You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login

Reply #133: The probabilities I quote are CONSERVATIVE estimates. [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-29-04 07:52 PM
Response to Reply #131
133. The probabilities I quote are CONSERVATIVE estimates.
Edited on Mon Nov-29-04 07:54 PM by TruthIsAll
Because the MOE for exit polls is much smaller than the MOE in standard polls. The corresponding variance (or standard deviation) around the sample mean is also much smaller. Exit polls have been historically much more accurate, all things being equal, than pre-election polls. MUCH lower than ONE percent. Read up on the last three German exit polls.

So all this talk about MOE is basically moot. But not for the reasons you suggest. The MOE's are actually MUCH SMALLER than those I have used. That means an even smaller probability that the deviations could have been due to chance alone.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC