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The Exit Polls vs. the Actuals: Who do you believe-CNN or your lying eyes?

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:21 AM
Original message
The Exit Polls vs. the Actuals: Who do you believe-CNN or your lying eyes?
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 12:06 PM by TruthIsAll
	Exit Poll 2PM		Exit Poll 4PM.........Actual Votes		
	Kerry	Bush	Diff	Kerry	Bush	Diff	Kerry	Bush	Diff	BushGain 
AZ	45	55	-10	45	55	-10	45	55	-10	0
LA	43	56	-13	43	57	-14	42	57	-15	1
MI	51	48	3	51	48	3	51	48	3	0
IA	49	49	0	49	49	0	49	50	-1	1
NM	50	49	1	50	48	2	50	50	0	2
ME	53	45	8	55	44	11	53	45	8	3
NV	48	51	-3	48	49	-1	48	51	-3	2
AR	45	54	-9	45	54	-9	45	54	-9	0
MO 	46	54	-8	46	54	-8	46	53	-7	-1
IL	55	44	11	55	44	11	55	44	11	0
										
average	48.5	50.5	-2.0	48.7	50.2	-1.5	48.4	50.7	-2.3	0.8
										
										
ALL THESE STATES SHIFTED TO BUSH BEYOND THE MOE - NO PAPER
TRAIL
AVERAGE BUSH NET GAIN: 6.25%				
		
	Kerry	Bush	Diff	Kerry	Bush	Diff	Kerry	Bush	Diff	BushGain
WI	52	48	4	52	47	5	50	49	1	4
PA	60	40	20	53	46	7	51	49	2	5
OH	52	48	4	51	49	2	49	51	-2	4
FL	51	48	3	50	49	1	47	52	-5	6
MN	58	40	18	54	44	10	51	48	3	7
NH	57	41	16	58	41	17	50	49	1	16
NC	49	51	-2	48	52	-4	43	56	-13	9
CO	48	51	-3	46	53	-7	46	52	-6	-1
										
average	53.38	45.88	7.50	51.50	47.63	3.88	48.38	50.75	-2.38	6.25


See reply #1 to this thread to use these graphics links:

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/Election2004ExitPolls_15021_image001.png


http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/Election2004ExitPolls_15021_image002.png

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/Election2004ExitPolls_15021_image003.png

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:22 AM
Response to Original message
1. Here are the graph links.
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AngryWhiteLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #1
19. NC was NOT a non-paper ballot state! I voted scanable paper ballot.
Durham, NC and surrounding precincts used a very easy to complete paper ballot that was scanned.

I'm sure there were some electronic voting precincts, but NOT the whole state.

There was one issue with the ballots that I found particularly sneaky, though. If you indicated that you wanted to vote a straight ticket, this would ONLY apply to the local, senatorial, and house races and would NOT count towards the Presidential vote. The Presidential vote had to be indicated in addition to the straight ticket.

JB
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Streetdoc270 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 01:26 PM
Response to Reply #19
24. There are a lot of electronic issues in NC
Pender and Onslow counties use electronic voting and there was reported problems in both counties, there are others but those are the locals so I have details on them
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mike from ri Donating Member (214 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:33 PM
Response to Reply #24
42. if a state was part paper and part non-paper, how did that
affect the methodolgy of the above graph?
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R Hickey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 06:59 AM
Response to Reply #19
53. Having a confusing ballot could account for NC's descrepancy in votes
Edited on Sun Nov-07-04 07:04 AM by R Hickey
A trick ballot like that can screw up the election just like a butterfly ballot can. North Carolina's ballot alone could have screwed up the results for that state.

The ommission of the presidental race from a straight-party-ticket-vote would confuse any straight-party-voter who was used to marking the ballot the way he/she had always marked it in the past.

A friend of mine here in Wisconsin may have screwed up his ballot this time around, because he first marked the straight party ticket, then added a few votes to some of the individual candidates listed below. If he'd voted for any Republicans, it would have screwed up his whole ballot.

