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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:10 PM
Original message
Major fraud in Colorado?
According to the original exit poll from Colorado (exitpollz.org), Kerry was winning Jefferson and Arapahoe Counties combined by 53% to Bush's 46%.

Low and behold, the final results (available on uselectionatlas.org) reveal that Bush won 51.67% of the votes in these two counties while Kerry received only 47.04%

This represents a shift from exit poll to final result of a whopping 11.63% towards Bush!!!

(By the way, Jefferson County votes on Diebold optiscan equipment and Arapahoe County votes on ES&S touch-screen equipment with NO PAPER TRAIL)

Looking at the Denver/Boulder/Adams counties, we see that the final result is closer to the exit polls. The exit polls show Kerry with 61% to Bush's 38%. According to the final tally, Kerry got 63.8% to Bush's 35.1%; a shift in Kerry's direction of 5.9%

Thoughts?
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GetTheRightVote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:11 PM
Response to Original message
1. They also used the caging list as well, but more could be happening too
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CrispyQ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:12 PM
Response to Original message
2. Re-vote for the entire nation with paper & pencils.
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intheflow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:23 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. Re-vote with paper and PENS.
Pencils can be erased and rewritten more easily.
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tridim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:13 PM
Response to Original message
3. I live on the edge of Arapahoe County
Edited on Thu Dec-09-04 06:14 PM by tridim
and just based on the campaign signs, it seemed like Kerry was the only candidate running. There is very little Bush support here.

I voted (maybe) on a DRE machine, a mechanical version of BBV. No paper trail, just voting into the vapor.
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:15 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. I've been told that from my friends in Denver as well...
It seems like there was just a huge groundswell of support for Kerry there. And don't you find it odd that the Denver exit pollsters underrepresented Kerry voters?
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intheflow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Kerry won my precinct in S. Denver by 73%.
My landlord was an election judge, he told me.
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rdmccur Donating Member (622 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:14 PM
Response to Original message
4. Wow! Good find.
My sister lives in Lafayette just north of Denver. Which county is Denver in?
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tridim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:15 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Denver is in Denver County
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:37 PM
Response to Original message
9. kick
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jdog Donating Member (569 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:51 PM
Response to Original message
10. I live in Arapahoe County
and kinda thought the same thing, especially since Arapahoe Countys western border is contiguous with Denver. Denver went like 70% for Kerry.

So I pulled the demographics and compared the 2 counties. Arapahoe County is 80% white, while Denver was more like 50%, with like 30% Hispanic in Denver versus ~10% in Arapahoe county. (Im doing this from memory because I filed away the demographic studies and Im too tired and busy to try to find them. Its pretty easy to verify online, but Im think my memory is close.)

I dont know if this explains the disparity that I noticed between the two counties, but it stopped me from trying to pursue it any further.

One other fact of interest: I believe almost all of Colorado were optical scan except for the most populated counties, Denver, Arapahoe, Jefferson, Boulder, El Paso; those were DREs.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/08000.html

Of course, none of this explains any exit poll indications.
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Metrix Donating Member (293 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 07:43 PM
Response to Reply #10
22. Jefferson County uses ES&S
I can't believe all the people waiting in line for hours to vote early (I was a pollwatcher) were there for Chimpy.
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:53 PM
Response to Original message
11. Did you check on the Absentee votes? Repubs do well on those.
Absentees are added at end of day.
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jdog Donating Member (569 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:55 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. They (the SOS) haven't provided the breakdown
on absentee's and provisional yet.
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F.Gordon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 08:40 PM
Response to Reply #12
24. No, but the counties have
Actual election day votes accounted for 48% of the total in Arapahoe and 41% in Jefferson. Less than half the total votes cast in both counties were cast ON election day.

The Democratic volunteers did a fantastic job in both of these counties. All this talk of "fraud" in Colorado has transcended rational analysis and has moved into the Twilight Zone, where facts are just a nuisance.

