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Those who thought the immigration debate was a Rovian trick... [View All]

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WilliamPitt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-09-06 11:22 PM
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Those who thought the immigration debate was a Rovian trick...
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Edited on Tue May-09-06 11:23 PM by WilliamPitt
...were wrong. Dig it:



Look at that. Stare at it. Let your eyes drift down to the box in the lower left corner. That's 26%. 26%.

26%.

I said this a while back but it got drowned out: the rise of the immigration debate was the single worst thing, at the single worst moment, that could have happened to the GOP coalition. It is the San Andreas fault line between the business conservatives and the movement/fundie conservatives. When this issue came up, that fault line slipped, and we are still rocking and rolling from the aftershocks.

The business conservatives, of course, want an ocean of super-cheap labor they don't have to offer health care bennies to, so they wanted the Senate bill. The movement/fundie conservatives want a thousand foot wall built around the country, and every undocumented worker sent away in leg irons, and so they backed the Sensenbrenner bill in the House. These two positions are totally irreconcilable, and unutterably dangerous to the GOP.

The business conservatives provide the cash, so they are essential to the coalition. The movement/fundie conservatives provide the blood, sweat and fanatacism that has helped a minority party achieve near-total political dominance, so they are essential to the coalition. Now they are at each other's throats, and Bush's weirdly aerobic straddle on the issue pacified neither side.

26%.

Remember Pat Buchanan? He ate Bush Sr.'s lunch in the New Hampshire primary in 1992, and split the right with the help of Ross. Pat came back again and broke Dole's whole show into tiny splinters, in the same state, in 1996. Both Bush and Dole spent waaaaaay more than they could afford fending off Pat, and wound up as meat on the slab when the deal finally went down.

Both times, Pat was demagoguing for the movement/fundy position on immigration. This issue can shatter this coalition, and has deeply undermined it already. And it isn't going away.

This isn't about what I think of the immigration issue. This is a straight political analysis.

This debate should be celebrated. Not because of the content, but because it is happening in the first place.



Dig it.
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