants copies of my 11 slides drawn from TIA's work and others here on DU that I am using for presentations here in the Orange State, PM me with your "real" email address and I'll send you the PowerPoint slides. They make a good complement to the electionfraud2004.org slideshow.
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troubleinwinter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 12:51 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. kick
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Fly by night Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 12:54 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. Thanks for the kick. You joined DU on my birthday. n/t
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 12:55 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. Yes, my numbers are conservative.
I believe Kerry won by at least 50.8%-48.2%

That's a 2.6% margin, based on the NEP exit poll.
So it's 3.2 million votes out of 122 million.

But this does not include those who never got to vote, through disenfranchisement, long lines, etc.
There's your additional million votes.

So it's fair to estimate that Kerry really won by 51.5% - 47.5%.

The state exit polls probably understate Kerry's margin by 2%.


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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 01:18 AM
Response to Reply #8
13. True, but I think what TIA is saying is that there was a total shift of
5,000,000 votes. Take away 2.5 million from one and give 2.5 million to another and you have a 5 million vote shift.

It's simply astounding.
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 12:49 AM
Response to Original message
9. Anyone seen this yet?
http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/EvaluationofEdiso...

It's a Mitofsky PDF file that my ancient box/dial up snagged on. It may be in scoops set, but thought I'd pass it on.

TIA, thanks.
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crickets Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 01:48 AM
Response to Original message
14. As always, thank you TIA
:dem:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 08:20 AM
Response to Original message
15. Mitofsky said 26 states deviated to Bush, 4 to Kerry. Wrong.
Edited on Thu Jan-20-05 08:21 AM by TruthIsAll
30 states deviated to Bush beyond 2.0%, 23 beyond the MOE.
Not ONE state deviated to Kerry beyond 2.0% or the MOE.
The odds:
**************** 1 in Infinity *******************



Overall, 43 states deviated to Bush (incl. DC)
The odds:
*********** 1 in 2.9 million *****************



Mitofsky doesn't even know his own numbers.
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count_alucard Donating Member (105 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-05 08:30 AM
Response to Original message
16. worthless numbers
they can be changed at will anytime to favor the Bush KKKlan. And Kerry just rolls over.
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