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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 04:01 PM
Original message
NY Times reporters probably hold key to proving Kerry victory in Ohio
Reports of massive new voter registration in Democratic counties in Ohio (not to mention other swing states) were an important reason why many believed that Kerry would win Ohio and the general election in 2004 -- and why many still do believe that. Especially striking were reports in the New York Times by Ford Fessenden in September 2004 (http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/printer_092704K.shtml ) and Kate Zernike in October 2004 (http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/100504W.shtm ) that indicated that new voter registration in Democratic areas of Ohio vastly exceeded new voter registration in Republican areas of Ohio.

I believe that information that those reporters (and possibly others as well) used to produce their reports could now be used to show that Kerry won Ohio and therefore the presidential election in 2004. Here is why:


Reports of massive new voter registration in Democratic areas of Ohio

Here are some examples from the article by Ford Fessenden that document the massive relative increases in new voter registration in Democratic, as compared to Republican areas of Ohio:

"A sweeping voter registration campaign in heavily Democratic areas has added tens of thousands of new voters to the rolls in the swing states of Ohio and Florida, a surge that has far exceeded the efforts of Republicans in both states, a review of registration data shows." ....

"county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio - primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods - new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas." ....

"These numbers are similar across Ohio. The Times examined registration from Jan. 1 to July 31 in a sample of counties ... In rock-ribbed Republican areas ... 35,000 new voters have registered, a substantial increase over the 28,000 that registered in those areas in the first seven months of 2000.... But in heavily Democratic areas - 60 ZIP codes mostly in the core of big cities like Cleveland, Dayton, Columbus and Youngstown .... new registrations have more than tripled over 2000, to 63,000 from 17,000.


What is the significance of this massive increase in new voter registration?

The recently released Democratic national Committee (DNC) report on the 2004 Ohio election (Section VI, Figure 12) showed that new voter registration was associated with increased voter turnout by precinct (http://a9.g.akamai.net/7/9/8082/v001/www.democrats.org/... ). Since voter turnout is defined as the percent of registered voters who actually vote, the increase in new voter registration would have to have led to proportionately greater numbers of voters in the 2004 election compared to the 2000 election in those precincts in which it occurred. There are two reasons for this: a larger pool of voters to begin with, and a larger likelihood of voting among voters in that larger pool as demonstrated by the DNC report.

Therefore, if the reports of massive increases in voter registration in Democratic areas of Ohio were anywhere near accurate, that would have led to proportionately more votes in Democratic counties (compared to Republican counties), as well as higher Kerry percentages in those counties, compared to 2000.


Discrepancies between the Fesseden/Zernike reports and current official figures released by the Ohio Secretary of State

Yet, in spite of the above noted reports, official figures show that the number of registered voters in Democratic Ohio counties in 2004 exceeded those numbers for 2000 by less than the increases in voter registration from 2000 to 2004 in Republican Ohio counties.
This can be demonstrated in three ways: First, the correlation coefficient for the Kerry % of the vote in 2004 with the ratio of 2004 to 2000 registered voters, by county, was negative (r = -0.22, p<0.05).

Secondly, one can calculate the effect in net votes of the registration figures released by Kenneth Blackwells office by assuming that Kerry and Bush received the exact same percent of the vote in each county as indicated by the official 2004 vote tallies, but with the number of voters in each county proportional to the number of registered voters in November of 2000 (compared with November 2004) or March of 2004.

Using the November 2000 registration figures, Bush would have won by 87,531. Using the March 2004 registration figures, Bush would have won by 112,080. That's about the time when, according to Fessenden and Zernike, voter registration in Democratic counties increased massively compared to Republican counties. Assuming that these new voters would have voted approximately in the same manner as the already registered voters in each county, this should have resulted in substantial improvement for Kerry, compared with the March 2004 result of a 112,080 win for Bush. Instead, it got even worse, with Bush's margin rising to 118,426 in the final official count. So, that confirms a massive discrepancy between the Fessenden and Zernike reports, as compared to Blackwell's voter registration numbers.

Thirdly, we can look at some specific examples: According to Blackwell's official numbers, Cuyahoga County (which contains Cleveland) showed a DECREASE in voter registration from 2000 to 2004, while Warren County (heavily Republican, and the site of the infamous "lockdown" for bogus "national security" reasons, which allowed Republican officials to count ballots in the absence of any oversight) exhibited a 42% INCREASE in voter registration from 2000 to 2004.


What do these discrepancies suggest?

Although the above articles do not specifically compare 2000 with 2004 total voter registration counts, the picture painted in those articles is so at odds with Blackwell's official figures that it appears that either the article or Blackwell's official numbers must be fraudulent. Perhaps Blackwell knew that accurate voter registration data could be used to show the implausibility of a Bush victory in Ohio.

If the reporters are correct about the relatively massive increase in voter registration in heavily Democratic counties, then why would Blackwells numbers diverge so much from this assessment? I can think of two reasons:

1) Massive increases in voter registration in Democratic counties were followed by massive, perhaps illegal purges of voter registration in those counties

OR

2) Blackwells office manipulated the voter registration numbers in order to hide the fact that Bushs victory in Ohio depended largely upon massive electronic deletion of votes in Democratic counties.

