Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

THREE PROBABILITIES

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 01:04 PM
Original message
THREE PROBABILITIES
Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 01:20 PM by TruthIsAll
I. Bush National Vote (50.73%) vs. National Exit Poll (48.22%):

Margin of Error (MOE) = 1.0%
Standard Deviation = .01/1.96

Probability of 2.51% deviation:
1-NORMDIST 0.5073,0.4822,0.01/1.96,TRUE)

Probability = 0.00000043424
Odds: 1 in 2,302,876

II. 43 of 50 states deviate from exit poll to vote tally in favor of Bush:

Probability of any given state: 0.50
Probability of at least 43 states:
1-BINOMDIST(42,50,0.50,TRUE)

Probability = 0.000000104934
Odds: 1 in 9,529,811

III. 20 of 50 states deviate beyond MOE from exit poll to vote tally in favor of Bush:

Probability of any given state (at 95% confidence): .025
Probability of at least 20 states:
1-BINOMDIST(19,50,0.025,TRUE)

Probability = 0.000000000000000000000000000000
Odds: 1 in ?????

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
DELUSIONAL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 01:07 PM
Response to Original message
1. Kick
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 05:11 PM
Response to Reply #1
15. CORRECTION: 42 STATES DEVIATED TO BUSH. ODDS: 1 in 1.7 million

Probability of at least 42 states:
= 1-BINOMDIST(41,50,0.5,TRUE)

Probability = 0.00000058178
ODDS: 1 in 1,718,869

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Demit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 01:19 PM
Response to Original message
2. You're one of them probability theorists, aintcha?
Nice work, TIA. Glad to see you're still keepin on. Someday it will all come out, and I hope your work is cited therein.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Joe Chi Minh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. He's not a theorist, though,
DemItAllAnyway. Probabilities can range from slight to utterly compelling to certainty, and its not a matter of conjecture, but of mathematics; which is the most certain of scientific disciplines.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
IndyPriest Donating Member (685 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 01:32 PM
Response to Original message
3. You mean to tell me that, no matter how you cut it,
Kerry probably WON!? That I have a better shot at winning the lottery than Bush did of winning the election? That I have a better shot at being the queen of England (even WITH a sex change)? That astronauts probably DID land on the moon? What are you gonna tell me next? Sheesh...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
fooj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 02:24 PM
Response to Original message
4. TIA- Are you circulating these numbers within the power circles?
Whovever that may be. You have worked so hard to prove this election fraud...I'd hate to see your efforts ignored. Damn. You are good...thanks for being our #1 numbers man!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #4
16. No. I leave that to Baiman, Simon, Freeman et al.
Let's face it.
Everyone in Congress knows it was stolen.
Including Kerry.
They are not that stupid.

They know all about polls.
They know all about the "glitches".
They know all about the BBV.

There is nothing in my posts they are not already aware of.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 03:35 PM
Response to Original message
5. TIA, Try a little experiment
Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 03:39 PM by Bill Bored
1. Find the Dem/Rep ratios from the 2004 party affiliation question in the earlier poll report you are using from 11/2.

2. Replace ONLY these 2 numbers (e.g., Dem 38%, Repb 35%), with the ones from the final, adjusted version released the afternoon of 11/3.
DO NOT switch ANY votes or make ANY other weighting changes.

3. Recalculate the election results using the following formula:

New Kerry Vote % = Old Kerry Vote %*((New Dem %*Kerry Dem Vote %) + (New Repb %*Kerry Repb Vote %) + (New Indep/Other %*Kerry Indep/Other Vote %))

New Bush Vote % = Old Bush Vote %*((New Dem %*Bush Dem Vote %) + (New Rep %*Bush Repb Vote %) + (New Indep/Other %*Bush Indep/Other Vote %))

4. Recalculate your probabilities based on the results in #3 above.

If you don't want to spend too much time on this, just try it with some swing states and see how it changes the odds.

Have fun!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #5
10. Is this what you want to see?
Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 04:33 PM by TruthIsAll
Bush Final Percentage	50.73%						


		HORIZONTAL			WEIGHTED		
PARTY ID	MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Democrat 	38%	9%	90%	1%	3.4%	34.2%	0.4%
Republican 	36%	92%	7%	0%	33.1%	2.5%	0.0%
Independent	26%	45%	52%	2%	11.7%	13.5%	0.5%
	100%				      48.24%	50.24%	0.90%
				Probability	5.30098E-07	or  1 in	1,886,445

		HORIZONTAL			WEIGHTED		
PARTY ID	MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Democrat 	38%	9%	90%	1%	3.4%	34.2%	0.4%
Republican 	35%	92%	7%	0%	32.2%	2.5%	0.0%
Independent	27%	45%	52%	2%	12.2%	14.0%	0.5%
	100%				      47.77%	50.69%	0.92%
				Probability	3.29447E-09	or  1 in	303,538,508

