Reply #7: I'd be interested in seeing support for the view that the Congressional results were "disastrous"

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The repubs had picked up 54 House seats two years earlier. They had a terrible presidential candidate. The shutdown severely damaged Gingrich's reputation and standing both with the public and with his own caucus and that had the effect of damaging the "contract with America." But the shutdown had de minimis impact on the 1996 elections. Clinton won, which would have been the case even without the shutdown. And the repubs still added to their Senate majority and suffered only small losses in the House. It would be another decade before the Democrats could recapture the House, which tells you something about how little impact the shutdown really had on the 1996 and subsequent elections.