Either of these explanations for the discrepancy between the Blackwell numbers and the stories written by Zernike and Fessenden would indicate massive fraud committed to help Bush win the Ohio election.


What are some specific effects of this discrepancy?

Due to a paucity of specific numbers in the newspaper reports, it's not possible to calculate what the total difference in total votes would have been if the reports were accurate. But there were some specific numbers given for Cuyahoga County. According to the report by Zernike and Fessenden there were 230,000 new registrations in Cuyahoga County in 2004. Yet, according to official Ohio SOS figures, there were only 119,273 new registrations in Cuyahoga County between March and November of 2004. If we assume the Zernike/Fessenden article to be accurate, there would have been 110,727 additional registered voters in Cuyahoga County, and if they would have voted in the same proportion as indicated by the official figures, Kerry would have received a NET of 37,492 extra votes in Cuyahoga County.

But this almost certainly would represent a substantial underestimate, mainly because if the Zernike/Fessenden report is accurate, the targeting of Cuyahoga County would have almost certainly been aimed at the most heavily Democratic precincts thus producing a far greater margin. And remember that this analysis involves only one county, though a big and important one. I could not do a similar analysis for other counties because specific numbers were not supplied in the Times reports, although they did definitely indicate that the trends were similar throughout Ohio.


What does the DNC report have to say about all this and why is that significant?

The DNC report claimed that their analysis strongly suggested that there was "no widespread fraud" in the election in Ohio. This was based upon the demonstration of a strong correlation between Kerry's share of the vote and some other variables, such as percent vote for Eric Fingerhut, the Democratic Senatorial candidate. Yet, this analysis did not even consider the possibility that fraud was committed by electronically eliminating votes in highly Democratic precincts or counties or adding them in Republican areas, which could have occurred without interfering with the above noted correlations.

If that is how fraud was committed, that would explain why the Zernike/Fessenden reports are so inconsistent with Blackwells official voter registration data. Relative massive increases in new voter registration in Democratic areas indicated by those reports would be inconsistent with the official election results, which show that there was a greater increase in total votes in Republican than in Democratic counties. Manipulation of either actual voter registration (through massive purging) or the official voter registration figures would have been the only way to hide this.


What can we do now?

The missing piece to this puzzle, which would prove that the official voter registration figures currently being released from Blackwells office represent fraud, and which could very likely show that Kerry won Ohio in 2004, are the data used to produce the Zernike and Fessenden reports.

These reporters are not listed on the New York Times web site. I wrote to the New York Times a couple of weeks ago, in order to try to get in touch with them, in the hope that they could supply more specific and documented information. Thus far I have not received a reply.

If anyone knows any way that I can get in touch with those reporters, on any other reporters who have written on this subject, please let me know.

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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 04:12 PM
Response to Original message
1. Interesting Post.
So why doesn't the DNC to a detailed analysis of all voter registrations in 2004? Seems that would prove that people were signing up to vote for Kerry/against Bush in such large numbers that the results on 11/4 couldn't be rationalized by a Republican partisan hack like Blackwell.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #1
8. I certainly agree that they should do that
However, for reasons that are very difficult for many of us to fathom, the DNC report is so inadequate that it appears that the DNC is not interested in finding out or exposing what happened in the 2004 Presidential election. Here is the thread where I discuss the inadequacies of this report in a letter I sent to Howard Dean: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

In other words, for political or whatever other reasons, the DNC does not appear to want to touch this issue. Therefore, we need to take this matter into our own hands, and that is why I am asking for help in contacting those reporters.
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shelley806 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 09:21 PM
Response to Reply #8
45. How many DNC members are members of JINSA or AIPAC (or PNAC?)
j kenneth black-well (white-ill) is a proud member of JINSA; he and Bolton and essentially everyone in this current fascist administration...So strange that Jews are supportive of similar institutions and tactics that resulted in the holocaust...Well, history repeats itself, right?

Google links to j kenneth blackwell and jinsa; and jkb and pnac...nuf said.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=ISO-8859-1&q=j+ke...

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&ie=ISO-8859-1&q=...

<snip> from Jinsa (Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs)

http://www.jinsa.org/about/adboard/adboard.html?documen...
J. Kenneth Blackwell brings a distinguished record of achievement as an educator, diplomat and finance executive to his current position as the 51st Secretary of State of Ohio. As Secretary of State, he serves as Ohio's chief elections officer and administrator of official records. Mr. Blackwell's public service includes terms as Mayor of Cincinnati, an undersecretary at the U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Human Rights Commission and Treasurer of the State of Ohio. He is currently a vice president of the National Association of Secretaries of State, member of the board of directors of the Campaign Finance Institute in Washington, D.C., a member of the Advisory Panel of the Federal Elections Commission, and a member of the board of directors of the John M. Ashbrook Center for Public Affairs (Ashland University).He is chairman of the National Electronic Commerce Coordinating Council, a member of the Harvard Policy Group on Network-Enabled Services and Government, and a member of the Advisory Board of The Princeton Review. He currently serves on the board of directors of the International City Management Association/ Retirement Corporation. He served on the National Commission on Economic Growth and Tax Reform, and in 1998, he co-edited a book with Jack Kemp, titled, IRS v. The People: Time for Real Tax Reform.

