Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Exit Polls MATCHED Pre-Election polls within 1/7th of ONE percent

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 07:30 PM
Original message
Exit Polls MATCHED Pre-Election polls within 1/7th of ONE percent
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 07:37 PM by TruthIsAll
Exit Polls MATCHED Pre-Election polls within 1/7th of ONE
percent 

 
The final state polls entered into the Election model had
Kerry leading by ONE percent in the national weighted
average:47.88-46.89. 
This is equivalent to Kerry getting 50.5% of the two-party
vote

Exit Polls entered into the model had Kerry leading:
50.60%-49.34%. 
This is equivalent to Kerry getting 50.63% of the two party
vote. 

The difference between the two sets of polls is .13%.
This is LESS THAN 1/7 of ONE percent.

The FINAL Pre-election state polls from Zogby, ARG, et al
EXACTLY AGREED with the Exit polls.

That is, until the polls abruptly turned to Bush at 1AM, Nov
3.

	Final State Polls	       Exit Polls			
	Kerry%	Bush%	K/K+B	Kerry% Bush% K/K+B	Diff
AL	39	57	40.6%	41.00	59.00	41.0%	-0.37%
AK	30	57	34.5%	40.50	59.50	40.5%	-6.02%
AZ	45	50	47.4%	47.00	53.00	47.0%	0.37%
AR	48	48	50.0%	46.60	53.40	46.6%	3.40%
CA	49	42	53.8%	54.00	46.00	54.0%	-0.15%
							
CO	47	48	49.5%	49.10	50.90	49.1%	0.37%
CT	52	42	55.3%	58.50	41.50	58.5%	-3.18%
DE	45	38	54.2%	58.50	41.50	58.5%	-4.28%
DC	78	11	87.6%	91.00	9.00	91.0%	-3.36%
FL	50	47	51.5%	50.00	49.00	50.5%	1.04%
							
GA	42	52	44.7%	43.00	57.00	43.0%	1.68%
HI	45	45	50.0%	53.30	46.70	53.3%	-3.30%
ID	30	59	33.7%	33.50	66.50	33.5%	0.21%
IL	54	42	56.3%	57.00	43.00	57.0%	-0.75%
IN	39	58	40.2%	41.00	59.00	41.0%	-0.79%
							
IA	50	44	53.2%	50.65	49.35	50.7%	2.54%
KS	37	60	38.1%	35.00	65.00	35.0%	3.14%
KY	39	56	41.1%	41.00	59.00	41.0%	0.05%
LA	40	48	45.5%	44.50	55.50	44.5%	0.95%
ME	50	39	56.2%	54.75	45.25	54.8%	1.43%
							
MD	54	43	55.7%	57.00	43.00	57.0%	-1.33%
MA	64	27	70.3%	66.00	34.00	66.0%	4.33%
MI	52	45	53.6%	52.50	47.50	52.5%	1.11%
MN	52	44	54.2%	54.50	45.50	54.5%	-0.33%
MS	42	51	45.2%	43.25	56.75	43.3%	1.91%
							
MO	44	49	47.3%	47.50	52.50	47.5%	-0.19%
MT	36	57	38.7%	39.75	60.25	39.8%	-1.04%
NE	32	61	34.4%	36.75	63.25	36.8%	-2.34%
NV	49	49	50.0%	49.35	50.65	49.4%	0.65%
NH	47	47	50.0%	55.40	44.60	55.4%	-5.40%
							
NJ	50	42	54.3%	52.80	46.20	53.3%	1.01%
NM	49	49	50.0%	51.30	48.70	51.3%	-1.30%
NY	57	39	59.4%	63.00	37.00	63.0%	-3.63%
NC	46.7	50.3	48.1%	48.00	52.00	48.0%	0.14%
ND	35	55	38.9%	34.00	66.00	34.0%	4.89%
							
OH	50	47	51.5%	52.10	47.90	52.1%	-0.55%
OK	28	61	31.5%	35.00	65.00	35.0%	-3.54%
OR	50	44	53.2%	51.20	48.80	51.2%	1.99%
PA	50	45	52.6%	54.35	45.65	54.4%	-1.72%
RI	56	36	60.9%	64.00	36.00	64.0%	-3.13%
							
SC	42	55	43.3%	46.00	54.00	46.0%	-2.70%
SD	42	52	44.7%	37.75	62.25	37.8%	6.93%
TN	47.8	50.3	48.7%	41.50	58.50	41.5%	7.23%
TX	37	59	38.5%	37.00	63.00	37.0%	1.54%
UT	24	69	25.8%	30.50	69.50	30.5%	-4.69%
							
VT	53	40	57.0%	65.00	35.00	65.0%	-8.01%
VA	47	51	48.0%	45.40	54.10	45.6%	2.33%
WA	52	44	54.2%	54.95	45.05	55.0%	-0.78%
WV	45.8	48.6	48.5%	45.25	54.75	45.3%	3.27%
WI	51	44	53.7%	52.50	47.50	52.5%	1.18%
WY	29	65	30.9%	29.00	65.50	31.0%	1.50%
							
Avg	47.88	46.89	50.50%	50.60	49.34	50.63%	-0.13%

 
 
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
matt819 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 07:52 PM
Response to Original message
1. Okay, I'm scratching my head. . .
You've done an amazing job since the election working the numbers, so I don't really question the numbers, though I do have two questions.

First, a clarification. When you say final state polls, you do mean prior to the elction, correct?

Second, what does the K/K+B column represent?

The natural follow-on to the this is the actual vote count. If I read your comments correctly, the final state polls (prior to the election) matched pretty darn closely the exit polls. So far, so good. The problem, of course, is that the actuals differed. Statisticians out there have argued that this is not surprising, necessarily, because of the nature of exit polls (time of day, sampling, etc.) In any case, I think the next columns on this spreadsheet need to show the actual percentages. The problem, of course, is that no one out there in the mainstream media is prepared to do the kind of investigative journalism to get to the bottom of these numbers.

Good work.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msongs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 08:24 PM
Response to Original message
2. I admire your perservence and work and also
wonder just what is the point....any evidence that your kind of documentation is being considered by ANYONE, either in a position of authority or otherwise, with the aim of doing something to prove the election is invalid.

otherwise it is just a fun time with data.


Msongs
Riverside Ca

Political t shirts!
www.msongs.com/political-shirts.htm
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 09:57 AM
Response to Original message
3. am kick
tia
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Sat Aug 19th 2017, 05:46 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC