Reply #18: Funny analysis. Don't the Market up, market down "All is well"ers balance out the "doomers"?

[pampango]

I'm sure that 6 months ago the "doomers" pointed to continuing market collapse as proof that "WUR DOOMED" while the "All is well"ers thought a rebound would come, as it always has (even in the Depression). Now the WELLERS point to 6 months of stock market rise as proof that "All is well" and the "DOOMERS" believe another market decline is coming as it always has in the past.

I remember a comment making fun of economists to the effect that a particular one (perhaps mythical) had predicted 8 of the last 3 recessions and a similar number of recoveries. If I predict a collapse (or a dramatic increase) in the stock market, I will always be right if I make enough predictions and wait long enough. I could have predicted a rising market all through 2008 and early 2009 and I would have been wrong until I was right when it turned around in the spring. Since March I could have predicted a fall in the stock market and I would have been wrong until I am right when the market declines, as it will.

Both the "DOOMERS" and the "WELLERS" have good fundamental reasons why the market will do what they think it will. And whichever turns out to not yet be right (never admit you're wrong :) ) a few months from now, will probably have a good reason, consistent with their beliefs, why they are not yet right.