You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login

Reply #29: depends... [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-10-11 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. depends...
If the canvassed margin of victory ends up being around 0.5%, then in principle a ballot-level audit of 1000 individual ballots could give you about a 90% "confidence" level (see Stark's S4RLA paper, Table 3) -- probably somewhat larger, allowing for some marking errors. But I doubt that a ballot-level audit is feasible in Wisconsin (unless someone could do a Humboldt-style rescan of all the ballots).

Wisconsin has something like 3500 reporting units, a bunch of which reported over 2,000 votes in the gubernatorial election. (I say "a bunch" because it would take a bit of work to get the data file into a format where I could say exactly....) So, on the most conservative assumptions, probably just one or two miscounts could account for the apparent margin. Not much reason not to go for a full recount, on those assumptions. I'm curious what one could get by with if willing to use a within-precinct miscount assumption, although at this point I don't think enough data are available to say. One could do pretty well with maybe a 20% sample, depending on how it was drawn.
Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC