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BlueDog2u Donating Member (692 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:13 PM
Original message
WTF!? Exit Polls Were Correct for Other Races
Bruised, a new member, posted this to another thread. It definitely deserves one of its own:


See www.exitpollz.org for FULL ORIGINAL EXIT POLL DOCUEMENTS for some Sates (e.g. Colorado, Ohio, Florida)
I would have put this on breaking news -but I do not have enough posts.
What I would really like would be a copy of the original National exit poll that predicted a lead to Kerry in the popular vote. SOMEBODY MUST HAVE DOWNLOADED those files that were on CNN all evening but have now vanished into thin air.
(Look for update times typically 7 pm).

If you have any other original exit polls, President or Senator, I will add them. I will be improving the site soon and adding an email for this. or you can reply here. The object is to publish the exit polls that have vanished into thin air! The fact of having source docs gives more weight to the figures. By the way the full polls also give detail about how voters voted within different regions of a state which can help analysis.

I can only see 2 possible explanations:
1/ That 44 people out of 2505 respondents all told the truth as to who they voted for Senator, but then lied about who they voted for president. This needs a pattern of respondents all lying in the same way otherwise the lies would tend to cancel each other out and the overall effect would be negligible.
2/ That 36,500 (1.8%) of votes were switched from Kerry to Bush in Colorado in order to help build up a popular vote mandate for Bush.

The fact that similar patterns are reported in many states makes me lean to the second theory. if only we had a full list of documented exit polls.

************************************************************

My comment. If we can demonstrate this as a national pattern, then it fully corroborates the statistical arguments of TIA and others, using direct empirical evidence which will be extremely difficult for any rational person to ignore. I think this is a high priority research project. Can someone out there help us with some clues about how to find this data. This is one thing even a dumb number person like myself can help with, and I'd be happy to do it. Where can we find these exit poll numbers for non-Presidential races?

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sepia_steel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:17 PM
Response to Original message
1. Thanks, bruised and BlueDog!
We know it happened. We just have to make everyone else pay attention!! Awesome find!
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suston96 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:24 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. Other races
The exit polling system used in the Ukraine was paid for by the American taxpayer.

I presume that it is the same exit polling system used here.

Colin Powell and Senator Lugar condemned the Ukraine election based on THAT exit polling.

But that same exit polling system here did not work?

The Ukraine + exit polling + massive demonstrations = new election + election reform.

What is that new democracy over there doing that we are not?
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:13 PM
Response to Reply #5
23. Exit polls were right in Ohio also; Doc. Kerry won Ohio
Documentation that Kerry won Ohio
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/supreme.htm


Strong Evidence of fraud in Miami County, Ohio
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/miami.htm

High undercounts in Kerry precincts and low undercounts in Bush precincts in Cincinati
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/cincinnati.htm

Indications of Fraud in several Ohio counties
www.flcv.vom/fraudioh.html

Indications of possible ballot box stuffing in S.W. Ohio counties
http://www.flcv.com/swohio.html
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/warren.htm

Favoritism in the Suburbs http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/suburbs.htm

Stealing Votes in Cleveland http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/cleveland.htm

(there is more documentation) http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/alpage.htm
(this is without the huge amount of voter suppression that has been previously documented) http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/columbus.htm
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:15 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. Fla. Study documents unusual vote shifts to Bush in touchscreen counties
www.flcv.com/fla04EAS.html
(the Univ. of Calif study is consistent with this)

also: www.flcv.com/flavi04.html
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paritom Donating Member (121 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:33 PM
Response to Reply #5
25. Yes!
At first I was surprised that the US weighted in on the side of the opposition (a democratic movement as opposed to the dictators they help put into power in Latin America), until I realized that what they are really supporting is their company for a pipeline.
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bj2110 Donating Member (802 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:21 PM
Response to Original message
2. Great thoughts! We just need the uncalibrated prez & senate data...

.... which unfortunately, we can't get. At least not yet. But we sure are trying.

Exit polls that match the published results for the Senate but not the President can only mean one of two things, as you said.