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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:34 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. Excuse me! The exit polls INCLUDED absentee interviews over...
the telephone. Get bent.
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F.Gordon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 01:10 PM
Response to Reply #25
35. Get bent?
Is that some kind of cryptic message wishing me a Happy Holidays? I just love you zealots. Maybe we should coordinate an effort to search through the trash here in Colorado? :eyes:

Tell me Sparky, do you live in Colorado? I do. The Democratic Volunteers in Jefferson and Arapahoe County did a hell of a better job of GOTV than the solid blue counties of Denver and Boulder.

Let me give you some registration numbers....

Arapahoe County
Republican 134,411 / Democrat 106,319 / Independent 120,086

Jefferson County
Republican 142,921 / Democrat 109,868 / Independent 119,522

I'll tell you something else Sparky. The Kerry people knew by 3:30pm that it was all over in those counties. A 1/2 hour before the first "exit poll" sweep. We needed the lazy ass apathetic Democratic voters to get to the polls and they didn't. And, quite frankly, the republicans were better organized and had more volunteers than we did. Initially I thought we had the upper hand, but we didn't. We had all these fucking assholes working for "the computer ate my vote" and Moveon that didn't do shit in helping the GOTV effort.

Take a closer look at your "exit poll" data. Compare urban proper areas to suburban areas. There are areas in these counties that are blood red. I could break it down precinct by precinct for you but that would just confuse the message you're singing to the choir.

Do you want to tell me to get bent again, or do you want to discuss the facts? Don't answer that. I already know what your response will be.
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 01:19 PM
Response to Reply #35
36. It all depends on how the independents swung. There was no...
11-point shift towards Bush in these counties. The facts? The facts are that exit polls don't lie. The exit polls were dead on for the Senate race, and way off for the Presidential. Gee, I wonder why.

Yes, there are more Republicans than Democrats, yes there will always be pockets of red that will never change.

Did you design the computers that counted our votes? Do you know they were being counted correctly? In the Ukraine, the exit polls were off by only nine percent and they invalidate the entire election because of it. In Jefferson county the exit polls are off by almost 12%!!!! And that makes everything okay?

"The Kerry people knew by 3:30 p.m. that is was all over in those counties." How? Did they go and watch the lines in Jefferson county and say, 'Gee those really look like Bush voters, I guess we lost the county.' Or did they say, 'Gosh, this exit poll data in Jefferson County must be off by 12%.'

Don't obfuscate with your urban vs. suburban contention. The most specific part of the exit poll is the one that focuses on SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC AREAS. It shows a CLEAR WIN for Kerry in Jefferson and Arapahoe, most likely based on the strong independent swing towards Kerry.

But there's no reasoning with you. I guess you just know everything, or you were standing over the computers watching every single person cast their votes.
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F.Gordon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 02:03 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. :sigh:
You've never done GOTV work, have you? And you don't live in Colorado, do you?

Actually, myself and others WERE watching and recording every single person voting. The Democratic voters that is. I worked eight precincts on election day. During my morning shift I had to go through hundreds of sign in cards. The Democrats on my check sheets were few and far between compared to the sign in cards. Translation: more republican & independent voters, voting.

The Kerry people were monitoring the "lazy dem" voter. Like I said, we needed them, and they didn't show up. The Kerry people I talked to for a brief moment on Election day essentially "packed it in" before 3:30pm because they saw the actual VOTING numbers being given to them by those of us that actually WORKED on election day.

You do need to compare the urban proper areas to the suburban areas, and you need to go back and compare the 2000 election. The suburban areas of these counties are densely populated with high numbers of republicans that had high voter turnout percentages.

No, I don't know everything....but I sure the fuck know more about Colorado than you do. But, if you're convinced that some "exit poll" is proof of "fraud", go for it. Fly out here to Colorado and dig through the trash.
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 05:20 PM
Response to Reply #37
38. Yes I have done GOTV work, and yes, I have been to Colorado many...
times and continue to visit the state several times a year.

