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Reply #40: there go the goalposts again [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-16-10 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #39
40. there go the goalposts again
From "statewide" to "non-statewide" to "close." It just seems remarkably sloppy to me. And I'm not asking anyone to have "faith" in any kind of audit. Yes, I have a hard time conversing with people who seem like they are most comfortable talking to themselves, especially because that isn't what I expect from you.

In California, it works out that if 1% of precincts contain miscount, a 1% simple random sample has about a 92% chance of including at least one miscounted precinct. With sufficiently conservative assumptions, one could shoehorn maybe a 4% miscount into 1% of precincts -- but it would stick out like a sore thumb. Even 0.4% would be hard.

I find that math impossible to reconcile with what you wrote in post 3. You don't seem to be defending post 3, just busting my chops. OK, good luck with that.
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