1: People lied about Presidential choice, but not about Senate choice.
2: Votes were miscounted, either through fraud or error, in the Presidential race.

Pretty damning argument if we had the data to prove what we all know is probably true.
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Razorback_Democrat Donating Member (756 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:22 PM
Response to Original message
3. Kick
your post title is the most succinct I've seen

it's even clear enough for the average American to understand!

good find

:wtf:
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shraby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:27 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. Someone in a thread a week or so ago
said they had taped election night. They were going to try to get it to the person who asked if anyone had taped/tivo'd it. If we could find the thread, maybe we can get the info.
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 04:08 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Check this thread and I know it's author has...
...done considerable refinement of the results and you can request that he cross post here, if you think it helpful:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Peace.

"Did Bush Know?"
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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:23 PM
Response to Original message
4. Not only that...
but the actual election results are different in many states. That is, a Democratic candidate for state or U.S. senate in another race getting 51% while Kerry gets 49%. The exit polls show the same pattern of discrepency, giving more weight that something was actually DONE to manipulate the vote instead of just an irregularity OCCURING.
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renate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 04:44 PM
Response to Reply #4
12. kick
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liberal43110 Donating Member (687 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:24 PM
Response to Original message
6. Do you have exit poll data for the senator race in Ohio?
It would be interesting to see the exit poll results for the senator race in Ohio too, since that state had such a profound red shift.
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BlueDog2u Donating Member (692 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 04:01 PM
Response to Original message
8. Kick!/eom
:dem:
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regularjoe Donating Member (358 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 04:40 PM
Response to Original message
10. Kick
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reality_bites Donating Member (120 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 04:41 PM
Response to Original message
11. Facts are getting in the way.
Edited on Thu Dec-09-04 04:45 PM by reality_bites
Everbody is fauning over new raw exit poll numbers. No one (on DU) is fauning over the new sampling error numbers.

The sampling error numbers became known yesterday. In his paper, Stephen Freeman assumed 30% sampling error. Unfortunately, it's actually 50%-80%.This is bad for TruthIsAll as well.

Read both:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/12/what_is_the...

http://stones-cry-out.blogspot.com /

EDIT: Both authors wrote papers earlier in support of Freeman. With the new numbers, both are retracting their support.
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tobybear Donating Member (12 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 04:46 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. what does this mean (in layman terms)? nt
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weeve Donating Member (427 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 04:52 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. Sorry , freeper ...
... the marijuana leaf as your signature symbol doesn't fool us ! "Reality" ? I think not. Anyone who uses Mitofsky ( he who will not release the data ) as the source for one's arguement ...

" (Panagakis is the president of a Market Shares Corporation, a polling firm that has conducted exit polls in Wisconsin and other Midwestern states). Panagakis had checked with Warren Mitofsky, director of the NEP exit poll, and learned that the updated design effect used in 2004 assumed a 50% to 80% increase in error ..."

80% sampling error ? Why bother ? Your reality does indeed BITE !
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reality_bites Donating Member (120 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. Your quick on the draw....
The raw exit poll numbers were collected by Mitofsky as well. He didn't release them, but he collected them. Therefore, the raw exit poll numbers can be just as wrong as you beleive the sampling error is.

You don't seem to have a problem using them.

Try harder.
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txindy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 05:17 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. We're the only country that has this problem, though.
Edited on Thu Dec-09-04 05:19 PM by txindy
Right? Our exit polls don't necessarily match the 'actual' results, but that's okay 'cause we're the USA? Ukraine thinks it's a problem. The USA thinks it's a problem in Ukraine.

You seem to have a problem.

Try harder.
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abbiehoff Donating Member (356 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 04:56 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. Haven't previous year exit polls also been cluster polls?
If this year's polls are significantly less accurate than polls from prior elections, then why should it matter that cluster sampling was used? Is this something new?
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nmoliver Donating Member (129 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 04:58 PM
Response to Reply #11
17. Mitofsky changed his methodology ...
to match the tallies as they started to be reported. He said as much. Any scientist knows that you don't change your methodology midway to match the results you want.

