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Reply #4: I realize this post will raise eyebrows, but... [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-26-04 01:37 AM
Response to Original message
4. I realize this post will raise eyebrows, but...
Edited on Fri Nov-26-04 01:50 AM by TruthIsAll
I will be unable to respond to queries, criticisms, trolls, etc. until after I return from a much needed weekend trip on Sunday.

I suggest that those who are so inclined to please check the following before posting replies:
a) exit poll data (4pm numbers)
b) definitions of the probability functions

Let's make sure we are all on the same page as far as the basic stattistical methods used. If you have suggestions, be specific.
If you prefer to use alternative methods, state them - but be specific. In fact, calculate the probabilities using your methods. There are many ways to skin a cat.

One out of four billion odds seems totally unrealistic at first blush. We are all familiar with Dr. Freeman's original 250 million to one odds based on exit poll deivations in FL, OH, and PA. He subsequently dropped the odds down to one out of a million or so.
My calculation is based on 16 states exceeding the MOE and all going Bush's way.

So there is a major difference in the calculation. The odds reflect it.

Cheers,

tia
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