Reply #68: what it's about:

[thereismore]

Thanks c-macdonald, I can only add that estimations of probability are only as good as the underlying assumptions.

To get back to why the exit polls could be skewed, one reason could be that if the Bush voters have the "F yourself" attitude toward some college kid asking them how they voted, then there will be a Kerry bias in the poll data. Another could be that they were unwilling to publicly say they voted for Bush because of shame. Another reason might be that democrats were so eager to get Bush out that they rushed to vote as soon as possible to get him out of their system, whereas the bushiites waited for rain to stop (remember, it was cold and rainy in Ohio), then went to their nice precincts equipped with ample numbers of voting machines and voted late.

Therefore, exit polls actually do mean nothing, sad to admit. A couple of percent this way or that could well be explained by various biases.

Like I said, we need to focus on the actual votes. I don't believe that
papertrail has been completely erased. I do not believe the machine cartridges (flash memory, what else could they be?) have been erased. We need to make sure that there is still a right to vote in this country for us and our children. This is not about Kerry anymore - it's about the future.

I'll take any help I can right now, be it from GAO or GLibs.