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Reply #133: The probabilities I quote are CONSERVATIVE estimates. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-29-04 07:52 PM
Response to Reply #131
133. The probabilities I quote are CONSERVATIVE estimates.
Edited on Mon Nov-29-04 07:54 PM by TruthIsAll
Because the MOE for exit polls is much smaller than the MOE in standard polls. The corresponding variance (or standard deviation) around the sample mean is also much smaller. Exit polls have been historically much more accurate, all things being equal, than pre-election polls. MUCH lower than ONE percent. Read up on the last three German exit polls.

So all this talk about MOE is basically moot. But not for the reasons you suggest. The MOE's are actually MUCH SMALLER than those I have used. That means an even smaller probability that the deviations could have been due to chance alone.

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