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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 06:47 PM
Original message
Ohio numbers support claims of Triad fraud
(My son and I have posted this before, but in light of recent events I think it carries new significance.)

I looked at the difference in votes (in each Ohio county) from 2004 and what would have been expected if Kerry had obtained the same percentage of votes in the county as Gore had in 2000.


Here's what I found:

Electronic voting:
38,377 more Kerry votes than expected, average of 5,539 per county

Optical scan:
323 more Kerry votes than expected, average of 27 per county

Punch card other:
62,406 more Kerry votes than expected, average of 2,229 per county

***Punch cards by Triad:
13,369 LESS Kerry votes than expected, average of 326 less per county

Total non-Triad: 101,506 more Kerry votes than expected, average of 2,160 per county

So, if the Triad counties had voted (in comparison with 2000) similarly to all the other counties combined, there would have been a net of 2,486 extra Kerry votes per each of the 41 counties, providing a net Kerry gain of 101,926 extra net Kerry votes.

This analysis assumes that there was no fraud in any of the other (non-Triad) counties. If there was fraud in other counties, not only would that count have to be added to the Kerry vote, but that would indicate more votes for Kerry in the Triad counties as well.

The above analysis means is that if massive election fraud took place in Ohio, it probably involved mostly the Triad government punch card machines. These machines were not used in any other state. Of course, there could have been fraud in other counties as well (If the exit polls were accurate that would mean Kerry winning Ohio by over 260,000 votes, which is a lot more than I calculated here.)

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corbett Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 06:53 PM
Response to Original message
1. The Facts Are Inescapable - Thanx!
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Higans Donating Member (819 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 08:59 PM
Response to Reply #1
26. Triad machines were used in other states.
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cavanaghjam Donating Member (355 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:03 PM
Response to Original message
2. This is good work. My thanks also. nt
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electropop Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 02:54 PM
Response to Reply #2
64. Yes great work n/t
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cilla4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:03 PM
Response to Original message
3. Simplified analysis
Finally - a statistical analysis I can follow! Which means - maybe "even" MSM can, as well. (Maybe the intense, academic analyses we've been seeing here are "too much" for MSM and that's why they haven't picked it up!).

Let me digest and state back to you in a sound-byte, to test my understanding: the Kerry vote on all machines except Triads exceeded Gore's percentage in '00, but on the Triads, Kerry received a lower proportion.

How simple can THAT be?
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ginnyinWI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:14 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. I second that thought
I'm not uneducated, but kind of glaze over when confronted with too many statistics. Just put it in English and I am good to go.
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You do not need that Donating Member (24 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:22 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. In other words
Could you say:

In total Kerry performed better than Gore everywhere else in Ohio but in the Triad counties.

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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:35 PM
Response to Reply #6
11. Yes, that is correct
But see post # 9 for a more complete explanation.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:33 PM
Response to Reply #3
9. Yes, that is correct
But also keep this in mind: The exit polls in 2004 indicated that Kerry would exceed Gore's vote margin in Ohio by more than 8%. And if the exit polls were reasonably accurate, that means that Kerry should have done better than he did even in most of those counties where he exceeded Gore's performance (but not more than by 8%). In fact, Kerry exceeded Gore's performance by 8% (as predicted by the exit polls) or more in only one of Ohio's 88 counties.

So my take on it is this: Most of the fraud took place in the counties that used Triad machines, but probably fraud took place in other counties as well.
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:14 PM
Response to Original message
5. Thank you; I hope you have mailed to Congressman Conyers...
....and others. If you do not have the time, I'd be happy to do it for you.

And, obviously, those that would be involved in what appears to have happened here, certainly had multiple mechanisms available to them in all counties in all States (unless all the precincts in some county counted ballots manually and entered the tallies in a paper ledger and both the ballots and paper ledger are available for subsequent investigation).

Peace.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 08:51 PM
Response to Reply #5
24. I haven't
I had been working with Voters Unite on this issue (which is where I obtained the information on voting machines by county). I sent them this analysis a few weeks ago, and they seemed excited about it, and I assumed from their response that they were distributing it to those who needed the information.

But please feel free to send it to whomever you want. If you would like to include my contact information so that I can answer questions, please e-mail me.

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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 10:43 PM
Response to Reply #24
29. Sent you a pm with my direct contact info (n/t)
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 11:15 PM
Response to Reply #29
33. Thanks a lot
I sent you my contact information
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 01:16 AM
Response to Reply #33
38. Done. Prepared a summary document. & cc'd you. Thank you (n/t)
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RevCheesehead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 08:57 PM
Response to Reply #5
25. Don't forget Keith Olbermann
gratuitous hearts added for Crispini: :loveya:Keith
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 10:44 PM
Response to Reply #25
30. He's on my standard distribution list; thank you (n/t)
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:25 PM
Response to Original message
7. Yes, but wouldn't Kerry have gained a LARGER percentage?
Does anyone have a "feel" for Ohio's enthusiasm for Kerry in 2004 compared to the enthusiasm for Gore in 2000?

Have you compared your numbers to newly registered voters, and then compared new Democrats to new Repubs in Ohio?

I really like the way you presented your numbers. It was extremely easy to follow for those of us who are statistically challenged, and it makes it easy to explain to others.

:thumbsup:
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:40 PM
Response to Reply #7
12. And those massive numbers of newly registered likely dem voters
should have given Kerry an even bigger margin.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 08:23 PM
Response to Reply #12
20. Yes, they should have
And I believe that that bigger margin was reflected in the final (after 1:00 a.m.) Ohio exit poll, which showed Kerry winning Ohio by 4.2%/
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #7
14. Ohio had huge registration of likely dem voters, ACT, ACORN, VoteMob
League of Pissed Off Voters, Young Voter Alliance, Kerry campaign

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You do not need that Donating Member (24 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:50 PM
Response to Reply #7
17. Ohio does not register voters by party
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KerryOn Donating Member (899 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 08:49 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. Yes, This is true
I live in Columbus, and they do not register voters by party. However, based on past elections thee are areas that are dominated by Dem's or repubs. And of course the known Dem areas is where we saw most, if not all of the voter suppression.
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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 11:57 PM
Response to Reply #17
35. That would definitely make them a candidate state for fraud, then. If
no one knows what party a person is registered with...how does won figure out who voted for what until after they voted? What if the fraud has been going on election after election?

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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 08:29 PM
Response to Reply #7
21. Thank you
And yes, I believe that Kerry should have won by an even larger percentage in the good majority of Ohio counties. I don't have a "feel" for Ohio, but I think that the exit poll, which was posted on CNN after 1:00 a.m. Wednesday morning, showing Kerry winning by 4.2%, is very telling (Gore lost Ohio by 4%, so the difference is 8.2%). Therefore, 8.2% is what Kerry should have beat Gore's margins by in the average county if the exit poll was accurate.
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mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #7
59. Ohio perceptions Kerry vs Gore
In my circles, which are definitely left leaning, in Columbus Ohio, there was definitely much stronger support for Kerry over Gore, especially after John Kerry's life got closer scrutiny, plus don't forget we had a much stronger ABB sentiment in 2004 that was reflected in the huge increase in voter registrations.
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KerryOn Donating Member (899 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:33 PM
Response to Original message
8. Do you have a chart
.. that would show me the different types of machines used for each county, that you could share with me? I have the split for counties using punch cards, but nothing designating Triad vs other punch card machines.

Thanks!
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:42 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. All Ohio counties, population, vendor, method, comma delimited
"# Vendors","State","County","Population","Vendor","Voting Method"
1, oh,"adams",28026,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"allen",108241,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Optical Scan: Precinct-Based"
1, oh,"ashland",53749,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Optical Scan: Central Count"
1, oh,"ashtabula",103120,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"athens",64380,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"auglaize",46740,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","E-Voting: Other"
1, oh,"belmont",69636,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"brown",43807,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"butler",343207,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"carroll",29599,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"champaign",39544,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"clark",143351,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"clermont",185799,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Optical Scan: Central Count"
1, oh,"clinton",41756,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"columbiana",111523,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"coshocton",37132,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Optical Scan: Central Count"
1, oh,"crawford",46091,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"cuyahoga",1363888,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"darke",52960,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"defiance",39054,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"delaware",132797,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"erie",78709,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Optical Scan: Central Count"
1, oh,"fairfield",132549,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"fayette",28158,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"franklin",1088944,"Danaher Controls (Danaher Guardian)","E-Voting: Other"
1, oh,"fulton",42446,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"gallia",31398,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"geauga",93941,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Optical Scan: Central Count"
1, oh,"greene",151257,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"guernsey",41362,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"hamilton",823472,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"hancock",73133,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Optical Scan: Central Count"
1, oh,"hardin",31608,"Diebold Election Systems","Optical Scan: Central Count"
1, oh,"harrison",15967,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"henry",29318,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"highland",41963,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"hocking",28644,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"holmes",40681,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"huron",60231,"unknown","Punch Card"
1, oh,"jackson",33074,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"jefferson",71888,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"knox",56930,"MicroVote General Corporation","E-Voting: Other"
1, oh,"lake",228878,"Sequoia Voting Systems, Inc.","E-Voting: Other"
1, oh,"lawrence",62550,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"licking",150634,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"logan",46411,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"lorain",291164,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"lucas",454216,"Diebold Election Systems","Optical Scan: Central Count"
1, oh,"madison",40624,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"mahoning",251660,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","E-Voting: Touchscreen"
1, oh,"marion",66396,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"medina",161641,"Fidlar Doubleday","Punch Card"
1, oh,"meigs",23242,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"mercer",40933,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"miami",100230,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Optical Scan: Central Count"
1, oh,"monroe",14927,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"montgomery",552187,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"morgan",14843,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"morrow",33568,"Fidlar Doubleday","Punch Card"
1, oh,"muskingum",85423,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"noble",14054,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"ottawa",41192,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Optical Scan: Central Count"
1, oh,"paulding",19665,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"perry",35074,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"pickaway",51723,"MicroVote General Corporation","E-Voting: Other"
1, oh,"pike",28194,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"portage",154870,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"preble",42417,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"putnam",34754,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"richland",128267,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"ross",74424,"MicroVote General Corporation","E-Voting: Other"
1, oh,"sandusky",61753,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Optical Scan: Central Count"
1, oh,"scioto",77453,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"seneca",57734,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"shelby",48566,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"stark",377519,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"summit",546773,"Voting Technologies International","Punch Card"
1, oh,"trumbull",221785,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"tuscarawas",91706,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"union",43750,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"van wert",29277,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"vinton",13231,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"warren",181743,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"washington",62505,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Optical Scan: Central Count"
1, oh,"wayne",113121,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"williams",38802,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
1, oh,"wood",123020,"Triad Governmental Systems, Inc.","Punch Card"
1, oh,"wyandot",22826,"Election Systems and Software, Inc. (ES&S)","Punch Card"
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 08:20 PM
Response to Reply #8
19. Does Rosebud's information answer your question? n/t
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KerryOn Donating Member (899 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #19
22. Yes, Just what I was looking for Thanks! n/t
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Higans Donating Member (819 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 09:10 PM
Response to Reply #8
27. I got your chart right here:
Edited on Sat Dec-25-04 09:12 PM by Higans


taken from www.truthout.org
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MarkusQ Donating Member (516 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:34 PM
Response to Original message
10. Instead of per county...
...or maybe in addition, could you express the difference in terms of percentage of the total vote in those counties? Also, how consistant is the pattern at the county level? Do all of the counties in each group show the same pattern, or does it only emerge when you look at the totals?

Having that sort of picture will make comparisons more meaningful, and is part of what will be needed to counter the inevitable rebutal if your main point is ever commonly accepted (that being the counter-claim that "these numbers prove Kerry supporters rigged the electronic and optical-scan counties").

--MarkusQ
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:47 PM
Response to Reply #10
15. In general Triad had the smaller population punch card counties, ES&S
had the more urban counties. I say in general, because some suburban GOP strongholds were ES&S and some larger counties with a city such as Montgomery were Triad.

Warren County the lockdown county was Triad.

Greene County the county of the unlocked BoE is home to Triad in Xenia, OH.
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 07:48 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. And Triad sold punch card machines with Palm Beach butterfly ballots
on Ebay in 2000. It was pitched as something repugnants would enjoy owning.
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HR_Pufnstuf Donating Member (782 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 01:47 PM
Response to Reply #16
44. Triad is selling the butterfly ballots right now.

Triad GSI Selling Butterfly Ballots

http://www.triadgsi.com /

Click on the small "www.electiononthe.net " under:

"Have you seen our "one-stop" place for election information?

Go to:
http://www.electionsonthe.net

Click the tiny voting machine icon yields:

---

http://www.psephoscorp.com/butterflyballot.htm

Own a piece of Political history!

With this actual Votomatic Punchcard Vote Recorder,
you can create your own dimpled, hanging or pregnant CHAD!

