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Reply #70: What Happens When you Add the Votes Back In? [View All]

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jwmealy Donating Member (35 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-03-04 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #60
70. What Happens When you Add the Votes Back In?
Based on the tabulated results numbers from the NYTimes website, Bush took the national popular vote by a margin of 3,480,122 over Kerry.

Starting with Jon Simon's last thing Nov. 2 exit poll numbers (published on DU list), and comparing them with the NYTimes final percentage numbers for Bush and Kerry, I adjusted each state's vote totals to the hypothetical numbers Bush and Kerry would have received if the exit polls had been correct.

I calculate that the result, under those conditions, would be roughly:

Bush 59,015,611
Kerry 56,882,112

If we totally disregard the "exit poll vs tabulated results discrepancy" in the case of those states in which the tabulated result favored Kerry, and use, in those cases, the tabulated results, rather than subtracting the discrepancy amounts from Kerry's totals and adding the discrepancy amounts to Bush's totals, the results would be roughly:

Bush 58,804,886
Kerry 56,982,717

This result is somewhat surprising to me. Does anyone reach a different result when they run this analysis?
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