Regarding the montoring of voters - on CNN on election day I saw Candy Crowley say that the Kerry team was "giddy with the numbers they've been seeing." That was around 8 p.m. Eastern time.

There are always going to be lazy voters. So what? There are lazy voters on both sides of the aisle. Did you work the Republican side? Did you find out what percentage of the independents were breaking for Bush?

Bush was probably going to win Colorado anyway, but I imagine Jefferson and Arapahoe counties would be a really easy place to pad votes, given the equipment they were using.

Additionally, Repukes outnumber Dems by about 30% in Jefferson and Arapahoe counties. Still, Kerry managed to pull to within about 5% in each county. So that tells you that Independents were splitting towards Kerry bigtime. Well, what if they were splitting even more. What if over 10% of Republicans were voting for Kerry. Those subtle shifts would give Kerry a slight victory in each of these two counties.

Anyway, we will just have to agree to disagree. You can use the 'f' word all you want, I'm sticking with my "padding" theory. I will not read another nasty reply from you - don't waste your time.

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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 07:01 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. Every single absentee ballot would have had to have gone for Bush.
Additionally, in almost every state this year, the absentee ballots were trending toward Kerry.
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alittlelark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 07:37 PM
Response to Reply #11
44. They did not in this election, due to many
BBV aware Dems choosing absentee (I did as well ;)
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Stevepol Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:55 PM
Response to Original message
13. When you've got that big a swing it's most likely fraud.
This is exactly what happened in GA 02. The Demo uncumbent governor Barnes had an 11% lead 4 days before the electin and lost by 5% pts, a 16 pt swing. Cleland lost with a 13% point swing. Aside from saying they were "stunned," nobody did a damned thing about it, mainly because there's nothing that can be done since you can't recount. But somebody somewhere needs to take this to court and contest elections that don't have any possiblity of a meaningful recount. Maybe somebody in CO could do that, set a precedent. One of the ways these criminal companies can be either driven out of business or forced to provide a voter-verified paper ballot is by constant law suits and harrassment. The only way I can see. You can't see the source code because it's "proprietary." You can't recound or audit because there's no paper. So the only possible proof of anything is exit polls and pre-election polls. In GA after the election they pulled all the exit polls off the internet because they were so obviously wrong, i.e., so far off from the actual results. I googled some of the reports of the election and there was a huge turnout of black voters, just the sort of people who would vote for Chambliss and Sonny Perdue. Make people aware of it; that's all that can be done short of revolution.
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rdmccur Donating Member (622 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 07:04 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. If you read Freeman's analysis of the exit poll
discrepancies, you can get an idea of the probability of that happening by chance. You could also send him the data and ask for a quick good estimate from him. He seems interested in helping out.
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mostly_lurking Donating Member (174 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:58 PM
Response to Original message
14. Okay, you are in my backyard
I live south of just Denver in Douglas county. Arapahoe and Jefferson are solidly Republican so I'd sooner doubt the exit polls than the actual results if the exit polls show then going for Kerry. Denver county itself and Boulder county are the two Democratic strongholds in the area.
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 07:15 PM
Response to Reply #14
17. Marion County, Indiana is also solidly Republican and it chose Kerry.
Also, "solidly Republican" doesn't mean what it used to. More and more voters are registering as Independents. Kerry won the Independent vote in Colorado by 10 points.
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intheflow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 07:18 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. And CO registartion is split almost evenly 3 ways: Indy, Dem, Rep. n/t
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rdmccur Donating Member (622 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 07:15 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. What does the voter registration show?
What were the results from 2000?
I would believe that Kerry would have done better than Gore.
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 07:55 PM
Response to Reply #18
23. Here's a link to the registrations:
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 07:40 PM
Response to Reply #14
21. Then look at the exit polls for Salazar vs. Coors....
They are EXACTLY RIGHT and it shows Salazar also taking what you believe to be Republican strongholds.
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intheflow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 07:20 PM
Response to Original message
20. I'm posting a link to this thread in the Colorado forum.
Edited on Thu Dec-09-04 07:26 PM by intheflow
Assuming you won't mind. :)