This authentic voting machine is shipped with a replica of the infamous Palm Beach County "Butterfly" Ballot printed by an elections company to look exactly like the real thing. Each order includes 10 punch-card ballots so that you can explore the system yourself. This will truly be a valuable conversation piece to represent this memorable election. This vote recorder is a genuine Votomatic Vote Recorder identical to the voting devices used in Florida and has actually been used in elections.

The Butterfly Ballot set includes the following:

1 Votomatic Vote Recorder

1 Replica of the Infamous Palm Beach County Butterfly Ballot Page

1 Voting Stylus, and

10 Virgin Punchcard ballots.

Own yours today for only $99.95!
Includes USPS priority shipping in the continental United States


Click "Buy Now"
http://www.psephoscorp.com/butterflyballot.htm


--- yields ---

Mail this form along with payment to:

The Psephos Corporation
360 S. Monroe Street
Xenia, Ohio 45385
(937) 376-xxx

Bottom here:
http://www.psephoscorp.com/buynow.htm

---

Note that the address of Triad is 358 S. Monroe, 1 door over to Psephos address above, and the Rapps list Psephos on www.rapps.org

The Rapps are selling the Butterfly Ballots here too:
http://www.xeniashopper.com/PsephosFLkit.htm

There is an empty bulletin board at www.xeniashopper.com too.

http://www.xeniashopper.com/Forum/forum_topics.asp?FID=...
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 08:16 PM
Response to Reply #10
18. Good point
By percentage of the total vote in the counties, the 41 Triad counties were -0.95% for Kerry compared to Gore. All of the other 47 counties combined were + 2.51%. Calculating it this way (and I agree that this is a better way to present the data), Kerry would pick up only 48,746 votes if the Triad counties had the same percent gain as all of the other counties combined.

However, as I point out in post # 9, above, I believe that the more salient point is that, according to the exit polls, Kerry should have been averaging more than an 8% advantage over Gore in the average Ohio County (He beat Bush in Ohio in the exit polls by 4.2%, whereas Gore lost Ohio by 4%.) This actually happened in only one of the 88 Ohio counties.

Therefore, my belief is that, although most of the fraud took place in the Triad counties, there was probably also widespread fraud in the other counties as well.

In other words, I don't expect this analysis to stand alone by any means. But when taken together with the exit polls (which predicted an overal Kerry victory by a wide margin) and the widespread identification of irregularities in the Triad counties, I feel that this analysis offers good supporting evidence.

With regard to your question about the consistency of the pattern, the answer is that it was not very consistent. I was just reporting the totals. More specifically, if you look at those counties where the Kerry relative deficit was 2.5% or greater, 15 out of those 24 counties used Triad machines, wehereas only 26 of the other 64 counties used Triad machines.
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MarkusQ Donating Member (516 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 09:29 PM
Response to Reply #18
28. So (linking in ideas from other threads)...

Is it possible that there is information to be had in the distribution of Triad counties based on how far they deviated?

In other words, if the 15 Triad counties that had a relative deficit greater than 2.5% all had about the same deficit, and the 26 that had less than 2.5% all had about the same deficit (and that was new what we would expect from looking at the non-Triad counties), it would be one kind of interesting.

On the other hand, if the deficit seemed to be a smooth function of county size, that would be another kind of interesting.

Or if there was a pattern at the precinct level that could be linked to co-located precincts or ballot order, that would be yet another kind of interesting.

--MarkusQ
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 11:02 PM
Response to Reply #28
32. Distribution by county
First, there is no neat cutoff as you describe. The range among the Triad counties goes from 7.2% up to 9.9% down, with all gradations in between.

There is absolutely no relationship betweeen total vote and the discrepancy between Kerry and Gore performances.

I agree that it could be very interesting to look at this at the precinct level, but I could not obtain that data.
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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 10:53 PM
Response to Original message
31. Time For Change -- Three comments...
I have recopied your analysis in several different threads. I attributed it to a post by EOTE -- I am guessing that this must be your son.

You might want to check out this similar analysis...
<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... >

Also check out this critique of your analysis by MuleThree. His argument is that because the Triad counties had smaller populations than non-Triad counties "if you took the non-Triad percentages and applied them to the Triad counties then Bush would lose 25,000 votes and Kerry would pick up 25,000 votes." But, because, "The non-triad counties are larger and include more urban areas and minorities, there are plausible explanations" .
<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... >

My thought is that because the counties implicated in switching votes from Kerry to Bush in Arnebeck's suit are a mix of Triad (18), ES&S (16), and Fidlar (2) counties your analysis may actually be less powerful as a result of grouping counties as Triad & non-Triad.

The Triad counties implicated in Arnebeck's suit are Brown, Champaign, Clinton, Darke, Defiance, Greene, Highland, Holmes, Logan, Madison, Mercer, Miami, Pickaway, Preble, Putnam, Union, Van Wert and Warren. ES&S Counties are Adams, Allen, Auglaize, Butler, Clermont, Crawford, Delaware, Fairfield, Geauga, Hamilton, Hancock, Lawrence, Licking, Richland, Shelby, Williams. Fidlar: Medina & Morrow.

If you have the data close at hand, I would be interested in knowing whether the implicated Triad counties differ in Kerry/Gore votes as compared to the non-implicated Triad counties? (I think that 'implicated counties' in Arnebeck's suit are all counties in which John Kerry received at least 1,000 fewer votes than C. Ellen Connally - Dem candidate for Supreme Court).

The counties implicated in switching votes from Connally to Moyer in Arnebeck's original suit are also a mix ES&S (8); Triad (6); Danaher (1); Diebold (1). The six Triad counties are Ashtabula, Jefferson, Lorain, Montgomery, Portage, and Summit. ES&S is in Athens, Cuyahoga, Erie, Mahoning, Ottawa, Sandusky, Stark, and Trumbull. Danaher is in Franklin; Diebold is in Lucas. Huron is also listed in the lawsuit, but I can't tell from VerifiedVoting.org what type of voting system they have.

:kick:

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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 12:18 AM
Response to Reply #31
36. Thank you IndyOp
Yes, EOTE is my son. Thank you for posting this analysis.

If you check out my post # 18 in this thread you can see that I re-did the analysis using percentages (as MuleThree did), in response to a post by MarcusQ, and came up with something very similar to what MuleThree obtained (48,746 vote spread). I agree that this is a better way to do it.

Nevertheless, as I also suggest in post # 18, I believe that the exit poll information in combination with this analysis suggests that there was probably vote fraud in the non-Triad counties as well, but more in the Triad counties. If one makes the additional assumption that the exit polls were reasonably accurate, the 48,746 vote spread in the Triad counties would become much greater (but I made no assumption about exit polls in this analysis).