In 1998, Secretary Blackwell delivered the Beckett Lecture on Religious Liberty at Oxford University. He has also lectured at Harvard University, the University of Newcastle in England, the Moscow State Institute for International Relations in Russia, and the International Academy of Public Administration in Paris.Mr. Blackwell, a life member of the NAACP, has twice received the U.S. Department of State's Superior Honor Award for his work in the field of human rights from the Administrations of Presidents George H.W. Bush and William Jefferson Clinton.


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jillan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 11:53 PM
Response to Reply #45
53. I doubt that Kenneth Blackwell is Jewish - what
does your anti-semitic post have to do with the discussion on this thread?
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shelley806 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 11:02 PM
Response to Reply #53
86. You can explain yourself if you like...Your remark is an
"anti-semitic post" IMVHO. We are at war because of Israeli and US fear and greed.
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0007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 04:14 PM
Response to Original message
2. This is outrageous, and Kerry didn't have a clue?
"According to Blackwell's official numbers, Cuyahoga County (which contains Cleveland) showed a DECREASE in voter registration from 2000 to 2004, while Warren County (heavily Republican, and the site of the infamous "lockdown" for bogus "national security" reasons, which allowed Republican officials to count ballots in the absence of any oversight) exhibited a 42% INCREASE in voter registration from 2000 to 2004."

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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 04:49 PM
Response to Reply #2
12. I don't think that anyone knows WHAT Kerry knows about all this
Does he think that it would be bad politics to make a bigger deal out of this?

Is he (and our other Democratic leaders) working behind the scenes on something?

Do they just not know?

I and a whole lot of other people are greatly perplexed about this.

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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 07:44 AM
Response to Reply #12
59. I agree, it is hard to tell what Kerry knows or does not know.
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grasswire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 09:26 AM
Response to Reply #12
65. I can tell you one thing...
...told directly to me by the spouse of someone close to John Kerry. The person said to me last year the day after having dinner with the Kerrys that Teresa is called "paranoid" by John when she talks about the Ohio election details. Teresa gets it. John apparently refuses to do so.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 11:56 AM
Response to Reply #65
67. Wow, that's something I didn't expect to hear
I thought that it was mostly political considerations that keep him from saying much about this. The conversation that you speak about makes it sound like he really doesn't get it. That sounds to me like he's in denial. And apparently a lot of our other Democratic leaders are as well.

Or, maybe he just says that about Teresa to keep up appearances.
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shelley806 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #2
47. And Kerry had NO IDEA about the Ohio Vote Rigging Testimony?
I can't imagine him not knowing. NO Democracy here folks, even with the so-called Democrats. A nation lied to is NOT a Democracy. I don't think Kerry gives a @#$%$^^##@*& that the election was stolen from him...he should care that the election was stolen (ONCE AGAIN) from WE THE PEOPLE...the only HOLY reason these scumbags are in office. We give them their powers.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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NVMojo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 04:29 PM
Response to Original message
3. 1st a few people need to grow a conscience ...reporter, elected
officials, humans involved such as Kerry and others. Americans will need to quit acting like sheep.
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 04:31 PM
Response to Original message
4. I've emailed this report to Cameron Kerry and Congressman Conyers.
Maybe they will help you contact the reporters.




Peace.

www.missionnotaccomplished.us - How ever long it takes, the day must come when tens of millions of caring individuals peacefully but persistently defy the dictator, deny the corporatists their cash flow, and halt the evil being done in Iraq and in all the other places the Bu$h neoconster regime is destroying civilization and the environment in the name of "America."

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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #4
13. Thank you UL
Let us hope we get a response.
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moodforaday Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 04:35 PM
Response to Original message
5. Try this page
Edited on Mon Aug-01-05 04:36 PM by marekjed
Reporters' names are not listed, but perhaps you'll find someting useful among the @nytimes addresses:

http://www.rumormillnews.com/MEDIA_EMAIL_ADDRESSES.htm

On edit: See also here:
http://www.nytimes.com/ref/membercenter/help/infoservdi...
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #5
15. Thanks, but the second link doesn't appear to be working
I think you gave me the shortcut, which doesn't work.

As far as I can tell, the first link involves only organizations, not individuals, except for Senators and Congressmen.
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moodforaday Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. http://www.nytimes.com
Works for me, but go to nytimes, scroll all the way to the bottom and click "Contact us" - this is http://www.nytimes.com/ref/membercenter/help/infoservdi...
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 06:01 PM
Response to Reply #16
26. Thank you, that's basically what I've done
I wrote them an e-mail, and I sent them the same letter by snail mail. They haven't responded in about two weeks.
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bmcatt Donating Member (398 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 04:37 PM
Response to Original message
6. Potentially silly question...
Edited on Mon Aug-01-05 04:38 PM by bmcatt
(I'm not enough of a student of the Constitution to even have a clue as to this...)

