3. You mean to tell me that, no matter how you cut it,
Kerry probably WON!? That I have a better shot at winning the lottery than Bush did of winning the election? That I have a better shot at being the queen of England (even WITH a sex change)? That astronauts probably DID land on the moon? What are you gonna tell me next? Sheesh...
To: C Kerry CC: John Conyers; C Arnebeck; J Bonifaz and others
When you couple all we now know from WA, TX, PN, FL, OH, NC, NM, NV, IN, ......, in terms of vapor-ballot device fraud; to all the forms of disenfranchisement now documented in numerous states; to the following probability analysis -- YOUR BROTHER WON. _________________________________________________
TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Sun Jan-16-05 10:04 AM Original message THREE PROBABILITIES
Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 10:20 AM by TruthIsAll I. Bush National Vote (50.73%) vs. National Exit Poll (48.22%):
Margin of Error (MOE) = 1.0% Standard Deviation = .01/1.96
Probability of 2.51% deviation: 1-NORMDIST 0.5073,0.4822,0.01/1.96,TRUE)
Probability = 0.00000043424 Odds: 1 in 2,302,876
II. 43 of 50 states deviate from exit poll to vote tally in favor of Bush:
Probability of any given state: 0.50 Probability of at least 43 states: 1-BINOMDIST(42,50,0.50,TRUE)
Probability = 0.000000104934 Odds: 1 in 9,529,811
III. 20 of 50 states deviate beyond MOE from exit poll to vote tally in favor of Bush:
Probability of any given state (at 95% confidence): .025 Probability of at least 20 states: 1-BINOMDIST(19,50,0.025,TRUE)
Probability = 0.000000000000000000000000000000 Odds: 1 in ?????
_____________________________________________________ WE HAVE NO ELECTION
It is time for the Senator to step forward and denounce the fraud and disenfranchisment. It is time to form 'The Bush Opposition' and save our American democracy before it is totally destroyed.
20. WEIGHTED BY PARTY ID, THE ODDS ARE 1 IN 303 MILLION
MIX Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 38% 9% 90% 1% 3.4% 34.2% 0.4%
Rep 35% 92% 7% 0% 32.2% 2.5% 0.0%
Ind 27% 45% 52% 2% 12.2% 14.0% 0.5%
100% 47.77% 50.69% 0.92%
Probability 3.29447E-09 or 1 in 303,538,508
That Bush would go from 47.77% to 50.73%
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