I don't quite agree that the analysis is less powerful because I grouped the counties as Triad vs. non-Triad, but I don't fully follow your thought on that issue, and in any event, I don't feel that this is a terribly powerful analysis anyhow, by itself. Rather, I feel that it is the exit poll data that really makes a good case for vote fraud, and this analysis, combined with the exit poll data, suggests that probably most of the vote fraud occurred in the Triad counties.
Here is a more specific break down by group:
Triad punch cards -- -0.95%
Other punch cards -- +2.43%
Optic scans -- +0.05%
Electronic voting -- +4.52%

Here are the counties that exhibited the greatest discrepancies in favor of Gore compared to Kerry (minus signs designate better Gore than Kerry performance):
Shelby PC other -12.1%
Van Wert PC Triad -9.9%
Mercer PC Triad -9.7%
Darke PC Triad -8.5%
Lawrence PC other -7.0%
Miami Optic scan -6.9%
Clinton PC Triad -6.7%
Auglaize Electronic -5.9%
Bellmont PC other -5.8%
Jackson PC Triad -5.5%
Paulding PC Triad -5.0%
Harrison PC Triad -5.0%
Marion PC Triad -4.7%
Hardin Optic scan -4.2%
Champaign PC Triad -4.1%
Wyandot PC other -3.6%
Highland PC Triad -3.5%
Preble PC Triad -3.5%
Clermont Optic scan -3.2%
Defiance PC Triad -3.2%
Madison PC Triad -3.0%
Clark PC Triad -2.7%
Logan PC Triad -2.6%
Ross Electronic -2.6%

One last point: To expand on my earlier argument for consideration of this data in combination with the exit polls: The exit polls after 1:00 a.m. showed Kerry winning Ohio by 4.2%. Gore lost Ohio by 4.0%. That's a difference in favor of Kerry of 8.2%. So if the exit polls were accurate, that would mean that Kerry should perform in the average county by 8.2% better than Gore. Yet, all of the above noted counties are characterized by Gore outperforming Kerry. The overall discrepancy in these counties would then range from 10.8% to 20.3%.
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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 01:10 PM
Response to Reply #36
41. Thanks for your reply...
Would you be willing to post your Gore/Kerry discrepancies for all 88 Ohio counties?

I think your analysis is effective in pointing to counties in which fraud occurred. It doesn't assess the extent of the fraud, but it does indicate where we should be directing our attention.

One important critique of the analysis is that because Triad counties tend to be 'less urban' than ES&S counties (for instance) the difference in the Gore/Kerry discrepancy is due to differences in county size (and thus population voting preferences). One way to get at this criticism is to compare two types of Triad counties, similar in size and socioeconomic profile, to see if the differ in Gore/Kerry discrepancy. My first thought was to compare Triad counties that Arnebeck has implicated in fraud and Triad counties not implicated by Arnebeck.

:kick:
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 01:54 PM
Response to Reply #41
46. Yes, I agree with you
I'll address your questions and concerns later today, as I don't have time to do it right now.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 06:29 PM
Response to Reply #41
49. Response to your ideas
I was going to say that I believe that my analysis does provide some supporting evidence for vote fraud in general (I'm unclear as to whether or not your post is disputing that), although the main evidence is the exit polls. I would have based that on the fact that in the absence of vote fraud I would expect the discrepancies between the Gore and Kerry margins to be reasonably evenly distributed between the different types of voting machines. Yet, statistical analysis provided some evidence that the distribution is not even (This was somewhat ambiguous: ANOVA analysis was not statistically significant, yet non-parametric tests such as the Wilcoxian rank sum test and chi square Mantel Hantzel test were borderline statistically significant ) This in combination with the voting irregularities found with the Triad counties made me feel that the difference in Gore-Kerry discrepancies between the Triad and other machines offerred some support to the vote fraud theory.

But then I took your advice and did the ANOVA analysis (for all 88 counties) while controlling for county size (i.e., total 2004 vote), and there was a very strong corellation between county size and Gore/Kerry discrepancy (F=6.3, P<.001). Strangely, the corellation between county size and Gore/Kerry discrepancy held up when looking at the 47 non-Triad counties alone, but there was no correlation when looking at the Triad counties alone (maybe because they were too small.)

I'm not sure what all this means. In part, the interpretation of all this depends on whether parametric or non-parametric tests are most appropriate in this circumstance, and I'm not sure what to say about that. Obviously county size is highly related to the Gore/Kerry discrepancy -- but I can't fathom why that would be the case. Why would county size cause the percent of the Democratic vote to change so much between 2000 and 2004?

Anyhow, here are the Gore/Kerry discrepancies for all 88 counties, with the negative values favoring Gore, and the positive values favoring Kerry:
SHELBY -0.1208!
VAN WERT -0.0988!
MERCER -0.0966!
DARKE -0.0853!
LAWRENCE -0.0702!
MIAMI -0.0694!
CLINTON -0.0669!
AUGLAIZE -0.0586!
BELMONT -0.0577!
JACKSON -0.0551!
PAULDING -0.0505!
HARRISON -0.0502!
MARION -0.0466!
HARDIN -0.0416!
CHAMPAIGN -0.0413!
WYANDOT -0.0359!
HIGHLAND -0.0349!
PREBLE -0.0347!
CLERMONT -0.032!
DEFIANCE -0.0319!
MADISON -0.0295!
CLARK -0.027!
LOGAN -0.0265!
ROSS -0.0263!
MORROW -0.025!
JEFFERSON -0.024!
BROWN -0.0239!
COLUMBIANA -0.0228!
BUTLER -0.0225!
GUERNSEY -0.0214!
GREENE -0.0186!
SANDUSKY -0.0185!
UNION -0.0177!
GALLIA -0.0169!
OTTAWA -0.0168!
WARREN -0.0156!
TUSCARAWAS -0.0149!
CRAWFORD -0.0142!
WILLIAMS -0.0141!
PUTNAM -0.0125!
RICHLAND -0.0115!
TRUMBULL -0.0106!
LICKING -0.0105!
MUSKINGUM -0.0101!
HANCOCK -0.0096!
PICKAWAY -0.0072!
MONTGOMERY -0.0038!
FAYETTE -0.003!
MAHONING -0.0024!
PIKE -0.0009!
ADAMS 0.0009!
SENECA 0.0022!
HENRY 0.005!
PERRY 0.0066!
FAIRFIELD 0.0078!
HOLMES 0.0104!
FULTON 0.0108!
ALLEN 0.0121!
LUCAS 0.01255!
PORTAGE 0.01289!
NOBLE 0.0139!
LORAINE 0.01641!
ASHTABULA 0.01732!
ERIE 0.02225!
WOOD 0.0249!
SCIOTO 0.0251!
WASHINGTON 0.0254!
MEDINA 0.0256!
LAKE 0.0263!
ASHLAND 0.0286!
SUMMIT 0.03182!
STARK 0.03357!
HURON 0.0342!
MONROE 0.03532!
KNOX 0.0354!
DELAWARE 0.0359!
COYAHOGA 0.03742!
WAYNE 0.0375!
GEAUGA 0.0376!
VINTON 0.0422!
COSHOKTON 0.0422!
MEIGS 0.0472!
CARROLL 0.0543!
HOCKING 0.0618!
HAMILTON 0.0651!
MORGAN 0.0719!
FRANKLIN 0.07322!
ATHENS 0.1284!