For argument's sake, suppose that tomorrow sufficient hard evidence came out to prove, conclusively, that the vote in Ohio was counted and recorded fraudulently and Kerry was, in fact, the victor in Ohio.

Doesn't that really just mean that we then get to start impeachment proceedings? At this point, the electoral college met and voted and they selected a president. I don't believe (but would be happy to be convinced otherwise) that there's any provision for "rolling back the clock".
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 05:11 PM
Response to Reply #6
17. What you say is correct
However, there are three reasons why I (and many many others) feel that this is very important nevertheless:

1) Meaningful election reform is absolutely needed in this country, but it is an uphill battle. Republicans in Congress are stonewalling all efforts at meaningful election reform. Only a great amount of pressure from the people of this country will get them to move on this. And I believe that providing good solid evidence that Kerry lost the election only because of massive election fraud will provide the motivation of our population that is needed to make this occur.

2) By understanding better HOW the election was stolen we can better target our efforts at election reform.

3) Exposing the election theft should significantly reduce the political influence of the current Administration, thereby preventing them from doing more damage than they already are. It could also make Bush and Cheney more susceptable to impeachment.
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bmcatt Donating Member (398 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 06:39 PM
Response to Reply #17
33. No argument
Just in case my question was being misunderstood - I was most definitely NOT saying that we do nothing with this. Rather, it was more of an honest question of "What do we hope to accomplish?"

I really do wish we had a way to turn back the clock, but in the context of where we are now, I really wasn't sure whether the plan was to use this to prevent further abuses or... anything else.

Thanks for the clarification.
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DS1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 04:38 PM
Response to Original message
7. I'm still confused
I thought we were on the "Americans are all ignorant and dumb" track this week.

Now you're telling me they DID vote for Kerry?

Can't have it both ways.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 05:13 PM
Response to Reply #7
18. I think we could say that
perhaps 48% of Americans were ignorant or greedy enough to vote for Bush in 2004. That's quite a bit.
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Quakerfriend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 04:39 PM
Response to Original message
9. You may wish to go directly
to the office where voter registration rolls are kept and inquire as to who/when they may have given the info. to these reporters.

I suppose you may have already tried this. :shrug:
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 05:45 PM
Response to Reply #9
23. I don't think that it's reasonable to think that Blackwell's office
will be of any help in this matter.

That would be like asking the fox what he did with the chickens.

Anyhow, that's the office that is giving us the numbers that are so inconsistent with the articles written by the reporters whom I referred to in my post. And they've been singularly uncooperative with any efforts to obtain information from them. In fact, even John Conyers can't get him to answer his questions.
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melissinha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 04:43 PM
Response to Original message
10. My first reaction was
Storm Blackwell's office. Hook him up to lie detector and see what happens!

We know that all the facts are on our side, but the people which hold these posts over the information are always loyal party hacks. IF we can't change the oversight and demand that independent machines be used, this will happen again and again... we'll lose more money and people to wars and its all over!
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Quakerfriend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 04:46 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Oooh! I like that idea!
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longship Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 05:38 PM
Response to Reply #10
21. Blackwell undergoing Lie Detector Test
Fortunately, we have a picture of what that would look like:
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 05:47 PM
Response to Reply #10
25. Yes, but I don't think that storming Blackwell's office will work
Which is why I think that going around him by contacting reporters who have this information is the way to go.
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melissinha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 08:54 AM
Response to Reply #25
63. Never said what I want is realistic
;-) I absolutely know it would be futile... that was just my first instinct.

You are right.... We can also see how today's race goes.... Go Paul!
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 04:56 PM
Response to Original message
14. WaPo article predicting Ohio to be like Florida in 2000
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A62645-20...

There is also information about how the Democratic Party AND the Kerry-Edwards campaign were aware of trouble ahead and WERE fighting hard to make the election fair...
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #14
31. Link doesn't work
I think it's a short cut. Could you provide the whole link please? Thanks.
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 04:07 PM
Response to Reply #31
78. Link worked OK for moi
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 05:41 PM
Response to Reply #78
82. They both work now
Sorry and thank you.

Interesting article.
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Pacifist Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 05:13 PM
Response to Original message
19. But, but, but...
We all know those oodles of people who registered democrat around the country only did so because they wanted to vote for a Democrat for county commission and Bush for president. :sarcasm:

Yes, I know that isn't exactly what your post is saying, but it's a response I've heard to the beating the Republicans took in the registration contest.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 06:06 PM
Response to Reply #19
27. But
Everyone seems to know that the Republicans took a beating in the registration contest, but as far as I'm aware the specific data that proves that has not been made publically availabe -- at least not for Ohio.

I believe that if we could get hold of that data we could prove that Kerry won the election. That's why I need to contact either those reporters or else someone else who has reported on this issue and has the documentation to back it up.
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Pacifist Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #27
34. I know and I whole-heartedly agree with you.
I am not aware of concrete numbers either. Just estimates that usually hover around a 60/40 split Dem/Rep. I'm not even sure where the estimates come from.