Because of their odd ballot, I think we should seperate NC out of the black-box election-theft senario.

NC was not 'purple' state, polls always showed they were a red state, so there was not that clear of a motive for fraud there.
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mike from ri Donating Member (214 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:41 PM
Response to Reply #1
45. what constitutes a non-paper ballot?
isn't an optical scan a paper ballot: that is waht i saw usedin nh.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 12:02 AM
Response to Reply #1
50. Kerry ExitPoll/Actual: 48.5/48.4 (paper trail) vs 53.4/48.4 (No trail)
The difference is 0.10% for the 10 paper trail states.
The Exit polls were accurate to within 1/10 of one percent. No problem there.

Kerry LOST 5.0% for the 8 states with no paper trail. Quite a difference, yes?

Baby, baby, where did our votes go?

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flpeach Donating Member (310 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
2. OMG
Exit polls normally are not identical to the vote, but this is RIDICULOUS! They are NEVER this wrong. NEVER.
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in_cog_ni_to Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #2
9. It's ANOTHER MIRACLE of the EVANGELICALS!!
Aren't they AMAZING! GAWD did it again!

So many "first time in history" occurances with this friggin' administration. :grr:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #2
12.  DUERS, BLAST THE MEDIA WITH THIS INFO!
tia
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liberal N proud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #12
25. If only they would listen!
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ParanoidPat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 04:48 PM
Response to Reply #25
34. If enough people let them know that we're on to them.......
.......Heh heh heh. :evilgrin:
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ed_vadem Donating Member (388 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-08-04 03:55 AM
Response to Reply #12
55. your replies are still a bit testy
Edited on Mon Nov-08-04 03:59 AM by ed_vadem
there are people who are asking questions and I gather you dont have access to what Karl Rove had nor do very many people BUT SOMEONE DOES

I have to assume that either the voting process and tabulation and perhaps some BBV were used to corrupt the process OR someone may have corrupted the manner in which the true internals (the raw data) as compiled from the actual exit polls interviews was corrupted.

Eixt polls ONLY have good accuracy WHEN large numbers of interviews and large number of precints are used

The NYT published 10 years of exit polls in the Sunday paper and I think have listed the sampling techniques. Also HOW does the vote AFTER 4 PM get accounted for???? As I understand it NO one after 4 PM is interviewed????? Correct?????

NO state s 100% one method or the other.

The raw internals of exit polling have tobe broken down by urban versus rural and aggreagted to help me become even more convinced.

Also the shift in the White womens vote is 7% towards Bushco.

Also it would be important to break it down by battleground versus non battleground. Whoever have the internal raw data IS THE ENTITY that can do these
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senseandsensibility Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:50 AM
Response to Reply #2
14. The thing that burns me up too
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 12:10 PM by senseandsensibility
is that Schneider and some other media whores are badmouthing the exit polls when they showed Kerry ahead during election day, but USING those same polls to show a Man Date. How obiously biased can you get?
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jdj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:26 AM
Response to Original message
3. thanks and thanks for typing out the links
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 11:35 AM by jdjkkse
I can't wait til they put the links back at the normal length again.

Thanks for all your hard work.

edit: I knew NC was fucked up, even though it hasn't been in the news very much, except for the charlotte commissioners race I posted in LBN yesterday. Eskine Bowles STOMPED Richard Burr in Charlotte, which surprised me alot, so I knew there were more dem votes than that.
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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
4. Wow!
Thanks, TIA! Those graphs are breathtaking, they show very clearly what went on!
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:33 AM
Response to Original message
5. Thanks for the analyses. You may want to label the bars on graph 2.
"Exit" and "Actual." I see you have done that on graph 3.
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:37 AM
Response to Original message
6. Bingo! TruthIsAll


This is it!
Can you send your graphs and statistics to all the major news people?

Randi Rhodes was really speaking from them yesterday.

Is Saturday's Al Franken show a rerun? If so, he is talking with Fieman from Newsweek and he mentions nothing about Fraud.

