Reply #82: It'd be nice but

[Juche]

I have been hearing this strategy for years now. I think it is just projection.

I agree 2012 will be different. In 2012 non-whites will be about 29% of the electorate and millennials will be about 22%. There is obviously some overlap, but both groups barely showed up in the midterms (millennials were about 12%, nonwhites maybe 20%). So 51% in 2012 vs 32% in 2010 of the electorate (again, the real numbers will be lower due to overlap) being fairly liberal will see different results. Also consider that at least in the senate many races we lost were squeakers. The GOP barely won senate seats in Illinois, PA & Wisconsin. Mildly higher non-white and millennial turnout would mean 56 senators. If anything, turnout among millennials and nonwhites will be higher than in 2008, when they were about 18% and about 25% respectively. It'll be closer to 22% and 29%.

But I don't think Obama has a strategy. My impression is the 2 year deadine was something the GOP probably wanted because they figure they'll win in 2012, and even if they don't they can just 'blackmail' the economy again.