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Reply #200: Actually, I discount foresight. I think it's impossible to know what the economy needs next. [View All]

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eallen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-08-07 07:49 AM
Response to Reply #189
200. Actually, I discount foresight. I think it's impossible to know what the economy needs next.
There is a larger component of luck in entrepreneurial success than many want to admit. That doesn't matter to its beneficial effect on the economy. By focusing on the individual, you keep missing the aggregate effect I'm pointing out. Every few years, millions of new ventures are started, combining in different ways the business and technological processes from the last generation of business, with a few new elements. Most of those prove to be less effective at delivering consumer or upstream value than either existing businesses or their new brethren. And fail. The few that survive have discovered something important for advancing the economy. "Discovered" not necessarily in the sense of some individual going "aha," but in the sense that other genetic algorithms are also a discovery process.

There is no existing method to predict which of those will succeed, because the information required for that is too dispersed, and rarely articulated prior to the ventures being started. You're stuck on wanting to praise or blame those who fought their way to the top. Lamarckian. I'm pointing out that the rapid evolution of business and technology is less about individual actors than it is about the aggregate process.

Hockey sticks don't just happen. There are reasons for them.

:hippie:
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