I haven't compared this with the counties implicated by Arnebeck. Do you think that would be useful?

One thing of interest is that Hocking County, which I believe is the infamous county where a Triad official was said to have tried to make sure that the computer and hand counts matched, is the second out of 41 Triad counties most favorable to Kerry, compared to Gore. Could that mean that this whole incident was a red herring, designed to get us to take our eye off of other counties?


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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 11:35 AM
Response to Reply #41
61. After giving it some more thought
I realized that non-parametric tests of statistical significant would be more appropriate for testing the association between county size and discrepancy between the Gore and Kerry vote. This is because the county size data is not normally distributed -- in fact it is nowhere close to being normally distributed.

The non-parametric tests that I used to test the statistical significance between Triad and non-Triad counties indicated borderline statistical significance (p=.05 using the Wilcoxan rank sum test, and p=.06 using Mantel Hantzle Chi Square). This still could have been confounded by county size, but I don't know of a way to test for this using non-parametric statistics.

One interesting thing about this is that the whole correlation between county size and Gore/Kerry discrepancy was attributed to three huge counties (Franklin, Hamilton, and Coyahoga). These three counties accounted for 29% of the Ohio vote, none of them used the Triad machines, and all of them resulted in large gains for Kerry compared to Gore (88,076 votes).

Perhaps the reason for the large Kerry gains over the Gore vote in the very large counties had to do with the huge increases in voter registration in Ohio. Did this take place disproportionately in some very large counties? If so, that could explain above paragraph.
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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 07:50 PM
Response to Reply #61
70. I think it is true that voter registration drives were held
disproportionately in the cities -- Columbus (Franklin); Hamilton (Cincinnati); Cuyahoga (Cleveland). ACT, the Kerry Campaign, Unions were all in over-drive registering potentially Democratic voters. One observer, who had registered voters in the South during 'Freedom Summer' decades ago, said that the energy put into the voter reg drives in Ohio this last year outdid Freedom Summer.

The following is important, "One interesting thing about this is that the whole correlation between county size and Gore/Kerry discrepancy was attributed to three huge counties (Franklin, Hamilton, and Coyahoga)." This says that Gore/Kerry discrepancy differences between counties of similar sizes should reveal something about where we should direct our attention.

:kick:
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m.standridge Donating Member (269 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 01:28 PM
Response to Reply #36
42. It would appear that the most credible
analysis of the exit polls versus outcome, in any short term verifiable analysis, would be out of Ohio.
The overall national exit polls, among them, MAY only be off a fraction of one percent, overall. But it's when you break them down by state, that the discrepancies really start to emerge. And it's in Ohio that those are the most powerful.
And, as you've noted, in combination with not only these numbers but the descriptions of events in Ohio, they make a compelling argument that Kerry carried Ohio. It would seem the most realistic short-term investigation with potential to turn up something. (Please note the shrot-term/long-term qualifiers here.)


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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #42
43. I completely agree
That's why I decided to concentrate this analysis on Ohio
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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 07:43 PM
Response to Reply #42
69. I've been looking for information about how many exit polls
were conducted in Ohio this year and what, if any, results we know about?

I remember seeing a post by Jonathon Simon (of Alliance for Democracy) -- former pollster -- who said that in order to get accurate results this year the number of polls was just about double the typical number in swing states. I think I remember seeing that there were more than 50 exit polls conducted in Ohio.

Do you have links to any of this information?
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 09:54 PM
Response to Reply #69
72. I think what he said was
that the sample size was double, not the number of exit polls. I think that there was only one exit poll (i.e., for each state and DC), the Mitofski one. I'm pretty familiar with Simon's post because I used it to do an analysis of exit poll discrepancies by state.

I sent you the link in my other post, but I don't know if it still works.
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vlad Donating Member (62 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-29-04 05:50 AM
Response to Reply #42
78. Triad techie question
Hello All-
I know this election was stolen..
I have been searching through Rapp/Triad family and I nedd to know if anyone can look at this message board about Cheryl Bellucci(Rapp) family, I do not know code or what she is trying to do with her program- could be nothing...
http://www.foxite.com/archives/0000012659.htm

I don't know how to insert clips, but I'll try(sorry if wrong..)
Snip>
That was my thought... form 2 is closing the tables. However, form 1 is refreshed correctly with the new data. I put in some WAIT WINDOWs to check if the tables are still USED (WAIT WINDOW IIF(USED("TAB1"), "TAB1 Yes", "TAB1 No")) and the tables are fine... all the way to the end of the View.CLICK method.

The very first statement in the Previous and Next CLICK methods is SELECT TAB1. That's where the error occurs. "No table in current work area." I tried the "Current Table = " + ALIAS() throughout. Again, all through the View CLICK method, things are as they should be. However, in the Previous Click method, I put the test as the first statement... there is no ALIAS() and I get the error on the SELECT.

Cut<
It's her writing from Xenia..
Thanks, Lore
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KerryOn Donating Member (899 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 11:28 PM
Response to Original message
34. I can not grasp this
I have been looking at Ohio data off and on for several weeks trying to see if there is a correlation with the types of machines used in Ohio. I had the type of machine for each county, but did not have a list of those counties using Triad machines, until rosebud57 posted it for me.

Looks like you and I were working on the same thing, but I'm not sure if I grasp how you are looking at this.

>>I looked at the difference in votes (in each Ohio county) from 2004 and what would have been expected if Kerry had obtained the same percentage of votes in the county as Gore had in 2000.<<

I can not get the same numbers that you have posted, so I must be missing something.

Lets just look at one county for example, Auglazie county.
In 2000 Gore had 5,564 votes or 28% of the total of 19,892 votes.
In 2004 Kerry had 5,904 votes or 25.6% of the total of 23,031 votes.
So are you saying that if Kerry had 28% of the total 2004 votes for Auglazie county, it would be 28% of 23,031, which is (6,449 votes - Gores 5,564) = 885 more votes?

