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Reply #19: Very interesting that the precinct-level data has NOT BEEN RELEASED! [View All]

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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-27-06 07:15 AM
Response to Reply #11
19. Very interesting that the precinct-level data has NOT BEEN RELEASED!
The data they released allows researchers to correlate voter characteristics (race, age, sex, etc.) with voting preferences -- but it was not the data that identified specific exit poll results with specific precincts. That data remains the property of the media consortium (ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox, CNN, and the AP) that commissioned the polls. No one has provided a coherent account of how polling error could explain the discrepancy. We have only the pollsters' blithe assertion that Kerry voters must have disproportionately participated in the polls. Yet the available state-level data contradicts the pollsters' explanation, also termed the ``reluctant Bush respondent" theory. The data does show that key variables -- racial makeup of a state, partisan control of governorships, whether a state is a swing state, and reports of Election Day complaints -- all correlate with the magnitude of the poll discrepancy.

The report also indicated that for rural and small-town precincts -- the only ones where comparable data does exist --the difference between the exit poll results and the official count is three times greater in precincts where voters used machines than in precincts using paper ballots alone. If we had access to the withheld precinct-level data, we would be able to investigate whether the size of the exit poll discrepancy correlates with the voting technology used.
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