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Reply #15: Noone seems to want to run the "adjusted" numbers [View All]

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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-26-04 11:03 AM
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15. Noone seems to want to run the "adjusted" numbers
Reguardless of the fact that the adjusted final numbers teaked the results to match the final vote, just eyeballing it, there still is probably a statistical story to be had by analysing those numers.

You won't get dramatic impossible odds numbers out of it, but if even if you assume a pro-kerry systematic bias, even in the final numbers, by calculating the average error you can account for this. Then you can calculate the odds that all the battleground states would be on the Bush side (weighting by how much they are on the Bush side). Yes, the massaged numbers are all within margin of error, but there is still a probability curve even inside that margin.

My bet is you'll find that there is still a signifigant improbability even in the numbers that have been massaged. But I don't want to presume to do such an analysis lacking the statistical expertise... won't someone with such expertise tackle these numbers, to give us an absolute lower limit on the improbability?

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