Thanks!
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 12:39 AM
Response to Reply #34
37. Not exactly
For one thing, I'm not looking at total votes, but rather the differences between percentage of Bush and Kerry votes in 2004, compared with the differences between Bush and Gore votes in 2000.

Kerry won 25.8% of the vote in Auglaize, compared to Gore winning 28.8% (I'm excluding 3rd party candidates). The difference is 3%, but you have to double that because Bush also won 3% more votes. So Gore outperformed Kerry by 6%. In the average Non-Triad county, Kerry outperformed Gore by 2.5%. The difference between + 6% and
- 2.5 % is 8.5%. There were 23,031 votes cast in 2004. If Kerry would have performed (relative to Gore) in this county similarly to how Kerry performed in a typical non-Triad county, he would have received 8.5% more of a vote margin (combination of more Kerry and less Bush votes) in that county, or 1958 additional votes.

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KerryOn Donating Member (899 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 01:09 PM
Response to Reply #37
40. I'm trying to keep up here
... so please bare with me.

I understand how you got 6%, using two party percentages, bush +3% and Kerry -3%. I have looked at it this way my self, after all we only care about the Bush and Kerry votes.

I'm still lost concerning Kerry out performing Gore by an average 2.5% for non-trid counties. (Is this 47 counties?) Is the 2.5% two party or three party percentages?

Also 23,031 is the total votes for all parties. How can you use two party percentages and use the total votes?

I hope you don't look at me as being a pest, but I have to see where the numbers come from.

Thanks and
Take Care
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 01:52 PM
Response to Reply #40
45. I think you've got it pretty well
The 2.5% is for the 47 non-Triad counties. This is two party percentages.

I inadvertantly used your figure of 23,031, not realizing that that represented the total all party vote, rather than the two party vote. The figure that I have for the 2-party vote is 22166, so that is the figure that should be mulltiplied.

I'm happy to provide these clarification, because I feel that the more of us there are working together on this issue, the better chance we will have of success. Thank you for your persistance.

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KerryOn Donating Member (899 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 03:57 PM
Response to Reply #45
48. Ok, I'm with you now
I get slightly different results, but its close enough.
Non-Triad counties 2.36% Triad counties -0.86%. Our data for 2000 should be the same, but the 2004 results could very depending on when they were downloaded.

Everything does look pretty convincing, when you consider that ALL other machines including other punch cards averaged to the positive rather than negative.

Since there is a big mix with the non-triad machines going negative and positive, When I get time I'm going to play with the numbers some more.

Thanks and
Best Regards
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 07:31 AM
Response to Original message
39. Thanks so much for this work! KICK!
What strikes me about this is that here we have yet another set of election data that just doesn't add up, and that, wherever the data is skewed, it always skews in Bush's favor.

Whether its Exit Polls vs. "official results" in 10 of 11 states (Freeman), or the national Exit Poll (a separate data set) vs. "official results" (Baiman), or traditional voting methods vs. electronic voting in the big Dem counties in Florida (UC Berkeley), or the east coast vs. west coast Exit Poll skew ('TruthIsAll'), or absentee ballot (30% of the vote) vs. electronic voting in North Carolina ('ignatzmouse'), or all (or virtually all) voting difficulties and vote suppression occurring against Dem and minority voters, or this, Triad vs. non-Triad/ Gore vs. Kerry in Ohio--it always favors Bush and hurts Kerry.

TruthIsAll is always emphasizing this, and I think he's very right to. The odds against human or machine error ALWAYS favoring Bush are astronomical. The statisticians are saying that it's as close to "impossible" as they can ever get.

And 'Time for change' is right to emphasize this as well--seeing this in the context of the overall Exit Poll "redshift," and I would add all the other information, too--blatant violations of the Voting Rights Act, the meanness and pettiness of some of these actions (telling former prisoners they would be arrested if they tried to vote; requiring 80 lb paper for registration), and all the resistance to providing information and to conducting an honest recount.

It's such an overwhelming picture, all in all. If it were NOT for this overwhelming picture of election fraud--that, wherever we look, we find more anomalous numbers favoring Bush, or more Republican election officials bullying Democratic voters--you might think something weird and unusual happened re: Triad vs. non-Triad, or in the Exit Polls. But, taken together, it clearly says (in fact, it screams): Fraud was intended; fraud was accomplished. There is no other explanation for this long list of impossible numbers coupled with intense vote suppression.

I think the Bush 2004 Election Fraud Plan was well thought out, as to its basics (what was needed and how to get it, to secure a bottom-line win in the Electoral College and the popular vote), and was also opportunistic. It took advantage of circumstances to further pad Bush's popular majority. The main part of the fraud occurred on a broad basis, grabbing %'s here and there, all over the map, using access to the Republican-owned secret source code in the central electronic vote tabulators, and in individual machines (all of it extremely insecure and hackable). This was the least detectable way of doing it. The Triad vote may have been EXTRA--and that greediness for yet more votes may well be their undoing.

The vote suppression may also have been "extra"--born of a particular hatred for black voters--or as a hedge against failures in the electronic plan. (I can imagine political hacks distrusting the promises of tech hacks about how easy it would be, and creating some contingency plans--including instructions to Blackwell. )
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genieroze Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 01:59 PM
Response to Original message
47. Nice, kick. eom
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 06:34 PM
Response to Original message
50. The same Triad Management Systems in "What's the Matter with Kansas?"
Antennae went up when reading this excerpt from the book, "What's the Matter with Kansas?", p. 81-82 by Thomas Frank:

"...The Kansas sensibility with which Vernon Smith is most closely connected is not that of populism, but Koch Industries, the nation's second-largest privately held company.Based in Wichita, Koch's primary business is oil, but is far better known for its owners' openhanded political activities than for its petroleum operations. The founder of the dunasty, Fred Koch, was a charter member of the John Birch Soceity. His billionaire son Charles founded the libertarian Cato Institute in 1977, and another billionaire son, David, ran for vice president on the Libertarian ticket in 1980. Koch money flowed through Triad Management Services, which delivered such crucial assistance to Sam Brownback's Senate campaign in 1996; and Koch money, mingled with the money of so many other oil interests, supported the presidential campaign of George W. Bush."
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adolfo Donating Member (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 06:41 PM
Response to Original message
51. Kick
:kick:
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BreakForNews Donating Member (241 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 09:50 PM
Response to Original message
52. Outstanding... Time for Change & EOTE.... and All
This discussion has been so illuminating.
The Q & A explains the basis and the issues so well.

