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View this graph. And remember, incumbents wih 48.5% approval always LOSE

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 05:35 PM
Original message
View this graph. And remember, incumbents wih 48.5% approval always LOSE
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tex-wyo-dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 05:38 PM
Response to Original message
1. Amazing isn't it?
But Bush won with a mandate...yeah, whatever.

Keep up the good work, TIA!
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driver8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:53 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. It is amazing...
It is amazing to me that all of the numbers and exit polls were showing Kerry as the frontrunner of the election. Then, on election night a miraculous thing happened! Suddenly, the indicators used to predict the winner were wrong, and a candidate who looked like the loser suddenly won!! It must be a sign from above?

All of these things that have never happened before miraculously happened, and most of the public believes it and goes with the flow. Nothing fishy...no need to investigate...the election was fair and square.

Have the American people become that stupid?
I am sick of feeling like I have just been fucked and there is not a thing I can do about it; that these assholes are sitting there laughing at the rest of us because they think they can get away with anything.

Truth is All -- you are awesome!

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RaulVB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:24 PM
Response to Original message
2. Kick
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Wordie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 11:57 PM
Response to Original message
4. They lose unless ObL appears on tv 3 days before their election! n/t
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 12:43 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Clearly that did not have the effect of making * win
Look at the levels at the beginning and the end. He was down as much as when he started. The spike in the middle is when he was riding the 9/11, Hussein "capture" waves. Then, after "the troubles" began, he dropped back down to his initial low levels. That OBL tape "boost" is pure fiction.
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Wordie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 01:03 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. He only won by about 3%, and that is REALLY close. An incumbent
president in wartime should have won by MUCH more, but I think the reason Kerry couldn't quite do it, was the ObL tape coming when it did. "Moral issues" may have been part, but remember, all the pundits were saying that it was only the terrorism issue that * could win on. Then, just days before the election, when all the "undecideds" were finally deciding, what happens??? I don't know why we all seem to have completely forgotten it.

Even what you say in your own post seems to confirm what I am saying, as you talk about the "spike" with the capture of Saddam. Why wouldn't you think he would get another spike with the ObL tape? People just don't want to change presidents when they believe the country is at risk.
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kerry2win Donating Member (321 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 01:13 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. he frauded by 3%
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Wordie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 02:10 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. What if its a combination of lots of things: "irregularities", ObL, moral
Edited on Fri Dec-10-04 02:24 AM by Wordie
values, fraud, weather, disenfranchisement? All of them together. The problem with so much of this is we can't know for sure.

AND I probably offended people by talking about a * win. If so, please forgive. I have felt discouraged just lately. I can't see any way how, as the situation stands now, that Kerry can possibly pull it out, and that's probably why I worded it that way. I hope I am wrong. I do wonder though, if some of the speculative posts are really helping the larger cause, which I see as investigating the problems.
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momzno1 Donating Member (434 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #7
19. Thank You!!
I hate it when people say he won. He most definitely LOST and as you said "frauded by 3%"
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RaulVB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 01:18 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. You mean THE FRAUD accounted for 3% of the vote (n/t)
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 02:25 AM
Response to Reply #6
13. You never mention F_R_A_U_D. Why? n/t
.
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The Judged Donating Member (613 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 01:20 AM
Response to Original message
9. "incumbents wih 48.5% approval always LOSE," without Diebold & ESS!
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 01:40 AM
Response to Original message
10. I hate to bring this up but
I'd love to see fraud proved and the worst president in our history drummed out of office in disgrace, but it's also important to keep an open mind. As many have said, our party may just need to win more hearts and minds.

So, I was thinking that maybe the "red shift" in the later exit polls could be explained by unemployed voters voting earlier in the day and voting for Kerry, while those with jobs voted later and were more likely to vote for Bush.

Here's why: Relatively speaking, people with jobs are fat, dumb and happy. That is, they have some money and credit and are more likely to be content, they have less time to become informed -- probably through right-wing talk radio while driving home from work and so on, and of course, ignorance is bliss.

On the other hand, those who are out of work, who according to official figures for PA, OH and FL, number at least 5.4%, and the un- or under-employed who aren't even counted by the Dept. of Labor, are more likely to be discontent, to want change and to therefore vote for Kerry.

Think of how a pool of 5% of the voting population in these three swing states that decide to avoid the evening rush at the polls and vote earlier in the day on Nov. 2 (no early voting days in PA and OH) could swing the polls more toward the Dems, but only until the after-work crowds come in and go for Shrub. A few percent is all it would take to change a close election.

Has anyone looked at this yet? I've emailed Dr. Steve Freeman at U. Penn to see if he's interested but understandably, his inbox is chockablock. The question is whether these numbers are actually known through polling questions, and why they might cause a greater red shift in the swing states than elsewhere.

If we can rule out this theory, it could help the case the fraud, but if it looks at all feasible, we may have to rethink this and learn how better to get our message out to the red-staters, as many have been suggesting.

Don't get me wrong -- either way, we still need election reform and verifiable voting. What happened in Ohio is a national disgrace and if reversing that can swing the election, so be it!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 02:22 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. Yawn. I've got to go to bed now.
.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 02:39 AM
Response to Reply #12
14. That went well n/t
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ccarter84 Donating Member (412 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 03:58 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. nah man, thats a valid to a point
I just don't think its all that large of a factor, cuz whats to have stopped them from voting absentee like others, or just not voting at all being discouraged and all.
I hope it isn't a large factor...i'll leave it there for tonight/this morning
but good post, all opinions must be heard even if we dont' necessarily like their points
-CC
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tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-10-04 04:17 AM
Response to Original message
16. RCP final pre-election approval rating was 49.5%
Even so, the 50% rule was a rule that was never tested.

Carter and Poppy couldn't break 40% in their approval ratings, they lost handily.

Ford was somewhere in the high 40s, he lost in a squeaker.

Bush was also in the high 40s to low 50s, he barely won.
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Kellis Donating Member (663 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 11:32 AM
Response to Original message
17. good visual TIA.
*Nothing* about the numbers,polls and history of elections match up to a * win.ABSOLUTLY nothing points to a legit win for fuckface awol chimp.
People can try to rationalize the numbers and statistics anyway they want;IT DOESN'T ADD UP to a * win.
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-04 10:21 PM
Response to Reply #17
21. All we want is TRUTH THAT'S ALL
and TIA always gives us the numbers.

Chimp did not have anything in his favor one day before the election.

He was LOSING!

He knew he was losing!

We knew he was losing!

ROVE made him win.

They cheated plain and simple.

Thanks TIA for helping us to see the light.

Wake up America!

Bush did not win this election!

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Yupster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-11-04 01:09 PM
Response to Original message
18. Here are final job approval numbers for 6
Edited on Sat Dec-11-04 01:10 PM by Yupster
major polling firms

approve disapprove
Marist 11/1 49 % 49
GW/Battleground 10/31-11/1 52% 45%
CNN/USAT/Gallup10/29 - 10/31 51% 46%
NBC/WSJ 10/29 - 10/31 49% 48%
Rasmussen 10/29 - 10/31 51% 49%
CBS News/NY Times10/28-10/30 49% 44%
Newsweek 10/27 - 10/29 46% 47%
FOX News 10/27 - 10/28 49% 46%


He's no FDR, but I don't see 48.5 % either.

edit to add link

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/bush_j...
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-04 10:14 PM
Response to Reply #18
20. It was 48.50%. Do the math.
Edited on Sun Dec-12-04 10:18 PM by TruthIsAll
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index_files/ElectionModel.htm													
Avg	Date	Nwk	Fox	Gallup	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby	Qpac
54.50	Jan	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49	53
49.67	Feb	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na	48
48.75	Mar	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na	49
48.55	Apr	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47	46
45.18	May	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42	45
47.00	June	na	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46	na
47.82	July	48	47	47	46	na	45	50	50	48	50	49	46
48.00	Aug	45	51	51	46	48	46	50	51	47	49	44	na
49.09	Sept	48	50	52	46	45	48	50	53	47	54	47	na
48.50	Oct	46	49	46	44	na	49	53	53	49	47	49	na
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________													
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prof_science Donating Member (343 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-04 10:28 PM
Response to Original message
22. My question...
...how the FUCK did GWB ever have a job approval rating of near 90%??? Statistically speaking, there have to be at least SOME of you out there who would have been behind the chimp in those weeks after 9/11.

Or, the polling methods were (are) bullshit.

WTF.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-04 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. After 9/11 most DUers, myself included, were NEVER in favor of Bush.

I am proud to have been a member of the original Ten Percent Club.
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prof_science Donating Member (343 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-04 01:04 AM
Response to Reply #23
24. Well good.
I'm in the right place then :hi:
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