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4PM EXIT POLL (PRE-HACK) ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 311 EV, 50.6% VOTE

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 01:25 AM
Original message
4PM EXIT POLL (PRE-HACK) ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 311 EV, 50.6% VOTE
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 01:30 AM by TruthIsAll
THIS IS THE TRUE FRAUD-FREE ELECTION RESULT

	Final 4pm Polls			
	Kerry% Bush% Diff	KerryEV
AL	41.0	59.0	(18.0)	
AK	40.5	59.5	(19.0)	
AZ	47.0	53.0	(6.0)	
AR	46.6	53.4	(6.8)	
CA	54.0	46.0	8.0 	55
				
CO	49.1	50.9	(1.8)	
CT	58.5	41.5	17.0 	7
DE	91.0	9.0	82.0 	3
DC	58.5	41.5	17.0 	3
FL	50.0	49.0	1.0 	27
				
GA	43.0	57.0	(14.0)	
HI	53.3	46.7	6.6 	4
ID	33.5	66.5	(33.0)	
IL	57.0	43.0	14.0 	21
IN	41.0	59.0	(18.0)	
				
IA	50.7	49.4	1.3 	7
KS	35.0	65.0	(30.0)	
KY	41.0	59.0	(18.0)	
LA	44.5	55.5	(11.0)	
ME	54.8	45.3	9.5 	4
				
MD	57.0	43.0	14.0 	10
MA	66.0	34.0	32.0 	12
MI	52.5	47.5	5.0 	17
MN	54.5	45.5	9.0 	10
MS	43.3	56.8	(13.5)	
				
MO	47.5 	52.5 	(5.0)	
MT	39.8 	60.3 	(20.5)	
NE	36.8 	63.3 	(26.5)	
NV	49.4 	50.7 	(1.3)	
NH	55.4 	44.6 	10.8 	4
				
NJ	55.0 	45.0 	10.0 	15
NM	51.3 	48.7 	2.6 	5
NY	63.0 	37.0 	26.0 	31
NC	48.0 	52.0 	(4.0)	
ND	34.0 	66.0 	(32.0)	
				
OH	52.1 	47.9 	4.2 	20
OK	35.0 	65.0 	(30.0)	
OR	51.2 	48.8 	2.4 	7
PA	54.4 	45.7 	8.7 	21
RI	64.0 	36.0 	28.0 	4
				
SC	46.0 	54.0 	(8.0)	
SD	37.8 	62.3 	(24.5)	
TN	41.5 	58.5 	(17.0)	
TX	37.0 	63.0 	(26.0)	
UT	30.5 	69.5 	(39.0)	
				
VT	65.0 	35.0 	30.0 	3
VA	47.0 	51.0 	(4.0)	
WA	55.0 	45.1 	9.9 	11
WV	45.3 	54.8 	(9.5)	
WI	52.5 	47.5 	5.0 	10
WY	29.0 	65.0 	(36.0)	
				
	50.60	49.34	1.26 	311
				
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Hobarticus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 01:27 AM
Response to Original message
1. Source?
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proudbluestater Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 01:31 AM
Response to Original message
2. Where did you find this? AWESOME!
Judging by just my own state, the exit poll looks RIGHT ON to what should have been happening in Michigan that day. It matches up to the latest reliable polling data that was done in the state.

Wonder how the other states measure up, according to their last reliable poll?
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intheflow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 01:36 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. Colorado looks right on.
I think the state was actually split about 50/50, and the numbers reflect that.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 01:43 AM
Response to Reply #2
4.  Here is the DATA SOURCE and analysis
I just ran the numbers through my model.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 07:47 PM
Response to Reply #4
28. Correction: The polls are a mix of 4PM and 12AM (for completeness).
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 07:47 PM by TruthIsAll
Since the numbers hardly changed until 1AM, there was no harm done.

The fact is, Kerry was winning the exit polls until 1AM, when strange things started to happen.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 10:18 AM
Response to Reply #2
15. HERE IS THE FINAL NOV. 1 ELECTION MODEL PRE-ELECTION POLLING ANALYSIS
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 10:43 AM by TruthIsAll
Note: Kerry 50.52% 2party% vs Bush is damn close to the
weighted average national 50.6% that he was getting based on
the state exit polls! 

