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9/19 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 248 EV, 49.47% VOTE, 14% WIN PROB

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:14 AM
Original message
9/19 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 248 EV, 49.47% VOTE, 14% WIN PROB
Edited on Sun Sep-19-04 08:37 AM by TruthIsAll
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ClintonTyree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:16 AM
Response to Original message
1. Great..................
now you'll put a certain faction of DU into full panic mode.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:28 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. DU already knows Kerry is behind. I will not refrain from
posting just because of this.

You will all love it as the numbers begin to move in Kerry's favor.
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ClintonTyree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:39 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. I'm not saying.....................
that I'm in panic mode, but there are more than a few here that are. I'm well aware that these polls will slowly but surely turn in our favor, but I get tired of hearing "the sky is falling" folks, that's all I was inferring.
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HootieMcBoob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:27 AM
Response to Reply #1
15. it wasn't that long ago that a Kerry victory
was in the 90% area. Just means we have to work harder.
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mikehiggins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:17 AM
Response to Original message
2. I looked at the data
Now my head hurts.

Are we still winning?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:28 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. Obviously, as of today, no.
tia
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underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:46 AM
Response to Reply #5
11. Up from 2% just yesterday right?
:shrug:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:01 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. No, I never had the prob at 2%.
I alluded to Professor Sam Wang's excellent model and provided a link. Usually we are pretty close.

One difference is in our assumptions. I assume that Kerry will get 60% of the undecided as a base case. Professor Wang doesn't. So my results are a little more optimistic than his.
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olddem43 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:20 AM
Response to Original message
3. TIA - this is not like your old posts - please refrain until you can
do something positive. I'm afraid that the Repugs have tried to create a self-fulfilling prophecy and will be successful if we buy it. I'm going to keep working until Nov. 2nd to elect Kerry.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:30 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. Sorry. No can do. I post the good and the not so good.
The Kerry comeback will be all the more sweet as we track his progress.
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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:31 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. i disagree completely. tia has integrity.
he loses his well-earned integrity if he avoids or distorts when the news is not as we might wish.

that said, some comentary is always welcome, and tia may wish to explain why the numbers change from day to day or week to week.

e.g., "my model uses an average of recent polls, some of which have themselves been suspect lately. consequently, the results of my model may be distorted as well. if other polls confirm the heavily republican-biased recent polls, then these numbers will gain credibility, otherwise, they should return to earlier, more favorable numbers for kerry."
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ISUGRADIA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 02:28 AM
Response to Reply #3
16. This is if the election were HELD TODAY
which it is not. The 14% calculation could easily turn to 60, 70, 80, 90% by the begining of October after the first debate and based on events during the campaign. The calculation is only for the one moment in time. While I have argued about statistical interpretations of data with TIA in the past, he is being correct in his interpretations of the data based on his model.


I'd agree with him also the improper weighting of Rep voters is skewing the polls towards Bush. If this was 14% on October 27th, I'd be worried. Then again, Gore was down 14 points in the Gallup Poll on that date four years ago and we all knw how that turned out 8^).

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ISUGRADIA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 02:28 AM
Response to Reply #3
17. This is if the election were HELD TODAY
which it is not. The 14% calculation could easily turn to 60, 70, 80, 90% by the begining of October after the first debate and based on events during the campaign. The calculation is only for the one moment in time. While I have argued about statistical interpretations of data with TIA in the past, he is being correct in his interpretations of the data based on his model.


I'd agree with him also the improper weighting of Rep voters is skewing the polls towards Bush. If this was 14% on October 27th, I'd be worried. Then again, Gore was down 14 points in the Gallup Poll on that date four years ago and we all knw how that turned out 8^).

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DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:43 AM
Response to Original message
9. Thanks, TIA, and PLEASE continue your unvarnished calculations --
burying heads in sand is never the answer, nor is sailing that famous river in Egypt.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:44 AM
Response to Original message
10. Mods, my error: I will move to 2004 GD. Please lock.
tia
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Swamp Rat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:47 AM
Response to Original message
12. Good link
thanks
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radfringe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:06 AM
Response to Original message
14. only 'reporting' the 'good'
Edited on Sun Sep-19-04 09:07 AM by radfringe
is something bush* does while wearing his rose-tinted glasses

we need to know the good and the bad to be able to assess situations and events

Keep up the good work...even if the news isn't all that good :)
:thumbsup: to TruthIsAll
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dbt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 04:25 AM
Response to Original message
18. Props, TIA
PLEASE keep your analyses coming, both good and bad. With you and Zogby, we can all get a truer picture of what's coming!

:bounce:
dbt
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