I listened to CNN this morning and not one peep about FRAUD.
All we are hearing is Mandate, mandate, mandate.

Your visuals and numbers shine a light on this dirty trick pulled by Rove!

Keep it up please, you are a real patriot!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. Why don't you send it out? I will just concentrate on the numbers.
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 11:40 AM by TruthIsAll
tia
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molly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:38 AM
Response to Original message
7. I sent Joe Biden an email, but did not have these stats then
maybe I'll send these to Bill Press - the more the merrier!
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glitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:41 AM
Response to Original message
10. Gonna have to go with my lyin' eyes and you TruthIsAll
Haven't watched CNN once in this millenium (I have a very healthy suckometer).

You do good and tireless work - thank you.
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:42 AM
Response to Original message
11. TIA, you rock my world
It's one thing to know something, it's another to have statistical analysis to prove it.

Thanks for saving my little brain so much work.

:toast:
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Pobeka Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:42 AM
Response to Original message
13. CNN. They would never LIE.
For money, or power or anything like that.

Who would lie for money and power, crooks?

But, these folks go to church, would they lie about their devotion to the teachings of God too?

Hey, wait a minute, there could be a pattern here...
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bloom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:59 AM
Response to Original message
15. Thank you for this!
:)
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baldguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
16. What is the published MOE for these polls?
I've seen 3, 3.5, even 5% stated on some polls before the election. Statisticly, thats just plain sloppy. I can't believe they actually put them out.

If the MOE is 3% or less (except maybe CO), any professional statictician would HAVE to conclude that there's something fishey about the "actual" results.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:08 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. For exit polls, it is less than 1%. They are extremely accurate.
They have always been right on.

The probability they would deviate by more than 3% is:

.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001

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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:46 PM
Response to Reply #17
20. Thanks Truth. I believe that to be case. Do we have data to back it up?
The predictive validity of exit polls, that is.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:59 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. I have no data. But if they are MUCH more accurate than the MOE
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 01:28 PM by TruthIsAll
of opinion polls, which at for 2000 sample have a 2% MOE, then it is a fair estimate.

MOST OF ALL, USE COMMON SENSE. THEY MUST BE MORE ACCURATE.

PEOPLE ARE NOT AFARID TO TELL EXIT POLLSTERS WHO THEY VOTED FOR.

WE ARE TRULY IN THE LOOKING GLASS.

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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 01:20 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. Here is the NY Times Article!
Lex (1000+ posts) Fri Nov-05-04 12:53 PM
Original message
The NYT says EXIT POLLS are used to Protect the Integrity of the VOTE


Why are people just rolling over and discounting what happened?

The exit polls are used all over the world to monitor for voter fraud!

Read what this New York Times article said just last month:

---------------------

Exit Polls to Protect the Vote

By MARTIN PLISSNER
Published: October 17, 2004

WASHINGTON Since the 1960's, the exit poll, that staple of election-night television, has been used along with other tools to declare winners when the polls close in each state, and its accuracy is noted later when the actual vote count proves it right. A landmark exception, of course, came in 2000, when the networks initially gave the decisive Florida vote to Al Gore.

But now exit polls are being used in some places to monitor the official vote count itself, either to validate the outcome or to mount a challenge to it.

That has happened in several countries in the last year, and in the United States one organization plans to use exit polls in five closely contested states in November to measure whether there have been impediments to voting.

Last fall, an American firm, whose polling clients have included Al Gore and John Edwards, was hired by some international foundations to conduct an exit poll in the former Soviet republic of Georgia during a parliamentary election. On Election Day, the firm, Global Strategy Group, projected a victory for the main opposition party. When the sitting government counted the votes, however, it announced that its own slate of candidates had won. Supporters of the opposition stormed the Parliament, and the president, Eduard A. Shevardnadze, later resigned under pressure from the United States and Russia.

Full article here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/weekinreview/17plis.h ...


