Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

View this graph. And remember: undecided ALWAYS break FOR the challenger.

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 03:35 PM
Original message
View this graph. And remember: undecided ALWAYS break FOR the challenger.
Edited on Thu Dec-09-04 03:43 PM by TruthIsAll
Image

The race was tied at 47-47 right BEFORE the election.
Therefore 6% were undecided.
Kerry won at LEAST 2/3 (4% of the 6%).

HERE'S THE SIMPLE MATH EVEN A FREEPER CAN FOLLOW:

Kerry: 47+4 = 51%
Bush: 47+2 = 49%

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
mom cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 04:42 PM
Response to Original message
1. You are the best. Thanks for all that you are doing!
:yourock:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bmoney07 Donating Member (304 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 04:52 PM
Response to Original message
2. Keep on Keeping on
Great math
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:09 PM
Response to Reply #2
8. Keep this going!!!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 05:33 PM
Response to Original message
3. KISS. Kerry won. Of that there is NO doubt. He will be president
whether he likes it or not.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 05:36 PM
Response to Original message
4. TIA: have you seen this? Any thoughts? It was posted earlier today
on another thread by jwmealy and seemed very interesting to me:


"My studies of the pattern of "red shift" between the latest exit polls on Nov. 2 and the final tabulated results nationally led to the following spectacularly daring prediction:

For every state in which the disrepancy between last-thing Nov. 2 consortium exit polls and tabulated results for red shift or negative blue shift is greater than the margin of error, the following equation will be true:

Red Shift + Final Spread + 1 > Greatest Recorded Red Shift for the 51 States.

This prediction proved true in all 18 cases without exception.

This result could never attain unless there were an engineered result to the election in most or all the states whose red shifts exceed the margin of error. Some piece of software was keeping tabs on the accumulating results for each of these states as they came into the central tabulation database, and incrementally altered percentages so as to keep Bush ahead by 1% until one of two conditions applied: (1) Bush was projected to win by 1% or more, or (2) the amount of intervention required to give Bush the win by 1% exceeded a certain parameter, hypothetically 5.6%, which is the amount of red shift of Vermont, the highest recorded for the 50 states plus WDC.

Please hold on to this information, and if you don't hear more from me, give it to the professional statisticians. Other statisticians will confirm its significance, if I don't. In a word, this is proof. As a quick check, I have run 3000 randomized election outcomes for those 18 states within the general spread and red shift parameters observed for the group, and not one of them has come up with a result of zero exceptions to the prediction."


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 05:41 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Here's the link to his site:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 05:54 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Yes; and check this thread and analysis....
....for additional context.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The author of the thread has a pm and is quite responsive in sharing his spreadsheets; I know, because he generously sent them to me and I've been sharing them with folk who are digging deeply into the issues.

Peace.

"Did Bush Know?"
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
IndyPriest Donating Member (685 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:25 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Hey, Understanding - as the evidence piles on
I think we should consider ammending your postscript from "Did Bush know?" to "When did Bush Know?".
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:44 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Cool!!! I'll do just that.......
....for the first time, now!

"When Did Bush Know?" ask everyone, all the time.....
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ClintCooper2003 Donating Member (629 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 05:46 PM
Response to Original message
6. That was my projection as well.
I wish Zogby would release his exit poll data.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Donailin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:47 PM
Response to Reply #6
11. He's waiting for it to be released by AP
or a least that's my understanding
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Sat Apr 20th 2019, 01:27 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC