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Reply #91: to address your graph... [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
c-macdonald Donating Member (61 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-28-04 02:30 AM
Response to Reply #60
91. to address your graph...
Again, your graph assumes that the exit-poll-to-real-vote comparison follows a normal distribution. If the samples were truly random then this would be the case. But the samples are not random (the precincts are strategically chosen) and people can and do refuse to participate in the polling. Reports have shown that the past few elections have shown Democratically skewed exit polls (both 1996 and 2000, as far as I have read) so really these results may not be as much of an anomaly as we think.

Regardless of what my statistical instincts are telling me, though, I do find it VERY ODD that so many results ended up favoring Bush by so much. I just wish we had that data from Edison/Mitofsky so we could all make more sense of it.

As for other tests, I really don't think doing tests on this data provides any type of real analysis because this data is sketchy and unreliable at best.
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