- Nina
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nmoliver Donating Member (129 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 04:55 PM
Response to Original message
15. early exit polls
Jonathan Simon, of Massachusetts, downloaded screen shots from CNN - 47 states and their early exit polls. Contact Alliance for Democracy to locate him. - Nina
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Mastiff Donating Member (29 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 05:25 PM
Response to Reply #15
20. My opinion is that Mitofsky is blowing smoke!
Why is his sampling error so much higher than those in the past? I suggest that he is trying to justify the election results. He is supposed to be a great pollster. Thats why he was given this job. However, the exit poll results are way off the scale when it comes to the comparison with the vote totals recorded. Generally exit polls are correct within fractions of a percent. Here they were way off. I think these guys are trying their best to refute Freeman. They went looking for some technical reason to call his results into question. It took them long enough to come up with this methodology. It is technical enough to be over the head of most voters. Remember the saying, "If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit".
Just keep in mind that exit polls are historically extremely accurate. The exit polls for Kerry in Ohio matched the pre-election polls. The counted vote total was way off these numbers, even with the contamination of the raw exit poll data with the reported returns. Also remember Mitofsky won't release the raw data. This makes it harder to dispute any figures he throws out.
Don't let them baffle you with this bullshit. The are just trying to justify the theft.
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 05:28 PM
Response to Original message
21. A very interesting post from jwmealy:
I'm taking the liberty of copying it to this thread because I'd like to hear what the numerically-inclined think about it:

"
My studies of the pattern of "red shift" between the latest exit polls on Nov. 2 and the final tabulated results nationally led to the following spectacularly daring prediction:

For every state in which the disrepancy between last-thing Nov. 2 consortium exit polls and tabulated results for red shift or negative blue shift is greater than the margin of error, the following equation will be true:

Red Shift + Final Spread + 1 > Greatest Recorded Red Shift for the 51 States.

This prediction proved true in all 18 cases without exception.

This result could never attain unless there were an engineered result to the election in most or all the states whose red shifts exceed the margin of error. Some piece of software was keeping tabs on the accumulating results for each of these states as they came into the central tabulation database, and incrementally altered percentages so as to keep Bush ahead by 1% until one of two conditions applied: (1) Bush was projected to win by 1% or more, or (2) the amount of intervention required to give Bush the win by 1% exceeded a certain parameter, hypothetically 5.6%, which is the amount of red shift of Vermont, the highest recorded for the 50 states plus WDC.

Please hold on to this information, and if you don't hear more from me, give it to the professional statisticians. Other statisticians will confirm its significance, if I don't. In a word, this is proof. As a quick check, I have run 3000 randomized election outcomes for those 18 states within the general spread and red shift parameters observed for the group, and not one of them has come up with a result of zero exceptions to the prediction."


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KaliTracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 06:05 PM
Response to Original message
22. OHIO -- State Supreme Court Democrat received more votes than Kerry
Edited on Thu Dec-09-04 06:06 PM by KaliTracy
Part of the lawsuit in Ohio is supposed to mention the fact that in Butler County, the Democrat running for the State Supreme Court received more votes than Kerry/Edwards.

From the Letter (which has footnotes) The Democratic House Judiciary Committee sent to Kenneth Blackwell, Secretary of State/Co-Chair of the Bush/Cheney Re-election Campaign ( http://www.house.gov/judiciary_democrats/ohblackwellltr... )

"In Butler County, a Democratic Candidate for State Supreme Court, C. Ellen Connally received 59,532 votes. In contrast, the Kerry-Edwards ticket received only 54, 165 votes, 5,000 less than the State Supreme Court candidate. Additionally, the victorious Republican candidate for State Supreme Court received approximately 40,000 less votes than the Bush-Cheney ticket. Further, Connally received 10,000 or more votes in excess of Kerrys total number of votes in five counties, and 5,000 more votes in excess of Kerrys total in ten others."

-- I think you may be on to something!

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