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Reply #64: defection affects the ratio(s), too [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-04-10 09:44 AM
Response to Reply #59
64. defection affects the ratio(s), too
If one plots Coakley's vote share against Obama's, what stands out is that Coakley's typical vote share is relatively close to Obama's in the localities where Obama did best, but substantially less in the localities where Obama did worst. That's true in both hand count and scanner jurisdictions. That probably has less to do with Democrats staying home than with Obama voters defecting to Brown -- not in Democratic strongholds, so much, but in other places.

I really think the turnout issue has been widely overstated; it's part of the picture, but not the only part, and quite possibly not the most important part.
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