And if you're interested, here's a thread talking about vote splitting in Colorado: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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Lisabtrucking Donating Member (807 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:37 PM
Response to Original message
26. Tom Daschle should of called for a recount, close race
I wish someone would check out south Dakota. not even 4000 votes separate them, I would of wanted a recount with all the mistakes going on in this election.
Tom Daschle (D): 49% (193,279)
John Thune (R): 51% (197,814)
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KatieB Donating Member (431 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:39 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. These 51% victories are usually a sign of voter machine tampering
Maybe he could not ask for a recount.
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Lisabtrucking Donating Member (807 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. Your right 51% been popping up a lot. nt
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KatieB Donating Member (431 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:44 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. YEP
and this is just how Clinton Curtis talked about the machinery working. They are also able to get to the central tabulators which are hooked to all the precincts over phone lines.
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #29
31. Listen to this snippet from an earlier post about Karl Rove on Nov. 2
"He set up computers in the Old Family Dining Room and started tabulating results. He had set up a massive network of contacts, not just in state capitals, but individual districts and precincts to monitor turnout and support."
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no safe haven Donating Member (202 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #31
43. How about this?
"Hours before it was clear that US President George W Bush had won the election, Karl Rove told his boss to rest easy.

Working from a bank of computers on the first-floor of the White House, Bush's political guru absorbed the turnout numbers, checked his target projections in swing states and concluded that the bitterly contested race was over.

In first few hours of counting, John Kerry still seemed to be in the game and the political world held its breath. But Rove told Bush that the crucial state of Ohio was in the bag and that he would be re-elected. 'Karl was calling states long before the networks did,' a Bush confidant said. 'His grasp of reality was totally uncanny.'

Bush spoke to Rove by phone every 10 minutes all night long and later showered praise on the political junkie.
"

http://smh.com.au/news/US-Elections/Bushs-architect-wil...

I don't know how reliable the SMH's "Bush confidant" is, but you've got to wonder.....
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ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #27
30. Yes, I hadn't thought about that.
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Lisabtrucking Donating Member (807 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #30
32. There is just too much coincidence here.
I wish things would start moving faster. I just can't stand the thought of that drunk driving, liar, being inaugurated again.
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Lisabtrucking Donating Member (807 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:54 PM
Response to Reply #32
33. This is the biggest scam ever.
It just works out to conveniently for the republicans, I will never believe people intended this. Heck everyone I meet can't believe it. Where are all these people, and I'm glad I don't know them.
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bush_is_wacko Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 10:19 AM
Response to Original message
34. Exactly as I suspected!
Edited on Fri Dec-10-04 10:19 AM by bush_is_wacko
Just like everywhere else, when an electronic machine is used, the votes are not valid! Why aren't all our programmers trying to recreate these results or figure out how it was done?
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rumpel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 06:34 PM
Response to Original message
39. FYI Denverpost today
Election panel hears proposed fixes


By Erin Cox
Denver Post Staff Writer

For the first time since November's vote, election officials on Thursday acknowledged some of the problems that need fixing.

Secretary of State Donetta Davidson said some felons out on parole voted, and the election manual used to train judges was confusing.

Her 15-member Blue Ribbon Election Panel convened Thursday, and Davidson laid out some of her goals to "assure the fairness, accuracy and transparency of the process."

and

Anyone who wants to speak before the panel must notify the secretary of state's office of intended comments. These can be e-mailed to mfnevans@sos.state.co.us< /p>

full article link
http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36~53~2588108,...
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jdog Donating Member (569 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 06:53 PM
Response to Reply #39
40. also
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livvy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 07:09 PM
Response to Original message
41. I'm so glad I'm not 51 anymore. I'm so sick of seeing that number!
Just the way that number has popped up over and over again. It just doesn't seem reasonable.
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GOPBasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 07:22 PM
Response to Original message
42. Bush does better than exit polls where they use black box voting machines
Gee, that's such a surprise.
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