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Reply #126: obviously you want to keep it as simple as possible [View All]

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c-macdonald Donating Member (61 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-29-04 05:25 PM
Response to Reply #123
126. obviously you want to keep it as simple as possible
but you can't put "simplicity" over "accuracy" when it comes to calculating these numbers.

Using the formula I gave for MOE yields much different results (even though our values don't differ greatly)

My analysis yields 9 states that are outside the MOE, not 16. That changes the results already.

But, like I said before, this analysis is useless because it assumes a normal distribution of the exit poll data and it's very clear that the exit poll data does not follow a normal distribution.
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