Your post just reminded me of several conversations I've overheard recently.
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shelley806 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 10:09 PM
Response to Reply #19
50. I have the pdf file for Florida that I downloaded after the election...
titled "Florida County Voter Registration By Party, October 4, 2004" I don't know how to paste a link for a pdf file; but I have it if any one wants it...shows same story as Ohio...No one seems to care; not then, not now.
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longship Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 05:33 PM
Response to Original message
20. Keep the pressure up.
Recommended.
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LittleClarkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 05:41 PM
Response to Original message
22. Could these reporters have missed quiet GOP registration campaigns
in churches, gun shows and the like?

Plus, how many registrations did Blackwell throw away?
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 06:09 PM
Response to Reply #22
29. I don't think that the reporters could have missed that
because they used official figures as they existed at the time.

What I'm saying is that those official figures appear to have changed since that time -- either through massive purges of voters or simply by manipulating the registration figures.

Those who reported on this may have the documentation to prove that.
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LittleClarkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 07:50 PM
Response to Reply #29
39. It's very good thinking. Kudos to you.
Now to see if we can contact those folks. Maybe someone here has connections.

Recommended.
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geek tragedy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 05:45 PM
Response to Original message
24. There's one fatal assumption about this analysis:
"Assuming that these new voters would have voted approximately in the same manner as the already registered voters in each county"

Everything I've ever seen indicates that people who aren't motivated enough to register themselves but rather get registered by activists with clipboards simply don't have the same turnout rate.

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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #24
30. But that is not what the analysis in the DNC report said
According to that report, increases in voter registration in this election were associated with a greater percent of registered voters who voted -- i.e., greater voter turnout.
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geek tragedy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 07:17 PM
Response to Reply #30
37. There's no doubt that increased registration means more voters
However, this analysis assumes much more than that.

Let's pretend there are two groups of voters:

Group A is the group that registers on their own or that has registered in the past.

Group B is the group that has never voted before this year, and only registered because someone knocked on their door or handed them a clipboard at the state fair.

Now, if a single person from Group B votes, turnout increases. That's the point you were making.

What this analysis assumes is that the percentage of Group B voters who vote is the same as the percentage of Group A voters who vote.

That is an extremely unwarranted assumption, for obvious reasons.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 08:21 PM
Response to Reply #37
40. It's not an assumption
Look at the DNC report. Here is a direct quote, from Figure 12 of Section VI of the report: "for the most part, a proportional increase in registration means an increase in voter turnout". When they use the term "voter turnout" they are talking about number of voters who actually voted, divided by the number of registered voters. So, in this election, increases in voter registration meant not only increases in the total number of voters, but increases in the percentage of registered voters who voted.

Your hypothesis is quite plausible. But that's not the way it worked in this election. Apparently, these new voters were not so reluctant after all.

Here is the link: http://a9.g.akamai.net/7/9/8082/v001/www.democrats.org/...
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geek tragedy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 07:19 AM
Response to Reply #40
58. Link's not working. I'll try to find it on my own--sound interesting.
:toast:
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snot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 06:07 PM
Response to Original message
28. Time for Ch., I assume you've already tried just googling
the two reporters? I get a lot of hits on them--they're certainly still publishing in various places--have you tried to contact them through those other websites?

(Sorry if I'm suggesting what you've already done.)
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #28
32. I get lots of hits when I Google them
But I have a real hard time figuring out from that how they can be reached. Well, I'll try some more.
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paineinthearse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 06:46 PM
Response to Original message
35. What can we do now?
Ask the junior senator from Massachusetts when he will act on his 11/3/04 www.johnkerry.com website post that he would not concede until "every vote is counted".

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shelley806 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 07:13 PM
Response to Original message
36. If Kerry doesn't care, please tell me WHY WE SHOULD???...n/t
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 08:26 PM
Response to Reply #36
41. Election reform as an issue is much bigger than John Kerry
We're not doing this for John Kerry.

The future of our democracy depends on whether or not we can reform our election system.
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Jane Austin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 02:17 PM
Response to Reply #41
74. Amen to that!
n/t
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NoBushSpokenHere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 07:31 PM
Response to Original message
38. kick n/t
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Mountainman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 08:35 PM
Response to Original message
42. I wish we would spend as much time preventing it in the future as we do
trying to prove it happened in the past.

Maybe these findings will lead someone to plug the holes but after the election what difference does it make.

Like FL in 2000, people will believe what they want to believe no matter what the facts are. The election will not be overturned and Kerry will not be president.

I am so pissed at Kerry for saying, every vote will be counted. He meant after it no longer mattered!

Fuck it, If there isn't voter rights protections put in place soon the repukes will do it again in 2006. They are getting good at it by now.

I believe Kerry got the most votes or at least more people set out to vote for him than set out to vote for Bush.


But the effect is the same no matter what. We have a repuke government and that's that.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 08:55 PM
Response to Reply #42
44. Here's why I think it's important to expose what happened
1) Meaningful election reform is absolutely needed in this country, but it is an uphill battle. Republicans in Congress are stonewalling all efforts at meaningful election reform. Only a great amount of pressure from the people of this country will get them to move on this. And I believe that providing good solid evidence that Kerry lost the election only because of massive election fraud will provide the motivation of our population that is needed to make this occur.