I will republish this as an article & dialog
on BreakForNews.com homepage tomorrow.

TforC andEOTE - would be great to get an article on all this.
(email fintan _at_ breakfornews.com)

TriadGATE - repeat it like a broken record.
One winner issue can break the other issues open.


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kamqute Donating Member (298 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 01:17 AM
Response to Original message
53. Is any given triad precinct in a county where it's all triad?
This question applies both to tabulator and reader software. Sweet work btw, thanks a lot.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 10:50 AM
Response to Reply #53
55. The voting machine data that I used to do the analysis
all came from Voters Unite. They sent me information that indicated the voting machine used for each county in the United States. There was only one voting machine type listed for each county.

I can't say for sure whether the voting machines listed for each Ohio county were used for all precincts in the county. However, I can tell you something based on the experience I had of analyzing New Mexico data a month or so ago. For that analysis I was provided voting machine data for each county, including how many precincts in each county used which voting machines. The good majority of those counties used the same method for each precinct in the county, or for almost every precinct in the county. Therefore, it seems to me likely that most or perhaps all of the Ohio counties that were listed in the database I used as using the Triad Government machines probably used those machines for every precinct or for almost every precinct.
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malatesta1137 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 07:56 AM
Response to Original message
54. we knew MONTHS AGO that Bush
was going to rig, steal and suppress.

The only question that matters is: what is JOHN KERRY doing about it?
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 10:52 AM
Response to Reply #54
56. I think we may hear about that by the end of today
See William Pitt's and other posts on this exciting news.
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malatesta1137 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-28-04 07:57 AM
Response to Reply #56
74. you call that exciting?
I call it a PR move, window dressing.
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phillipw Donating Member (30 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 10:59 AM
Response to Original message
57. RH Phillips has new documentation on this at his web site
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Mojorabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 11:01 AM
Response to Reply #57
58. This link is bad? n/t
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oldflame Donating Member (5 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 11:35 AM
Response to Reply #58
60. Agree: Bad Link. Please advise.
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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 01:32 PM
Response to Original message
62. Using Kerry/Gore discrepancy to indicate counties to analyze further...
Time for Change & EOTE's original analysis compared Triad and non-Triad counties. Interesting result.

The Kerry/Gore discrepancy could be used in other ways: (1) To determine whether Arnebeck is fingering all of the counties in which fraud most likely occurred, and (2) to determine which counties should be analyzed further at a precinct-by-precinct level.
====================================

Does Arnebeck's Bush v Moss include all/most counties in which the Kerry/Gore discrepancy is largest?

Did Kerry do relatively worse than Gore in the counties implicated in fraud by Arnebeck's lawsuit, but as well as or better than Gore in counties not implicated in fraud by Arnebeck's team? Why do this analysis? To see if Arnebeck is focusing on all/most of the counties in which the Kerry/Gore discrepancy suggests there was fraud.

The 36 counties implicated in switching votes from Kerry to Bush in Arnebeck's suit are a mix of Triad (18), ES&S (16), and Fidlar (2) counties (named in footnote). I believe that the implicated counties are those in which John Kerry received 1,000 (or more) votes fewer than C. Ellen Connally (the Democratic candidate running for Chief Justice of the Ohio Supreme Court). The fact that the Dem candidate for Pres received fewer votes than someone lower on the ticket suggests that votes were switched from Kerry to Bush in these counties. Using Time for Change's data, the average Kerry/Gore discrepancy in these 36 counties is -2.51% (range: -12.08 to 6.51).

The 16 counties implicated in switching votes from Connally to Moyer in Arnebeck's original suit are also a mix - ES&S (8); Triad (6); Danaher (1); Diebold (1) - (named in footnote). It is clear that Kerry got more votes in these counties than Connally, but I don't know how they calculated the number of votes they think were switched from Connally to Moyer in Bush v. Moss. Using Time for Change's data, the average Kerry/Gore discrepancy in these 16 counties is 1.94% (range: -2.4 to 12.84).

The 36 Ohio counties not implicated in fraud by the Arnebeck suit have an average Kerry/Gore discrepancy of 0.42 (range: -5.77 to 7.19).

It makes sense that in the 36 counties that Arnebeck thinks votes were obviously moved from Kerry to Bush, Kerry in 2004 would average 2.51% fewer votes than Gore in 2000. In the 16 counties in which vote skimming from Connally is more obvious, Kerry average 1.94% more votes than Gore. The difference isn't large enough, IMO, to think that the Kerry/Connally discrepancy is the best way to sort out which counties had fraud and which did not.
====================================

Using Kerry/Gore discrepancy to indicate counties to analyze further...

I think that the Kerry/Gore discrepancy is a pretty good indicator of the counties in which fraud probably occurred, and, if this is so, then Arnebeck is not fingering all of the counties in which fraud occurred. The 24 counties with the largest Kerry/Gore discrepancy include 15 that *were* listed in Bush v Moss (Auglaize, Champaign, Clermont, Clinton, Darke, Defiance, Highland, Lawrence, Logan, Madison, Mercer, Miami, Preble, Shelby, Van wert) and 9 that *were not* listed in Bush v. Moss (Belmont, Clark, Hardin, Harrison, Jackson, Marion, Paulding, Ross, Wyandot). The average discrepancy for all 24 counties is -5.12; the 15 implicated in Bush v Moss = -5.98; the 9 that are not named in Bush v. Moss = -4.34.

Conclusion: Anyone who is motivated to do precinct-by-precinct analyses might do well to start with the 24 counties with the largest Kerry/Gore discrepancy.
=======================================

Full list of counties implicated in fraud in Bush v. Moss:

The 36 counties implicated in switching votes from Kerry to Bush in Arnebeck's suit are a mix of Triad (18), ES&S (16), and Fidlar (2) counties. The Triad counties are Brown, Champaign, Clinton, Darke, Defiance, Greene, Highland, Holmes, Logan, Madison, Mercer, Miami, Pickaway, Preble, Putnam, Union, Van Wert and Warren. ES&S Counties are Adams, Allen, Auglaize, Butler, Clermont, Crawford, Delaware, Fairfield, Geauga, Hamilton, Hancock, Lawrence, Licking, Richland, Shelby, Williams. Fidlar: Medina & Morrow.

