Reply #10: That's why my assessment in more optimistic (for Dems) than theirs

[Time for change]

They average the last 5 polls, no matter how long ago they were taken. If you combine several polls taken over several months the results will be a conclusion that is misleadingly slanted towards the Republicans, because the Dems have come on very strong in the past several weeks. That's why I think it's more realistic to just look at the last 10 days (unless no polls taken during that time) than the last 5 polls regardless of over what period of time.

I think that AZ 5 is most likely a Democratic win, based on the last poll (I see only one poll, but if he's winning in the last 2, that's even better.)