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Reply #1: the crucial error appears to be here: [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-03-09 04:14 PM
Response to Original message
1. the crucial error appears to be here:
To compare 2000 to 2004, we compare apples to apples by
eliminating the third-party influence. So we must add back 3%
of the 4.6% third-party share who defected in 2004 to Gores
share and 1% to Bush. Gores adjusted recorded lever share
increases from 59.8% to 62.8% (2.6% lower than his 65.4% late
paper share).

In 2000, Gore had 65.4% of NY late votes.
In the unadjusted exit poll, Gore had 61.9%.
Adding back the 3% who defected to Kerry and Gore had an
adjusted 64.9% lever share.

So, you're saying that we "must" add 3 points to Gore's vote share in the lever returns. And we must add 3 points to Gore's vote share in the exit poll. But apparently we mustn't add 3 points to Gore's vote share in the paper returns.

Nice try, I guess, but the fact remains that the gap between the lever and paper returns is very similar in all three years, whereas you allege that the level of miscount is not.

(By the way, if your analysis here were valid, then it would be fair to conclude that the uniform increase in paper share was just a coincidence -- that, properly "adjusted," it was smaller in 2000 than in 2004 or 2008.)
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