The 16 counties implicated in switching votes from Connally to Moyer in Arnebeck's original suit are also a mix ES&S (8); Triad (6); Danaher (1); Diebold (1). The six Triad counties are Ashtabula, Jefferson, Lorain, Montgomery, Portage, and Summit. ES&S is in Athens, Cuyahoga, Erie, Mahoning, Ottawa, Sandusky, Stark, and Trumbull. Danaher is in Franklin; Diebold is in Lucas. Huron is also listed in the lawsuit, but I can't tell from VerifiedVoting.org what type of voting system they have.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 02:47 PM
Response to Reply #62
63. Is there still time to make decisions on what counties to target?
If so, I would like to do that? However, I don't have any precinct data on either the 2000 or the 2004 election. Do you know where I could get that?
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EuroObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #63
66. Fascinating, and also weird...
Here in Spain (pop. some 44 million), well before dawn of the day following an eleccin (usually held on a Sunday or other non-working day), some 99% of votes have been counted and the results down to precinct level are posted on the Interior Ministry's web site (more or less) as they are counted. The last few, maybe contested, precincts are posted as they come in.

So, we never have to ask where is the data?

Yes, I've felt a bit worried at times (during the Ansar regime ;) ) about the Interior Ministry running the election - but at every level there are observers from all parties (and there are many).

And, of course, at the first clear sign of lies and/or corruption of this process we all know what would happen...

Our last civil war was not that long ago.
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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 07:33 PM
Response to Reply #63
68. I think the analyses are going to continue for some weeks & months
Edited on Mon Dec-27-04 07:39 PM by IndyOp
from now. I am working to get people informed and to get a Senator to stand up and contest, but I don't think we have nearly enough outraged Americans to move the Senate and House to vote in Kerry's favor. I am working to get the truth to the people and in hopes of something even bigger and better than impeachment -- washing the whole Bush administration out of office.

Skids (who you can PM from the thread immediately below) is working with Richard Hayes Phillips -- who had the precinct data for 2004 (and possibly 2000):
<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... >

Also be sure to check out this thread for another interesting approach at analyzing data that is just getting moving - the author has precinct data for 2000 and 2004!
<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... >

Richard Hayes Phillips website <http://www.northnet.org/minstrel > says:
There are 88 counties in Ohio. If you can help with statistical analysis
Contact: richardhayesphillips@yahoo.com

Edit: Additional Info
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 10:09 PM
Response to Reply #68
73. Thank you -- I e-mailed Mr. Phillips about my interest
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 06:54 PM
Response to Original message
65. Are you sure about the number? Ohio statistical summary .....
Here is a statistical summary of the Bush percentage shift and comparative data.

Note, these are based on county data, without consideration of county population differences. You have too look closer to get the real import of the data.

Bush Shift Percentage
Statistical Summary

State E-Vote Op-Scan Punch
mean 0.90 0.61 0.54 1.00
median 0.95 0.90 0.32 1.04
stdev 1.97 1.85 2.42 1.91

Punch Card Counties by vendor:

SyPunch Triad
mean 0.84 1.18
median 1.04 1.27
stdev 2.11 1.84

All Counties by vendor:

mean 0.81 1.18
median 0.87 1.27
stdev 2.12 1.84

Pearson Correlations Matrix:
% B2k % G2k % B % K % B + % D + % Vote +
% Bush 2k -0.994 0.979 -0.981 0.211 -0.426 0.217
% Gore 2k -0.994 -0.968 0.974 -0.190 0.372 -0.195
% Bush 0.979 -0.968 -0.994 0.408 -0.567 0.292
% Kerry -0.981 0.974 -0.994 -0.365 0.574 -0.150
% Bush + 0.211 -0.190 0.408 -0.365 -0.803 -0.164
% Dems + -0.426 0.372 -0.567 0.574 -0.803 0.004
% Votes + 0.217 -0.195 0.292 -0.150 -0.164 0.0037

Pearson Correlations % Kerry % Bush
Statewide % Non-Votes P. -0.074 -0.037
P. Turnout -0.066 0.084
E-Voting % Non-Votes P. -0.171 0.149
P. Turnout -0.339 -0.778
Op-Scan % Non-Votes P. -0.049 -0.166
P. Turnout 0.296 -0.145

State Bush Shift
count 88
mean 0.903
median 0.949
skew -0.084
.5mean 0.919
stdevp 1.958
min -5.144
max 6.324
range 11.47

2004 Ohio Voting
Vote % State E-Vote Op-Scan Punch
Kerry 47.71 51.94 43.88 47.44
Bush 50.16 46.73 54.31 50.21
Badnarik 0.257 0.341 0.176 0.253
Peroutka 0.208 0.228 0.148 0.214
Non-Vote 1.663 0.760 1.492 1.887


==========
Go to the online source:
Ohio Spreadsheets, Analysis and Charts
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #65
67. Sorry, I don't understand you question n/t
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-28-04 12:47 PM
Response to Reply #67
75. Actually, Bush wins Ohio by 200,000 with 2000 County Percentages !!!
Are you multiplying averages by number of counties, or are you summing the vote difference number generated in each county? The counties have difference population sizes.

Take the county percentages Bush and Gore in 2000, multiply it times the number of votes cast in the county in 2004 and the result is:

Bush
2,792,973

Kerry
2,582,981

Margin
209,991

I think you have played a numbers game here.

=========

Ohio Election Analysis
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-28-04 03:37 PM
Response to Reply #75
76. I think you misunderstand my original intention
This analysis was done in response to my ongoing communication with Voters Unite, in order to identify the counties in Ohio, and the associated voting machines, which did least well for Kerry, in comparison with 2000. My feeling was that that these would be the counties that would be best to target for further investigation.

The result showed that the Triad counties were substantially worse for Kerry, as compared with 2000. I posted this thread because I felt that that information supported the recent findings of numerous election irregularities surrounding the Triad machines.

In no way was this post meant to suggest that this analysis showed that Kerry lost a specific amount of votes from the Triad machines. The major point was a comparison of the Gore/Kerry discrepancies between the differenct types of voting machines.

It was the exit poll in Ohio (which showed Kerry winning by 4.2%) that makes me believe that Kerry won Ohio, not this analysis. This analysis only suggests where he might have lost most of those votes.
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-29-04 02:16 AM
Response to Reply #76
77. I think I did understand it, and I found the reasoning flawed
Here is a comparison of statewide and Triad only stats:

		% Bush		% Voters +	% Bush +	% Votes +
STATE: mean 57.13 3.97 0.90 14.83
TRIAD mean 58.67 4.29 1.18 14.31


Nothing out of normal here. This sort of difference is to be expected. It is obvious that Triad is in majority Repub areas.

Analysis on a precinct level might be useful.

The best place to look for fraud may be areas of strongest Kerry support. See the following Cuyahoga thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

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Imagevision Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-27-04 07:57 PM
Response to Original message
71. January 6th 2005? History in the making.
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