PARTY ID	MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Democrat 	37%	9%	90%	1%	3.3%	33.3%	0.4%
Republican 	36%	92%	7%	0%	33.1%	2.5%	0.0%
Independent	27%	45%	52%	2%	12.2%	14.0%	0.5%
	100%				      48.60%	49.86%	0.91%
				Probability	1.49214E-05	or  1 in	67,018

PARTY ID	MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Democrat 	36%	9%	90%	1%	3.2%	32.4%	0.4%
Republican 	38%	92%	7%	0%	35.0%	2.7%	0.0%
Independent	26%	45%	52%	2%	11.7%	13.5%	0.5%
	100%				      49.90%	48.58%	0.88%
				Probability	0.051889781	or  1 in	19

PARTY ID	MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Democrat 	37%	9%	90%	1%	3.3%	33.3%	0.4%
Republican 	37%	92%	7%	0%	34.0%	2.6%	0.0%
Independent	26%	45%	52%	2%	11.7%	13.5%	0.5%
	100%				      49.07%	49.41%	0.89%
				Probability	0.000569824	or  1 in	1,755

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Darkhawk32 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 04:30 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. Is that table representing different political party "weightings"? n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 04:34 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Yes, I have just started a new thread with this analysis. n/t
.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
super simian Donating Member (292 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 03:43 PM
Response to Original message
6. Kick!
:kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DearAbby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. OUTSTANDING TIA ...Send your work to Conyers.
All of it has to be in the hands of those that are going to investigate this. Thank you for your very hard work, a true patriot.

:)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 03:50 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Kick for Conyers!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 04:27 PM
Response to Original message
11. "your brother won; we have no election"
To: C Kerry
CC: John Conyers; C Arnebeck; J Bonifaz and others

When you couple all we now know from WA, TX, PN, FL, OH, NC, NM, NV, IN, ......, in terms of vapor-ballot device fraud; to all the forms of disenfranchisement now documented in numerous states; to the following probability analysis -- YOUR BROTHER WON.
_________________________________________________


TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Sun Jan-16-05 10:04 AM
Original message
THREE PROBABILITIES

Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 10:20 AM by TruthIsAll
I. Bush National Vote (50.73%) vs. National Exit Poll (48.22%):

Margin of Error (MOE) = 1.0%
Standard Deviation = .01/1.96

Probability of 2.51% deviation:
1-NORMDIST 0.5073,0.4822,0.01/1.96,TRUE)

Probability = 0.00000043424
Odds: 1 in 2,302,876

II. 43 of 50 states deviate from exit poll to vote tally in favor of Bush:

Probability of any given state: 0.50
Probability of at least 43 states:
1-BINOMDIST(42,50,0.50,TRUE)

Probability = 0.000000104934
Odds: 1 in 9,529,811

III. 20 of 50 states deviate beyond MOE from exit poll to vote tally in favor of Bush:

Probability of any given state (at 95% confidence): .025
Probability of at least 20 states:
1-BINOMDIST(19,50,0.025,TRUE)

Probability = 0.000000000000000000000000000000
Odds: 1 in ?????

_____________________________________________________
WE HAVE NO ELECTION

It is time for the Senator to step forward and denounce the fraud and disenfranchisment. It is time to form 'The Bush Opposition' and save our American democracy before it is totally destroyed.

Thank you,
xxxxxxxxxxxxx



"Bush Owns It: Let's Purge It"



Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 06:38 PM
Response to Reply #11
17. Nice job, UL!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 04:37 PM
Response to Original message
14. TIA -- Deep Throat of Votergate
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 08:14 PM
Response to Reply #14
19. Come on, David. I know no more than anyone here.
Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 08:18 PM by TruthIsAll
I just crunch numbers.

Its like a souflee:
Open Excel
Copy and paste or manually input the data.
Set up the tables.
Calculate the probabilities: Normdist and Binomdist
Mix in some Graphics

That's it.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 06:40 PM
Response to Original message
18. Another great, easy to share gem. Thanks.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-18-05 01:41 AM
Response to Reply #18
20. WEIGHTED BY PARTY ID, THE ODDS ARE 1 IN 303 MILLION
		HORIZONTAL			WEIGHTED		
PARTY ID	
     MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem 	38%	9%	90%	1%	3.4%	34.2%	0.4%
Rep 	35%	92%	7%	0%	32.2%	2.5%	0.0%
Ind	27%	45%	52%	2%	12.2%	14.0%	0.5%
	100%				47.77%	50.69%	0.92%
				
Probability	3.29447E-09	or  1 in 303,538,508

That Bush would go from 47.77% to 50.73%
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Sat Apr 20th 2019, 01:12 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC