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Reply #56: Here's why he was wrong [View All]

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dave_p Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-14-07 05:55 AM
Response to Reply #16
56. Here's why he was wrong
"Tell me why my Dad was wrong to be happy. Go ahead. Try"

Because invasion was becoming increasingly unlikely regardless of the bombs. Your Dad didn't know that. Most of the Generals didn't even know it. But the top policymakers did. They hardly talk about invasion after mid-1945, even before most knew about the Bomb. MacArthur had been directed to draw up a plan for peaceful occupation as early as May, and by July US communications intercepts revealed that the Emperor and Cabinet wanted peace. Military hardliners disagreed: that's discussed here (start of subthread).

"One million of them, at least" is a later fabrication of the plausible US losses in an invasion. Apart from one memorandum unconnected with the planners, the million figure (or anything higher than isn't mentioned anywhere except in subsequent justification of the bombings. The Joint Chiefs of Staff in April projected 376,000 dead, but later estimates for the Kyushu landing indicated a far lower rate. In the event, Soviet intervention on the mainland destroyed Japan's strategic and diplomatic position as US analysts had foreseen.
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