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Reply #73: Oops--error in the back-calculation formula--here's a better calc [View All]

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jwmealy Donating Member (35 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-03-04 06:23 PM
Response to Reply #70
73. Oops--error in the back-calculation formula--here's a better calc
Based on the tabulated results numbers from the NYTimes website, Bush took the national popular vote by a margin of 3,480,122 over Kerry.

Starting with Jon Simon's last thing Nov. 2 exit poll numbers (published on DU list), and comparing them with the NYTimes final percentage numbers for Bush and Kerry, I adjusted each state's vote totals to the hypothetical numbers Bush and Kerry would have received if the exit polls had been correct.

The formula for calculating the estimated vote totals reflected by the exit poll result for a state is:

Bush Result if exit poll is perfect = BushTabResult/(1+RedShift)
Kerry Result if exit poll is perfect = KerryTabResult/(1-BlueShift)
I calculate that the result, under those conditions, would be roughly:

Bush 59,044,574
Kerry 56,905,780

If we totally disregard the "exit poll vs tabulated results discrepancy" in the case of those states in which the tabulated result favored Kerry, and use, in those cases, the tabulated results, rather than subtracting the discrepancy amounts from Kerry's totals and adding the discrepancy amounts to Bush's totals, the results would be roughly:

Bush 58,830,222
Kerry 57,004,209

This result is somewhat surprising to me. Does anyone reach a different result when they run this analysis?
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