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GettysbergII Donating Member (664 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 05:05 PM
Response to Reply #23
35. Link to NYT article no longer works
Could you please repost a working link?
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ParanoidPat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #23
36. OOPS! Someone didn't like the article.........
........ Page Not Found


The page you've requested does not exist at this address. Please note:

# If you typed in the address, used a bookmark or followed a link from another Web site, the page is no longer available. Most articles remain online for seven days after publication.

Articles back to 1851 are available through our New York Times Article Archive: 1851-Present. For more information or to start searching, please visit our Archive page.

# If you clicked on a headline or other link on NYTimes.com, you can report the missing page. :(

Did anyone download the page as a "Save as web page, complete" ?
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #36
40. Oops! It was there this morning!
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 05:53 PM by goclark
Article made too much sense to keep it there.
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Eloriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:36 PM
Response to Reply #40
44. I saw it myself -- Ooops! here it is
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 10:41 PM by Eloriel
I saved the print article link. Try this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/weekinreview/17plis.h...

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lessthanjake Donating Member (436 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 12:19 PM
Response to Original message
18. This is suspicious
However throughout the summer we all were saying that the polls were wrong and stupid. Why are they suddenly so right? I mean sure they are exit polls so that makes them more accurate but they still arent a poll of every voter.
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 01:17 PM
Response to Reply #18
22. There is a post here at DU with a New York Times article

that talks about the validity of the exit polls.

The point of the article is that the exit polls are more like a receipt. When they ask a person that exits who they voted for, they are not going to say, Bush if they voted for Kerry.

And of course,I am sure no Bush voter would ever tell a lie and say that they proudly voted for Kerry.

I had never thought of it that way but I believe it.

I wish the search feature was working but as far as I know it is not.

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goodhue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 02:55 PM
Response to Original message
26. But MN has paper trail.
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Lostnote03 Donating Member (850 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 04:16 PM
Response to Original message
27. CIA budgets BIG bucks to manipulate elections...
....This has all come home to roost...
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ClevelandSportsCurse Donating Member (240 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 04:34 PM
Response to Original message
28. Most Ohio counties used paper
So be careful in construing the whole state being electronic. I think 8 out of the 88 counties used electronic machines.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 04:36 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. Eight out of 88 is enough to turn the election. Read Palast
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 04:38 PM by TruthIsAll
Fraud goes beyond BBV. What about the 300,000 provisional and spoiled minority votes (read Palast)

tia
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ClevelandSportsCurse Donating Member (240 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 04:40 PM
Original message
True. Is there a weighted average calculation that can be done?
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 04:41 PM by sph812
Is there exit polling data available for any particular counties? If so, can the discrepancies in the 8 electronic counties be factored into the 80 paper counties to produce how much the whole state results deviated from the exit polling data?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 04:43 PM
Response to Original message
32. A full analysis based on all the data would be a good idea.
tia
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ClevelandSportsCurse Donating Member (240 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 04:43 PM
Response to Reply #29
33. I wonder if the exit polls asked if anyone voted provisionally
The voter would obviously know. The data would sure be interesting to check out if such polling was done.
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burythehatchet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 04:36 PM
Response to Original message
30. Question
Do the bbv machines time stamp the votes? Is it possible to pull the internal logs and segment 15 minute or 60 minute periods and tally just the number of votes in each period?

Here's why I ask, take NC as an example and you will note a 2 pt lead then a 4 pt lead and finally a 13 pt lead. The 9 pt gain is huge. But its very odd when you understand that the 9 pt win is the final. From the period between 4 PM and poll closing the actual diff in the numbers was MUCH greater in order to make the final spread 9 pts.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 04:40 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. I cannot answer that. Contact Bev Harris at Black Box Voting.
Edited on Sat Nov-06-04 04:41 PM by TruthIsAll
I am totally clueless as to the BBV's. Other than knowing that they can be compromised in many ways. This has already been proven. Supposedly, it is a trivial thing to do, once you know how to do it.
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DFLer4edu Donating Member (675 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 05:17 PM
Response to Original message
37. Where are these exit polls coming from?
Where are the hard numbers coming from?
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LiberteToujours Donating Member (737 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 05:20 PM
Response to Original message
38. I'm 99.7% sure that you've posted this before
Or something very similar. If you insist on keeping this up the least you could do is post something new.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #38
48. What's the matter? Does the Truth hurt that much?
tia
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 05:11 AM
Response to Reply #38
52. Don't tell me whator what not to post and I won't tell you.
Edited on Sun Nov-07-04 05:12 AM by TruthIsAll
Quite a presumptuous bloke, aren't you?

With an attitude like yours, you won't make many friends here at DU.

tia
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chemp Donating Member (569 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 05:49 PM
Response to Original message
39. I've had enough!
We have to cheat!
We have to find something, anything, and scream bloody murder about it! The more mundane the better!
We have to make asses of ourselves about it!
we have to "Think about the children."
We have to so sensationalistic that the media would HAVE to cover it!
We have to cheat!
Ignore the war.
Ignore the taxes.
Ignore the corporate scandals.
Ignore the job loss.
Ignore the enviroment.

Find something we would really say, yeah, so?" about and roast him for it.
Make something up if we have to.
Who died recently? where was Laura when it happened?
Does Laura leave GWB alone with the kids?
Does Laura leave GWB alone with the pets?
Does Laura leave GWB alone with Karl Rove?
Does Laura not let GWB party with Jacko as much as she used to?
What does Laura do with his bloody clown outfits?
What is the Secret Service hiding?
Think 1994 and amplify it!
We have to lose congressmen to gain Congress!
Senators have to switch parties in disgust over our tactics in order for us to gain the Senate.

Make examples of all of them.
Find a fringe group and exploit them. I mean REALLY exploit them.
Blacks, Jews, Hispanics, Gays? Not good enough!
Emphasize Bush's attacks on school teachers.
Point out that laura was one and he beats her nightly!
Show documents of phony bruising.

Hey. we're only following their example.
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mike from ri Donating Member (214 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:32 PM
Response to Original message
41. nh had paper ballots, . . .
at least in the precinct i worked. how did your methodology take this into account?

anyone know of any non-paper ballots in nh? are there parts of nh where they use touch-screen? if so, where?
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sundog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:34 PM
Response to Original message
43. they kept saying "we're not concentrating on exit polls this year"
:wtf:
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mike from ri Donating Member (214 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 10:44 PM
Response to Original message
46. MN, NC, NH are all reportedly paper trail states . .
according to bloggers here. please explaing why you categorize them otherwise.
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Spiffarino Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #46
54. I know of no paper trail in Buncombe County
We have Sequoia machines. Never got a receipt or saw any printouts. To anyone who is familiar with these machines, do they have a printer attached?
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Laelth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:26 PM
Response to Original message
47. Looks like the optical scan machines ...
are the ones the R's targeted for fraud, because it's so easy to change the actual vote totals in the database that's basically just an excel spreadsheet. There is a paper trail for those. But you've got to get a recount in order to expose the problem.

This site shows how the optical-scan machine in Florida produced some disturbing results, and I think we'll see that the op-scan machines were the principal tool for what seems to be the blatant theft of this election.

-Laelth
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Strive to be Dust Donating Member (25 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-06-04 11:33 PM
Response to Original message
49. GOP Attack machine is after DU!!
I live in Japan and "The Japan Times" which is the most widely read English Daily here printed an article in which an alleged expert from Carnegie-Mellon Univ. essentially calls us UFO conspiracy freaksfor doubting electronic balloting. The article is datelined from 'The Baltimore Sun'. Does anyone know anything about the origins of this claptrap?
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lebkuchen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-07-04 04:49 AM
Response to Original message
51. what does "beyond the MOE" mean?
Edited on Sun Nov-07-04 05:11 AM by lebkuchen
on edit: margin of error

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