           Kerry%	Gore%            Recent State Polls
St    EV     vs.Bush  vs.Bush                   Kerry% Bush%
AL	9	40.63	42.86	(2.23)		39.0	57.0	(18.0)	
AK	3	34.48	32.18	2.30 		30.0	57.0	(27.0)	
AZ	10	47.37	46.88	0.49 		45.0	50.0	(5.0)	
AR	6	50.00	47.42	2.58 		48.0	48.0	0.0 	6
CA	55	53.85	55.79	(1.94)	55	49.0	42.0	7.0 	55
									
CO	9	49.47	45.16	4.31 		47.0	48.0	(1.0)	
CT	7	55.32	59.57	(4.26)	7	52.0	42.0	10.0 	7
DE	3	54.22	56.70	(2.48)	3	45.0	38.0	7.0 	3
DC	3	87.64	90.43	(2.79)	3	78.0	11.0	67.0 	3
FL	27	51.55	49.95	1.60 		50.0	47.0	3.0 	27
									
GA	15	44.68	43.88	0.80 		42.0	52.0	(10.0)	
HI	4	50.00	60.22	(10.22)	4	45.0	45.0	0.0 	4
ID	4	33.71	29.47	4.23 		30.0	59.0	(29.0)	
IL	21	56.25	56.12	0.13 	21	54.0	42.0	12.0 	21
IN	11	40.21	41.84	(1.63)		39.0	58.0	(19.0)	
									
IA	7	53.19	50.52	2.68 	7	50.0	44.0	6.0 	7
KS	6	38.14	38.95	(0.80)		37.0	60.0	(23.0)	
KY	8	41.05	41.84	(0.78)		39.0	56.0	(17.0)	
LA	9	45.45	45.92	(0.46)		40.0	48.0	(8.0)	
ME	4	56.18	52.69	3.49 	4	50.0	39.0	11.0 	4
									
MD	10	55.67	58.33	(2.66)	10	54.0	43.0	11.0 	10
MA	12	70.33	64.52	5.81 	12	64.0	27.0	37.0 	12
MI	17	53.61	52.58	1.03 	17	52.0	45.0	7.0 	17
MN	10	54.17	51.06	3.10 	10	52.0	44.0	8.0 	10
MS	6	45.16	41.41	3.75 		42.0	51.0	(9.0)	
									
MO	11	47.31	48.45	(1.14)		44.0 	49.0 	(5.0)	
MT	3	38.71	36.26	2.45 		36.0 	57.0 	(21.0)	
NE	5	34.41	34.74	(0.33)		32.0 	61.0 	(29.0)	
NV	5	50.00	47.92	2.08 		49.0 	49.0 	0.0 	5
NH	4	50.00	49.47	0.53 		47.0 	47.0 	0.0 	4
									
NJ	15	54.35	58.33	(3.99)	15	50.0 	42.0 	8.0 	15
NM	5	50.00	50.05	(0.05)	5	49.0 	49.0 	0.0 	5
NY	31	59.38	63.16	(3.78)	31	57.0 	39.0 	18.0 	31
NC	15	48.14	43.43	4.71 		46.7 	50.3 	(3.6)	
ND	3	38.89	35.11	3.78 		35.0 	55.0 	(20.0)	
									
OH	20	51.55	47.92	3.63 		50.0 	47.0 	3.0 	20
OK	7	31.46	38.78	(7.31)		28.0 	61.0 	(33.0)	
OR	7	53.19	50.05	3.14 	7	50.0 	44.0 	6.0 	7
PA	21	52.63	52.58	0.05 	21	50.0 	45.0 	5.0 	21
RI	4	60.87	65.59	(4.72)	4	56.0 	36.0 	20.0 	4
									
SC	8	43.30	41.84	1.46 		42.0 	55.0 	(13.0)	
SD	3	44.68	38.78	5.91 		42.0 	52.0 	(10.0)	
TN	11	48.73	47.96	0.77 		47.8 	50.3 	(2.5)	
TX	34	38.54	39.18	(0.63)		37.0 	59.0 	(22.0)	
UT	5	25.81	27.96	(2.15)		24.0 	69.0 	(45.0)	
									
VT	3	56.99	55.43	1.55 	3	53.0 	40.0 	13.0 	3
VA	13	47.96	45.83	2.13 		47.0 	51.0 	(4.0)	
WA	11	54.17	52.63	1.54 	11	52.0 	44.0 	8.0 	11
WV	5	48.52	46.94	1.58 		45.8 	48.6 	(2.8)	
WI	10	53.68	50.05	3.63 	10	51.0 	44.0 	7.0 	10
WY	3	30.85	29.17	1.68 		29.0 	65.0 	(36.0)	
									
