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Reply #2: Yes, the NY late vote indicated a Gore bias. But there was NO Kerry bias in 2004. And 2008 ? [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-03-09 06:17 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Yes, the NY late vote indicated a Gore bias. But there was NO Kerry bias in 2004. And 2008 ?
You are right about the 2000 adjustment, it should not have been made.
In 2004, there was ZERO late vote bias.
All the more reason we should have the NY 2008 exit poll, yes?

But it does not take anything away from the full late vote analysis in NY and nationwide. Why anyone would give the post a negative rec? There is plenty of info here which has not been mentioned in the media. It just adds to the accumulated evidence that the election was stolen. Why would anyone on a Democratic forum be critical of evidence which supports their case?

Let's NOT just dismiss the late vote share CORRELATION to the 2004 state exit polls. There was a 0.72 correlation between late state vote shares and the exit polls. For states which had more than 40k late votes, the correlation statistic was a much stronger 0.93, as one would expect (see the OP).

Ok, let's remove the 2000 adjustment:
Gore had 65.4% of NY late votes.
In the NY 2000 unadjusted exit poll, Gore had 61.9%, Bush 33.5, Nader 4.6
Gore's late vote share was 3.5% higher than his exit poll share.
This indicates that NY late 2000 voters were biased in favor of Gore.

In 2004, Kerry won 64.3% of NY late votes.
His GEO exit poll share was 65.1%.
The late voter share matched to within 0.8% of the exit poll.
This indicates that there was NO late vote bias in 2004.

In 2008, Obama won 70.7% of NY late votes.
His recorded Election Day (lever) share was 62.2% and his
His total recorded share was 62.8%.
We don't have the unadjusted exit poll.
There is no 2008 exit poll report.

This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the true vote:
1) the high correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares
2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares
3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial recorded votes

How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerrys late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground and BLUE states.

A false early impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?

Not a single media pundit has ever noted the following:
1) Final state exit polls and a mathematically impossible National Exit poll were adjusted to match the recorded vote.
2) Unadjusted pristine state exit polls were close to the True vote.
3) Final 5 million recorded votes were close to the True vote.

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