2) By understanding better HOW the election was stolen we can better target our efforts at election reform.

3) Exposing the election theft should significantly reduce the political influence of the current Administration, thereby preventing them from doing more damage than they already are. It could also make Bush and Cheney more susceptable to impeachment.
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 07:50 AM
Response to Reply #44
60. great reassons--yet there is the attitude of ---time to move on-the past
is past-attitude in this country (trickle down from the Administration). sorry to be a pessimist--but who is listening?---besides a few dedicated souls such as Conyers (and Keith Olbermann who did a lot of reporting on this issue).
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 08:02 AM
Response to Reply #60
61. Yes, I just don't understand it
Maybe our Democratic leaders feel that it's politically necessary to not make too many waves. It must be very difficult to be a politician when the MSM is against you.

But I'm afraid that if we don't push this issue we'll never have another Democratic Congress or President or Judiciary.
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politicasista Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #42
75. Nice Rovian talking points
:rofl:
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 08:42 PM
Response to Original message
43. Excellent. Thanks, Tfc. Nice piece of work. There are so many
contradictions to be teased out of this whole election imbroglio. This is another excellent avenue of inquiry.

:thumbsup:
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 10:36 PM
Response to Reply #43
51. Thank you Bleever. I hope that if we keep on looking for, exposing, and
pounding away at the various contradictions, sooner or later the whole web of deceit will come unravelled.
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Tigress DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 09:37 PM
Response to Original message
46. Gonzales has given Ohio a clean sweep, DNC has rolled...
There are figures somewhere about many voters in Ohio showing up and voting down line, but not for President.

Selective purging and (the widespread malfunction reported where the machines would NOT accept a Kerry vote, it turned it down to 3rd Party or gave it to Bush, and many people voted but couldn't get it to take their legal vote.

Then there is the manipulation of precincts which resulted in people casting provisionals that weren't counted. Registered voters show up, but can't vote - taking them off the final record.

Blackwell the Blackheart.



I hope people who voted for Kerry in Ohio show up on Blackwell's doorstep with signs saying, "You DIDN'T COUNT MY VOTE!"



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newscott Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 09:54 PM
Response to Original message
48. This is all easily dismissed by the Republicans
using the "Chicago" defense.

Blackwell et al can claim they were mostly fraudulent attempts to register bogus voters.
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 09:57 PM
Response to Reply #48
49. Someday though newscott...
...They'll get busted.



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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 06:13 AM
Response to Reply #49
56. Yes they will if we keep on fighting
The Republicans can spout off all the lies they want. And the MSM can keep protecting them. But if enough evidence piles up we can bring them down.
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AuntiBush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-01-05 11:02 PM
Response to Original message
52. This and Majorly More Proof of Voting Tampering Proves it All!
Hey FReeper(s) Republicans: How do you hold your heads so high and call yourselves true Americans, when you got to know by now your leaders STOLE their way in!

Where is the outrage from the Evangelicals? How about some good old-fashioned "American Pie" outrage for your fellow Americans?

But read above: You can make it up to your country by reading that last part which says what you can do. Awaiting a real American hero to step-up to the plate... How about it "NY TIMES?"
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burrowowl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 12:02 AM
Response to Original message
54. Results from NM
investigation, just might do something.
Go google Greg Palast and New Mexico.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 07:17 AM
Response to Reply #54
57. That's interesting
I just recently received some data from New Mexico -- Santa Fe County. What do you know about what's going on there?
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slor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 05:36 AM
Response to Original message
55. Keep us posted please...
because I believe your post accurately describes what happened in Ohio. I live in Cincinnati, and I always get to the polls at opening time. I never had to wait to vote EVER, but in Nov. 2004, I not only had about a 45 minute wait, but it was a wait in the midst of what can only be described as a party atmosphere, with people that were quite vocal about sending a certain smirking chimp back to crawford. It really was great, and I was both surprised and proud. Keeping this in mind, I have never had any doubt that this election, as in 2000, was stolen, and it would also not surprise me if these 2 reporters were "disappeared".
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 12:15 PM
Response to Reply #55
70. Yes, I've heard that kind of story before
It seems that everyone from Ohio whom I've heard from has some similar story to tell.

I did volunteer work on election day in Harrisburg, PA. They had everthing so well covered that they could hardly find any work for me to do. And everyone seemed so confident. I was really shocked to see that Kerry won PA by 1 or 2 percent. That was another one of those states with a huge discrepancy between the exit poll and the official vote count.
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we can do it Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #70
76. Here's another one
more of the same in Summit County Ohio....I worked almost every day on the Kerry campaign - had tons of requests for new voter registration. I was out all day election day as Voter Protection Aid, got high fived all day only a few people looked disgusted as they passed by. People were standing in 2 hour + lines in the rain (a lot of first timers, too) and said it didn't matter as long as we got rid of *... we also had a lot of people who came looking for where to vote - they had been given incorrect info, etc. We were called by people supervising about 30 minutes before the polls closed - the man said he was getting pretty much the same news from everyone - we thought we had done it.....WHAT the HELL HAPPENED????



:wtf:
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 04:13 PM
Response to Reply #76
79. What the hell happened indeed
The issue that I describe in this thread relates to only one type of fraud used in Ohio. This alone, I strongly believe, accounted for Bush's entire margin of victory. But there were plenty of other tricks up their sleeves as well.

Reading the responses from DUers on this thread make me even more confident that Kerry did indeed win Ohio.
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nicknameless Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 08:37 AM
Response to Original message
62. I think your second link needs an "L" at the end, which is probably
obvious to those who are more computer savvy than I am. (Sorry if I'm pointing out something that doesn't need to be.)

You're doing fantastic work! Please keep us updated!
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 12:05 PM
Response to Reply #62
68. Thank you for pointing that out.
I certainly will keep you all updated. Hopefully there will be something good to update before too long.
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PATRICK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 09:26 AM
Response to Original message
64. Kate Zernicke
is mentioned in unflattering terms in other stories such as trashing the court martialed soldier who goes too far beyond the NYT version of the truth about iraq, etc. An emotional stooge for the victorious coup regardless of what ever other work she has done. It is best to google individual reporter names and know who you are looking to for help.

Which brings to question that other great source of analysis, the DNC people themselves and their sources. They seem to want to color up or disappear "rude" misgivings about possible high treasonous sabotaging of democracy as badly as any patrician propagandist in the media. You have to get to other lesser known drones not so enamored of this game, get the documentation etc.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 12:08 PM
Response to Reply #64
69. Do you have anyone in mind?
I don't know who else to go to.
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PATRICK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-03-05 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #69
89. You have Palast
who loudly and publicly revealed the massive thefts in the early voting. If they can't network and make a difference I certainly know no magic whistleblowers and intrepid reports better than that. These are thefts out in the open. Trying to get MORE evidence to satisfy an rigged burden
of proof(or even legitimate questioning!)calls for some grim and thankless digging indeed. Most of us here rally around the minority reports we can see. Again I ask, if the DNC is so weak in its own expert
investigation of Ohio, what better or more effective information is available to the commons?
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Griffy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 11:05 AM
Response to Original message
66. So.. anyone left that still thinks bush won?
it still amazes me that people can see all the evidence available and still think bush won, and I'm not just talking DU information, but Conyers book and other websites... I'd love to hear why anyone thinks bush won, what makes you think that?!
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jillan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 01:27 PM
Response to Original message
71. If it was proven, without question, that Kerry won
And there was a massive uprising in the streets like there was in the Ukraine, AND the power of this country was turned over to Kerry...

Would all of the Kerry-critics support him? Would they be happy?

I for one, would be the happiest person in the world.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 02:01 PM
Response to Reply #71
73. I would be extremely happy
Although I believe that Kerry made the wrong decision in choosing not to pursue this more vigorously, and although I do not understand his decision, I have never harshly criticized him for it.
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we can do it Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 03:46 PM
Response to Reply #71
77. Me Too
I will be shouting in the streets. Please god let this nightmare be over.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 01:56 PM
Response to Original message
72. UPDATE -- Good news -- for now
Someone just pm'd me with the address and phone numbers of the two reporters. She obtained them from switchboard.com, which I had never heard of before.

I feel that it is best to start off with a letter, rather than a cold phone call. So my plan is to send both reporters a letter, wait about two weeks, and call them if I don't hear from them.

I will get this letter in the mail this afternoon:

Dear Mr. Fessenden/Ms. Zernike,

I am writing to you as a concerned American citizen.

When George W. Bush won Ohio in last years Presidential election I was very surprised, given various reports I had heard about the political situation in Ohio, especially your excellent September 26th, 2004 report in the New York Times, A Big Increase of New Voters in Swing States.

Consequently I have extensively studied the Ohio election, and eventually I came to the conclusion that the new voter registration situation for Ohio depicted in your article was not consistent with a Bush victory in Ohio. So I then checked the official Ohio voter registration figures listed on the Ohio Secretary of States web site, and I found that those figures are most inconsistent with the situation depicted in your article. I would be happy to share with you my analyses that led to these conclusions if you wish, but for now I want to make this a short letter.

I hope that you can understand my concern about this, especially given the strenuous efforts of high level Ohio officials to prevent a recount of the vote, and their refusal to cooperate in efforts to investigate the election.

In order to help me and my fellow citizens understand what happened in this election, with the goal of learning how to prevent this sort of thing from happening in the future, I would greatly appreciate it if I could speak to you about this. Could you please e-mail me at XXX or call me at XXX at your earliest convenience?

Sincerely,
XXX

I need to add, however, that I would still very much appreciate it if anyone who knows these reporters would help me out -- I am not terribly confident of getting a good response to this.
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 04:36 PM
Response to Reply #72
80. You might want to share the info with Brad Friedman and ...
... suggest he contact them and invite them to participate in one of his "Brad Show" broadcasts. I've emailed K Olbermann a link to this post and suggested he consider doing a show on the topic.

Peace.

www.missionnotaccomplished.us
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #80
81. Wow, that's great!
I will post this on the Velvet Revolution.

I could contact Brett about this, but I don't have Brad's address. Do you have it?
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 05:44 PM
Response to Reply #81
83. Check your email -- nt
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-03-05 04:57 PM
Response to Reply #80
92. Either forum would be wonderful - the DNC report claiming that there
was no widespread fraud in Ohio has done so much damage to the cause of election reform. Its claim of minimal fraud must be publicly rebutted.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-03-05 10:42 PM
Response to Reply #92
93. Yes, the DNC report is so inadequate that I find it mystifying
It's just too depressing to believe that the DNC is complicit. Or even that their ignoring this matter is simply based on a fear of policital repercussions.

Maybe it has to do with the fact that they just don't want to believe what's going on. If you don't believe that something is there you are not likely to look very hard for it, and if it pops up right in front of your face you're likely to miss it. That's my best explanation at the moment.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-04-05 07:37 AM
Response to Reply #92
94. I contacted a close associate of Brad Friedman --
Brett, who is founder (or co-founder) of "Justice through Music" and the Velvet Revolution.

He asked me for the contact information on the reporters, which I gave them, told me that they were "on top of it", and that they would contact the reporters.

Haven't heard back from them yet in about a day and a half.
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Chi Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 07:06 PM
Response to Reply #72
84. A couple of suggestions, just in case.
Edited on Tue Aug-02-05 07:07 PM by Chi
Heya TFC
Contact the big registration collecting groups, such as America Coming Together, and Project Vote. I would think the majority of registrations came through groups like them.

Contact (preferably thru someone here) the Democratic party, or Kerry's people.
I'm sure they have the same info the reporters had.

Sorry if these have already been thought of.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-02-05 07:32 PM
Response to Reply #84
85. Thank you Chi -- No I hadn't thought of some of those ideas
Actually, I'm not real good at knowing where to go for information, and I don't have a lot of contacts, so I've benefited greatly from DUers helping me out with getting a lot of the information that I've used.

Understandinglife has contacted Conyers and Cam Kerry about this, and he's going to contact Keith Olberman. I've had some communication with Voters Unite! and the Ohio Project, and they've been pretty helpful.

Do you happen to have contact info for any of the groups that you mention, or know who would be best to contact the Democratic Party through? If not, I could search for it.

One of the biggest problems is that, although most of these organizations know where to go to get the official data, that isn't what I need now, because I already have that, and it is hugely inconsistent with the information reported by Fessenden and Zernike prior to the election. So, it appears that the information on which they based their reports is what has disappeared.

As you may know, I recently wrote a letter to Howard Dean to complain about the DNC report and ask him to repudiate it, but I haven't heard anything from him in response.
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Chi Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-03-05 07:48 AM
Response to Reply #85
87. I only have what's on their sites....
http://acthere.com /
America Coming Together (888 16th Street, NW, Suite 450, Washington, DC 20006)

http://projectvote.org/index.php?id=116
New York Office:
Address: 88 Third Avenue, Third Floor, Brooklyn, NY 11217
1-800-546-8683

One of them had online stats on the registration drives, though I'm not seeing it now.
I will look again this evening after work.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-03-05 04:21 PM
Response to Reply #87
90. The information put out by Project Vote looks promising
I just wrote them a letter similar to the one that I sent to Fessenden and Zernike, asking them for any relevant information on voter registration in Ohio in 2004.
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Chi Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-03-05 08:01 AM
Response to Reply #85
88. Here is some info from Project Vote
http://projectvote.org/fileadmin/election_administratio...

"Ohio- More than half a million new Ohio voters have registered by the voter registration
deadline this year. These new voters are not yet entered on the voter files. This is more than
double the registration increase seen in 2000."
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-03-05 04:43 PM
Response to Original message
91. Kick - this is such an important thread. The DNC's report on the Ohio
Election, which among other things claims there was no evidence of widespread fraud, MUST be rebutted, and this kind of analysis can be a vital part of the rebuttal effort. Just THINK of what DU experts could do if they were given $500,000 to analyze the Ohio election results like the DNC hacks were!


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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-08-05 09:27 AM
Response to Original message
95. Mark Crispin Miller's "None Dare Call it Stole" in Harpers
talks a little about the registration issue. He notes that new registration was up 250% in Democratic precincts, compared to 25% in Republican precincts.

I don't know what his source is for those figures. It may be the same reporters whom I quote in this thread. In any even, if true and if those figures can be documented, I'm pretty sure that they could be used to prove that only massive fraud prevented a Kerry victory in Ohio.

I am on vacation now and don't have access to my files. I will return on the 18th and use the numbers quoted in Miller's article to calculate how, if true, those registration numbers would have affected the election. I'm almost positive that that would show a Kerry victory.

Then I will write him a letter that discusses this issue, and I will ask him if he can track down the source of those numbers, and/or document them somehow.

What I find so encouraging about this is that this issue is as important to him as it is to any of us, and he may be in a much better position to get the information that we need.

I have not heard back from Zernike or Fessenden yet, though I haven't had access to my mail for the past four days.
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