Total	538	50.52	50.27	0.26	260	47.88	46.89	0.99 	322
									

Gore won  21  states with 266 electoral votes            
									
Kerry leads  26  states with 322 electoral votes             
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 10:37 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. 50.52% model vs. 50.60% exit poll!
Note: Kerry's 50.52% 2party vote% vs Bush is damn close to the 50.6% he got based on the weighted state exit polls!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 11:44 AM
Response to Reply #16
19. 11/01 ELECTION MODEL: FINAL PROJECTIONS
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Cessna Invesco Palin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:02 AM
Response to Original message
5. Curious...
And how exactly do you "hack" the vote in those states that don't use electronic voting?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 08:13 AM
Response to Reply #5
13. Hack the mainframe which consolidates the votes.
I'm use use "hack" to mean any type of fraud, whether optical scanners, EVote machines,punch cards - or mainframe software to finagle the count in the precincts..
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AquarianM Donating Member (6 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:31 AM
Response to Original message
6. Petition for the FULL Congress to investigate 2004 vote Fraud
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AquarianM Donating Member (6 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:33 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Trying to correct link:
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AquarianM Donating Member (6 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:34 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. Go here...
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 05:23 AM
Response to Original message
9. I don't understand the numbers in Florida, Nevada or Wisconsin
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 05:26 AM by Awsi Dooger
That source you linked had Kerry trailing in Florida by .1% That's the same margin Steven Freeman used in his PDF. You have Kerry winning by a full 1 percent.

In Nevada, looks like you screwed Kerry out of a win. That exit poll chart, along with Freeman, have Kerry by 1.3%. You list Bush winning your election model by 1.3% and don't have any electoral votes for Kerry at the far right.

In Wisconsin, your number is Kerry by a full 5 points. Both Freeman and this Scoop source have Kerry ahead by .4%.

Otherwise, your margins are identical or within a few tenths of everything on that chart.

For anyone copying this chart, the numbers of Delaware and the District of Columbia are reversed. Nader is not represented so every state totals 100% or thereabouts. The Wyoming numbers are probably supposed to be 68-32%.

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 08:08 AM
Response to Reply #9
12. I'll fix the numbers asap. Thanks.
tia
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 07:43 PM
Response to Reply #9
27. Awsie, the left side shows Kerry vs. Bush in the state polls and
Gore vs. Bush in the actual 2000 vote. Gore lost NV.

I was comparing Kerry in the state polls vs. Gore 2000.
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Reality Not Tin Foil Donating Member (325 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 05:43 AM
Response to Original message
10. There is a 99.95% propability that this election model is correct.
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DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 07:56 AM
Response to Original message
11. kick
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leftie96 Donating Member (6 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 08:19 AM
Response to Original message
14. What about all the people who voted after 4pm?
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Dancing_Dave Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:04 PM
Response to Reply #14
23. I saw later exit polls that didn't change the outcome.
Many sites had them online election night--all pointed this same way.
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DCal Donating Member (170 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 10:42 AM
Response to Original message
17. It looks as if DE and DC data are flipped
I think it should be 91% Kerry in DC and 58% in Delaware.
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fob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #17
18. I noticed that too and was going to post if no one else had. Alas, as is
often the case a fellow DUer is already on it. A question comes to mind though, if you showed that list to 100 random people, how many would know that the results for Delaware and DC appear to be reversed?

I'll give an Over/Under of 2.5
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Chelsea Patriot Donating Member (603 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 12:10 PM
Response to Original message
20. KICK!!! For The Truth!!!
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GoSolar Donating Member (295 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
21. Kick!
:kick:
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hughee99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 01:29 PM
Response to Original message
22. I'm sorry, but
I don't understand how an exit poll that doesn't include many of the 9-5 workers (who hadn't made it to the polls yet at 4pm), is considered "accurate". I went to vote around 11am (my work hours are flexible). I ran into several people who, because I live in a relatively small town and know these people well, I know were voting for Kerry. I didn't see one who I knew would be voting for *. My wife went to vote after 6. I asked her who was there, and most of * voters that I knew were there at that time. I know this in not evidence of anything, but my point is that at certain times of day, certain types of voters are more likely to be there. To take an exit poll from a certain time of day, and exclude any groups that haven't been fully "represented" yet, IMHO is just using incomplete data to try to make a point. I don't think this is the "TRUE FRAUD-FREE ELECTION RESULT". You can believe whatever you want.
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:15 PM
Response to Reply #22
25. It did include them

Exit polls predicted Kerry victory through midnight PST. All polls had been closed for hours.

Keep digging for a rationale. You won't find one, but keep digging.
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hughee99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:23 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. So you're saying that the 4PM EXIT POLL
contained information from people who hadn't "exited" yet? That's the poll we're talking about here, isn't it?
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Dancing_Dave Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:11 PM
Response to Original message
24. Key Evidence
This is some really key evidence showing electoral fraud, but there is more.

To really crack the case, we need to find out where the discrepencies between exit polls and official vote tallies were coming from. What kind of machinery was being used to count and add up the votes where the discrepencies were largest? Who was running them?

People are working on those questions. Everything points toward widespread fraud--especially in Ohio and Florida. We need to bust the criminals involved in this.
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 08:08 PM
Response to Reply #24
29. Kick and Pray
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Hello_Kitty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 08:12 PM
Response to Original message
30. Looks like Delaware and DC are mixed up. n/t
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 09:58 AM
Response to Original message
31. am kick
tia
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ArkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 10:22 AM
Response to Original message
32. We have an old saying in IS/IT
"garbage in, garbage out"
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