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Exit Polls MATCHED Pre-Election polls within 1/7th of ONE percent [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 07:16 PM
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Exit Polls MATCHED Pre-Election polls within 1/7th of ONE percent
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Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 07:49 PM by TruthIsAll
The final state polls entered into the Election model had
Kerry leading by ONE percent in the national weighted average:
47.88-46.89 
This is equivalent to Kerry getting 50.5% of the two-party
vote

Exit Polls entered into the model had Kerry leading
50.60%-49.34%. 
This is equivalent to Kerry getting 50.63% of the two party
vote. 

The difference between the two sets of polls is .13%.
This is LESS THAN 1/7 of ONE percent.

The FINAL Pre-election state polls from Zogby, ARG, et al
almost EXACTLY AGREED with the Exit polls.

That is, until the polls abruptly turned to Bush at 1AM, Nov
3.

	Final State Polls	            Exit Polls			
	Kerry%	Bush%	K/K+B	Kerry% Bush% K/K+B	Diff
AL	39	57	40.6%	41.00	59.00	41.0%	-0.37%
AK	30	57	34.5%	40.50	59.50	40.5%	-6.02%
AZ	45	50	47.4%	47.00	53.00	47.0%	0.37%
AR	48	48	50.0%	46.60	53.40	46.6%	3.40%
CA	49	42	53.8%	54.00	46.00	54.0%	-0.15%
							
CO	47	48	49.5%	49.10	50.90	49.1%	0.37%
CT	52	42	55.3%	58.50	41.50	58.5%	-3.18%
DE	45	38	54.2%	58.50	41.50	58.5%	-4.28%
DC	78	11	87.6%	91.00	9.00	91.0%	-3.36%
FL	50	47	51.5%	50.00	49.00	50.5%	1.04%
							
GA	42	52	44.7%	43.00	57.00	43.0%	1.68%
HI	45	45	50.0%	53.30	46.70	53.3%	-3.30%
ID	30	59	33.7%	33.50	66.50	33.5%	0.21%
IL	54	42	56.3%	57.00	43.00	57.0%	-0.75%
IN	39	58	40.2%	41.00	59.00	41.0%	-0.79%
							
IA	50	44	53.2%	50.65	49.35	50.7%	2.54%
KS	37	60	38.1%	35.00	65.00	35.0%	3.14%
KY	39	56	41.1%	41.00	59.00	41.0%	0.05%
LA	40	48	45.5%	44.50	55.50	44.5%	0.95%
ME	50	39	56.2%	54.75	45.25	54.8%	1.43%
							
MD	54	43	55.7%	57.00	43.00	57.0%	-1.33%
MA	64	27	70.3%	66.00	34.00	66.0%	4.33%
MI	52	45	53.6%	52.50	47.50	52.5%	1.11%
MN	52	44	54.2%	54.50	45.50	54.5%	-0.33%
MS	42	51	45.2%	43.25	56.75	43.3%	1.91%
							
MO	44	49	47.3%	47.50	52.50	47.5%	-0.19%
MT	36	57	38.7%	39.75	60.25	39.8%	-1.04%
NE	32	61	34.4%	36.75	63.25	36.8%	-2.34%
NV	49	49	50.0%	49.35	50.65	49.4%	0.65%
NH	47	47	50.0%	55.40	44.60	55.4%	-5.40%
							
NJ	50	42	54.3%	52.80	46.20	53.3%	1.01%
NM	49	49	50.0%	51.30	48.70	51.3%	-1.30%
NY	57	39	59.4%	63.00	37.00	63.0%	-3.63%
NC	46.7	50.3	48.1%	48.00	52.00	48.0%	0.14%
ND	35	55	38.9%	34.00	66.00	34.0%	4.89%
							
OH	50	47	51.5%	52.10	47.90	52.1%	-0.55%
OK	28	61	31.5%	35.00	65.00	35.0%	-3.54%
OR	50	44	53.2%	51.20	48.80	51.2%	1.99%
PA	50	45	52.6%	54.35	45.65	54.4%	-1.72%
RI	56	36	60.9%	64.00	36.00	64.0%	-3.13%
							
SC	42	55	43.3%	46.00	54.00	46.0%	-2.70%
SD	42	52	44.7%	37.75	62.25	37.8%	6.93%
TN	47.8	50.3	48.7%	41.50	58.50	41.5%	7.23%
TX	37	59	38.5%	37.00	63.00	37.0%	1.54%
UT	24	69	25.8%	30.50	69.50	30.5%	-4.69%
							
VT	53	40	57.0%	65.00	35.00	65.0%	-8.01%
VA	47	51	48.0%	45.40	54.10	45.6%	2.33%
WA	52	44	54.2%	54.95	45.05	55.0%	-0.78%
WV	45.8	48.6	48.5%	45.25	54.75	45.3%	3.27%
WI	51	44	53.7%	52.50	47.50	52.5%	1.18%
WY	29	65	30.9%	29.00	65.50	31.0%	1.50%
							
Avg	47.88	46.89	50.50%	50.60	49.34	50.63%	-0.13%
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