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Reply #15: "what are you going to do, bleed on me?" [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-05-09 11:52 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. "what are you going to do, bleed on me?"
Edited on Sat Sep-05-09 12:38 PM by OnTheOtherHand

Umm, yeah, I suppose everyone who thinks about it knows that there's a correlation between the exit polls and the recorded vote. In fact, everyone who thinks about it should know what I pointed out back in post #3: "pretty much any measure of partisan preference is likely to be highly correlated with any other." That takes care of the correlation you touted. (Yes, of course, late votes are a small fraction of all votes; how does that make your correlation more "RELEVANT"?)

However, you're trying to convince people that the gap between late and initial votes is partly caused by miscount, and that the "red shift" is partly caused by miscount. As I noted in post #9, the near-zero correlation between those variables is strong evidence that at least one of those claims is wrong. As I've noted many times, the near-zero correlation between red shift and change from 2000 is further evidence against your claim that red shift evinces massive miscount; the near-zero correlation between red shift and deviation from your own pre-election predictions is further evidence. You have never had a coherent response to any of this evidence. Instead, you point to other correlations which ought to be high whether or not miscount occurred.

Is anyone seriously supposed to be impressed that after the election, you can come up with some numbers that (to your satisfaction) dovetail with the exit polls, and call those numbers the True Vote? That would be like being impressed that creationists can (to their own satisfaction) date dinosaurs to 3000 BC. Facially, that just isn't a credible argument. No one who cares about the true vote can afford to accept your True Vote based on this flimsy warrant.

But maybe none of this really matters because I'm just being all sneaky and mean and scary. If that's your best card, you might as well play it.

ETA: Let's take a moment to see what TruthIsAll says about his "Election Calculator":
The Election Calculator is a compact, powerful Excel workbook model for calculating the True vote for presidential elections since 1988. The model was created by Internet poster TruthIsAll.

The Calculator determines the number of returning prior election voters based on user input assumptions. For example, to calculate the True 2004 vote, click the "2004" tab. Enter data assumptions (or use the pre-set defaults) for the current and prior election: uncounted votes, voter mortality (defaults are based on Census and mortality tables) and the candidates share of returning 2000 voters (default to the 12:22am National Exit Poll update)....

Since users enter their own input assumptions, they cannot dispute the results....

"Since users enter their own input assumptions, they cannot dispute the results." Houston, we have a problem.
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